I understand if 5 is a bit hard to imagine. But definitely 3 or 4. If Flacco keeps playing the way he has been come playoff time, it's almost a certainty he'll win at least 3.
At least you're optimistic.
Wildly optimistic but optimistic still.
Oh, hmm. Yeah I don't think the Ravens will win 5 this decade. It will take them until 2020. 4 of 8 is definitely possible.
And what you fail to understand is the amount of luck that goes into ONE Super Bowl run, let alone multiple runs.
Again, pimping individual stats doesn't help your argument. You keep telling us Flacco's numbers as if we've never seen them before.
Are multiple SB titles possible this decade? Yes.
Likely? Not even close. And that's not a knock on the team. It's simply reality.
Houstonraven- You said it perfect. In any given Super Bowl year it is the perfect storm of luck, skill, getting hot at the right time, playing the right opponents, and execution. Savor every moment of right now because it will be twice as hard next year. Everyone plays their best game against the Champs.
Not that you can assess a decade after three years, but I put together a top 10 list for the 2010s based on what teams have accomplished so far. Why not?
1. Green Bay Packers (36-12, 5-2 in playoffs, 2010 SB champions)
2. Baltimore Ravens (34-14, 6-2 in playoffs, 2012 SB champions)
3. New York Giants (28-20, 4-0 in playoffs, 2011 SB champions)
4. New England Patriots (39-9, 2-3 in playoffs, 1 SB appearance)
5. Atlanta Falcons (36-12, 1-3 in playoffs)
6. San Francisco 49ers (30-17-1, 3-2 in playoffs 1 SB appearance)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (32-16, 2-2 in playoffs, 1 SB appearance)
8. New Orleans Saints (31-17, 1-2 in playoffs)
9. Houston Texans (28-20, 2-2 in playoffs)
10. Chicago Bears (29-19, 1-1 in playoffs)
PA, consider this comparison. Plenty of pro and amateur golfers have shot a hole in one in their career. Predicting that a given player on the PGA will have a hole in one at some point isn't crazy. But you're basically saying that Justin Rose is going to have 4 Aces in his next 7 majors.
Is it possible? Sure. Dude is an amazing young player coming off a Major win.
Would you be a fool to put money on it? Shit yes.
Hmm. Now that I think about it, the Ravens Super Bowl win last year instantly pretty much objectively made the Ravens the best team in the league the last half decade. Amazing what a Super Bowl win does.
You guys are downplaying that Flacco is playing at a historically high level, so much that its as absurd as my optimism.
Flacco has kept it up 3 years now. Until he goes and has a stinker of a postseason, you can't just act like he's just any ol' golfer who may or may not get a hole in one.
Because I'm assuming you guys realize by now that by saying the Ravens are unlikely to win another Super Bowl in the next decade, you're most likely counting on Flacco's playoff performance to suffer. Because if Flacco keeps playing the way he is in the playoffs, it's almost a statistical certainty that he'll win at least two more superbowls in the next ten years. I think if you looked through the gameboxes of all playoff games, you'll find that when teams' quarterbacks' have a quarterback rating of 102, they have a very good chance of winning. Joe Montana for instance, had a playoff QBR of 95, and he won four Super Bowls.
If Flacco keeps playing at the level he is now, the odds are in the Ravens favor. You know why? Because chances are he'll be outperforming the quarterbacks he's facing... Usually by a considerable margin. Now why's that? Because he's playing at a historical level.
It is tricky because Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, and Drew Brees ALSO play very well in the playoffs. But for now at least, the Ravens have better all-around teams. Until that changes, and until Flacco does anything besides play amazing in the playoffs, the Ravens have very favorable chances of winning more superbowls.
That's not blind optimism. It's making predictions based on logic and statistical analysis.
I mean hell, a decade is a long time. Thinking that there's a bad chance of Ravens winning even ONE more Super Bowl is a very amateurish way of probability analysis.
Hell, even if you slated all 32 teams as having an equal chance of winning the Super Bowl in any given year, that would give the Ravens a 31.25% chance of winning another Super Bowl in the next ten years. (Oh god, we're doing math again. Lob, where are you?)
I think it's pretty reasonable to anticipate the Ravens being a top 10 team, based on the past five years. Also, I'd say at least 75% of the time one of the supposed top 10 teams ends up winning the Super Bowl. This means that, based on those values, the Ravens have a 75% chance of winning another Super Bowl in the next decade.
Now, I think the Ravens are the best all-around team in the league and the best quarterback come playoff time. I could provide tons of facts that back up that opinion. It is NOT a crazy opinion. So, from my eyes, the probability percentages goes much, much higher. As it should, if Flacco continues his trajectory.
This is all based on the assumption that things remain relatively stable. Yes, assuming things stay stable is optimistic. But it's equally pessimistic to assume things come crashing down. There's no way of predicting all the different ways things could change. It would be futile to attempt it. I'm basing everything on how things stand, and how things logically could be projected.
Also, remember that there has been a dynasty in every decade of football going back to the 50s. So while theoretically a dynasty is very improbable, in practice it's not farfetched.
And I mainly think Flacco is going to win 5 superbowls in his career. I'm not gun-ho about them all being before midnight on December 31st 2019.