Draft Day Surprises

Flacco Drafted

You’ve heard it many times before that the NFL Draft is an inexact science and the industry that it has spawned and all its mock drafts are equally inexact.

Each NFL team attempts to learn from previous mistakes, fighting the urge to pass on the best players available while reaching for need.

And while the science is inexact, teams continually attempt to refine the process and make it even more scientific, more measurable so that their investments pay dividends.

Besides the hours of scouting, interviewing and researching thousands of prospects over the course of 8-9 months, teams like the Ravens reexamine their processes and study what went right and what went wrong on draft weekend and the days that follow when recruiting undrafted talent.

The Ravens staff even studies body types over history. Is there a certain build that matures ideally after the college years – one that morphs into a more desirable and prototypical body type that parallels the more successful types of Pro Bowlers?

Best player available or need has long been debated but today new criteria are being implemented and refined. Psychological tests are used to determine a player’s coach-ability and intestinal fortitude that helps them overcome adversity, something that is unavoidable in the NFL.

Despite desirable physical traits can the player adapt to a team’s system or might the player have to adjust? Adjustments take time and until the system clicks for the player, they’ll play slower and consequently less effectively.

All of these questions and more make a complete crap shoot out of mock drafts. Yet they keep coming in droves and even the naysayers consume them if for no other reason than to mock the mocks.

The pioneer of the mock draft industry and for that matter, NFL Draft coverage in general is none other than Baltimore’s own Mel Kiper, Jr. Some may claim to be better but make no mistake about it, Kiper is the benchmark, the standard against which all other mockers are measured.

Whether he is the reigning champ in terms of accuracy is debatable. What isn’t debatable is that every year there are draft surprises. Players with first round grades slip while others show up during Thursday night of the draft and leave some scratching their heads.

The Ravens pick of Joe Flacco in 2008 probably left many outside of Baltimore with puzzled looks on their faces. But the Ravens liked him, didn’t want to risk losing him and consequently moved back into Round 1 after trading out to land their franchise quarterback with ‘08’s 18th overall selection.

On draft day like in life, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.

Here’s a look back at Kiper’s Final 2013 1st Round Mock Draft presented on April 24, 2013 and how the picks actually played out. Eight (25%) of the picks (in bold) projected by Kiper as first rounders slipped out of Round 1.

Screen Shot 2014-04-23 at 10.03.40 AM

This entry was posted in Blog View, Featured, Lombardi's Way by Tony Lombardi. Bookmark the permalink.

About Tony Lombardi

Tony Lombardi
Tony is 24x7 Networks, LLC's founder (the parent of EutawStreetReport.com and RussellStreetReport.com) His work has been featured on various sports websites and he is a regular guest on 105.7 The Fan. A diehard Fab Four fan, Tony is a frustrated musician who thinks beating on the steering wheel is akin...more

7 Raves on “Draft Day Surprises

  1. Dominic K. on said:

    “consequently moved back into Round 1 after trading out to land their franchise quarterback with ‘08’s 18th overall selection.”

    They never moved out of round one in 2008. They moved back to from 8 to 26 and then back up to 18, but never out of the first.

  2. Rxdoxx on said:

    And we can give him a pass on Cyprien who went #33 it was a tossup figuring out which the Ravens liked more, Kiper had 4 of his 8 misses in the first 7 picks of round 2

    Justin Hunter #34
    Te’o went #38
    Geno Smith #39
    Woods #41
    Minter went #45
    Hunt #53
    Lacy #61

  3. Ravcolt on said:

    I thought the original ‘mocker’ was Ringo, who when asked if he was a ‘mod’ or a ‘rocker,’ replied he was a ‘mocker.’

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Hot off the street

VINE: Steve Smith Blows Up Robert Alford

Through every game this year, Steve Smith Sr. makes you even happier than you were last week that he is a Raven. This week, he blew up a Falcon's DB on a block as he was coming across the field. Vine ...read more

TV GEEK: The WORST Broadcast Team on TV!

I've been writing TV Geek articles since the beginning of the 2013 season and I must say this is the worst broadcast team that I've experienced. By far and by a landslide.  This broadcast had me s...read more

TALE OF THE TAPE: Will Hill’s Ravens Debut

The Baltimore Ravens have the best scoring defense in the league (14.9 points per game), but a much-anticipated addition to the defense that occurred on Sunday could make the defense even better. ...read more

Behind Enemy Lines: Will Cincy Be AJ Green-less?

Cincinnati Bengals Mission impossible without Green The Bengals are struggling without star wide receiver A.J. Green and it has cost them their AFC North division lead as they were embarrassed by ...read more

FANTASY LINKS: Trade For Forsett…Do It

15 Fantasy Football Transactions for Week 8 JJ Zachariason from numberFire loves Justin Forsett so much, he thinks you should trade for him. Find out why and 14 more transactions for week 8 here. ...read more

View More