Patriots Are 9.5 Point Favorites -- Here's Why We Might Still Have a Chance (At Least To Beat The Spread)

[callahan09]

Ravens have only lost against the Patriots by 9 or more points twice in franchise history, the last time being back in the 2004 season.

Also, before Flacco's time, the Ravens had played New England only 4 times in 12 seasons -- 2 at home, 2 on the road -- going 0-4, with an average point differential per game of -12.25.

With Flacco, the Ravens have played New England 5 times in 5 seasons -- 1 at home, 4 on the road -- going 2-3, with an average point differential per game of +1.6 points.

All 5 of those games have occurred since 2009. In that span, only 1 other team has a positive point differential against the Patriots that have played them multiple times: The New York Giants, who have a +8 in 2 games (Ravens have a +8 in 5 games). The only other teams that have played against them as often as the Ravens have are their divisional opponents, who have the three worst point differential against them (-94, -102, and -119).

Flacco has played against Brady 5 times, 4 of which came in New England.

The first 2 times they played, Brady outperformed Flacco (QB Ratings of 78.7 to 100.8, and 10.0 to 49.1; both games in New England), the last 3 times Flacco has outplayed Brady (119.3 to 69.5, 95.4 to 57.5, and 117.7 to 101.2; two of three were in New England).

In total, Flacco has the following stats against Brady:

108/167, 1271 Yards, 9 TD, 4 INT
64.7%, 7.6 Y/A, 254 Y/G, 95.7 QB Rating

In total, Brady has the following stats against Flacco:

121/195, 1278 Yards, 5 TD, 8 INT
62.1%, 6.6 Y/A, 256 Y/G, 72.6 QB Rating

And that's in 5 games, 4 of which were New England.

The overall record in those games is 2-3 in favor of New England, though it could have easily been 4-1, with both of our previous two losses being games we should have probably won.

In the previous 3 games, which represents a 1-2 record in favor of New England and includes those two should-have-been-wins so it could have been 3-0 Ravens, their head to head stats look like this:

Flacco: 77/110, 973 Yards, 7 TD, 2 INT
70.0%, 8.8 Y/A, 324 Y/G, 110.9 QB Rating

Brady: 77/121, 866 Yards, 2 TD, 4 INT
63.6%, 7.2 Y/A, 289 Y/G, 76.7 QB Rating

And that's in 3 games, 2 of which were in New England.

[Mista T]

I'm sorry, but without trying to sound snotty towards the gamblers who participate here: I don't give a shit about beating point spreads!!!!!!!

If the Ravens lose but cover the point spread, I will be pissed off all winter until Training Camp opens

[alienrace]

I like us to not only cover the spread, but win outright.

[BcRaven]

First off, forget about the spread. No real Ravens fan will be happy if we lose by less than 9. The reason we have a chance is because the Ravens are playing with a renewed vigor. Perhaps because Cam is gone, it's Ray's last season, they (especially veterans) know how hard it is to get to the AFCCG, pride, Harbaugh's influence, or a combination of things. The stats posted are meaningless. These are two champions left standing, and the one with the will to snatch the victory (and it won't be easy for either side) will go on to the Super Bowl. IMO it will be the Ravens because they seem to me to be a team of destiny this year. I see a 26 - 23 victory, with the rookie's toe being the difference late in a hard-fought game... Bc

[Rex Thunder]

I'm sorry, but without trying to sound snotty towards the gamblers who participate here: I don't give a shit about beating point spreads!!!!!!!

If the Ravens lose but cover the point spread, I will be pissed off all winter until Training Camp opens

I know he titled it about the spread, but it doesn't read that way. It READS that WE are the better team, and Flacco plays much better against the Pats, than Brady does versus the Ravens. I'm definitely laying money on our boys, but I'll be sick to my stomach if I have to watch Brady give another fake ass post game speech about the "respect" he has for our defense. That dude has lived the most charmed life ever with how he got to where he is, and those stats are just another example of that. He wasn't elite until AFTER he had a few Superbowl rings, but the confidence he gained during the tuck rule era, and Spygate, made him who he is. I still look at him as somewhat of a fraud- even though taken for what he is TODAY- he one of the best of all time. But he'll never be in Joe Montana's league to me. The Pats have won their titles as a team- and stats be damned, we were o-9 our lst 9 tries versus Peyton- and the Pats are 7-0 in home Championship games. Another streak ends this week!

