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Promise and Regret

Filmstudy Promise and Regret

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This was a game where the offense did the job.

This was a game where the offense didn’t do the job.

We can make a list of the reasons for each perspective, but it was exciting to see the offense drive 75 yards on 14 plays to retake the lead. However, we’ll ponder all offseason each play that could have changed the outcome, much like any great playoff football game.

I went over the Kyle Juszczyk kneel option in the article on the defense. You can download the spreadsheet here and play with the assumptions if you like.

I’ll put 1 more kneel bug in your ear…Let’s say the Ravens had made the FG on the fumbled snap in the first half and the Ravens trailed 24-23 as they were driving 3rd and 1 at the Pittsburgh 10.  Do you think the order would have gone to the huddle (by no later than 3rd down and 1 at the 10) that no one should score and the game be left up to Tucker if a first down was achieved?

Ample Time and Space (ATS)

The offensive line produced ample time and space (ATS) on 22 of 46 drop backs (48%).  The 2 sacks allowed (1 charged to the line) were both of the knockdowns.

By ATS categorization:

atspitts

Summarizing his results relative to expectation:

atspitts2

Summarizing the Steelers pass rush by numbers and ATS:

atspitts3

Notes:

–The line has now provided Joe Flacco exactly 50% ATS over the last 4 games.  The Steelers, like the Pats, blitzed from the slot, safety, and linebacker to generate free runners. That included 10 separate instances of 2-man coverage drops from the LoS.

–Flacco’s season ATS remains 46%, well short of the 6-year average of 51%.

–Joe had 7 passes I scored as ball out quick (BOQ), a fairly typical number. Of the 17 pressure events manufactured by the defense, 12.5 were charged to the offensive line.

Offensive Line Scoring

The Ravens ran 71 meaningful offensive plays (excludes penalties and the fumbled FG snap).

Stanley:  Ronnie won the rematch with James Harrison handily. After a low F in his return from injury in Week 9, Stanley allowed just a single pass rush event, a pressure that triggered Dupree’s sack (2/3 charge, Q2, 8:36). He was beaten on 3 other occasions (twice by Harrison and once by Shazier) when the ball was out quickly (BOQ).  He had 6 blocks in level 2, including a burst into level 2 to lead Campanaro’s 23-yard sweep left. That wasn’t a jet sweep, but it’s still unusual to see a left tackle move upfield so quickly that he can lead such a play. He pulled successfully on his only attempt and had 1 pancake.

Scoring:  71 plays, 66 blocks, 4 missed, 0.67 sack, 62 points (.87 per play). With adjustment, that’s an A. Since returning, his grades by game are F, C, C, C, B, A, A-, A.  After his last meeting with Harrison, I was concerned over its implications.  No doubts currently linger about Stanley’s future. We can simply enjoy the ride.

Yanda:  Marshal delivered a highlight-laden performance that equaled or exceeded every other game in a career of fine play against the Steelers. I scored him with just 1 negative event, a pressure surrendered to Harrison (Q4, 4:02) on the go-ahead touchdown drive. Marshal typically gets a short paragraph, but we’ll savor the highlights from this one:

–(Q1, 2:11) Combination on Walton then Davis

–(Q2, 9:42) Sealed Shazier in level 2 to lead Dixon RR17

–(Q2, 2:16) Pancaked Shazier on pull left

–(Q3, 9:35) Pancaked Timmons in level 2

–(Q4, 4:44) Tracks down Timmons to pancake in level 2 from across the formation on Dixon RR4

–(Q4, 1:25) Maintained block on Shazier from LoS into L2, pancaked him, and pinned him to the ground to lead Juszczyk TD RM10

He had 6 total blocks in level 2, 4 pancakes, and made his only pull. While the Steelers fielded a mediocre defensive line due to injuries, Yanda’s highlights all involve outstanding level 2 blocks.

Scoring:  71 plays, 69 blocks, 1 missed, 1 pressure, 67 points (.94 per play). After adjustment, that’s his second A+ and just the second awarded to a Ravens lineman this season.

Zuttah:  NT Javon Hargrave proved too difficult for Jeremy to handle. Despite playing 63 of 71 snaps (an absurd total for a NT that was necessitated by injuries), Hargrave beat Zuttah 7 times (1 penetration, 6 pressures).  Here are the time references for your review: (Q1, 6:43), (Q1, 5:59), (Q1, 1:33), (Q2, 11:41), (Q2, 3:00), (Q4, 7:16), (Q4, 7:00).  Jeremy also missed 8 blocks, but only 2 of those were cases where he was beaten on a BOQ. The others were primarily failures to make a block in level 2, where he connected on just 4 of 8 blocks. He held Shazier on a pull right to negate a 14-yard run by Dixon (Q3, 4:13).

Scoring: 71 plays, 56 blocks, 8 missed, 1 penetration, 6 pressures, 1 offensive holding, 36 points (.51 per play). At center, that’s a fall-off-the-table performance which is 20 points shy of a D- after adjustment, F. Hargrave will be an ongoing concern in this rivalry.  I don’t believe the Ravens can enter the 2017 season without a stouter anchor at center.

Ducasse:  Vlad rebounded with a fine game. He allowed a pressure to Hargrave on the game’s final play (Q4, 0:04), which was his only negative event. He had 1 pancake and made 4 blocks in level 2. Those included his highlight, a kickout on Timmons (Q2, 9:42) to lead Dixon’s 17-yard run.

Scoring: 71 plays, 66 blocks, 4 missed, 1 pressure, 64 points (.90 per play).  A. Both he and Yanda benefited from the injuries on the Steelers offensive line.

Wagner:  Rick continued to play well. He allowed the right side of the pocket to compress on Dupree’s sack that began with Harrison’s bull of Stanley (Q2, 8:36). I gave him 1/3 of that sack, the equivalent of a pressure. He allowed 2 other full pressures to Harrison, one on a bull and another when beaten inside. He made 2 blocks in level 2, but did not have any highlights as I scored it.

Scoring:  49 plays, 44 blocks, 2 missed, 2 pressures, .33 sack, 38 points (.78 per play). That’s a B after adjustment.  It will be interesting to see who the Ravens shut down in Week 17, but Wagner is a candidate even if cleared through the concussion protocol.

Hurst:  James played well in relief of Wagner. He allowed a full pressure when bulled Harrison (Q4, 2:05) and another half charged when he became entangled with Dixon (Q4, 15:00). He did not miss any blocks, made 1 block in level 2, and did not have a pancake or highlight.

Scoring:  22 plays, 20 blocks, 0 missed, 1.5 pressures, 17 points (.77 per play).  That’s a B- after adjustment and makes the 20-snap minimum for a grade.

If you’re interested in seeing scoring trends for the players this season, these charts will be updated weekly.

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Ken McKusick

About Ken McKusick

Known as “Filmstudy” from his handle on area message boards, Ken is a lifelong Baltimorean and rabid fan of Baltimore sports. He grew up within walking distance of Memorial Stadium and attended all but a handful of Orioles games from 1979 through 2001. He got his start in sports modeling with baseball in the mid 1980’s. He began writing about the Ravens in 2006 and maintains a library of video for every game the team has played. He’s a graduate of Syracuse with degrees in Broadcast Journalism and Math who recently retired from his actuarial career to pursue his passion as a football analyst full time. If you have math or modeling questions related to sports or gambling, Ken is always interested in hearing new problems or ideas. He can be reached by email at [email protected] or followed on Twitter @filmstudyravens. More from Ken McKusick

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