At this point, I think Kevin Kolb's contract he signed with Arizona is a good low point to start negotiations from.
5 years, $63 mill with $21 guaranteed.
That is an average (raw...not legitimate average) of about 12 mill per year.
And say what you want, but Flacco is better than Kolb. A lot better.
6 years, 80 mill with 30 guaranteed.
That is about an average of 13 mill/year.
I would also set the contract up so that if after a year or two Flacco really isn't cutting it, they can get out of the contract without having a massive amount of dead money cap hit.
Yeah, the plausible arguments that Flacco deserves a long-term deal in the top-5 range I think (hope) are over. The risk would be massive; almost blind faith to pay that much.
I like Flacco and REALLY want him to succeed and be the man, but I can't see a mega deal like that.
Maybe Flacco would be interested in a 3 year deal averaging around 12-13 mill per year. That gives him more time to "prove it" under a new coordinator with (hopefully) better pieces around him.
The best QB's that will be out on the market likely will be Vick and Flynn.
Neither IMHO are any better.
And there is no way in hell Joe is getting a top 5 contract unless he blows the doors off the NFL next year.
He will be franchised, and under a ton of pressure in 2013.
I personally think that if Joe gets overpaid somewhere else it would be a bad team that overpays. I also think Flacco would look worse, and certainly no better, on one of those bad teams, for all the reasons people are using to excuse how bad he looks around here on his off days (i.e. the rest of the team is not good enough).
IF he goes on a hot streak to close out the season, he'll prove that he's better than he showed today (which was one of the worst QB displays you'll see). But that's no better than he's been able to do throughout his career.
I hope I've clarified my position. Sorry for the confusion.
Just going from there, Flacco is worth that contract, IMO. Maybe slightly more.
I do agree that if Flacco were to hit the open market he would be given a massive deal and it would be from a bad team.
Fitzpatrick's deal last year in Buffalo was 6 year, $59 mill with $24 guaranteed.
I am not saying Joe won't ask for (a lot) more than Kolb. And I am not saying the Ravens won't pay more than that.
I am just saying that if we were truly trying to find a "fair" value for the contract we would realize that Kolb's number would not be offered to Kolb if one knew what Kolb would look like after the deal.
In other words, it was incorrectly priced and can be argued as such. Then again, that happens a lot for QBs because a lot of teams are desperate. But at the same time, these desperate teams are usually bad, for considerable periods of time, perhaps because they offer desperate over-priced contracts (to QBs). I guess my bottomline is that just because some team will offer Joe more than he is truly worth (like they did to Kolb), doesn't mean I think the Ravens should.
See I have no issue with people criticizing players for bad play but statements like that bmorecareful are just wrong, its like you are trying to prove that he is a bad QB now.
And what if he does go on a hotstreak and looking at the playcalling and the plays run it is better than what has been done under Cam, would that not mean that maybe under a new system with a new OC he might be able to be better than average which I think he is already. Still too few games to be sure either way I think.