Game Thread -- Texans @ Patriots (Keeping an Eye on the Playoff Competition)

[lobachevsky]

Then again, if Flacco and the Ravens step up the game after their main excuse has been removed and beat Denver, I don't think us winning out is all that unlikely.

If they can beat the Nags here, they can beat the Giants here. Divisional games are always a crapshoot but at that point you're right, it's not that improbable.

And if the Colts win out and we win out, we get the #2 seed at worst, and the #1 seed with one more Patriots loss. All of it is longish odds, us winning out, the Colts winning out and the Pats losing again. But that is the optimum, and as long as it is still possible, I'll be rooting for it.

Nope, longer odds even that that. If the Pats, Ravens & any other team all finish at 12-4, head to head is out & NE still gets the #1 seed via best conference record (10-2 at worst). The only way for Baltimore to get #1 seed with the Pats losing only once more is for Houston to lose out, Indy to choke at KC, & Denver to lose at home either to Cleveland or Oakland, leaving NE and BAL alone at 12-4, whence head to head kicks in. Otherwise the Pats would need to lose twice in their last 3 games.

The funny thing about that scenario you are worried about, where the Colts get the #3 seed, we get the #4 seed...

Just FTR, I am not "worried" about that scenario--it's unnerving to me because this should've been a rebuilding year for the Hosses & yet they're right in the thick of things. If the Ravens start at #4 at home vs Houston and Indy is at #3 playing the Stealers, it could be a blessing--handle the Texans, get by the #2 seed (probably Denver) at their house, & if the Pittsburgh defense rises to their challenges, you'd have the AFCC game a classic AFC North slugfest at M&T.

[Haloti92]

Nope, longer odds even that that. If the Pats, Ravens & any other team all finish at 12-4, head to head is out & NE still gets the #1 seed via best conference record (10-2 at worst). The only way for Baltimore to get #1 seed with the Pats losing only once more is for Houston to lose out, Indy to choke at KC, & Denver to lose at home either to Cleveland or Oakland, leaving NE and BAL alone at 12-4, whence head to head kicks in. Otherwise the Pats would need to lose twice in their last 3 games.

You are right that NE needs a specific loss, to Miami or Jax, losing to SF doesn't do the trick. If we win out we finish 10-2 in the AFC. If NE loses another game to an AFC team (Miami or Jax) then they also finish 10-2 in Conference. The Colts and Denver can only finish 9-3 in the AFC at best (assuming we win out, which gives Denver their 4th loss and 3rd AFC loss).

And in a 4-way tie at 12-4 of Ravens, Pats, Broncos, and Colts, there is no head-to-head sweep (or swept) involved, so next step is Conference record. That would eliminate Broncos and Colts and then the tie between us and NE starts over at head-to-head. So we get the #1 seed. But again, you are right that the Pats need their one loss to come in their final two games (vs. AFC).

Also, it looks like if Houston finishes 12-4 and wins their division by splitting with the Colts and losing to Minny, and NE loses to Jax or Miami, and we win out, then it would go to strength of victory, as head-to-head doesn't work (no sweeps/swept), Conference all 10-2, common games does not apply (no 4 in common for all teams), next is strength of victory (havent checked yet who likely wins).

If Houston finished 12-4 and wins division after getting swept by Colts but seeing the Colts lose to KC to finish 11-5, then Houston's AFC record becomes 9-3, and they are eliminated early, leaving us and NE at 10-2 which is broken again with head-to-head in our favor.

And....If Houston and the Colts do finish 11-5 and the Pats (regardless of where their loss comes from), Ravens and Denver finish 12-4 then we get #1 due to head-to-head sweep of both of them. Wouldn't even get to Conference record where NE could be one game better than us.

It actually looks like if we win out, Houston finishes 12-4 (or worse), and NE loses an AFC game (not gonna happen, I know), then we get the #1 seed in almost every possible case. Still have to sort out the strength of victory situation in a Hou-NE-Ravens 3-way tie where all teams 12-4 overall and 10-2 in conference.