Overvalued/Undervalued

Starting to refine my draft board this year (have to admit, the lockout was a nice break from having to constantly follow NFL news). Figured I'd start a discussion on who we think is overvalued this year, and who's undervalued.

Overvalued

QB Michael Vick - ADP 1.07:
I'm not saying the guy won't put up the stats that everyone thinks he will. He certainly will...if he stays healthy. That's my concern. If I'm going to take a QB in the 1st round, I need to be as sure as possible that he's going to last all season. I don't know if I can say that with Vick.

WR Greg Jennings - ADP 2.09:
Overvalued considering that he's typically the 6th receiver coming off the board. He won't have that kind of season. For the first 5 weeks of 2010, when Jermichael Finley was healthy, Jennings was averaging 2.8 rec, 36.6 yards, and had 3 TD. Finley was clearly the #1 option. Once Finley went on IR, over the last 11 weeks Jennings stats soared to 5.6 rec, 98.3 yards, and had 9 TD. Finley is healthy again. It's easy to do the math. He's a mid-level WR2.

WR Dwayne Bowe - ADP 3.10:
He had a 7 week tear of 49 rec, 733 yards, and 13 TD. Outside of that he was largely invisible. Way too inconsistent. He can't be relied on week to week. He's being drafted as a low-end WR1/high-end WR2. He's better suited as as low-end WR2. If someone drafts him that high expecting last year's performance, they're going to be disappointed.

* Those guys above were players that I won't take at the current ADP, but will pull the trigger on if they happened to fall down the board. The following are guys that I have zero interest in drafting under any circumstance:

QB Matthew Stafford - ADP 12.02:
Can't figure out why he's the 13th QB off the board. Sure, he has the upside with a high-powered offense, but he cannot stay healthy. He's missed 19 of 32 games thus far in his career. Why would you suddenly expect him to stay healthy for a full season? Even drafting him as a QB2, if/when he goes down, I don't want to be scouring the waiver wire and having to pick up someone like Sanchez or McNabb to be my backup. If he can stay healthy for a full season, I'll strongly consider drafting him in 2012..but not now.

RB Michael Turner - ADP 2.02:
He's almost 30. He had groin surgery this off-season. Over the last 5 weeks of 2010 he really showed signs of slowing down, averaging only 3.5 ypc against some pretty terrible run defenses. I think that breakdown continues in 2011. Even if he doesn't get injured, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Falcons start phasing him out if he struggles. Rookie Jacquizz Rodgers is the talk of Falcons camp - electrifying back in the mold of a Jamaal Charles or Ray Rice. If Rodgers has a solid preseason, he could be worth a late-round flier.

RB Maurice Jones-Drew - ADP 1.11:
The bad knee just scares me too much. And the risk isn't worth it, as I see MJD's production dropping - defenses are going to sell out to stop him, and Rashad Jennings is going to get more work in an effort to keep MJD healthy. I'll target Jennings in late rounds, but someone else can roll the dice on Jones-Drew.

WR Marques Colston - ADP 4.07:
Even if you ignore the 5 (!) knee surgeries he's had in his 5 year career, there are other reasons to say he's overvalued. Unless you're playing in a league of 10 teams or less, he hasn't put up WR1 numbers since 2007. He's on an offense that spreads the ball around so much it's maddening. Not worth the headache.

RB Ryan Matthews - ADP 4.01:
A lot of sites have him pegged as a breakout candidate, but I don't see it. He can't stay healthy. Missed 4 games last year, and so far this year he's already missed camp time for failing his conditioning test, a toe injury, and now will miss the first preseason game with a strained muscle in his leg. Outside of that, the coaching staff is in love with Mike Tolbert. At worst, Matthews will spend more time on the trainer's table than on the field. At best, he's in a 50/50 split with Tolbert on a pass-first offense, with Tolbert getting the goal line opportunities. I see nothing to get excited about.

Any Washington RB
Ryan Torain - ADP 7.10
Roy Helu - ADP 9.06
Tim Hightower - ADP 12.04:
That's a very crowded backfield. And if you're a veteran FF player, you already know that Mike Shanahan is notoriously fickle with his running backs. You have a 1 in 3 shot of picking the Week 1 starter, and even that's no guarantee - I can easily see all three getting significant playing time at various points throughout the year. I'll just target other sleepers in those rounds.

Any New England RB
BenJarvus Green-Ellis - ADP 6.07
Danny Woodhead - ADP 9.04
Shane Vereen - ADP 13.12:
Almost a mirror image of the situation in Washington.



I'll work on my sleepers and undervalued guys in another post. Didn't expect this one to run so long. Hopefully it'll get the ball rolling. Interested to hear other opinions.

