No, you didn’t read that title wrong.
No, the tiers are not composed of just one quarterback.
Bleacher Report writer, Cian Fahey put Joe Flacco in the 7th tier of quarterbacks for the 2015 season. Which is good for the 21st highest projection in the league.
The rank puts him behind Eli Manning, Cam Newton, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill, Sam Bradford, Carson Palmer, and Matt Stafford.
But that’s not the worst of it.
He also projects Jay Cutler, Geno Smith, and Marcus Mariota ahead of him, while putting Flacco in the same tier as RG3, Jameis Winston, and Andy Dalton.
Here is the full list of projections via his Twitter and his comments on each quarterback:
Like I said, don’t want to pick apart someone else’s without putting my own out. This is projecting into 2015: pic.twitter.com/cbSL49NloQ
— Cian Fahey (@Cianaf) July 6, 2015
As Tony Lombardi said to him on Twitter via our Twitter account, just say no to drugs, Cian Fahey.
He says that Flacco’s accuracy was “really bad” in 2014. Here are the completion percentages of quarterbacks who Fahey projects ahead of Flacco:
Click on the chart for the full completion percentage list on Football Outsiders.
Completion percentage courtesy of Football Outsiders – rank entered by writer
While his completion percentage didn’t set the world on fire, it was more than adequate. And not enough to knock him all the way down to the 21st best projection for next season, considering what happened when the passes were complete (which we’ll get into in a second).
Let’s look at the other reason that he states for ranking Flacco so low: decision making. Which, apparently, was even “worse” than his accuracy in 2014.
Click on the chart for the complete interception rankings on the Football Outsiders site.
INT numbers courtesy of Football Outsiders, ranks entered by writer
Would ya look at that! Flacco ranks right in the middle in terms of interceptions of all the guys who Fahey thinks will be better than Flacco in 2015.
Obviously, completion percentage and interception totals don’t give a complete picture. To help to give a complete picture, let’s look at some more advanced statistics.
His Twitter bio says that he writes for Football Outsiders. Let’s take a look at what their two most important rankings, DYAR (Defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (Defense-adjusted value over average) have to say on the matter.
DYAR shows how many yards each QB threw more than a replacement-level player would. Here are the DYAR 2014 rankings of all the quarterbacks that Mr. Fahey has projected ahead of Joe Flacco for 2015 (as well as their overall rankings on the right).
Click on the chart for the complete list on the Football Outsiders site.
Courtesy of Football Outsiders
Eighth best in the league last year.
It would be quite a drop-off if he went all the way down to the 21st ranked quarterback with an offensive coordinator in Marc Trestman who is known for helping quarterbacks thrive, especially in his first year with a team.
DVOA is the percentage that a player played better (or worse) than average. This stat also doesn’t agree with Fahey.
Click the chart for a link to Football Outsiders’ QB rankings.
Courtesy of Football Outsiders
I think we’re starting to get a clearer picture.
Some personal bias is in play here with Fahey. In his B/R Sportswriter profile, Fahey has received badges both in 2011 and 2012 for honorable mention as both a Steelers and Patriots writer.
Maybe he should stick with those teams.
As I looked through this list, a scene from one of my favorite comedies came to mind…
