Jason La Confora: Kruger looking for 9m/year...

[LukeDaniel]

Luke- have you allocated money for draft picks?

Yes, I estimated about $2 million uptick on the salary cap as a result of the incoming draft class. Look in post #75. Naturally, the contracts to all of our rookies is going to exceed $2 million, but that's deceiving. Really the only impact of the rookie class is having your higher rounders replace a lower-priced player already counting towards your 51.

As an example, I'm going to go back to the 2011 draft class. Jimmy's Smith's rookie cap # was $1.35 million ($375k base salary+ $980k bonus). That $1.35 doesn't all count against the cap. Only the difference over the player he's replacing on the 51 counts. So if Jimmy Smith's $1.35M replaced a guy who had a cap # of $500k, the cap increase would be $835k.

Torrey Smith's rookie cap # was $620k. Let's say he replaces someone who made $480k. There's an additional $140k, taking the cap increase up to $975k. Jah Reid's rookie contract was for $515k. He likely went on to the 51 using that salary, but the increase of the guy going off the 51 was quite minimal. Our 4th rounder, Doss, had a cap # as a rookie of $480k. This likely had no impact on the cap at all. So, in 2011, the rookie class probably only altered the cap position of the club by $1-1.2 million.

Last year in 2012, with having two 2nd rounders and no 1st rounders, the increase was probably even less.

I am using $2 million this year because I suspect that the Ravens might possibly wind up with 3 picks in the 2nd round or higher, possibly even four. At a minimum, I expect at least 5 picks in the first 3 rounds (assuming we do indeed get a supplemental 3rd rounder for Grubbs).

Rookies really don't impact the salary cap that much. Even 4th round draft picks make about as much as rookies as your undrafted 2nd and 3rd year veterans like a Hamilton/Laquan Williams/ Justin Tucker/Deonte Thompson/Josh Bynes. Really it's just small incrimental increases brought to the cap by your 1st and 2nd rounders.

Now for a team that has cap issues and drafts higher in round 1 and 2, it's a bit more problematic. For Instance, in that same 2011 draft, the Niners took Aldon Smith at #7. His first year cap # was $2.6 million, nearly double that of Jimmy Smith. The Niners needed to have $2.1 million available just to handle Aldon's first year. They then took Kaepernick in the 2nd round and his first year # was $1.2, very close to what we were giving to Jimmy Smith, our first rounder. If you are a team that knows you will be drafting highly in the first and second rounds, you may want to clear more than $2 million in your cap structuring. We've been blessed that the Ravens haven't been in that position for half a decade.

[Shas]

It might be helpful to try and compare Kruger to some other similar players and their recent contracts.

Chris Clemmons in Seattle was entering his eighth year in the league this offseason when he signed a 3-year $22 mil contract with $10 million guaranteed (and about $4MM in incentive bonus money based on sack totals). He had just completed two consecutive seasons of 11 sacks and got 11 again this year before being IR'd with a knee. I am guessing his contract will be a regret for the team. Clemmons had bounced around the league starting with the Skins where he didn't do much for two years and then broke out for Oakland with 8 sacks in his third year. The Eagles signed him and for two years he averaged a mere 3.5 sacks before taking off with Seattle.

Kruger enters his fifth year after putting up sack totals of 0,1, 5.5, 9. His track record isn't as impressive as Clemmons, but I suppose you could project him to be as productive. Still hard to figure how Kruger deserves a bigger payday than Clemmons' $7MM per year. I think I'd be around that total for four years for a younger player, with a bunch of incentives.

Mark Anderson is another player you can look at (and who the Ravens did look at in the offseason). He is one of those part-time rush specialists. He had 12 sacks for the Bears as a rookie and then didn't do much at all until he got 10 sacks for New England in 2011.

So then, entering his eighth season he signed with the Bills this year, getting a four-year $19.5 million contract with $7.9 million guaranteed and no guaranteed money past his first year of the deal. So for those who look at averages, it averages $5 million a year. After only appearing in five games and getting one sack for the Bills this year it will be interesting to see what they do with him. He could be back on the market as a right player right price option.

