What are realistic season stats for McNair?

[Fanman]

Here are his avges for the last 3 seasons. In 2004 he missed several games, but none the less he could get hurt this year so I included that year in the final average:

McNair 3 year avgs: 2003 - 2005
YEAR Yrds / Cmp %./ YPA / TD / INT / Rate
2003: 3215 / 62.5 / 8.04 / 24 / 7 / 100.4
2004: 1343 / 60.0 / 6.25 / 8 / 9 / 73.1
2005: 3161 / 61.3 / 6.64 / 16 / 11 / 82.4

AVG: 2573 / 61.3 / 6.98 / 16 / 9 / 85.3

I am hoping for better than avg year from SM this year, but those numbers above would be far better than what we had w/ Boller/Wright over the same time period.

Thoughts?

FM

[Mista T]

If he continues to throw only the little 5 yarders to Heap and Mason and dumpffs to the RBs, I expect to see his overall rating in the 85-90 range, YPA around 5.5 to 6, completion % in 65-70% range. Because it's the Ravens, expect about only a dozen TD passes. Based on preseason performance to date, I would also expect a dozen interceptions, but more likely he will shake that tendency and wind up with only 8 to 10.

:mrt:

[camdenyard]

Realistics stats?

10-6, maybe 11-5.

[AZRAVEN]

Based on the Ravens profile, I would expect his numbers to be lower than his recent averages. He is basically going to be handing the ball off to Jamal, and doing little third down dumpoffs (hopefully not 4 yards short of what we need to convert). A few mid range passes to pull some defenders out of the box, I don't expect us to become a big passing team. I figure his TD count will be down and his interceptions will be up a little.

[UKRavenStockers]

Stats I care about from McNair this year:

- Wins
- Third down conversion percentage
- Yards on first down

That's the most obvious improvements I can think of this year.

[Heap86]

I would say maybe 17 TD's and 9 INTS. I think we will see McNair throw deeper passes once the real playbook is used, but the Offense will still be centered around the running game.

[Mobtown]

If he continues to throw only the little 5 yarders to Heap and Mason and dumpffs to the RBs, I expect to see his overall rating in the 85-90 range, YPA around 5.5 to 6, completion % in 65-70% range. Because it's the Ravens, expect about only a dozen TD passes. Based on preseason performance to date, I would also expect a dozen interceptions, but more likely he will shake that tendency and wind up with only 8 to 10.

:mrt:


Careful T, that was a borderline pro-McNair post. :D


I expect 3000 yards or so, maybe more if he finds his groove with Heap and Clayton. 16-18TDs and 11 or 12 picks. The numbers are consistant with what he has put up in the recent past and if the OL can give a few seconds to look things over, there isn't a secondary in the league he can't score on.

[RavenTD]

I would hazzard a guess at.

2500yds-2800yds 14-18 TD's, 9-13 Int's.

Whatever the stats just get us the "W" Steve.:thumbup:

[Mista T]

Careful T, that was a borderline pro-McNair post.

I'm neither pro or anti any individual player. I'm supportive of whoever is playing. If McNair has a good year and helps the Ravens win, I guess you could say I am pro-McNair. If he's benched and Boller comes in, I'm pro-Boller. And ditto St. Pierre. I know that's a difficult concept for some to understand, but that's the way I feel.

BTW: if McNair fucks up: get his ass out of here, lick the financial wounds, and try, try again to find someone who can fill Bert Jones' shoes.

[Fanman]

What's the big fascination w/ Bert Jones? Did he ever go to a Probowl? I know he never went to a SuperBowl.

Half of his passes were little screen passes to the RBs.

FM

[Greg]

What's the big fascination w/ Bert Jones? Did he ever go to a Probowl?
Well, he was the first QB to end a full season with a QB rating over 100 (102.5).
1976 was the AP MVP and NFL Offensive player of the year.
1976 Pro Bowler.
All Pro in 1976, 2nd team in 1977.

Despite your assertion that half his passes were screens to RBs, had a ridiculously high 9.04 yards per pass attempt in 1976.

And he was the most obvious reason the Colts went from last place in 1974 to first in 1975. When he went down in 1978 the Colts went from 3 straight first place finishes to a 5 win season.

If you ever saw him throw a ball you would understand. He could throw it through a brick wall from 40 yards away and tell you which brick he would hit beforehand.

[Heap86]

What's the big fascination w/ Bert Jones? Did he ever go to a Probowl? I know he never went to a SuperBowl.

I was extremely young when the Colts were in Baltimore, but from what I have heard Bert Jones was probably the best QB Baltimore has had since Johnny U.

(I hope McNair can fill that role instead :happy: )

[RavenScallywag]

Take Boller's and Wright's stats from last year as our baseline...
335 completions, 562 attempts, 3381 yards, 59.6 completion percentage, 17 TDs, 21 INT, 71.3 rating

I'm thinking with our two "workhorse" backs and Musa Smith, attempts will go down to about 500 (we had 465 in 2004, McNair threw 476 last season in 14 games). McNair is perfecting the dink and dunk passing game and he's more accurate, so expect completion percentage to go up to at least 61 percent.

So now, we've got 500 attempts, 305 completions. I'd expect McNair to average about 215 yards per game, so we'll put his yardage at 3440.

Now, INT and TDs. INTs will drop significantly, because McNair throws it away rather than making the dumb throw. I think TDs will go up from last year, but not by much. So, making a guestimate, I'll say 19 TDs, 15 INT.

So, doing pure guestimating, I'm going with...

305 completions, 500 attempts, 3440 yards, 61 percent completions, 19 TDs, 15 INTs. That gives us an 81.7 QB rating.

That's assuming he plays in all 16 games of course.

[Fanman]

Great post RS...I hope you are right.

And thanks for the 411 on Bert Jones. I have always heard he was over-rated and never had any touch on his passes.

FM