OT-- oh Goddell, really?

**lobachevsky** · 12-07-2012, 12:52 PM

Originally Posted by Shambla

I think the league percentage for 4th and 15 is about 20% (the idea is to make it about the same chance as an onside kick). To pull that off even 2 out of 2 times would be a 4% chance and meanwhile you're taking a big risk of letting a lesser team get some nice field position.

This 2009 article at Advanced NFL Stats indicates that as of then 26% of onside kicks in the NFL were successful--but this is deceptive because the success rate goes up to 60% when the receiving team isn't expecting it; for late-game desperation conditions, 20% is about right. (But see below.) Key paragraph is at the end:

Originally Posted by Brian Burke at Advanced NFL Stats

The catch is that teams can’t do this very often. The key is that the onside attempt is unexpected. As soon as a team is known for sneaky onside kicks, its success rate will go down. But this isn’t such a bad thing. As opponents are forced to respect the threat of an onside kick, their normal kick return blocking will suffer, allowing overall net kickoff distance to improve. Ultimately, there would be an equilibrium, making life more difficult for the receiving team.

So a QB who can punt the ball 30 yards in the air from a shotgun, or a punter who can throw pretty well, become desirable roster members. That's different but it doesn't fundamentally change the game.

I think the biggest flaw as someone pointed out is a 1st down via penalty. I absolutely think that if you want to take away a DB's ability to lay a hit and separate the ball from a man you need to let them be more physical and ease up on pass interference.

You could get around that by altering the penalty rules for post-scoring change-of-possession plays so that there are no automatic first downs by penalty (except for PFs involving potential injury like roughing the passer/kicker* & hits on defenseless receivers) & the result leaves a significant distance to go, say 5 yards: then DPI is 10 yards regardless of where on the field it occurs, defensive holding is 5 yards, and the team with the ball now faces 4th and 5. Or increase the distance to 20 yards & make DPI 15 yards, DH 10 (same as offensive) with the same result. (* - The player who takes the snap should be treated as a punter, therefore you have two levels of contact, with "running-into" the standard 5 yard penalty,)

Put a QB with some punting ability in the shotgun for such a play & we might see completely unprecedented things happen, e.g., a QB flushed from the pocket delayed punting on the run when neither team expects it, creating utter chaos.

Again, to all the purists out there, this may not be what we're all used to, but wouldn't it beat the crap out of just handing the receiving team the ball on its 20?

**akashicrecorder** · 12-07-2012, 02:40 PM

I think another cool possibility for this rule is to have an offensive penalty of any kind negate the play and give the defense the ball where the penalty occurred.

That is to say, instead of false start, illegal formation, holding and OPI giving the ball back to the offense with penalty yards tacked on, which would probably then definitely convince the offense to punt, say that any offensive penalty in that situation counts as a failed conversion.

Just a thought. That way the offense, too, would have to be on its very best behavior. Kind of makes up for the fact that the defense might give up some ticky-tack illegal contact.

**NCRAVEN** · 12-07-2012, 02:43 PM

Originally Posted by akashicrecorder

I think another cool possibility for this rule is to have an offensive penalty of any kind negate the play and give the defense the ball where the penalty occurred.

That is to say, instead of false start, illegal formation, holding and OPI giving the ball back to the offense with penalty yards tacked on, which would probably then definitely convince the offense to punt, say that any offensive penalty in that situation counts as a failed conversion.

Just a thought. That way the offense, too, would have to be on its very best behavior. Kind of makes up for the fact that the defense might give up some ticky-tack illegal contact.

I was thinking about this more. Why not have the same rules to a kick-off apply. If your offsides or you hold, it's a rekick. And if you went for a fake punt and there is a penalty now you can go for it in an offensive formation with the distance being minus the penalty yards.

But let's be honest, how often is there a penalty on the receiving team in a fake punt situation?

**moose10101** · 12-07-2012, 02:46 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Why not just move to punts period and instead of 4th and 15, you can go for a fake punt (equal to onside kick) and you have to get 15 yards. Any penalty on the receiving team is yards only not an automatic 1st down and you get to try to get those yards than like a 4th down.

If you're running the play from scrimmage, how do you enforce the punt/fake punt? What's to stop the Patriots from putting Brady out there as a blocker, his RB as the punter, and his WR's as the gunners?

