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  1. #2125
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread



    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    You are probably right. Ozzie is probably planning to go back to Oher at LT. And our offense will take a step backwards for doing so.

    Until we make a move like this, we will have average to poor play at LT, and to me that is far from ideal.


    We also have AT LEAST 3 more picks then roster spots available. No need to keep 11 picks, and IMO no need to keep Dickson.
    What's with the drama?

    I'm pretty sure that Ozzie is well aware of the implications of bringing Oher back to LT.
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  2. #2126
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by s.r.genovese View Post
    This. Many posters have done the research and seen that LT's outside the top 15 don't generally play above average, league wide.

    So until they get a guy like that, there will be average play on the left side. We've seen what that leads to: inconsistent offense and a 10-6 regular season record. We've seen what above-average play has given us: a Super Bowl.

    McKinnie won't be around much longer, and theres no guarantee he resigns here next year or maintains his level of play.

    If the Ravens want to increase the level of play at the LT position, they will have to do this eventually. Why not do it when they have 11 picks to work with?
    Hang on now...just because Lane Johnson "may" be picked in the top 15 (because of the lack of quality OT's in this draft) doesn't mean that he is worth a top 15 pick. Nor does that mean that he has a higher probability of success because of his drafted position.

    If the Ravens are thinking of moving up to draft a LT, then they should just throw the chips on the table and see about moving up to take Eric Fisher or if Luke Joeckel slides out of the top 5, move up to take him.

    Other than that? Stand pat and look at guys like Quessenberry, Faulk, Xavier Nixon, or even Brian Winters because the drop off between those guys and Lane Johnson is not so drastic to be worth the amount of picks it would take to move up into the teens.
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  3. #2127
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by s.r.genovese View Post
    This. Many posters have done the research and seen that LT's outside the top 15 don't generally play above average, league wide.

    So until they get a guy like that, there will be average play on the left side. We've seen what that leads to: inconsistent offense and a 10-6 regular season record. We've seen what above-average play has given us: a Super Bowl.

    McKinnie won't be around much longer, and theres no guarantee he resigns here next year or maintains his level of play.

    If the Ravens want to increase the level of play at the LT position, they will have to do this eventually. Why not do it when they have 11 picks to work with?
    Oher was a 1st round pick and KO was a 2nd round pick. I have no problem picking up another Tackle at 32 but there really are no guarantees that he'll be a better Left Tackle than Oher or KO. The 3rd OT in this draft is not really a sure thing. I don't see Ozzie spending a lot to trade up for a someone like that. It's not something he does. Now if Johnson falls into the low 20's then it's possible. It's way too early to really get a sense of things so we'll just have to wait and see what things look like after the Combine.
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  4. #2128

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by s.r.genovese View Post
    This. Many posters have done the research and seen that LT's outside the top 15 don't generally play above average, league wide.

    So until they get a guy like that, there will be average play on the left side. We've seen what that leads to: inconsistent offense and a 10-6 regular season record. We've seen what above-average play has given us: a Super Bowl.

    McKinnie won't be around much longer, and theres no guarantee he resigns here next year or maintains his level of play.

    If the Ravens want to increase the level of play at the LT position, they will have to do this eventually. Why not do it when they have 11 picks to work with?
    I wouldn't mind seeing that research, because I don't buy into this line of thinking at all.

    Everyone understands that 1st round picks are overall more likely to pan out than later picks by at least some margin. But are you trying to claim that there's some sort of special characteristic of LTs that makes it even MORE essential to take them in the 1st, and particularly in the top 15, or else they have a much lower chance of success? Sounds like hogwash to me.

    Since 2005 the following OTs have been drafted in the top 15. Outright busts are bolded and "questionable" guys are italicized: Jammal Brown, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Levi Brown, Joe Thomas, Chris Williams, Ryan Clady, Jake Long, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith, Anthony Davis, Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Tyron Smith, Matt Kalil

    That's 4 busts and 5 "questionables" out of 15. That's a hit rate of less than 50%. Even if that's a higher hit rate than anywhere else in the draft is it really THAT much higher to guarantee that you NEED to get your LT at that range in the draft? I don't think that's true at all.

    The data I've cited suggest (not very strongly because they haven't been regressed or otherwise controlled of course) that of any 2 OTs taken in the top 15 of the draft, one of them will bust or otherwise not play at an elite level (maybe needing to be moved to RT, etc.) How about instead of giving up your whole draft for 50% odds, just stand pat and maximize your odds elsewhere? The Ravens should just stay put where they are and see what falls to them.




  5. #2129

    Cool Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    I wouldn't mind seeing that research, because I don't buy into this line of thinking at all.

    Everyone understands that 1st round picks are overall more likely to pan out than later picks by at least some margin. But are you trying to claim that there's some sort of special characteristic of LTs that makes it even MORE essential to take them in the 1st, and particularly in the top 15, or else they have a much lower chance of success? Sounds like hogwash to me.

    Since 2005 the following OTs have been drafted in the top 15. Outright busts are bolded and "questionable" guys are italicized: Jammal Brown, D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Levi Brown, Joe Thomas, Chris Williams, Ryan Clady, Jake Long, Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith, Anthony Davis, Russell Okung, Trent Williams, Tyron Smith, Matt Kalil

    That's 4 busts and 4 "questionables" out of 15. That's a hit rate of less than 50%. Even if that's a higher hit rate than anywhere else in the draft is it really THAT much higher to guarantee that you NEED to get your LT at that range in the draft? I don't think that's true at all.