I actually think Kruger is probably more of a complete player than people here are giving him credit for because he is an okay run stopper and pretty good in coverage.

If you want to look at better comparison to Krugher look at the Lions Cliff Avril. He just finished his fifth season with the Lions with 9.5 sacks .

He was looking for a new contract in the offseason after registering nine sacks in his third year and 11 in his fourth (and, like Kruger, a propensity for the big play with nine deflected passes, seven forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries in those two seasons). But the Lions couldn't come to terms with him and he was forced to sign a $10.6 franchise tag to play this season. He and his agent were looking for $10 million per year for four years. The Lions were offering $8 million per year.

Of course Avril is a 4-3 DE, and by design gets fewer tackles and a bit more sacks. But he's pretty comparable, with a slightly better track record given Kruger has produced at a high level for 1/2 a season, not two, and now three seasons for Avril. Avril will probably set the market and Kruger will get something not too far below that I suspect.

I think $9 mil is a reasonable ask, and his true maximum value is something closer to four years at $7 mil, plus or minus depending on guarantees -- that's giving him full credit for this half a season being projectable and totally overlooking the first three and a half years with near-zero production.

One final guy to consider is Calaise Campbell as a 3-4 OLB for the Cardinals. He was much more consistent in his second, third and fourth years in the league with 7,6 and 8 sacks and 48, 60 and 72 tackles (and coming off 10 passes defended, 1 INT, and 2 forced fumbles last season). Kruger's sack and tackles numbers are 1, 5.5, 9 and 1, 15 and 42 in his second, third and fourth season.

Coming into his fifth year with the Cardinals Campbell signed a five year deal that averages $11 million a year. $31 million of the $55 million is guaranteed. Kruger isn't asking for that kind of money, if LaCranfora's report is right. And he didn't rack up Campbell's stats, either. But is Kruger on track to do that over the next three or more seasons and could he be a bargain if the Ravens could pay him less than Cambell's contract and get Campbell's production?

The Ravens will have to decide if they want to give Kruger close to what he's asking for and end up with a bargain in the process relative to what Avril and Campbell will be paid -- assuming he starts consistently producing like them.

Or, they will have to decide he has not been consistent enough yet to chase a bargain by betting on him early.

[GOTA]

Avril is also going to be on the market. The Lions said they wouldn't franchise him for a second straight year.

[Shas]

Avril is also going to be on the market. The Lions said they wouldn't franchise him for a second straight year.

Right, I do think Avril sets the market. The Ravens won't go after him, but they will have to wait to see what he gets I would think before they can reach a deal with Kruger for something below that.

[wickedsolo]

Avril is also going to be on the market. The Lions said they wouldn't franchise him for a second straight year.

As will a fair amount of other rush OLB's/3-4 OLB's/DE's.

Connor Barwin comes to mind.

[bmorecareful]

Where are people getting this notion that Kruger is "inconsistent" and "has only had a half season of production"? Do you guys not watch the games? He's consistently produced every time he's been on the field playing his natural position.

His first two years in the league the Ravens tried to make Kruger into a 5-tech DE. It didn't work. Forcing someone to play outside of their natural position isn't going to work sometimes and I don't think you can hold that against Kruger at all. I don't hold the team that much at fault because they had Jarret Johnson still playing at a fairly high level and in Mattison's defensive scheme they did not take Jarret off the field at all. They wanted a pass rushing force at 5-tech, took a big gamble on a questionable fit, and got it wrong.

Then, last year Pagano returns to a more traditional 3-4, allows Kruger to return to DE/OLB, and starts rotating Kruger in on passing downs (while smartly keeping JJ, the Ravens' BEST run defender, in on run downs). On a per-play basis Kruger was EXCEPTIONAL last year. In fact, Pro Football Focus rated him as one of the best per-play pass rushers IN THE LEAGUE both this year and last year. I understand that the stat sheet doesn't blow you away for 2011, but judging Kruger's "action plays per snap" he was a very solid defender last year.

