The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

**iggyman555** · 12-09-2012, 08:43 PM

Originally Posted by Ravenboy2003

The only saving grace is that we should have some guys healthy by the WC weekend and for some oddball reason the Harbaugh Ravens play great in week 1 of the playoffs. (4-0, I believe)

we shit the bed vs the texans last year we almost lost to their 3rd string qb, the only reason we won is on our team now, JJ

**pslholder96** · 12-09-2012, 08:49 PM

Originally Posted by Boulderraven

and also a 99.99% chance of being elimated in the playoffs as well. I hope it doesnt sell out a home game WC game, to show a statement. I wouldnt be shelling out $360 dollars this year. This team isnt worth my money. The ONLY reason, I might consider going is that it could be Ray's last game, that is THE ONLY REASON. Getting rid of my PSL's section 152 because I think they will go down in value. I go to half the games and my kids the other half. 2 seats section 152. Hit me up for offer, going rate is 30-35K for both seats.

All this time I thought you had turned in your fancard months ago...

**steelerhater** · 12-09-2012, 09:03 PM

Originally Posted by lobachevsky

With Cincy & Pitts both losing today, the Ravens are one very-low-probability scenario away from clinching a postseason berth.

Presume the Ravens lose the rest of their regular season games. They limp in at 9-7, 4-2 AFCN, 8-4 AFC, 8-6 in common games with PGH.

The only other team not leading its division with less than 6 losses is the Colts. Presume they get the first wild card at 10-6 or better.

There are 3 other AFC teams currently with 7 losses or less: NYJ, CIN, PGH.

BAL would get the 2nd WC over NYJ on the strength of AFC record, since there's no head-to-head & the Jests have 5 losses in the conference.

CIN plays PGH in Week 16. If PGH wins, CIN finishes 9-7 at best, 2-4 AFCN. If PGH finishes 10-6, it wins the AFCN outright; if PGH finishes at 9-7, then head-to-head results vs the other 2 teams gives PGH the AFCN (PGH 3-1, BAL 2-2, CIN 1-3), BAL eliminates CIN for the wild card based on overall head to head or on divisional record, then eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

If CIN wins out (beats @PHA, @PGH & then BAL) it wins the AFCN at 10-6. Then PGH finishes 9-7 at best, 4-2 AFCN, 8-6 in common games with BAL (both went 1-1 in uncommon games), 5-7 AFC, and BAL eliminates PGH based on better conference record & eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

If CIN loses @PHA but then wins out to finish 9-7, then BAL wins the AFCN if PGH loses again (@DAL or CLE) based on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3). If PGH also finishes 9-7, then head-to-head is a wash in the 3-way trainwreck (all teams at 2-2) and BAL again wins the AFCN, this time on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3 for the others).

In fact there is precisely one way in which the Ravens can now be eliminated from the postseason:

IND finishes no worse than 10-6;
CIN & PGH both win in Week 15 and Week 17; and
CIN@PGH (Week 16) ends in a tie.

In this case both CIN & PGH finish 9-6-1, one wins the AFCN & the other gets the second WC.

So on the first weekend in January it is almost certain that the Ravens will host the Colts as the #4 seed, or travel to Denver or Foxboro as the #6 seed.

Whether you consider that a good or bad thing after the last 2 weeks probably depends on your capacity for generating irrational optimism &/or absorbing bitter heartbreak...

If all three teams (Ravens, steelers, bengals) go 9-7, we win the division. Right now, the Ravens are 4-1 in the division, while the steelers are 2-2. Even if we both go 4-2 in the divison, the steelers have more conference losses. The Bengals have 3 division losses, so they lose the tie-breaker.

Today's loss is a lot more palatable with the steelers & bengals both losing. It guaranteed us no lower than 2nd in the AFC North.

**Boulderraven** · 12-09-2012, 09:03 PM

Originally Posted by pslholder96

All this time I thought you had turned in your fancard months ago...

I have. Just go to half the games, my kids the other half. PSL is valuable but can see it going down in price as the Ravens decline. Not a NFL football fan as much, because of many things Rule changes, officiating getting worse. I enjoy the Orioles and baseball more, game is more on the up and up and the Orioles have a bright future. May use money from selling PSL's to buy Oriole Season tickets. I critique the Ravens win or lose, not a well coached team. Nothing anybody can say will change that.

**pslholder96** · 12-09-2012, 09:08 PM

Originally Posted by Boulderraven

I have. Just go to half the games, my kids the other half. PSL is valuable but can see it going down in price as the Ravens decline. Not a NFL football fan as much, because of many things Rule changes, officiating getting worse. I enjoy the Orioles and baseball more, game is more on the up and up and the Orioles have a bright future. May use money from selling PSL's to buy Oriole Season tickets. I critique the Ravens win or lose, not a well coached team. Nothing anybody can say will change that.