    The data I've cited suggest (not very strongly because they haven't been regressed or otherwise controlled of course) that of any 2 OTs taken in the top 15 of the draft, one of them will bust or otherwise not play at an elite level. How about instead of giving up your whole draft for 50% odds, just stand pat and maximize your odds elsewhere? The Ravens should just stay put where they are and see what falls to them.
    Wicked if I recall correctly posted some stuff about it a little while back. He looked into the top tackles in the league in relation to their draft position and there was a strong correlation between the tackles taken top 15 and their overall NFL rankings as LTs.

    You're looking at it from the wrong angle. I'm not saying that all top 15ish tackles are guaranteed all-stars. But if you want to find an all-star tackle, chances are he's getting picked in that range.




  6. #2130

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Where are these McClain rumors coming from? He's been giving interviews over the past few days and saying he's doing fine and will be ready for minicamps... on January 2nd he said he felt good enough to tackle somebody right then and there. http://articles.baltimoresun.com/201...eason-workouts

    Obviously he's going to give a rosy picture of his recovery, but I have literally not seen a single source other than someone on this message board (Boulderraven perhaps?) who said his injury might be "career threatening." Doesn't sound like reliable info to me at all.

    And I didn't say ILB wasn't a need... but it's getting overrated as being our TOP need. We just won the Super Bowl with our current ILB corps and a couple of young guys picked up experience along the way. I don't doubt they'll draft an ILB, but in the hierarchy of overall needs how can it be higher than FS or LT? We literally don't have anyone under contract next year who has ever played a snap at FS. We only have Michael Oher as an LT option. Those are the real bare-bones positions moreso than ILB where we know McClain has played well in the past and there are several other guys with experience.
    Me?? I didn't say anything. I do know a spinal cord injury, even a contusion can be very serious longterm. It ended I think Al Wilson's career in Denver. Glad to hear McClain saying he feels good. Good for his career and his life.




  7. #2131
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by bmorecareful View Post
    Where is all this phantom money to sign these FAs going to come from? After Ray Lewis' retirement and tendering RFAs the Ravens are projected to have 5m in cap space next year. Adjust that number up by a million or two AT BEST if some RFAs are non-tendered. The BEST case scenario is signing Flacco to a long term deal that will have a 2013 cap number of 5-7m... so there goes all your cap space right there! If in the WORST case scenario they put the exclusive franchise tag on Flacco they're going to be close to 15 million over the cap!!! That not only means NO free agents, it will mean gutting the team in a HUGE way.

    I think the Ravens have to prepare to put the tag on Flacco, even if only the non-exclusive tag. That would put them 7-10m over the cap. That means NO free agents WHATSOEVER and it means cutting at a minimum Birk, Williams, and Leach, and working a lot of magic with re-structures/extensions/etc for guys like Boldin, Jacoby, Oher, Yanda, Ngata, etc. That's just to get UNDER the cap--again, no FA signings even remotely possible.

    Even if the most miraculous event imaginable happens (which is Flacco signing a deal before March 4th), his 2013 cap hit will eat up 7m or so. If they still cut Birk, Williams, and Leach, they'll have 6-7m to play with, and can fiddle with the numbers for other guys to free up a bit more. Then you'd probably be able to bring back Ellerbe, possibly McKinnie if the Ravens are interested, and/or maybe a few street guys like a Terrance Knighton or Kenny Phillips.
    There isn't any phantom money, I'm just assuming the Ravens extend a few contracts and make some moves, we will be able to afford a safety if all falls into place. Maybe I'm a little hopefull about them signing Flacco, but where is the money going to come from to franchise him? Its going to be 20 million dollars.




  8. #2132

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by s.r.genovese View Post
    Wicked if I recall correctly posted some stuff about it a little while back. He looked into the top tackles in the league in relation to their draft position and there was a strong correlation between the tackles taken top 15 and their overall NFL rankings as LTs.

    You're looking at it from the wrong angle. I'm not saying that all top 15ish tackles are guaranteed all-stars. But if you want to find an all-star tackle, chances are he's getting picked in that range.


    And that is my take as well.

    Outside of the top 15, most of the "rest of the best" were picked from 15-40. Players liek Staley, Duane brown and Andrew Whitworth fall into this category. Veldheer, Peters, and Gaither are a rare breed. And it's said when i have to include Gaither, as there are that few God-great LT's outside the first round. If I didn't include Gaither I would have to include Bushrod and Marshall Newhouse. Don't really think they are good at all.




  9. #2133
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Btw, I'm still trying to figure out how Cordy Glenn fell so far in the draft, he started almost every game at LT this year, and looked almost as good as Matt Kalil did.




  10. #2134

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    In all seriousness, we can't really talk trading up until after FA. Needs of the other 31 and who-may-draft-whom will change once cats like Albert, Clady, Long, Wallace, Welker and Vollmer find a home.




  11. #2135

    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Btw, I'm still trying to figure out how Cordy Glenn fell so far in the draft, he started almost every game at LT this year, and looked almost as good as Matt Kalil did.
    Lots of people started pegging him as a guard-maybe-RT...




  12. #2136
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    Re: New draft/FA/offseason thread

    Well Manti Te'o will likely be available when the Ravens pick. Heck, he might be available when the Ravens pick in the second round. Anyone still interested?




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