Plus Fantasy Sleepers, and Notes
I crunched the statistics going back to 1983 for the fantasy leagues that I have managed. Most were 12 to 14 team leagues with six teams making the playoffs. Just 16% of teams starting the fantasy year 0-3 made the playoffs. If you have not won yet, you, pay close attention!
If you are unbeaten so far, trust me the odds are you will lose this week…
Winning Advice
Rams at Bears, With running back Matt Forte out this week, Michael Bush will get the majority of touches, but Bear RB Kahlil Bell will get his share also, he is a great play against a Ram rush defense that is allowing 5.5 yards a carry and appears to me to be as bad at tackling as the 1981 Baltimore Colts, the worst defense in NFL history… Bills at Browns, The Browns are awful against the pass and will not have defensive back Joe Haden, they have allowed 25 fantasy points to quarterbacks in each of their first two games, pick up Ryan Fitzpatrick and start him, he will easily be in the top ten for scoring quarterbacks this week…Buccaneers at Cowboys, these are semi sleepers, Buccaneer RB Doug Martin will have a big fantasy day… stick with TE Jason Witten, there is no need to go the waiver wire, Tampa Bay is allowing 400 passing yards a game….
Jets at Dolphins, Jet running back Bilal Powell will get points on the ground and in the air this week, by mid season he will be starting in front of Shonn Greene…49ers at Vikings, if the Colts Donnie Avery can have a 100 yard receiving day against the Vikings then San Francisco wide receiver Randy Moss should be able to score some points as his reunion tour of the NFC makes a stop where it all started for him… Chiefs at Saints, saint running back Pierre Thomas is a must start against a Chief run defense that is allowing 142 yards a game on the ground, the Saints need to win and will take a more conservative approach against a team they know they are more talented than, Saints will run first Sunday…Bengals at Redskins, the Redskins have allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks this year, Bengals’ quarterback Andy Dalton who now has a reliable slot receiver in Andrew Hawkins will have a solid fantasy day…
Lions at Titans, do not give up on running back Chris Johnson, head coach Mike Munchak made a huge mistake in starting Jake Locker over Matt Hasselbeck, but they will recover from that and things will get better, Johnson will start getting back on track Sunday against the NFL’s most overrated team, the Lions…Jaguars at Colts, everyone knows the Jaguars always run all over the Colts, that may be true again, but this week Colt running back Donald Brown has a good fantasy day against a Jaguar run defense that is allowing 169 yards a game rushing…Eagles at Cardinals, the Eagles are an undisciplined joke, the Cardinals win this easily Sunday, I am not a Chris Wells fan, but he should score multiple rushing touchdowns from the spread formation when the Cardinals get inside the five yard line…
Falcons at Chargers, Falcons are 5-0 lifetime in San Diego dating back to 1973, a 41-0 Falcon victory, this is a classic match up and probably the last of elite fantasy TE’s from this past decade, Tony Gonzalez vs Antonio Gates, their statistical battle defined drafting of fantasy football TE’s for almost a decade, to me it has a John Unitas vs Bart Starr, Peyton Manning vs Tom Brady, or Steve Young vs Troy Aikman feel to it, or in a broader scope Frazier vs Ali, each should find the goal line this week, but the difference is San Diego running back Ryan Matthews, Falcons are the best team in the NFC but this week Matthews scores against their run defense that is allowing more than 130 yards a game…
Houston at Broncos, tough fantasy match up all the way around, seems like only the top draft picks should be started, although I like Ben Tate to break a big run, Arian Foster will get most of the snaps but later in the game, after Houston wears down the Bronco run defense, Tate scores perhaps what will be the only rushing touchdown of the day…Steelers at Raiders, just like last week if this were the mid 70’s this is the game of the week, I want to say Raider running back Mark van Eeghen will have a big day, but I am drifting back to high school…the 2012 Raiders have just two sacks and no interceptions, even Ben Roethlisberger can score against this defense without turning the ball over, this might be his best statistical game of the year…
Patriots at Ravens, Bill Belichick comes back to Baltimore the city where his coaching career started, 1975 Baltimore Colts, needing a win , Wes Welker owners need some points, they should get them, Welker should play a big part in the Patriots game plan facing a Baltimore defense that is not doing much…Packers at Seahawks, Seahawks are not that great, Packers running back Cedric Benson defies the statistics and scores..