And if you do it as a "free kick" (as in after a safety), how do you execute a fake? You can't throw the ball; you want the punter to try to run 15 yards without being killed?

**moose10101** · 12-07-2012, 02:47 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

Or have their QBs learn how to punt, or their punters to throw. Wouldn't that be interesting--asking a QB to do something a body part other than his throwing arm...

Believe it or not, you're describing Steve Spurrier.

**NCRAVEN** · 12-07-2012, 03:02 PM

Originally Posted by moose10101

If you're running the play from scrimmage, how do you enforce the punt/fake punt? What's to stop the Patriots from putting Brady out there as a blocker, his RB as the punter, and his WR's as the gunners?

And if you do it as a "free kick" (as in after a safety), how do you execute a fake? You can't throw the ball; you want the punter to try to run 15 yards without being killed?

Well I've never seen a onside kick after safety, I honestly don't know if that's legal. Is it?

But you're other point, if the Patriots want to put Brady in as a punter, so what? They can do that now, however it would take the element of surprise away, wouldn't it?

**Haloti92** · 12-07-2012, 03:11 PM

You can onsides kick after a safety.

Also, I am pretty sure the odds of recovering an onsides kick is well below 20% now, probably closer to 10% (not counting surprise onsides). There have been two recent rule changes that have decreased the odds of recovery. One, you can no longer overload one side of the ball as the kicking team. And two, your players can only be a maximum of 5 yards behind the ball before it is kicked, i.e. smaller running starts, slower speed going forward at kickoff.

**moose10101** · 12-07-2012, 03:48 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

But you're other point, if the Patriots want to put Brady in as a punter, so what? They can do that now, however it would take the element of surprise away, wouldn't it?

My point is that your suggestion:

"Why not just move to punts period and instead of 4th and 15, you can go for a fake punt (equal to onside kick) and you have to get 15 yards."

is identical to Goodell's.

**NCRAVEN** · 12-07-2012, 03:55 PM

Originally Posted by moose10101

My point is that your suggestion:

"Why not just move to punts period and instead of 4th and 15, you can go for a fake punt (equal to onside kick) and you have to get 15 yards."

is identical to Goodell's.

I thought his was, two options punt or in place of an onside kick you can line up under center and go 4th and 15th. Maybe I need to reread it?

**lobachevsky** · 12-07-2012, 04:32 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

You can onsides kick after a safety.

Also, I am pretty sure the odds of recovering an onsides kick is well below 20% now, probably closer to 10% (not counting surprise onsides). There have been two recent rule changes that have decreased the odds of recovery. One you can no longer overload one side of the ball as the kicking team. And two, your players can only be a maximum of 5 yards behind the ball when it is kicked, i.e. smaller running starts, slower speed going forward at kickoff.

If you went to the 4th-&-15/20 punt-or-try change-of-possession scenario, there should be no onside-kick provision, & as in a regular punt the ball should not be live until touched by the receiving team. Dunno about current ball-kicked-off-out-of-bounds rules--you might want to keep those to increase the probability of a returnable kick.

**Haloti92** · 12-07-2012, 04:36 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

If you went to the 4th-&-15/20 punt-or-try change-of-possession scenario, there should be no onside-kick provision, & as in a regular punt the ball should not be live until touched by the receiving team. Dunno about current ball-kicked-off-out-of-bounds rules--you might want to keep those to increase the probability of a returnable kick.

Well, as is being debated by others, there is no difference between a normal punt or try a 4th and 15 in terms of options. They are both the same as a normal 4th and 15; you can go for it or regular punt.

As for free kick "punt" after a safety, etc, that actually is a live ball (when kicked after a safety), but it can be fair caught just like a kickoff that does not first bounce off the ground. Not sure what people are talking about in some instances they are saying "punt" here.

**moose10101** · 12-08-2012, 01:19 PM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

I thought his was, two options punt or in place of an onside kick you can line up under center and go 4th and 15th. Maybe I need to reread it?

Under Goodell's proposal, the punt would be a play from scrimmage, not a free kick. If your "Why not move to punts period" isn't describing a play from scrimmage, then you're describing a free kick, as in after a safety. Nobody's going to run a fake off a free kick to try to gain 15 yards. Maybe it would help if you'd be more specific about your "punt" scenario, since you don't seem to be talking about the same procedure as most of us.