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Draft Day Revisited (Stanley vs. Tunsil)

Filmstudy Draft Day Revisited (Stanley vs. Tunsil)

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Offensive Line Model & Notes vs. Dolphins

The arch enemy of Laremy Tunsil provided significant drama to the first round of the 2016 draft.

It was drama in which the Ravens did not want to participate, so they selected the other consensus-highest-rated LT, Ronnie Stanley, with the 6th overall pick.

Like John Harbaugh says, it’s not important who they would have drafted had the infamous pot mask video not surfaced. However, it’s still interesting to revisit the selection at their first on-field NFL meeting.

Score this first one for Stanley. His team won and did not allow Joe Flacco to be sacked. Stanley himself was not penalized and the time and space provided Flacco was solid. Meanwhile, Laremy was penalized 3 times for 30 yards and 3 stalled drives (the stall charge for the false start came on 3rd and 32, so it’s fair to say that wasn’t all his).  He was pushed around by Guy, Urban, Pierce, and Williams, and no doubt had a difficult film session Monday.

I have included scoring for Tunsil at the bottom of this article.

Excluding the spike, the offensive line produced ample time and space (ATS) on 24 of 46 drop backs (52%) for Flacco and 25 of 49 (51%) overall. However, Joe remained focused on getting the ball out quickly and delivered the ball on time early and often, which resulted in his best game of the year. The outstanding line grades are a function both of Flacco and an OL that was penalized for just 15 yards, did not allow a sack, and surrendered just 2 QHs.

By Ample Time and Space (ATS) categorization:

atsmia2

Summarizing his results relative to expectation:

atsvsmia

Summarizing the Dolphins pass rush by numbers and ATS:

passrushdolphins2

Notes:

–The 52% ATS was his 4th best opportunity set of the season, but just above the 6-year average of 51%.

–The numbers both with and without ATS are both well above expectation. As always, the skill position players deserve credit for any special catches or YAC. With all due consideration for Perriman’s electrifying run after the catch, this was one of the best games of Flacco’s career in terms of delivering the football on time and in stride for YAC potential and that drove the Ravens’ fast-paced success in this game.

–Among the 22 snaps that were not ATS, there were again 8 this week where the ball was out quickly, so no lineman was charged with anything worse than a miss. By categorizing those as not ATS, I’m judging that the pocket would not have held up for the full 3 seconds. Several of these were cases where an effective bull rush was in progress as the ball was delivered.

–Perriman’s catch and run (Q4, 12:58) is in a special class. On the surface, it’s similar to Wallace’s 95-yard play versus the Steelers, but that involved an effective stiff arm. Breshad’s was all about vision and the amazing cutback. Safety Michael Thomas may have got a finger on Perriman, but not more. I will be surprised if the Ravens don’t increase their use of crossing throws to both Wallace and Perriman, because they are big play opportunities which don’t require Mornhinweg to find ways to generate extra time and space for Flacco by misdirection or the use of more eligible receivers for protection..

Offensive Line Scoring

The Ravens ran 66 meaningful offensive plays (excludes penalties, 1 spike, and 3 kneels).

Stanley:  Ronnie picked it up a notch after 3 weeks of consistently solid play. He surrendered parts of 5 pressures, 4 of which came at the hands of Dolphins DE Andre Branch, but Stanley generally stayed square with his assignment. Both of his missed blocks were failures to find a block on run plays and not cases where he was beaten. He made 4 blocks in level 2 and pulled once successfully. His highlight was a combination on Suh then Hewitt (Q1, 5:16) which led Dixon’s 10-yard run on 4th and 1.

Scoring:  66 plays, 59 blocks, 2 missed, 3.83 (3 + ½ + 1/3) pressures, 51.33 points (.78 per play). With adjustment, that’s a B. We’re still at that point where every game adds significant information to project his future, and the results/trend since his return are encouraging.

Yanda:  Both he and Dolphins LG Tunsil were playing with shoulder injuries, but Marshal remains a testament to technique and courage. He had a perfect game of pass protection on 46 drop backs (no misses, pressures, QHs, or sacks). I can’t easily sort how often that’s happened in 10 years of doing this scoring, but I’d estimate it’s less than 15 and I would not be surprised if this is the most drop backs for such a game. He made 1 block in level 2, connected on his only pull, and had 1 highlight.

Scoring:  56 plays, 55 blocks, 1 missed, 55 points (.98 per play). His adjustment would put him above 1.00 per play if the system allowed. That’s the first A+ awarded to a Ravens lineman this season (Marshal had a .99 vs. Dallas).

