A thought I had...

[Paintballguy]

That's really, really wrong.


(Completion% - 30) X 0.05 = A
(Yards/Attempts - 3) X 0.25 = B
TD% X 0.2 = C
2.375 - (INT% X 0.25) = D

(A + B + C + D)/6 = _______ X 100 = QB Rating

(50-30) * 0.05 = 1
(6.35 - 3) * 0.025 = 0.8374
5 * 0.2 = 1
2.375 - (2.5 * 0.25) = 1.75

(1 + 0.8374 + 1 + 1.75) /6 = 0.765 * 100 = 76.5 QB Rating.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/69...-total-qbr-faq



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[wickedsolo]

Ok, this is an article explaining ESPN's total QB rating:
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/68...terback-rating

[wickedsolo]

Why ESPN has a different system than the NFL is weird.

[Haloti92]

That's really, really wrong.


(Completion% - 30) X 0.05 = A
(Yards/Attempts - 3) X 0.25 = B
TD% X 0.2 = C
2.375 - (INT% X 0.25) = D

(A + B + C + D)/6 = _______ X 100 = QB Rating

(50-30) * 0.05 = 1
(6.35 - 3) * 0.025 = 0.8374
5 * 0.2 = 1
2.375 - (2.5 * 0.25) = 1.75

(1 + 0.8374 + 1 + 1.75) /6 = 0.765 * 100 = 76.5 QB Rating.

QBR is not the same thing as Passer or QB rating.

"QBR" is a proprietary rating used by ESPN. It grades QBs play-by-play using its own metric. It supposedly takes into account performance vs. expectation depending on game circumstance and the play itself. So whereas the traditional Passer rating would count a 2 yard pass and 38 yards of YAC the same as a 40 yard sideline throw with 0 YAC, the QBR metric would give the QB very little to no credit for the former and plenty of credit for the latter. Same goes with prevent/meaningless stats (i.e. almost all of Joe's today).

[wickedsolo]

QBR is not the same thing as Passer or QB rating.

"QBR" is a proprietary rating used by ESPN. It grades QBs play-by-play using its own metric. It supposedly takes into account performance vs. expectation depending on game circumstance and the play itself. So whereas the traditional Passer rating would count a 2 yard pass and 38 yards of YAC the same as a 40 yard sideline throw with 0 YAC, the QBR metric would give the QB very little to no credit for the former and plenty of credit for the latter. Same goes with prevent/meaningless stats (i.e. almost all of Joe's today).

Got it.

I was not aware that ESPN had their own system for the QB rating.

Regardless, I've always felt that the QBR the NFL uses is not a good statistic to uses as an argument. Obviously, a bulk of Flacco's 254 yards and 2 TD's came in garbage time when the game was already over.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

That's really, really wrong.


(Completion% - 30) X 0.05 = A
(Yards/Attempts - 3) X 0.25 = B
TD% X 0.2 = C
2.375 - (INT% X 0.25) = D

(A + B + C + D)/6 = _______ X 100 = QB Rating

(50-30) * 0.05 = 1
(6.35 - 3) * 0.025 = 0.8374
5 * 0.2 = 1
2.375 - (2.5 * 0.25) = 1.75

(1 + 0.8374 + 1 + 1.75) /6 = 0.765 * 100 = 76.5 QB Rating.

QBR takes into account things like the garbage TD's Joe got.

It isn't perfect, and anybody who lives by it is wrong, but it takes more into account than simply saying Joe threw for 2 TD's today, so his TD's impacted the game the same as a QB who throws 2 TD's while down 2 scores to win the game.

This explains what it is and how they get their numbers and these are the rankings before today I believe.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

Why ESPN has a different system than the NFL is weird.

NFL's system is just pure numbers in a vaccum.

QBR is not perfect, but at least attempts to take into account the quality of the opposing team and the amount that the stats accumulated actually impact the game.

It's nothing to live by, but it's better IMHO than just looking at pure stats.

Both don't paint Joe in a pretty light though. He's about average in both.

[wickedsolo]

NFL's system is just pure numbers in a vaccum.

QBR is not perfect, but at least attempts to take into account the quality of the opposing team and the amount that the stats accumulated actually impact the game.