[RavenScallywag]

Also, why do people post "QB stats vs other QB"?

IT HAS NO BEARING!

If both Ds shit the bed, both QBs are going to look like Unitas. If both Ds play lights out, both QBs are going to look like Blaine Gabbert. It's not like Brady is out there harassing Joe, or vice versa!

Those stats only reflect Brady vs the Ravens D (while Joe has been QB) and Joe vs the Pats D.

[pslholder96]

Also, why do people post "QB stats vs other QB"?

IT HAS NO BEARING!

If both Ds shit the bed, both QBs are going to look like Unitas. If both Ds play lights out, both QBs are going to look like Blaine Gabbert. It's not like Brady is out there harassing Joe, or vice versa!

Those stats only reflect Brady vs the Ravens D (while Joe has been QB) and Joe vs the Pats D.

Maybe because it's fun to compare??

[NOLARavenFAN]

I like us to not only cover the spread, but win outright.

I do too. The pressure is 100% on them, and Brady knows it.

[Terpsfan82]

I see the Ravens winning by 10, 31-21.

[callahan09]

Also, why do people post "QB stats vs other QB"?

IT HAS NO BEARING!

If both Ds shit the bed, both QBs are going to look like Unitas. If both Ds play lights out, both QBs are going to look like Blaine Gabbert. It's not like Brady is out there harassing Joe, or vice versa!

Those stats only reflect Brady vs the Ravens D (while Joe has been QB) and Joe vs the Pats D.

Obviously, that's why I said "so to speak" after outlining that it was Flacco vs Brady. I thought it was clear that I meant it in the sense of "This is how Flacco plays versus the Patriots when Brady is in the game COMPARED TO How Brady plays versus the Ravens when Flacco is in the game". It's a shorter way of saying that.

[JustaslowZ06]

Really I could see it against Denver, but I don't with NE and I cant fathom why the line hasn't moved. On 2 sites I'm on the overwhelming money is on the Ravens +9 to the tune of about 85% of the money being there. This is about as close to a lock as you can get. Not that the Ravens win mind you, but that it's ALOT closer than 9 points.

Really honestly that the line hasn't moved is what really scares me. Not to get too muc into it but the spread isn't what Vegas THINKS will happen, it's what they PREDICT will get as close to even money on both sides. Remember the House always wins in a casino? Well same theory with sports betting. They will ALWAYS make money over the course, the object is to maxamize that by minimizing loss, i.e payouts. So by the line not moving and a TON of money on the Ravens side that's what makes it scary.

All in all I took my entire winnings from this season, around 3k and it's on the Ravens plus 9. I did 2 bets, one just with the Ravens that was 2500, and a second bet of 500 with the Ravens and Niners moneyline.

[NCRAVEN]

Really I could see it against Denver, but I don't with NE and I cant fathom why the line hasn't moved. On 2 sites I'm on the overwhelming money is on the Ravens +9 to the tune of about 85% of the money being there. This is about as close to a lock as you can get. Not that the Ravens win mind you, but that it's ALOT closer than 9 points.

Really honestly that the line hasn't moved is what really scares me. Not to get too muc into it but the spread isn't what Vegas THINKS will happen, it's what they PREDICT will get as close to even money on both sides. Remember the House always wins in a casino? Well same theory with sports betting. They will ALWAYS make money over the course, the object is to maxamize that by minimizing loss, i.e payouts. So by the line not moving and a TON of money on the Ravens side that's what makes it scary.

