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  1. #37
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    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs



    Quote Originally Posted by steelerhater View Post
    If all three teams (Ravens, steelers, bengals) go 9-7, we win the division. Right now, the Ravens are 4-1 in the division, while the steelers are 2-2. Even if we both go 4-2 in the divison, the steelers have more conference losses. The Bengals have 3 division losses, so they lose the tie-breaker.

    Today's loss is a lot more palatable with the steelers & bengals both losing. It guaranteed us no lower than 2nd in the AFC North.
    So the Ravens are one win away or one loss away by Steelers and Bengals from clinching the AFC North? If that happens next week, that would mean two weeks to rest the weary for the playoffs. It's like two bye weeks in the playoffs.




  2. #38
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    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The reality is that one more win and the Ravens win the AFCN. 10 wins guarantees us the division. 1 more loss by each of the Steelers and Bengals also carries the same effect as well. We have all head-to-head tiebreakers against CINCY (division record) and Pittsburgh (6 conference losses versus Ravens 2 conference losses and maximum of 4 conference losses). The only way the Ravens are not hosting a playoff game this year is to lose out while the winner of the Cincy/Pittsburgh game wins out.
    Thanks. So let's start rooting for Dallas, because the Bengals will most likely lose at Pitt.




  3. #39

    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Uli2001 View Post
    So the Ravens are one win away or one loss away by Steelers and Bengals from clinching the AFC North? If that happens next week, that would mean two weeks to rest the weary for the playoffs. It's like two bye weeks in the playoffs.
    Except if New England loses to Houston tomorrow and we beat Denver next week (clinching the AFC North), we can still get the #2 seed and a bye if we win the last two. No way we rest if that is the case.

    We might rest the last game of the season if the only thing that is possible for us is the #3 or #4 seed (not much if any difference between them, in fact one could argue the #4 seed is better because it will likely mean facing the Colts instead of either Cincy or Pitt).




  4. #40

    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Except if New England loses to Houston tomorrow and we beat Denver next week (clinching the AFC North), we can still get the #2 seed and a bye if we win the last two. No way we rest if that is the case.

    We might rest the last game of the season if the only thing that is possible for us is the #3 or #4 seed (not much if any difference between them, in fact one could argue the #4 seed is better because it will likely mean facing the Colts instead of either Cincy or Pitt).
    What if by Miracle Ravens win out but NE beats Houston but lose to SF and Denver wins out after losing to Ravens? Who is number 2?




  5. #41
    Join Date
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    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    I agree with you on how the NFL in general is going. It seems like it will be flag football eventually.
    It won't be long until the NFFL (National Flag Football League). I could not believe that they called a penalty on Ngata for pushing RG3 in the chest. The NFL until Goodall has lost it's way.




  6. #42

    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Boulderraven View Post
    What if by Miracle Ravens win out but NE beats Houston but lose to SF and Denver wins out after losing to Ravens? Who is number 2?
    Same thing, we do. I should have said if New England loses this week or next and we beat Denver (in terms of making a decision on resting for the last two weeks).

    If we beat Denver and we finish with the same record as Denver and New England, we get the #2 seed because of head-to-head sweep of both of them.




  7. #43
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    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Playoffs!!!??? Playoffs??!! We talkin bout playoffs??!! We can't even win a game!




  8. #44
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    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by Jsmoove View Post
    Playoffs!!!??? Playoffs??!! We talkin bout playoffs??!! We can't even win a game!
    They're gonna back into the postseason. The only scenario that shuts them out is one where the CIN@PGH game in Week 16 ends in a tie (& each wins its other 2 games & the Ravens lose out). Over the last 10 years there have been exactly 2 ties in over 2,560 games. Do the math.




  9. #45

    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by lobachevsky View Post
    They're gonna back into the postseason. The only scenario that shuts them out is one where the CIN@PGH game in Week 16 ends in a tie (& each wins its other 2 games & the Ravens lose out). Over the last 10 years there have been exactly 2 ties in over 2,560 games. Do the math.
    The odds are very long but nowhere near as long as the odds implied by those numbers because of the OT rule changes. We will be seeing many more ties going forward than we did when OT was sudden death. Count on it.




  10. #46

    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by StingerNLG View Post
    "As the Ravens decline"

    Smh

    Sent from my Xoom using Tapatalk 2
    The Ravens have gone into decline though...

    at least from the standpoint of healthy bodies.

    They're running out of them--especially on defense.




  11. #47

    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by lobachevsky View Post
    With Cincy & Pitts both losing today, the Ravens are one very-low-probability scenario away from clinching a postseason berth.

    Presume the Ravens lose the rest of their regular season games. They limp in at 9-7, 4-2 AFCN, 8-4 AFC, 8-6 in common games with PGH.

    The only other team not leading its division with less than 6 losses is the Colts. Presume they get the first wild card at 10-6 or better.

    There are 3 other AFC teams currently with 7 losses or less: NYJ, CIN, PGH.

    BAL would get the 2nd WC over NYJ on the strength of AFC record, since there's no head-to-head & the Jests have 5 losses in the conference.

