Interesting Playoff Prediction Site

[camdenyard]

I've found this pretty interesting.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html

[RavenScallywag]

I've used that site past two years running. They sure break down A LOT of stats...

< 1% chance of missing the playoffs

[leachisabeast]

You know your doing something right when you ONLY have a 1 % chance of going into the play offs as a WC team lol.

[Maelstrom]

You know your doing something right when you ONLY have a 1 % chance of going into the play offs as a WC team lol.

Actually, we have a 101% chance of getting into the playoffs as a wild card team, according to this chart. I suspect we are the victim of a rounding error.

[chicagoravensfan]

61% chance of getting a bye seems generous. I'd be thrilled if it happened but with the tough schedule coming up, and Denver's creampuff schedule, I'd say a 3 or 4 seed is more likely.

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[Irish Raven]

Been a while since I looked at the standings

A Steelers loss this weekend and a likely win for Cincy at SD would get Bengals the 6th seed

I'll be looking at this interesting website again next week

[RavenScallywag]

Been a while since I looked at the standings

A Steelers loss this weekend and a likely win for Cincy in Oakland would get Bengals the 6th seed

I'll be looking at this interesting website again next week

Ummm...Cincy beat Oakland last week? They play SD this week.

In any case, a win this week combined with a Steelers loss certainly puts them in the driver seat, but still a fair amount of football left to play. They would each be 1-3 in the division, and still play HTH one more time.

[Irish Raven]

corrected, thanks

[Kyle Cactus]

I've used the sight the past several years. I really think it's a great resource. It's a nice, unbiased reference point to compare your perceptions too, but obviously statistics can't tell you everything.

As far as the 61%, it may be slightly generous, but it's probably a more realistic number than you think.
- We have a 1-game lead over the patriots and head-to-head, so they'd need to gain 2 games on us to overtake us
- We have a 1-game lead over the Broncos, plus a home game coming up against them. That's probably the single most important game left in our season. If we win it there's a great chance we get a 1st round bye. (I believe someone else has already made this point in another thread as well)

[Boulderraven]

The BIG game will vs Denver in Baltimore, that winner will likely decide the #2 seed. I doubt Houston loses 2 and we run the table, unlikely but possible/too bad they got that refs blown call on Thanksgiving.

[ed from Bel Air]

Pittsburgh a 50% playoff team seems generous, even with the favorable schedule after tomorrow. I do not think Ben will be the same the rest of this year.

[leachisabeast]

If we win our next three games, and the Patriots lose to Houston, we seal the number 2 seed, and will have to hope that the Texans would lose their final two while we beat the Giants and Cincy in our final two, that seems highly unlikely. It really makes the Giants game not as important if the Texans beat the Pats, because we could then afford to lose our next two games and still have the number 2 seed (since the Giants are an NFC team). The only thing to play for is the umber 1 seed preying for two unlikely losses for the Texans.

On the other hand, if we win our next three, and the Pats beat the Texans, it really does give us something to play for vs the Giants. We would have to keep hold of the number 2 seed with the Pats right up our asses, but on the flip side, we'd have a much better shot at securing the number 1 seed if the Texans lose to the Colts on the road in their last game.

It's a tough choice to make which scenario would be preferable. Personally, I'd hope for the safer option of Texans beating the Pats on the road, because while we would have very little chance of getting that number 1 seed, we'd at least had secured a first round bye, which at the end of the day is the ultimate goal. Plus it would likely give us a chance to rest our players for the cincy game. In the play offs anything can happen, I can easily see the Pats or the Broncos going into Houston and beating them, while we take care of business at M and T and get a home AFCCG for the first time in franchise history. Going into Houston is the worse case scenario, so we should probably root for Denver or NE in the play offs if this were to be the case.

With that said, it looks like we will likely finish either 13-3 or 12-4 depending on the circumstances. We would drop a game going to Cincy if there is nothing to play for, and we could lose to the Giants who are along with the Steelers, maybe the only team in the NFL who could beat us at M and T at this point.

[Shambla]

Pittsburgh a 50% playoff team seems generous, even with the favorable schedule after tomorrow. I do not think Ben will be the same the rest of this year.

They actually have a decent shot but it all depends on that CIN @ PIT game (where Ben will most likely be back). If PIT wins that game they'd be the wildcard even with a loss tomorrow and another loss thrown in for good measure (both teams could be at 9-7 - I assumed we'd beat CIN in the last game). Even if Ben's not 100% they've got SD, DAL, CIN, CLE so it's not exactly murderer's row.

It's for this reason that I'm pulling for CIN tomorrow even though it would be nice to pop some champagne in the locker room.

[Shambla]

If we win our next three games, and the Patriots lose to Houston, we seal the number 2 seed, and will have to hope that the Texans would lose their final two while we beat the Giants and Cincy in our final two, that seems highly unlikely. It really makes the Giants game not as important if the Texans beat the Pats, because we could then afford to lose our next two games and still have the number 2 seed (since the Giants are an NFC team). The only thing to play for is the umber 1 seed preying for two unlikely losses for the Texans.

It'll be interesting what Harbaugh would do if that last game of the season shapes up to be meaningless. Personally, I'd play the starters for at least a half if they had a bye week anyways. I think the numbers show there's no benefit one way or the other either completely resting or "playing to keep from being rusty". I'd like our players healthy...but I'd also like to keep that consecutive division win streak going .