It's nothing to live by, but it's better IMHO than just looking at pure stats.

Both don't paint Joe in a pretty light though. He's about average in both.

I agree and honestly that is why I try not to use stats on here. I find things like PFF and what Filmstudy does interesting, but it doesn't tell the whole story in a lot of circumstances.

[Loco Ravens Fan]

I agree with pretty much everything you've said except dumping Flacco for Flynn.

#1 - At this point, Flacco has played himself out of a big time contract. No way in hell he is getting a major deal.
#2 - What has Matt Flynn done? He had 1 big game...and that's it. Case and point dude - Joe Philbin didn't even want Flynn enough to get him in Miami and he had NO quarterback there.

Now, if they brought in Flynn as a contingency plan...cool.

First, I have been upset about Joe Flacco most of the season. His irratic play this season has to be a major concern for the Ravens. And even though Joe has played horribly this year except for a few games, he will be franchised and receive a contract equal to the average of the top 5 qb salaries. That will be a lot of money for an inconsistent qb who displays ZERO pocket awareness. The Ravens need to bring in a qb who could compete for the #1 qb position with Joe. But they won't!

[wickedsolo]

First, I have been upset about Joe Flacco most of the season. His irratic play this season has to be a major concern for the Ravens. And even though Joe has played horribly this year except for a few games, he will be franchised and receive a contract equal to the average of the top 5 qb salaries. That will be a lot of money for an inconsistent qb who displays ZERO pocket awareness. The Ravens need to bring in a qb who could compete for the #1 qb position with Joe. But they won't!

Who?

And, at this point, I sincerely doubt that Steve Bisciotti is chomping at the bit to sign Flacco to a top 5 contract.

[wickedsolo]

At this point, I think Kevin Kolb's contract he signed with Arizona is a good low point to start negotiations from.

5 years, $63 mill with $21 guaranteed.

That is an average (raw...not legitimate average) of about 12 mill per year.

And say what you want, but Flacco is better than Kolb. A lot better.

6 years, 80 mill with 30 guaranteed.

That is about an average of 13 mill/year.

I would also set the contract up so that if after a year or two Flacco really isn't cutting it, they can get out of the contract without having a massive amount of dead money cap hit.

[Haloti92]

Who?

And, at this point, I sincerely doubt that Steve Bisciotti is chomping at the bit to sign Flacco to a top 5 contract.

I think he meant the 1-year franchise tag gives Flacco a one-year salary/contract equal to the average of the top 5 salaries at the position.

Yeah, the plausible arguments that Flacco deserves a long-term deal in the top-5 range I think (hope) are over. The risk would be massive; almost blind faith to pay that much.

[wickedsolo]

I think he meant the 1-year franchise tag gives Flacco a one-year salary/contract equalt to the average of the top 5 salaries at the position.

Yeah, the plausible argument that Flacco deserves a long-term deal in the top-5 range I think (hope) are over. The risk would be massive; almost blind faith to pay that much.

I can't see it. I just can't.

I like Flacco and REALLY want him to succeed and be the man, but I can't see a mega deal like that.

Maybe Flacco would be interested in a 3 year deal averaging around 12-13 mill per year. That gives him more time to "prove it" under a new coordinator with (hopefully) better pieces around him.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

First, I have been upset about Joe Flacco most of the season. His irratic play this season has to be a major concern for the Ravens. And even though Joe has played horribly this year except for a few games, he will be franchised and receive a contract equal to the average of the top 5 qb salaries. That will be a lot of money for an inconsistent qb who displays ZERO pocket awareness. The Ravens need to bring in a qb who could compete for the #1 qb position with Joe. But they won't!

The once in a lifetime chance passed this year when Peyton was available.

The best QB's that will be out on the market likely will be Vick and Flynn.

Neither IMHO are any better.

And there is no way in hell Joe is getting a top 5 contract unless he blows the doors off the NFL next year.

He will be franchised, and under a ton of pressure in 2013.

[Haloti92]

At this point, I think Kevin Kolb's contract he signed with Arizona is a good low point to start negotiations from.

5 years, $63 mill with $21 guaranteed.

That is an average (raw...not legitimate average) of about 12 mill per year.