    CIN plays PGH in Week 16. If PGH wins, CIN finishes 9-7 at best, 2-4 AFCN. If PGH finishes 10-6, it wins the AFCN outright; if PGH finishes at 9-7, then head-to-head results vs the other 2 teams gives PGH the AFCN (PGH 3-1, BAL 2-2, CIN 1-3), BAL eliminates CIN for the wild card based on overall head to head or on divisional record, then eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

    If CIN wins out (beats @PHA, @PGH & then BAL) it wins the AFCN at 10-6. Then PGH finishes 9-7 at best, 4-2 AFCN, 8-6 in common games with BAL (both went 1-1 in uncommon games), 5-7 AFC, and BAL eliminates PGH based on better conference record & eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

    If CIN loses @PHA but then wins out to finish 9-7, then BAL wins the AFCN if PGH loses again (@DAL or CLE) based on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3). If PGH also finishes 9-7, then head-to-head is a wash in the 3-way trainwreck (all teams at 2-2) and BAL again wins the AFCN, this time on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3 for the others).

    In fact there is precisely one way in which the Ravens can now be eliminated from the postseason:
    1. IND finishes no worse than 10-6;
    2. CIN & PGH both win in Week 15 and Week 17; and
    3. CIN@PGH (Week 16) ends in a tie.

    In this case both CIN & PGH finish 9-6-1, one wins the AFCN & the other gets the second WC.

    So on the first weekend in January it is almost certain that the Ravens will host the Colts as the #4 seed, or travel to Denver or Foxboro as the #6 seed.

    Whether you consider that a good or bad thing after the last 2 weeks probably depends on your capacity for generating irrational optimism &/or absorbing bitter heartbreak...
    I am amazed you had the energy to figure this out after such a disheartening loss. After walking several miles to get to the parking lot in outer Raljon and then waiting to get out of the lot, getting stuck on exit roads, and finally sitting on the DC Beltway for 1/2 an hour, I did not have the energy to do anything. Arguing with my wife while listening to the knuckleheads on WBAL radio repeat over and over how our offense stinks (without ever saying get rid of Cam) was the last straw. When I finally got home last night I got into bed, balled up in the fetal position, and tried unsuccessfully not to think about how miserable this week and the rest of the month will be.

    Oh well it's Christmas. Maybe I will just watch A Christmas story and Mr Magoo's Christmas Carol over and over again. That will be better than watching the team I love self destuct over the next few weeks to Archie's offspring.

    I invest way too much emotional capital in these games.
    Last edited by ed from Bel Air; 12-10-2012 at 04:10 AM.




  12. #48
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    Re: The Ravens are 99+% certain of going to the playoffs

    Quote Originally Posted by lobachevsky View Post
    With Cincy & Pitts both losing today, the Ravens are one very-low-probability scenario away from clinching a postseason berth.

    Presume the Ravens lose the rest of their regular season games. They limp in at 9-7, 4-2 AFCN, 8-4 AFC, 8-6 in common games with PGH.

    The only other team not leading its division with less than 6 losses is the Colts. Presume they get the first wild card at 10-6 or better.

    There are 3 other AFC teams currently with 7 losses or less: NYJ, CIN, PGH.

    BAL would get the 2nd WC over NYJ on the strength of AFC record, since there's no head-to-head & the Jests have 5 losses in the conference.

    CIN plays PGH in Week 16. If PGH wins, CIN finishes 9-7 at best, 2-4 AFCN. If PGH finishes 10-6, it wins the AFCN outright; if PGH finishes at 9-7, then head-to-head results vs the other 2 teams gives PGH the AFCN (PGH 3-1, BAL 2-2, CIN 1-3), BAL eliminates CIN for the wild card based on overall head to head or on divisional record, then eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

    If CIN wins out (beats @PHA, @PGH & then BAL) it wins the AFCN at 10-6. Then PGH finishes 9-7 at best, 4-2 AFCN, 8-6 in common games with BAL (both went 1-1 in uncommon games), 5-7 AFC, and BAL eliminates PGH based on better conference record & eliminates NYJ if necessary as above.

    If CIN loses @PHA but then wins out to finish 9-7, then BAL wins the AFCN if PGH loses again (@DAL or CLE) based on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3). If PGH also finishes 9-7, then head-to-head is a wash in the 3-way trainwreck (all teams at 2-2) and BAL again wins the AFCN, this time on better division record (4-2 vs 3-3 for the others).

    In fact there is precisely one way in which the Ravens can now be eliminated from the postseason:
    1. IND finishes no worse than 10-6;
    2. CIN & PGH both win in Week 15 and Week 17; and
    3. CIN@PGH (Week 16) ends in a tie.

    In this case both CIN & PGH finish 9-6-1, one wins the AFCN & the other gets the second WC.

    So on the first weekend in January it is almost certain that the Ravens will host the Colts as the #4 seed, or travel to Denver or Foxboro as the #6 seed.

    Whether you consider that a good or bad thing after the last 2 weeks probably depends on your capacity for generating irrational optimism &/or absorbing bitter heartbreak...
    OUTSTANDING!

    This post has inspired me to add a new feature to the front end of the site that we'll call "Message Board Star" and we'll post as a blog forum posts that just stand out...and this one did.

    Here's the link


    Thanks Lobachevsky!!!
    Follow me on Twitter @ russellstreport




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