Luck Overrated?

[LouisianaRaven]

Sure Andrew Luck is really good but how good. He's thrown for 4,374 yards, 23 TD and 18 INT while rushing for 200+ yards... However he is completing just 54% of his passes... When did those numbers become great? Maybe eventually he'll become great and win multiple Super Bowls. However, he's not there as of now. Everyone says that he has complete control over the offense but fails to mention his stats.. He's good but c'mon, he's not even close to great yet. It's just amazing that he gets so much love. Some people say he's a top 5 QB already. The Ravens defense isn't great but they should be able to control Luck. I think this just shows the media bias. Flacco has thrown for 3,817 yds and 22 TD and 10 INT and 59.7 completion %... The average fan considers him just average yet he takes the blame for every Ravens playoff loss... Yet every win is because of the defense. I just had to get this out of my head. Crazy how the media and the average fans have certain guys that they show favoritism towards. Meanwhile if Atlanta loses they're already blaming Roddy White. Yet they just said that Matt Ryan is an MVP candidate. I just thought I would share.

[RavenScallywag]

You should peek into our debate about Romo or Flacco. What things are hinging on as of late is "with the game on the line, Flacco seems to step up while Romo chokes."

Luck may have thrown a lot of INTs and have a lowered (but not bad) completion %...but he certainly had some good comeback wins this year. I think a big reason for his lower incompletions is taking deep shots to Hilton. Kind've like Joe to Torrey, that deep bomb is really a setup to get the D respecting the WR's speed. But often, it's a throw that isn't completed and in the stat sheet, shows as a negative. But you can bet the CB we have on Hilton is going to be ready to turn his back and run a 9 route with Hilton. You can't let him get deep with a step on you.

[LouisianaRaven]

Yeah, Cary has played better though... I think our defense has gotten better also. We just have to stay discipline and play for 60 mins. We've played some elite Qbs but I don't think he's one, atleast not yet.

[Ravens44]

That's part of what this game is about, I think.

Luck has performed very well and observers think he will be very good very soon and I actually agree with that.
And he has led the team, which has a 26th rated defense.
So, he is being given alot of credit for raising them to a 11-5 record.
Heck, I know and agree how they down talk Flacco.
And we know why he doesn't have a ring right now.

But I will give Luck his props for doing what he does.
He is very talented and has a bright future.
Let the media talk all they want.
They predicted if the Ravens put it all on Flacco that they would not win the division or get to the playoffs.
And we all saw how that worked out.

None of those talking heads will mention those failed predictions, yet they still dump on him.
I don't care anymore what they say. It is biased and that's what the NFL wants.

Hopefully, the Ravens rise up and play to their potential and stun everyone.
If our Ravens come out and play like they did in the first game of the year, people will change their tunes at least a little. Right now, they are beginning to believe and Ray is leading the charge.
It is up to Flacco to seal the deal. I am looking forward to it. I CAN'T WAIT!

[LouisianaRaven]

Pretty much what you said... Being the only Ravens fan in my area, I just need somewhere to vent sometimes lol. Generally I just laugh at what the "experts" say but sometimes it's too hard to resist saying something.

[jonboy79]

I would say quite hte opposite.

Russell Wilson and RGIII are stealing his thunder... sure, they have "prettier" stats, but they also are asked to do FAR less. Both are more complimentary players on their team That's not intended to be a slight to 2 good-great rookie QB's, jsut reality that they are asked to be less of a factor in whether their team wins or loses.

Indy has a terrible run game, terrible Oline and terrible D... yet they made the playoffs. THey made he playoffs almost exclusively on the back of Luck. SEA and WAS both have great lines, great runnign games and great defenses.

edit... and oh yeah, receiving corps too... slanted away from Indy as far as those 3 teams are concerned... but closer then the rest of the teams.

[Ravenswintitle]

I would say quite hte opposite.

Russell Wilson and RGIII are stealing his thunder... sure, they have "prettier" stats, but they also are asked to do FAR less. Both are more complimentary players on their team That's not intended to be a slight to 2 good-great rookie QB's, jsut reality that they are asked to be less of a factor in whether their team wins or loses.

Indy has a terrible run game, terrible Oline and terrible D... yet they made the playoffs. THey made he playoffs almost exclusively on the back of Luck. SEA and WAS both have great lines, great runnign games and great defenses.

Agreed with this. RGIII is using basically a one read scheme. Luck is doing it all with a minimal support cast. I'm not sure about 'overrated' but the kid is very good.