All in all I took my entire winnings from this season, around 3k and it's on the Ravens plus 9. I did 2 bets, one just with the Ravens that was 2500, and a second bet of 500 with the Ravens and Niners moneyline.

The site I am on has NE -10. Really odd what's going on...



Baltimore Ravens

+10 (-140)

New England Patriots

-10 (+120)

[houstonravensfan]

I don't care if we cover the spread. I want us to cover Brady. With dirt.

[FearTheRaven]

The 9.5 line the books posted is simply for teasers. Lot of bettors love teasers and will move the Patriots down to -2.5 and the 9ers +2.5.

I will give my analysis tomorrow but I feel the Ravens win this game. The money line of +340 holds great value.

[EdReed4HOF]

Not only will the Ravens cover the spread, they'll win the damn game!

[iggyman555]

spread down to 8 now...money coming in on the ravens late

[AirFlacco]

Mike Preston and Peter Schmuck are the only Sun writers that picked Ravens. Aaron Wilson picked NE.

[psuasskicker]

Really I could see it against Denver, but I don't with NE and I cant fathom why the line hasn't moved. On 2 sites I'm on the overwhelming money is on the Ravens +9 to the tune of about 85% of the money being there. This is about as close to a lock as you can get. Not that the Ravens win mind you, but that it's ALOT closer than 9 points.

Really honestly that the line hasn't moved is what really scares me. Not to get too muc into it but the spread isn't what Vegas THINKS will happen, it's what they PREDICT will get as close to even money on both sides. Remember the House always wins in a casino? Well same theory with sports betting. They will ALWAYS make money over the course, the object is to maxamize that by minimizing loss, i.e payouts. So by the line not moving and a TON of money on the Ravens side that's what makes it scary.

The lines are moving now and down to 8 in most places. There are a couple factors that likely were influencing it.

1) Wong teasers would have been HUGELY in play with the line in SF/ATL at the 3, if they moved down from that. With that line moving in SF's favor, not much point fearing Wongs so they're okay dipping below the 9 now. And if you know what a Wong teaser is, you know the first rule of Fight Club is.....

2) If the line truly didn't move with that heavy money moving on the Ravens, or worse, moved the opposite way, it's essentially called a "reverse line move." Contrary to popular belief, the spread is not what Vegas thinks people will bet. It's the predictive likelihood one team wins over the other, and its translation into number of points by which they're historically expected to win by being an [x] likelihood favorite. In other words, Vegas is smarter than the betting public.

And if the betting public is pouring money on one side, and Vegas is moving the line the opposite direction, it means they WANT the money on that side, and they know more than we do, and so they're making a very calculated bet that the line is set correctly or not far enough in one direction. Which means the smart money hammers the side of the RLM.

I know all the money's coming in on the Ravens, and it was literally scaring the shit out of me that the line wasn't moving. Now it is, so I'm not nearly as worried and think it was the first factor more than the second. They're making it 3 to 1 against us winning. That's fine, sounds about right cause they're better and we just had a tougher game that went more than five quarters on their turf.

At the same, I like us to play them close. And if we do, we've been pretty good at winning close games this year (6-3 in games decided by 3 or fewer points). They, mostly, have not (1-3 in games decided by 3 or fewer points).

- C -

[bacchys]

I think Vegas screwed themselves with that line, personally. The Pats are better, on paper. They're certainly playing well. But these two teams aren't strangers to each other the last few years and the only blowout was the Ravens over the Pats (33-14 on Jan. 10, 2010). The last three games have been decided by 3 points or fewer.

[dandrews]

I think Vegas screwed themselves with that line, personally. The Pats are better, on paper. They're certainly playing well. But these two teams aren't strangers to each other the last few years and the only blowout was the Ravens over the Pats (33-14 on Jan. 10, 2010). The last three games have been decided by 3 points or fewer.

The line is that high because the Pats are a huge public team that will get a ton of bets (no matter what the spread is) on their side this weekend. Vegas must compensate by originally making the line high in order to get an equal/similar amount of money on the Ravens. It has little to do with actual football reasons.