Zuttah:  Jeremy had his second consecutive fine game with an identical adjusted score of .93. However, this game has fewer outstanding concerns, because he missed just 1 block (beaten by Nick Williams) as opposed to 5 (beaten on each) last week. Both of his full pressures came after Flacco had departed for Mallett. The first was a relatively harmless proximity pressure by Mitchell where he received some help from Urschel at LG. Suh also overwhelmed him for a pressure (Q4, 6:41).  He made his only block in level 2. His highlight was a well-maintained seal of Suh to open the hole for Dixon’s 17-yard run (Q4, 7:21).

Scoring: 63 plays, 59 blocks, 1 missed, 2.33 pressures, 54.33 points (.86 per play). After adjustment, that’s a B+ at center.

Ducasse:  Vlad regressed. In addition to a holding call and a false start, he surrendered both QHs allowed by the line. Suh swiped effortlessly past him for the first QH (Q1, 12:21) and Wake beat him outside (Q3, 2:57) for the other. He made 5 of 6 blocks in level 2, but missed his only pull. I did not score him for any highlight blocks.

Scoring:  66 plays, 60 blocks, 3 missed, 1 pressure, 2 QHs, 1 offensive holding, 1 false start, 43 points (.65 per play). That’s an D after a big adjustment for opponent quality.

Wagner:  Rick’s game was a virtual mirror image for Stanley’s. He allowed the same number of total pressure events, including 3 full charges. Of those pressures, 2 were surrendered to Mario Williams who bulled him once for a proximity pressure (Q2, 4:22) and beat him outside (Q1, 3:30). He made 1 block in level 2, but didn’t have any pancakes or highlights.

Scoring:  66 plays, 58 blocks, 3 missed, 3.83 (3 + ½ + 1/3) pressures, 50.33 points (.76 per play). That’s a B after adjustment. We score the game initially using the broadcast video on Monday night, but I review the coaches film on Tuesday when tabulating for the graphs and putting in the (Q, T) references. I have more close pressure calls for Wagner than any other player, because he is effective at surrendering space to the outside and behind the pocket where it does not impact Flacco’s throwing lane. The pressure charge above (Q2, 4:22) is such an example that is tightly graded.

Urschel:  John replaced Yanda at LG for a series, then moved to C for the final series. He made 9 of 10 blocks, which included 3 in level 2. He had a highlight combination to aid Dixon’s 17-yard run (Q4, 7:21) which included the key level-2 block on Gray.

Hurst:  James entered for the final series at LG and made 2 of 3 blocks. He was not used as a 6th lineman/TE.  Boyle played effectively as the blocking TE.

If you’re interested in seeing scoring trends for the players this season, these charts will be updated weekly.

Tunsil:  Laremy has a shoulder injury and appeared to be playing with a brace. Here are the racing form notes for his negative events:

–(Q1, 8:24) Bulled by Pierce for pressure

–(Q1, 3:14) Bulled by Pierce for pressure

–(Q2, 15:00) Beaten outside by Williams to blow up Ajayi RM-1 (half charge)

–(Q2, 2:06) Bulled by Guy for late QH

–(Q2, 2:00) Bulled by Guy for Pressure

–(Q3, 10:53) Held Guy to negate RL14 by Ajayi

–(Q3, 1:35) Flagged for face mask on Guy to negate RM2

–(Q4, 10:56) False start opposite McClellan on 3rd and 27

Of his 7 missed blocks, he was beaten on 5. He had 3 blocks in level 2, 1 pancake, and 2 highlight combination blocks (Q1, 9:06 and Q1, 0:17) which keyed runs of 19 and 14 yards respectively.

Scoring:  58 plays, 45 blocks, 7 missed, ½ penetration, 3 pressures, 1 QH, 1 holding, 1 face mask, 1 false start, 17 points (.29 per play). The Ravens interior DL is a talented rotation, so I make the adjustment .08. That leaves him .33 short of a passing grade at guard, F. There will be more chances to re-evaluate in games where he is healthy, but he’s playing LG rather than LT as a rookie and just imploded against a tenacious unit. Count me as happy the Ravens took Stanley.

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Ken McKusick

About Ken McKusick

Known as “Filmstudy” from his handle on area message boards, Ken is a lifelong Baltimorean and rabid fan of Baltimore sports. He grew up within walking distance of Memorial Stadium and attended all but a handful of Orioles games from 1979 through 2001. He got his start in sports modeling with baseball in the mid 1980’s. He began writing about the Ravens in 2006 and maintains a library of video for every game the team has played. He’s a graduate of Syracuse with degrees in Broadcast Journalism and Math who recently retired from his actuarial career to pursue his passion as a football analyst full time. If you have math or modeling questions related to sports or gambling, Ken is always interested in hearing new problems or ideas. He can be reached by email at [email protected] or followed on Twitter @filmstudyravens. More from Ken McKusick

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