This is a weekly series that will attempt to reset expectations for the final win total after each Ravens game. For an explanation of the assumptions, read here.
What went wrong?
Let’s start by filling out the chart with the last entries, then we can examine it in a new way.
Change in expectation due to prior week’s W/L result:
I estimated the Ravens had a 25% chance to beat the Bengals. Since they lost, expected wins are changed by -0.25. With that final change, actual and expected wins converge for the season at 5 and we’re left with just a short purple bar on that chart below.
For the post-Week-17 analysis, the other categories:
* Change in expectation due to emerging talent or scheme
* Change in expectation due to injuries
* Change in expectation due to opponent events
Are all 0, since the Ravens have no more games for prospective adjustment. Here’s what the graph and table look like.
OK, we filled out a chart that has been a painful exercise for a season that began with 9.5 expected wins. We know the Ravens fell 4.5 wins short of my original expectation. What can we glean from it now?
Let’s start by adding up the 4 rows that change expectation. We’ll examine them in reverse order, because it makes things easier to explain.
Change in expectation due to opponent events:
Like several of the adjustments, this is a tale of 2 seasons. In the early going, the Ravens benefited from some opposing QB injuries, most significantly the injury to Ben Roethlisberger. However, as the Ravens’ season was collapsing, their late-season opponents were all playing for a playoff spot or seeding. Under those circumstances, significant volatility of win expectation is the norm. Bill James used to refer to this as the “September Effect” for baseball where bad teams have even lower winning percentages in the final month while the good ones win even more often.
Net, this factor was just a small positive impact on the season (+0.10 wins).
Change in expectation due to injuries:
This was single largest reason for the Ravens collapse (-2.75 wins); however, I’d like to start with the good news.
It rarely occurs that a unit gets healthier as the season unfolds, but the Ravens’ situation at cornerback improved dramatically in the second half. The defensive line also had a terrific health year, with some time missed by Chris Canty the only loss. The depth at the position was not tested, which may have revealed less about 2016 since Kapron Lewis-Moore and Carl Davis saw less action as the season rolled on. Brent Urban returned from IR to a unit that already had an extra man.
Otherwise, the Ravens’ season was defined by critical injuries at the most important positions.
Terrell Suggs’ injury affected the defense on all 3 levels. Elvis Dumervil played through a nagging set of injuries that might have been avoided if the Ravens had the personnel to keep his snap count restricted (he went from 56% of snaps in 2014 to 74% of snaps in 2015). The run defense was not as effective with Dumervil replacing snaps Suggs would have played. Dean Pees didn’t strike the correct balance between the pass rush and coverage until the second half.
The loss of Steve Smith was magnified by the fine season he was having. Breshad Perriman never played a snap in a lost rookie season, which left the Ravens without a deep threat, but lingered as an unresolved impact until Week 11. On the plus side, those injuries forced the Ravens to address their receiving needs and they found some gems on the roster, by trade, and by alteration of scheme to employ more TEs (covered in the emerging talent section).
Joe Flacco’s injury came relatively late and impacted just the final 6 games. Despite the reduced quality of QBs down the stretch, the Ravens had so little left in expected wins for those last 6 games that the injury was less than 25% of the net impact. Had Flacco been injured in Week 1, his would have been the team’s most costly injury.
Partly because of timing and partly because of the quality of backups, I don’t think Justin Forsett’s injury had much impact at all. Because it should not impact him prospectively, and created playing time for Buck Allen and Terrance West, it may actually help the organization make choices for 2016.
Those 5 names (Suggs, Smith, Perriman, Forsett, and Flacco) are the ones pointed to by many analysts, including Jon Gruden. However, another significant injury was Eugene Monroe. It would be wholly unreasonable to say Monroe is a bad left tackle. His play was outstanding with the Ravens in 2013 and he was OK in 11 games during 2014. If you just look at the 2015 games he finished (Cleveland, San Francisco, and Jacksonville), he played well above average (raw score .84, which is an adjusted A- based on those lower-quality opponents). However, he played 95 other forgettable snaps, split over 3 games he left early. In those, his performance could fairly be described as “below the replacement level” (aggregate raw score .53, high F). His play in those 95 snaps was essentially duplicated by James Hurst over 529 more snaps (aggregate raw score .57).