You continue to post passionately here, mostly negative of course. Deep down inside you still care so I'm calling BS on your admission

**Boulderraven** · 12-09-2012, 09:13 PM

Originally Posted by pslholder96

You continue to post passionately here, mostly negative of course. Deep down inside you still care so I'm calling BS on your admission

Only on Sundays maybe Monday morning my off days. Wife works some Sunday nights nothing better to do this time of year, too cold to fish or golf and no longer a skier. Boredom. Havent watched a non-raven game this year in it's entirety. Is thier something better to do? Actually finishing up Ken Burns documentaries on Netflix on the WAR and Baseball, incredible you should check it out.

**lobachevsky** · 12-09-2012, 09:20 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

If all three teams (Ravens, steelers, bengals) go 9-7, we win the division. Right now, the Ravens are 4-1 in the division, while the steelers are 2-2. Even if we both go 4-2 in the divison, the steelers have more conference losses. The Bengals have 3 division losses, so they lose the tie-breaker.

Um, I explained all that in the original post. I guess you didn't bother to read it--

Today's loss is a lot more palatable with the steelers & bengals both losing. It guaranteed us no lower than 2nd in the AFC North.

--specifically because as I also explained, there is no such guarantee. If there is a tie between Pittsburgh & Cincinnati & each team wins its other two games & the Ravens lose their last 3, that leaves Pittsburgh winning the division at 9-6-1 on tiebreaks over Cincinnati, also 9-6-1, and the Ravens at 9-7 finish 3rd & (unless the Colts lose their last 3 games) out of the postseason. This (highly improbable) scenario is the only reason the Ravens have not already clinched a playoff spot.

**steelerhater** · 12-09-2012, 09:20 PM

Originally Posted by Boulderraven

Only on Sundays maybe Monday morning my off days. Wife works some Sunday nights nothing better to do this time of year, too cold to fish or golf and no longer a skier. Boredom. Havent watched a non-raven game this year in it's entirety. Is thier something better to do? Actually finishing up Ken Burns documentaries on Netflix on the WAR and Baseball, incredible you should check it out.

Too cold for golf? I didn't care for Ken Burn's baseball series for some reason. f you want to see a really good one, try the 3-part series "When it was a game"

**Boulderraven** · 12-09-2012, 09:21 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

I don't know about that. MLB is still a league of haves and have nots. The Orioles had an amazing season, but now the yankees will probably sign Josh Hamilton and one or two former Cy Young award winners and push their payroll to around $400 million. Its almost impossible to compete with that year in and year out.

The game has not changed cause of the New Rules for Offense and hits and just flat out terrible officiating. Replay was ONLY intended to reverse OBVIOUS BAD CALLS not controversial ones. The call on the feild should stand if not 100% incorrect, the replacement officials were much better using relay than these regular referees. Todays Reed recovery should have stayed Ravens ball, wasnt conclusive enough to CHANGE it.

**StingerNLG** · 12-09-2012, 09:22 PM

"As the Ravens decline"

Smh

Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2

**Boulderraven** · 12-09-2012, 09:24 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

Too cold for golf? I didn't care for Ken Burn's baseball series for some reason. f you want to see a really good one, try the 3-part series "When it was a game"

I'll check that one out, thanks. The one thing I dont like about Ken Burns's is it so NY based. Yankees, Dodgers and Giants and Red Sox are like the only team that existed in some of the episodes. He did a a good job covering the early years of baseball however, and Jackie Robinson and Branch Rickey's impact.

**pslholder96** · 12-09-2012, 09:25 PM

Originally Posted by StingerNLG

"As the Ravens decline"

Smh

Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2

This board is on the decline.....oh wait I'm going to get accused of being a homer in 5, 4,3,2,1......

**steelerhater** · 12-09-2012, 09:25 PM

Originally Posted by Boulderraven

The game has not changed cause of the New Rules for Offense and hits and just flat out terrible officiating. Replay was ONLY intended to reverse OBVIOUS BAD CALLS not controversial ones. The call on the feild should stand if not 100% incorrect, the replacement officials were much better using relay than these regular referees. Todays Reed recovery should have stayed Ravens ball, wasnt conclusive enough to CHANGE it.

Ok, I'll agree with that. It is getting harder to watch.

**LukeDaniel** · 12-09-2012, 09:32 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

If all three teams (Ravens, steelers, bengals) go 9-7, we win the division. Right now, the Ravens are 4-1 in the division, while the steelers are 2-2. Even if we both go 4-2 in the divison, the steelers have more conference losses. The Bengals have 3 division losses, so they lose the tie-breaker.

