The loss of Terrell Suggs is so significant that it overshadows the large number of defensive accomplishments in this game.
Let’s review:
Dean Pees called an outstanding game:
–When it became obvious Manning would have great difficulty hitting any deep passes, Pees tightened coverages and showed a bunch of different blitz looks which confused both Manning and the young offensive line. To provide a metric, this game had more players (in total and per pass play) showing blitz and subsequently dropping into coverage (43 dropped to cover on 44 pass plays) than any other in Pees’ tenure. Only 3 other times did the Ravens drop 30+ to cover in a single game (32 vs. Atl in 2014, 31 vs. Pit at home in 2012, and 32 in the WC game versus Ind after 2012).
–The Ravens didn’t use any dime formations (30 standard, 38 nickel in 68 meaningful snaps) and didn’t even go to the nickel on every 3-wide look.
–The Ravens activated just 5 interior defensive linemen for the game (Jernigan and Bilukidi were inactive), yet were reasonably successful in managing snap count (Canty 40, Williams 39, Davis 32, Guy 26, KLM 12). Snaps will be further spread with Jernigan’s return and none of those totals are too high for an occasional game. However, the line did eventually tire (visibly) on the long 4th-quarter drive.
Evan Mathis, one of the best guards in football the last few years, got used like a sock puppet by Williams and Davis:
–UDFA center and CBS darling Matt Paradis was also pushed around by Williams and Davis.
–The interior DL looks like it will be even more scary when Jernigan returns.
Brandon Williams had a huge game of run defense, albeit with minimal pass rush contributions:
–He finished with 7 tackles, 6 of them primary which resulted in gains of 5, 1, 2, 0, 1, 9, and 2.
–Each of the times he made my notes was either penetrating past, or bulling either Mathis or Paradis.
–The Broncos couldn’t effectively handle both Williams and Davis on the field at the same time. Prior to the final drive, the Broncos managed just 20 yards total on 20 such plays. On the final drive the Broncos had 48 yards on 8 plays with Davis and Williams. For the game as a whole that’s just 2.4 yards per play on all Davis + Williams snaps.
Carl Davis had a terrific NFL debut including good play versus the run and significant pass rush contributions. Davis notes included:
–(Q2, 15:00) He beat Mathis cleanly to the outside to pressure Manning. As he held him by the sleeve, Manning made an ill-advised, left-handed flip to Daniels that went for a loss of 4.
–(Q2, 12:16) He held the edge versus a double from TEs Casey and Green as Canty took down Hillman for a gain of 2.
–(Q2, 11:49) Davis held a double team versus Paradis and Mathis as McClellan came on a green dog blitz through the resulting gap to sack Manning for a loss of 9.
–(Q2, 4:51) He backed up Mathis then shed him to tackle Anderson for a gain of 1.
–(Q3, 13:20) He took a double team from Paradis and Vasquez yet was able to bat down Manning’s pass near the line of scrimmage.
–(Q4, 13:08) He worked off Mathis to take down Anderson on an edge held by Guy. While his contribution was significant, Guy ended up on his back yet somehow was awarded the only tackle credit.
–(Q4, 11:42) Davis was sealed by Vasquez on Hillman’s 11-yard run right.
–(Q4, 7:39) Sambrailo drove back Davis to lead Hillman’s 9-yard run.
–(Q4, 7:11) Carl slipped off Vasquez to take down Hillman for a gain of 2.
CJ Mosley and Daryl Smith both played well. First Mosley:
–CJ finished with just 5 tackles, but Davis and Williams were swallowing up ball carriers in front of him. The 5 interior defensive linemen delivered 17 total tackles.
–(Q1, 1:34) Manning isolated Mosley versus Anderson on the outside. Despite getting exactly the desired coverage with a 6-man pass rush, Mosley knocked away the pass on what should have been the Broncos longest play of the day.
–(Q2, 6:08) Mosley rushed from opposite the right slot receiver through a gaping B gap for his first sack.
–(Q2, 3:14) Mosley leapt while double teamed to dissuade Manning from his initial attempt to pass then chased him down as he plodded left for a 2-yard sack to end the drive.