This year, Kruger played the rotation role at times, but over the last 10 games I believe he's played 60+ defensive snaps per game, which is starter's snaps, and once again he's been the team's best per-play pass rusher as well as (believe it or not) one of our better LBs in coverage. I think you can make a solid case for Kruger as the Ravens' Defensive MVP this year honestly.

At this point if I'm an NFL Pro Personnel exec evaluating Kruger as an FA option I have a hard time not ranking him VERY highly. He's proven for 2 straight years he's very effective rushing the passer and at this point he's also proven he's very comfortable handling starter's snaps. Kruger has been highly productive since he's been allowed to play his natural position and at this point has proven he's a good-to-excellent option at DE/OLB.

[Boulderraven]

Ravens keep players they want to keep, always do. If they want Kruger he will be a Raven. Cary might be expendable though however with Smith, Graham and Brown and Webb coming back from injury. Grubbs, they lost....but they gave a lower offer than NO only to drive up NO offer, they knew he wanted to go south. In driving up his offer to make NO increase thiers they gave themselves a 3rd round comp pick, which they wanted in the first place. Grubbs was decent not worth the $, Osmele is just as good and more versatile. I expect Kruger back. Cary is gone.

[wickedsolo]

I actually think Kruger is probably more of a complete player than people here are giving him credit for because he is an okay run stopper and pretty good in coverage.

completely agree Shas.

[pickles]

Yes, I estimated about $2 million uptick on the salary cap as a result of the incoming draft class. Look in post #75. Naturally, the contracts to all of our rookies is going to exceed $2 million, but that's deceiving. Really the only impact of the rookie class is having your higher rounders replace a lower-priced player already counting towards your 51.

As an example, I'm going to go back to the 2011 draft class. Jimmy's Smith's rookie cap # was $1.35 million ($375k base salary+ $980k bonus). That $1.35 doesn't all count against the cap. Only the difference over the player he's replacing on the 51 counts. So if Jimmy Smith's $1.35M replaced a guy who had a cap # of $500k, the cap increase would be $835k.

Torrey Smith's rookie cap # was $620k. Let's say he replaces someone who made $480k. There's an additional $140k, taking the cap increase up to $975k. Jah Reid's rookie contract was for $515k. He likely went on to the 51 using that salary, but the increase of the guy going off the 51 was quite minimal. Our 4th rounder, Doss, had a cap # as a rookie of $480k. This likely had no impact on the cap at all. So, in 2011, the rookie class probably only altered the cap position of the club by $1-1.2 million.

Last year in 2012, with having two 2nd rounders and no 1st rounders, the increase was probably even less.

I am using $2 million this year because I suspect that the Ravens might possibly wind up with 3 picks in the 2nd round or higher, possibly even four. At a minimum, I expect at least 5 picks in the first 3 rounds (assuming we do indeed get a supplemental 3rd rounder for Grubbs).

Rookies really don't impact the salary cap that much. Even 4th round draft picks make about as much as rookies as your undrafted 2nd and 3rd year veterans like a Hamilton/Laquan Williams/ Justin Tucker/Deonte Thompson/Josh Bynes. Really it's just small incrimental increases brought to the cap by your 1st and 2nd rounders.

Now for a team that has cap issues and drafts higher in round 1 and 2, it's a bit more problematic. For Instance, in that same 2011 draft, the Niners took Aldon Smith at #7. His first year cap # was $2.6 million, nearly double that of Jimmy Smith. The Niners needed to have $2.1 million available just to handle Aldon's first year. They then took Kaepernick in the 2nd round and his first year # was $1.2, very close to what we were giving to Jimmy Smith, our first rounder. If you are a team that knows you will be drafting highly in the first and second rounds, you may want to clear more than $2 million in your cap structuring. We've been blessed that the Ravens haven't been in that position for half a decade.

This is fascinating stuff. Thanks.

I'm curious to what a conservative estimate is of the Ravens' draft pick situation for this upcoming year.

I've heard as high as 11.

What do you think we're looking at? Again, conservatively?