RB Ryan Grant - ADP 5.02:
He doesn't have the injury history of some of the guys I mentioned above, and his injury last year doesn't seem to be having any lingering effects this year (unlike MJD). I'm willing to chalk it up to a fluke. McCarthy has said he doesn't want a committee approach, saying he wants one back to get "at least 20 touches a game". As long as Grant is healthy, there's no reason to think he won't be that guy. Workhorse running backs on good offenses are gems. If he can put out a performance similar to 2009 (1,250 yards and 11 TD), you could do a lot worse at RB2. Great value in the 5th round.

WR Anquan Boldin - ADP 5.08:
Last year I correctly pegged Boldin as overrated (he was the 13th WR at 3.07), because I knew Flacco was still going to look to the guys he was comfortable with (Mason and Rice). End result was Boldin with 64 receptions, Rice 63, and Mason 61. This year I like Boldin for the same reason. With so many new faces on offense, Flacco is still going to go where he's comfortable. Boldin is a nice value pick, even more so in PPR leagues.

QB Tony Romo - ADP 5.01:
Another guy who's injury isn't scaring me away. Dallas has a better offensive line now, and I'm hard pressed to find a better trio of receivers than Austin, Dez, and Witten. Of all the mid-tier QBs going in rounds 5-6 (Romo, Schaub, Ryan, Roeth), Romo is the one guy I can easily see finishing 2011 as a top five fantasy QB. I would be more than content to go RB/WR early in my draft, and scoop up Romo in the 4th round.

WR Dez Bryant - ADP 4.07:
15th receiver off the board right now, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him end the year threatening the top 5, inside the top 10 for sure. Dallas beat writers are calling him the best Cowboys player in camp not named Demarcus Ware. Roy Williams is out of the way (not that Bryant would have had trouble beating him out anyway). In my opinion I don't see another receiver with as much breakout potential.

WR Santonio Holmes - ADP 5.02:
Burress and Mason are going to draw coverage away from Holmes, but I don't see them eating too much into his targets. He's clearly the best receiver on the team. He won't get a ton of touchdowns with Burress and Keller stealing red zone targets, but I see a yardage total fairly close to the 1,250 he had in 2009. I guess it really depends on how much you trust Sanchez to feed him the ball, but I think Holmes is a solid WR2.

WR Mario Manningham - ADP 7.01:
I don't think Steve Smith is going to contribute much to the Giants, assuming he even gets resigned. That leaves Manningham as the #2. Even behind Smith and Nicks last year, he had 60 rec for 944 yards and 9 TD...including 16 for 346 and 4 TD over the final three games. If he carries that into this season, he's a great value as the 28th receiver off the board.



As you can see, I think there's a ton of value at WR in the middle rounds this year. It's so much more deeper than RB, where things really fall off after the first 15 or so guys.

Great post! I'm definitely updating my draft sheet (my draft sheet is Sunday). I'm not convinced about Dez becoming a top 10 WR though. As you pointed out, there are a couple other great receivers on that offense to share opportunities with. I could see it happening, I just don't feel it's likely.

Also, Steve Smith just got picked up by the Eagles, so no doubt Manningham is #2 in NY.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kyle Cactus

Great post! I'm definitely updating my draft sheet (my draft sheet is Sunday). I'm not convinced about Dez becoming a top 10 WR though. As you pointed out, there are a couple other great receivers on that offense to share opportunities with. I could see it happening, I just don't feel it's likely.

Also, Steve Smith just got picked up by the Eagles, so no doubt Manningham is #2 in NY.

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I might have gotten a little carried away with the top 10 prediction. I just love his potential, especially now that his attitude seems to have done a 180 and he's fully focused on his game (reportedly, anyway). But like you said, Austin and Witten should temper those expectations.

The problem with the Smith signing is that Manningham's probably going to start shooting up draft boards soon. If you can grab him in your draft this week at around his current ADP, you got a steal. I have a feeling by the time I draft late this month he'll be hovering around the 5th round, at which point I'd have to really think about how much I like him.

I like Sam Bradford a ton this year too. I don't know what his average draft value is because I haven't seen any rankings, but I'd be willing to be he'd be a top 10 QB this season.

Bradford's currently going in the 9th round of 12 team leagues, as the 14th QB off the board.

I like what the Rams have done this off-season. McDaniels is going to have Bradford throwing until his arm falls off, and spreading the ball all over the field to all the new weapons he has. The team is going to be playing from behind a lot. However if you're in a league that penalizes heavily for turnovers, I still see a lot of picks coming.

Not sure if I see a top 10 year, but I do like him more than the other mid-round QB options like Freeman, Flacco, or Cutler.

If you are in a league with ten teams or less, I could see you taking a chance on Vick, because you will likely get a quality backup QB. However, his durability, for what he tries to accomplish, concerns me as well.