[Knox Harrington]

I think a big reason for his lower incompletions is taking deep shots to Hilton. Kind've like Joe to Torrey, that deep bomb is really a setup to get the D respecting the WR's speed.

yeah, but how many deep bombs are thrown a game to where it alters you're completion % to below 50%?

I don't think Luck is overrated, but he has at times struggled this year. In saying that, Luck should be a very good NFL QB barring injury. He has all the tools and ability to make the throws, prob needs another 15-20 games to put it all together though.

BTW, here are his stats for his last 8 games-

@JAC- 18-26att/comp 227 yds 69.2 comp% 0td 1int 93.7qb rtg
@NE - 27-50 334 54.0 2 3 47.1
vs BUF-20-37 240 54.1 1 1 67.2
@ DET- 24 54 391 60.0 4 3 70.8
vs TEN-16 34 196 47.1 1 2 50.6
@ HOU- 13 27 186 48.1 2 0 95.6
@ KC- 17 35 205 48.6 1 0 76.5
vs HOU-14 28 191 50.0 2 0 96.0

[Carey]

I dont believe so, he's my rookie of the year. Imo for him to run that offense with the freedom and responsibility he has behind that O-Line, average backs, and their pass catcher's beside Wayne arent of the caliber you'd see on a playoff team. I think as they get better talent he'll be better stats wise, as well as his own improvement but he's already a very good QB. I think if you put him on the Redskins and asked him to run that offense(outside of the read option)with those weapons and what they ask RG3 to do in the pass game i think he'd put up better numbers as a passer then what RG3 did.

[LouisianaRaven]

I don't think anyone's saying Luck isn't good but it seems as if his stats don't backup the hype. He's good but if he wasn't drafted 1st would he be considered as good with those numbers. It doesn't seem likely. At this point I believe RG3 is better. Maybe Luck will have the better career but NOW, RG3 is better. You can't discredit his numbers because of the offense he runs. Without RG3's speed and quickness then WSH can't run that offense. I think sometimes we look 5 years ahead instead of NOW.

[GOTA]

Luck has a no running game behind him, a crap offensive line in front of him and an old Reggie Wayne plus a group of no name receivers to throw to. Add to the that the fact that he's a rookie and I can't see how anyone can't be impressed. I wouldn't put him in the top 5 QBs this year but he has a real shot at it next year. Imagine how good he'd be with a Ray Rice.

[jonboy79]

I don't think anyone's saying Luck isn't good but it seems as if his stats don't backup the hype. He's good but if he wasn't drafted 1st would he be considered as good with those numbers. It doesn't seem likely. At this point I believe RG3 is better. Maybe Luck will have the better career but NOW, RG3 is better. You can't discredit his numbers because of the offense he runs. Without RG3's speed and quickness then WSH can't run that offense. I think sometimes we look 5 years ahead instead of NOW.

again, I disagree. I think it's far more impressive what Luck did with so little, compared to what RGIII did with what is a VERY good team. Sure, RGIII diddn't throw many picks, because he wasn't often in a position where the team NEEDED him to throw it all game long....

Look at Peyton's rookie year stas with a similar trash Indy team... very similar, except for the wins.

RGIII had the better year, but IMO there is very little doubt Luck will have the better, longer career.

[LukeDaniel]

-

@JAC- 18-26att/comp 227 yds 69.2 comp% 0td 1int 93.7qb rtg
@NE - 27-50 334 54.0 2 3 47.1
vs BUF-20-37 240 54.1 1 1 67.2
@ DET- 24 54 391 60.0 4 3 70.8
vs TEN-16 34 196 47.1 1 2 50.6
@ HOU- 13 27 186 48.1 2 0 95.6
@ KC- 17 35 205 48.6 1 0 76.5
vs HOU-14 28 191 50.0 2 0 96.0

That's 13 INTs and 10 TD against some absolutely awful defenses. Even Houston's pass D by season's end was atrocious.

[LouisianaRaven]

The Colts are 11-5, there has to be some talent on that team. Reggie Wayne is still a top 10 receiver and Fleener has as much talent as any TE out there. Is Torrey that much different than Hilton? No one's saying they're the most talented but they have some players too. If you're gonna give Luck all of this credit then you have to get RG3 just as much. The skins were terrible last year too. Their defense isn't great and Garçon missed half the year with injuries and Orakpo got hurt early in the year.

[GOTA]

I give credit to RGIII too. I think he has a big future ahead of him as long as he stays in a Shanahan offense. With a different coach he'd have a much tougher time.

Can anyone remember a year where 3 rookie QBs were starting in the playoffs? It's pretty amazing.