[Shas]

Ravens keep players they want to keep, always do. If they want Kruger he will be a Raven. Cary might be expendable though however with Smith, Graham and Brown and Webb coming back from injury. Grubbs, they lost....but they gave a lower offer than NO only to drive up NO offer, they knew he wanted to go south. In driving up his offer to make NO increase thiers they gave themselves a 3rd round comp pick, which they wanted in the first place. Grubbs was decent not worth the $, Osmele is just as good and more versatile. I expect Kruger back. Cary is gone.

With Ray retiring and McClain coming off an injury and so-so season, I would say that Ellerbe is even a bigger priority than Kruger. He and Flacco have to and will get done. Kruger will depend on what the market offers him. It's hard to see Cary coming back, I agree. Cory Gaham is a $2.4 million hit next year, the final year of his deal. Will be interesting to see if Asa Jackson can step in behind Brown on the depth chart as everyone moves up. Ideally, Gaham is in the slot, Lardarius is on one side and Smith and Brown compete for the other.

[Boulderraven]

This is fascinating stuff. Thanks.

I'm curious to what a conservative estimate is of the Ravens' draft pick situation for this upcoming year.

I've heard as high as 11.

What do you think we're looking at? Again, conservatively?

With 11 picks, I bet they trade a few to trade up some spots in the middle rounds 2-5 to get players they are after, noway 11 guys in a draft is going to make your roster. If ever a year to trade up this is it.

[pickles]

With 11 picks, I bet they trade a few to trade up some spots in the middle rounds 2-5 to get players they are after, noway 11 guys in a draft is going to make your roster. If ever a year to trade up this is it.

I wouldn't disagree w that. But I have no idea what they're looking at. I don't know shit about compensation.

[Boulderraven]

I wouldn't disagree w that. But I have no idea what they're looking at. I don't know shit about compensation.

They have 4 comp picks, rounds to be determined. Likely a 3rd for Grubbs, 4th for JJ and late ones for Nakamura and Zibby, but you cant trade those picks. But you can trade your original picks of course. They will be drafting late in the rounds of course.

[pickles]

They have 4 comp picks, rounds to be determined. Likely a 3rd for Grubbs, 4th for JJ and late ones for Nakamura and Zibby, but you cant trade those picks. But you can trade your original picks of course. They will be drafting late in the rounds of course.

The quantity has already been determined?

So we have a 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7?

The possibility to trade up is there if that's the case. But we're going to need some depth next year, and we're tight against the cap, as has been shown here.

Now will all 11 make the team? Highly unlikely. But 9 could happen. So they might stick and I wouldn't blame them. I'd be surprised if they traded down from the first; but if a situation like this year materialized again, where we essentially got a free pick, and still got our guy, I'm sure they'd love to do that.

[GOTA]

They have 4 comp picks, rounds to be determined. Likely a 3rd for Grubbs, 4th for JJ and late ones for Nakamura and Zibby, but you cant trade those picks. But you can trade your original picks of course. They will be drafting late in the rounds of course.

Didn't they add some free agents too that would lessen the amount of comp picks?

[bmorecareful]

The quantity has already been determined?

So we have a 1, 2, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5, 6, 6, 6, 7?

The possibility to trade up is there if that's the case. But we're going to need some depth next year, and we're tight against the cap, as has been shown here.

Now will all 11 make the team? Highly unlikely. But 9 could happen. So they might stick and I wouldn't blame them. I'd be surprised if they traded down from the first; but if a situation like this year materialized again, where we essentially got a free pick, and still got our guy, I'm sure they'd love to do that.

Didn't they add some free agents too that would lessen the amount of comp picks?

They are definitely getting 4 compensatory picks but the rounds have not yet been determined. Determining the amount of picks is simple: street free agents signed vs. street free agents lost, not counting players who were cut either way.

Grubbs, Johnson, Redding, Nakamura, Zbikowski, McKinney all left as street free agents. The team signed Sean Considine and Corey Graham as street free agents. Players lost - Players signed = 4, so they get 4 compensatory picks.

The order will be announced in the offseason but it is calculated based on several factors such as size of contract, postseason honors (Pro Bowl/All Pro), number of games started, etc for each player offset against the other. I would think Grubbs would represent a 4th or POSSIBLY a 3rd, Redding and Johnson probably a 4th or 5th each, with Corey Graham canceling out one of Nakamura or Zbikowski and whoever's left probably being a 6th or so. Considine and McKinney cancel out.