If asked to order the big 6 injuries from most to least impact on the Ravens 2015 won/loss record, I’d make it: Suggs, Monroe, Flacco, Smith, Perriman, Forsett.
Change in expectation due to emerging talent or scheme
I didn’t account for the play of Rick Wagner or Jimmy Smith as injuries, but they were 2 of the team’s biggest disappointments in terms of their play relative to preseason expectations. Whether wagering on games or playing fantasy football, Ravens fans will probably look at Lisfranc injuries through a different lens after 2015.
However, there were a broad set of other non-injury disappointments. C.J. Mosley did not break through as I expected in year 2 and had difficulty both in coverage and getting off blocks. Will Hill was one of the team’s few playmakers, but he finished the season as a part-time player, because he didn’t provide much value on the back end.
My expectations for Kendrick Lewis were low, and he delivered on those. Kyle Arrington was awful, yet kept getting reincarnated at various positions in the secondary. Lardarius Webb was a big risk and John Harbaugh finally was forced to move him to free safety where I think he can help the team more.
On offense, the big disappointment other than Wagner was John Urschel. He got a big opportunity at center with Jeremy Zuttah’s injury, but I can’t say he’s earned a starting job at either C or LG in 2016.
So how is it that the Ravens exceeded expectations in other ways?
— While healthy, Steve Smith was extraordinary
— Forsett played well while healthy
— When Smith and Michael Campanaro were lost, the Ravens got receiving contributions from Chris Givens, Kamar Aiken, and Jeremy Butler as fans forgot about Marlon Brown.
— The young TE group was outstanding and is an area of future optimism.
— Kyle Juszczyk broke through with a big season in year 3.
— Zuttah played well while healthy (I’m tired of saying it, too)
— Brandon Williams imposed his substantial presence on more snaps (68%) than I thought likely or even possible.
— Za’Darius Smith provided a lift for the pass rush as a rookie.
— Tim Jernigan returned from an early-season injury to post a fine year as an interior pass rusher. He needs complements, but will contribute to a top-shelf pass rush with another top edge rusher. His lack of personal-foul discipline can be addressed.
— The acquisition of Shareece Wright solidified 1 outside corner spot to the point where Pees and Harbaugh were comfortable moving Webb to FS.
— Remember when the Ravens’ big problem leaving camp was KR/PR? The Ravens meandered through several return men, but finished with a rookie (Kaelin Clay) and a unit that was 3rd in the NFL in punt return average.
–The special teams in general had a good year. Sam Koch was outstanding. The coverage and kick blocks were terrific. Justin Tucker’s first sub-par year came at a time the Ravens didn’t need him. I can still hear Dan Dierdorf reiterating that Tucker was “30 for 33” prior to his game-winner at Denver in 2012. In 2015, 6 teams made a higher percentage of field goals and Tucker’s 82.5% ranked 21st among NFL teams. Justin made just 4 of 10 kicks of 50+ but the rest of the league made exactly two thirds of such attempts (100 of 150).
–Pees got improved production from a limited set of defensive players in the 2nd half. A better pass rush will increase turnovers, but he needs to find a way to increase second-chance interceptions and second-man-to-the-ball playmaking. Much of that will have to come from new personnel.
–Finally, Harbaugh did a fine job of holding the team together. There was lots of blame to spread and the Ravens didn’t fall apart at the seams.
All of those are prospective changes netted to a small positive impact (+0.05 wins).