Daryl Smith read Manning effectively and got his hands on 3 passes. The first 2 fell incomplete, but the last (and most convertible interception–Q3, 6:08), popped into the hands of Sanders for a gain of 4. Smith can only cover effectively in small spaces, but he makes up for it much as Lewis did late in his career with understanding and awareness of the desired passing lanes and by reading the quarterback.
The Ravens had a fine collective effort from the secondary:
—Jimmy Smith had a huge game including the pick 6. He shut down both Thomas and Sanders on his side for most of the day. He also had a nice play in run support when Suggs lost the edge (Q3, 8:59)
–Webb played on an island as needed and had tight coverage in short areas in the 2nd half. He wasn’t perfect by any means and surrendered an 18-yard play to Sanders (Q2, 5:24) in zone coverage (soft) and was flagged for a necessary defensive hold (Q4, 7:45) to avoid a big play. On balance, the Ravens should be satisfied for what he provided given he missed the preseason.
–Arrington had 2 effective QHs leading to a TD misfire and a pick 6. In coverage he had difficulty staying with receivers that crossed through his zone or broke to the sideline.
–Lewis overcame a horrible preseason to avoid any serious errors. He diagnosed a short middle flip and took down Daniels for a loss of 4 (Q2, 15:00).
–Hill employed the speed and ferocious hitting he displayed all camp, including 2 tackles for loss in run defense. He had the back end of good bracket coverage of Norwood on a 30-yard route in the end zone (Q2, 0:19) to end the Broncos drive before the half.
The Ravens held their old nemesis Manning to 3.4 yards per pass play and just 3.2 yards per play overall:
–Manning did virtually all of his damage on underneath throws. While the Ravens played too soft at times, I can’t recall a single pass caught behind a cornerback.
–His longest completion (and the Broncos longest play) went for just 18 yards
–The Broncos ran just 1 play inside the Ravens’ 20-yard line
–These were optimal weather conditions for Manning, but I think you could draw a 25-yard arc from the point of release to estimate the limit of his ability to accurately deliver the football.
–The league has been provided a blueprint that may well serve to end his career without another playoff appearance.
The Ravens did not allow a TD on defense, but they scored one:
–I’m going to go out on a limb (without bothering to check) and assert the Ravens have never previously lost a game where the defense provided 1 net TD.
Of course, not everything worked so well:
–Upshaw played 56 snaps and wasn’t effective in coverage or as a pass rusher, but made my notes only for his inability to keep up with 2 crossing receivers. He was used to rush from the inside, both standing and from a 3-point stance a number of times, but did not make my notes for any pass rush events. He did a solid job holding the edge, including a takedown of Hillman for no gain on a stretch right (Q3, 14:04). The injury to Suggs will magnify his contributions, so he’s going to need to provide rock-solid edge setting and some pass rush contribution.
–It seems greedy to say the Ravens should have converted more than “just” 1 pick-6 among 7 passes defensed (1 not credited), but there were a number of high-quality interception opportunities. That’s something the Ravens will need to improve if they are going to win.
–The Ravens eventually succumbed to the altitude and/or heat on the 4th quarter drive where they allowed 11 rushes for 43 yards. Prior to that, they had allowed just 13 rushes for 27 yards.
Note: the snap counts I provide don’t include accepted penalties, kneels, spikes, or special teams plays resulting in a run or pass. As such, they are lower than other published totals. I will also refer to them as “meaningful” snaps.
How will the team proceed with the injury to Suggs?
–It has never been pretty when the Ravens have lost their top pass rusher. The team lost Pryce for 11+ games in 2007, which might be the most similar situation. Combined with a number of injuries in the secondary, and the departure of Adalius Thomas, the team endured a 5-11 season and a drop from 60 sacks in 2006 to 32 in 2007.
— Za’Darius Smith is going to see significant playing time, but he appears to be an answer as a pass rusher, not in run defense. In fact, the Ravens now have 3 one-dimensional OLBs in Smith (pass rush), Upshaw (run defense), and Dumervil (pass rush). Albert McClellan may be their most balanced OLB. Are you scared yet?
— Arthur Brown might be an OLB candidate in some passing situations (I keep thinking he might have been able to blow up some of those WR screens), but I don’t think he could reliably hold the edge.
–Newsome may decide to go to the street or try to make a trade. Whatever course is chosen, it will likely have a significant impact on the fate of the 2015 season.