[moose10101]

yeah, but how many deep bombs are thrown a game to where it alters you're completion % to below 50%?

FWIW, he's below 60% for all distances, and right around 50% in the 20+ yardage range:

http://www.nfl.com/player/andrewluck...tuationalstats

[jonboy79]

The Colts are 11-5, there has to be some talent on that team. Reggie Wayne is still a top 10 receiver and Fleener has as much talent as any TE out there. Is Torrey that much different than Hilton? No one's saying they're the most talented but they have some players too. If you're gonna give Luck all of this credit then you have to get RG3 just as much. The skins were terrible last year too. Their defense isn't great and Garçon missed half the year with injuries and Orakpo got hurt early in the year.

No, I'm sorry, I don't follow that at all. Reggie Wayne MAY still be top 20, maybe. Hilton is a cross between Torrey and Yamon Figurs. Fleener is worse then Pitta, at least to this point, and they had literally no one that could run the ball at all. Their D is Freeney, Mathis and a bunch of our castoff and some PS level players.

Washington was FAR more well equipped to win now. They went all out at WR, including Garcon, and also struch gold with Alfred Morris. They have the number 1 rushing offense and a pretty killer Oline. THeir D may not be top flight, but they are satisfactoruy.


I think, literally every single position group besides QB favors WAS, and yet Indy had a better record then WAS and heck, even BAL.

[bmorecareful]

No, I'm sorry, I don't follow that at all. Reggie Wayne MAY still be top 20, maybe. Hilton is a cross between Torrey and Yamon Figurs. Fleener is worse then Pitta, at least to this point, and they had literally no one that could run the ball at all. Their D is Freeney, Mathis and a bunch of our castoff and some PS level players.

Washington was FAR more well equipped to win now. They went all out at WR, including Garcon, and also struch gold with Alfred Morris. They have the number 1 rushing offense and a pretty killer Oline. THeir D may not be top flight, but they are satisfactoruy.


I think, literally every single position group besides QB favors WAS, and yet Indy had a better record then WAS and heck, even BAL.

Reggie Wayne isn't top 20. He's top 10, maybe top 5. He was one of the best receivers in all of football this year, full stop. I believe Pro Football Focus ranked him as the 2nd or 3rd best WR for 2012. You're also underrating some of their other guys. The Colts 2012 draft class has been one of the best of any team, any year, in recent memory.

Indianapolis' better record is more a function of their easy schedule and luck (not capital L Luck) than anything else.

And regarding the OP... Luck sure has some gaudy stats, doesn't he? I mean, he threw for 4,374 yards! Wowwww! He must be grrrreat!

Want to know how he did it? He threw 627 passes. 5th most in the NFL this year, 14th most of all time. That's 7.0 YPA, 16th (dead average) in the NFL. He only threw a TD on 3.7% of his passes (21st in the NFL) but threw an INT on 2.9% (22nd in the NFL). With his terrible 54.1 completion percentage, that translates to a 76.5 QB rating. Lower than Blaine Gabbert, Nick Foles, Christian Ponder, and Ryan Fitzpatrick (oh, and over 10 points lower than Joe Flacco's.) It's also worse than Flacco's 80.3 rookie year QBR.

I don't mean to minimize Luck, he certainly looks like he's a keeper in the league and he's played well in the clutch, but overall he's been about a league average QB who has a lot of yards because he was asked to throw the ball a ton. That's impressive for a rookie, but calling him top 5, top 10, or whatever (like the media often has) is dramatically overrating him.

[BIGBALL]

again, I disagree. I think it's far more impressive what Luck did with so little, compared to what RGIII did with what is a VERY good team. Sure, RGIII diddn't throw many picks, because he wasn't often in a position where the team NEEDED him to throw it all game long....

Look at Peyton's rookie year stas with a similar trash Indy team... very similar, except for the wins.

RGIII had the better year, but IMO there is very little doubt Luck will have the better, longer career.

With all the injuries the Skins had - how the heck can you consider the skins a very good team?? I think RGIII meant as much to them as Luck did to the Colts. JMO...

[LouisianaRaven]

Indy played in a way weaker division too. Didn't Washington pick 4th initially? RG3 is a HUGE part of their run game and that offensive line was considered a weakness last year. The skins defense is just as bad as the Colts defense also. Everyone says RG3 is only asked to do half of what Luck is so isn't that a compliment to RG3? Can you imagine how good he'll be when he's operating the entire system? Funny how Shanahan is considered a good coach again now that he has RG3. They were ready to run him out of DC last year. I find it hard to believe RG3 put up the numbers he did operating only a few plays.