Here is my problem with the emerging talent category…It doesn’t help the Ravens for 2016. The Ravens had some talent that emerged this season to fill injury gaps. But they also had a lot of bad news which accrued to players who already have significant cap numbers (Suggs, Monroe, Flacco, Forsett, Steve Smith, Daryl Smith, Jimmy Smith, Webb, Dumervil, Hill). In addition, they have some difficult free agent decisions with Wright, Tucker, and Kelechi Osemele.
Change in expectation due to prior week’s W/L result
This is a whopping -1.90 wins. That’s a huge underperformance relative to my expectations, which were extremely consistent with the gambling public. It’s a combination of a number of factors, both positive and negative, including:
The in-game impact of injuries:
For example, Monroe was injured in Week 1 and left after just 6 plays. He was replaced by Hurst, who turned in one of the worst performances of the season at any position. At the end of Week 1, I made a prospective estimate of how that would impact the Ravens, but the turnstiling he suffered at the hands of DeMarcus Ware had already impacted game 1. Conversely, I think it’s reasonable to say Flacco’s injury had almost no impact on the San Diego game. He was hurt on the final series, but spiked the ball to set up Tucker’s game-winning kick. Perhaps a healthy Flacco could have improved Tucker’s chance to convert with a few more yards, but the difference was minimal. This is not intended as a one-sided category. In the aforementioned San Diego game, the Chargers suffered a slew of injuries.
The ability to adjust to opponents in game:
Pees was quoted as blaming some of the early season defensive problems on execution. There is no question the secondary was limited in terms of talent and hampered by injury. However, they also lacked flexibility, because they had just 1 set of defensive personnel for passing situations. Prior to Week 12, they did not use a single dime alignment, which meant every catch-up passing play was run against the nickel. The base 4-2-5 was used exclusively for 3 games, before Pees started to mix in the 3-ILB package with Orr in Week 4. That provided more pass rush flexibility, but did very little to improve coverage. When you only have 1 defense, opposing offensive coordinators can more easily game plan to beat it, which was done effectively by Oakland, Cincinnati, and Cleveland (Weeks 2, 3, and 5). The Broncos, conversely, did an outstanding job of adjusting their game plan to beat the Ravens by handing the game to their defense.
Net loss to officiating:
The Ravens got an apology from the league for a call that “cost” them a game versus Jacksonville, but poor officiating is magnified by the increasing number of camera angles provided and the fact the Ravens had 14 of 16 games decided by 1 score, 9 of which were losses.
Game management decisions:
I thought Harbaugh had his best season in these terms. I sometimes tell people there are 2 things academic finance people hate: actively managed money and not going for it on 4th and short. Harbaugh was consistently aggressive and mostly effective on 4th down. He eventually adjusted to Tucker’s apparent reduced range. There were also precious few timeouts wasted that came back to hurt the team. By comparison, opposing coaches (Mike Tomlin in particular), made some highly questionable game management decisions that contributed to Ravens wins.
High-leverage plays:
Some people might call this category “luck”, but I won’t. The Ravens didn’t have a terrible year in this category. On the plus side, they had the kick-6 at Cleveland. On the other side, they had Schaub’s 2 huge interceptions at Miami, which cost them a game they dominated.
A failure to make plays:
Any list like this needs a catch-all category to include anything not covered above. The Ravens suffered their only 2 blowout losses versus the Seahawks and Chiefs (.45 expected wins total in those games). It wouldn’t be reasonable to blame much if any part of those losses on poor officiating or game management decisions. Also included in this category is the Ravens’ incredible failure to convert interception opportunities.
After subjective consideration, I’ll spread the shortfall of 1.9 wins as:
Early indications are that Flacco will be back for the start of 2016. However, when filling out their draft board, the Ravens need to consider the QB with 30 TDs, 6 Interceptions, 3,957 passing yards, and a 99.6 rating – the aggregate of all opposing QBs for the 2015 season.
The Ravens have a high-value draft this season and the focus should be on the defense.