[Shas]

UFA's lost, you mentioned Grubbs, JJ, Nakamura and Zbikowski. They also lost Cory Redding, Brandon McKinney, and Edgar Jones as an unrestricted free agents

I think this is the list of free agents acquired...

James Ihedigbo (he was a street free agent who was waived by the Pats, so he doesn't factor)
Jacoby Jones (another street free agent)
Billy Bajama
Darryl Blackstock (signed as an UFA but later cut)
Tony Wragge (another UFA signed and later cut)
Bobbie Williams
Ryan McBean (signed as an UFA but IR'd)
Cory Graham
Sean Considine

Not sure how that all nets out.

[bmorecareful]

UFA's lost, you mentioned Grubbs, JJ, Nakamura and Zbikowski. They also lost Cory Redding, Brandon McKinney, and Edgar Jones as an unrestricted free agents

I think this is the list of free agents acquired...

James Ihedigbo (he was a street free agent who was waived by the Pats, so he doesn't factor)
Jacoby Jones (another street free agent)
Billy Bajama
Darryl Blackstock (signed as an UFA but later cut)
Tony Wragge (another UFA signed and later cut)
Bobbie Williams
Ryan McBean (signed as an UFA but IR'd)
Cory Graham
Sean Considine

Not sure how that all nets out.

Again, players who were cut or waived by their original team do not factor into the calculation at all either way. That includes Ihedigbo, Jones, Bajema, and Williams. McBean was an RFA for the Broncos whose tender was rescinded and defaulted to free agency; he's treated as a "cut player" as well under the compensatory pick rules.

Obviously none of the guys who didn't make the team count, either. It's 6 - 2 = 4.

[Shas]

Where are people getting this notion that Kruger is "inconsistent" and "has only had a half season of production"? Do you guys not watch the games? He's consistently produced every time he's been on the field playing his natural position.

His first two years in the league the Ravens tried to make Kruger into a 5-tech DE. ...On a per-play basis Kruger was EXCEPTIONAL last year. In fact, Pro Football Focus rated him as one of the best per-play pass rushers IN THE LEAGUE both this year and last year

They have him in the top ten this year for pass rushing productivity (sacks, hits, pressures / per rush attempts), which is fantastic. But unless I missed one of their special categories he was no where near that high last year for productivity. Even with the data normalized for the number of snaps he got, PFF didn't have him in the top twenty for productivity (by definition, how much he got out of the total opportunities).

I think it's totally fair to say that this was his coming out year and it was very iffy whether he could perform like this based on past seasons, whether the past seasons were a true reflection of his ability or not. There just wasn't enough to go on.

When I eyeballed him last year there were OCCASIONAL plays where he would explode and look great, but there were also a ton of plays where he would strangely dance around, slapping at a defender, getting no where. For me he was the definition of inconsistent.

If it's my job to evaluate players and spend the owners' money, I think I would have to think twice about projecting great things for a player like Kruger when the numbers aren't there really until the middle of this season. I can't cherry pick his best moments in year three and say for sure that's the Paul Kruger we expect to see forever.

Yes, I get the point that his career was stalled by not finding him a position and that's not his fault. But that doesn't mean you can assume he would have been totally productive in a different role. His stats are what they are.

It sounds like I'm down on him. Actually I'm not. It's easy to see him continuing on this path. But at the same time, it's hard to give him the same kind of money as guys who have had 10+ sacks for three years in a row or more.

[Shas]

Again, players who were cut or waived by their original team do not factor into the calculation at all either way. That includes Ihedigbo, Jones, Bajema, and Williams. McBean was an RFA for the Broncos whose tender was rescinded and defaulted to free agency; he's treated as a "cut player" as well under the compensatory pick rules.

I noted Ihedigbo and Jones were cut. Bajema, Williams and McBean all show up as unrestricted free agent signings for the Ravens when I look them up. Can you point me to a more accurate list?