And say what you want, but Flacco is better than Kolb. A lot better.

6 years, 80 mill with 30 guaranteed.

That is about an average of 13 mill/year.

I would also set the contract up so that if after a year or two Flacco really isn't cutting it, they can get out of the contract without having a massive amount of dead money cap hit.

But Kolb is overpaid, so Flacco > Kolb therefore Flacco contract > Kolb contract may not be such a given.

I personally think that if Joe gets overpaid somewhere else it would be a bad team that overpays. I also think Flacco would look worse, and certainly no better, on one of those bad teams, for all the reasons people are using to excuse how bad he looks around here on his off days (i.e. the rest of the team is not good enough).

[bmorecareful]

Think you need to read it again. You said that if he plays well over the next few games all that proves is that he is not one of the worst QBs in the leagu which could be taken as you right now, think he is one of the worst QBs in the league.

After carefully re-reading my post, I understand how you could have legitimately misconstrued it. Let me be clear: Flacco is not one of the worst QBs in the league. He is average, because he combines 50% great with 50% terrible.

IF he goes on a hot streak to close out the season, he'll prove that he's better than he showed today (which was one of the worst QB displays you'll see). But that's no better than he's been able to do throughout his career.

I hope I've clarified my position. Sorry for the confusion.

[wickedsolo]

But Kolb is overpaid, so Flacco > Kolb therefore Flacco contract > Kolb contract may not be such a given.

I personally think that if Joe gets overpaid somewhere else it would be a bad team that overpays. I also thin Flacco would look worse, and certainly no better, on one of those bad teams, for all the reasons people are using to excuse how bad he looks around here on his off days (i.e. the rest of the team is not good enough).

Kolb being overpaid isn't really the point though. His contract set the market (right or wrong) for a QB of Kolb's caliber.

Just going from there, Flacco is worth that contract, IMO. Maybe slightly more.

I do agree that if Flacco were to hit the open market he would be given a massive deal and it would be from a bad team.

[wickedsolo]

Fitzpatrick's deal last year in Buffalo was 6 year, $59 mill with $24 guaranteed.

[Haloti92]

Kolb being overpaid isn't really the point though. His contract set the market (right or wrong) for a QB of Kolb's caliber.

Just going from there, Flacco is worth that contract, IMO. Maybe slightly more.

I do agree that if Flacco were to hit the open market he would be given a massive deal and it would be from a bad team.

And Rice and Arian > Chris Johnson. Sometimes, clear misses can be ignored. Plus you have Alex Smith signing for $8M per after getting as close to the SB as Joe and looking decent this year.

I am not saying Joe won't ask for (a lot) more than Kolb. And I am not saying the Ravens won't pay more than that.

I am just saying that if we were truly trying to find a "fair" value for the contract we would realize that Kolb's number would not be offered to Kolb if one knew what Kolb would look like after the deal.

In other words, it was incorrectly priced and can be argued as such. Then again, that happens a lot for QBs because a lot of teams are desperate. But at the same time, these desperate teams are usually bad, for considerable periods of time, perhaps because they offer desperate over-priced contracts (to QBs). I guess my bottomline is that just because some team will offer Joe more than he is truly worth (like they did to Kolb), doesn't mean I think the Ravens should.

[RavenMan]

After carefully re-reading my post, I understand how you could have legitimately misconstrued it. Let me be clear: Flacco is not one of the worst QBs in the league. He is average, because he combines 50% great with 50% terrible.

IF he goes on a hot streak to close out the season, he'll prove that he's better than he showed today (which was one of the worst QB displays you'll see). But that's no better than he's been able to do throughout his career.

I hope I've clarified my position. Sorry for the confusion.

Apologize for the misunderstanding but in no way was his game today one of the worst QB displays I have ever seen, even Joe has had worse games than this for God's sake.

See I have no issue with people criticizing players for bad play but statements like that bmorecareful are just wrong, its like you are trying to prove that he is a bad QB now.

And what if he does go on a hotstreak and looking at the playcalling and the plays run it is better than what has been done under Cam, would that not mean that maybe under a new system with a new OC he might be able to be better than average which I think he is already. Still too few games to be sure either way I think.