Today's loss is a lot more palatable with the steelers & bengals both losing. It guaranteed us no lower than 2nd in the AFC North.

The reality is that one more win and the Ravens win the AFCN. 10 wins guarantees us the division. 1 more loss by each of the Steelers and Bengals also carries the same effect as well. We have all head-to-head tiebreakers against CINCY (division record) and Pittsburgh (6 conference losses versus Ravens 2 conference losses and maximum of 4 conference losses). The only way the Ravens are not hosting a playoff game this year is to lose out while the winner of the Cincy/Pittsburgh game wins out.

**iggyman555** · 12-09-2012, 09:42 PM

Originally Posted by LukeDaniel

The reality is that one more win and the Ravens win the AFCN. 10 wins guarantees us the division. 1 more loss by each of the Steelers and Bengals also carries the same effect as well. We have all head-to-head tiebreakers against CINCY (division record) and Pittsburgh (6 conference losses versus Ravens 2 conference losses and maximum of 4 conference losses). The only way the Ravens are not hosting a playoff game this year is to lose out while the winner of the Cincy/Pittsburgh game wins out.

lol what a clusterfuck. should we rest everyone thats injured until the playoffs????

**steelerhater** · 12-09-2012, 09:50 PM

Originally Posted by LukeDaniel

The reality is that one more win and the Ravens win the AFCN. 10 wins guarantees us the division. 1 more loss by each of the Steelers and Bengals also carries the same effect as well. We have all head-to-head tiebreakers against CINCY (division record) and Pittsburgh (6 conference losses versus Ravens 2 conference losses and maximum of 4 conference losses). The only way the Ravens are not hosting a playoff game this year is to lose out while the winner of the Cincy/Pittsburgh game wins out.

What's interesting is that its possible that the Ravens could knock the steelers out of the playoffs by losing to cincy the last game of the season.

**Uli2001** · 12-09-2012, 11:23 PM

Originally Posted by steelerhater

If all three teams (Ravens, steelers, bengals) go 9-7, we win the division. Right now, the Ravens are 4-1 in the division, while the steelers are 2-2. Even if we both go 4-2 in the divison, the steelers have more conference losses. The Bengals have 3 division losses, so they lose the tie-breaker.

Today's loss is a lot more palatable with the steelers & bengals both losing. It guaranteed us no lower than 2nd in the AFC North.

So the Ravens are one win away or one loss away by Steelers and Bengals from clinching the AFC North? If that happens next week, that would mean two weeks to rest the weary for the playoffs. It's like two bye weeks in the playoffs.

**Uli2001** · 12-09-2012, 11:25 PM

Originally Posted by LukeDaniel

The reality is that one more win and the Ravens win the AFCN. 10 wins guarantees us the division. 1 more loss by each of the Steelers and Bengals also carries the same effect as well. We have all head-to-head tiebreakers against CINCY (division record) and Pittsburgh (6 conference losses versus Ravens 2 conference losses and maximum of 4 conference losses). The only way the Ravens are not hosting a playoff game this year is to lose out while the winner of the Cincy/Pittsburgh game wins out.

Thanks. So let's start rooting for Dallas, because the Bengals will most likely lose at Pitt.

**Haloti92** · 12-09-2012, 11:29 PM

Originally Posted by Uli2001

So the Ravens are one win away or one loss away by Steelers and Bengals from clinching the AFC North? If that happens next week, that would mean two weeks to rest the weary for the playoffs. It's like two bye weeks in the playoffs.

Except if New England loses to Houston tomorrow and we beat Denver next week (clinching the AFC North), we can still get the #2 seed and a bye if we win the last two. No way we rest if that is the case.

We might rest the last game of the season if the only thing that is possible for us is the #3 or #4 seed (not much if any difference between them, in fact one could argue the #4 seed is better because it will likely mean facing the Colts instead of either Cincy or Pitt).

**Boulderraven** · 12-09-2012, 11:32 PM

Originally Posted by Haloti92

Except if New England loses to Houston tomorrow and we beat Denver next week (clinching the AFC North), we can still get the #2 seed and a bye if we win the last two. No way we rest if that is the case.

We might rest the last game of the season if the only thing that is possible for us is the #3 or #4 seed (not much if any difference between them, in fact one could argue the #4 seed is better because it will likely mean facing the Colts instead of either Cincy or Pitt).

What if by Miracle Ravens win out but NE beats Houston but lose to SF and Denver wins out after losing to Ravens? Who is number 2?