Premature Discussion of Flacco's Mounting Hall of Fame Credentials

[callahan09]

First, a caveat: He's obviously not a lock at this moment in his career. In order for any of this to be relevant, he has to continue these trends for at least another 5 seasons, and preferably 10+ more seasons.

However... it is interesting to note:

The only quarterbacks to have as many or more playoff wins as Flacco, and as good or better of a passer rating in those wins, are:

Joe Montana - 16 Wins - 105.4 QB Rating
Brett Favre - 13 Wins - 107.3 QB Rating
Troy Aikman - 11 Wins - 109.2 QB Rating
Kurt Warner - 9 Wins - 110.0 QB Rating
Peyton Manning - 9 Wins - 104.3 QB Rating
Bart Starr - 8 Wins - 108.6 QB Rating
Steve Young - 8 Wins - 105.0 QB Rating
Eli Manning - 8 Wins - 100.1 QB Rating
Dan Marino - 8 Wins - 99.6 QB Rating

And then there's our boy:

Joe Flacco - 8 Wins - 98.7 QB Rating

First, a note on Bart Starr: His actually has credit for 9 wins, but I was being fair to everybody else and taking away his 1965 game against the Baltimore Colts where he was injured out of the game on the very first play. Frankly, he shouldn't get credit for that win.

Now, One thing I notice about that company is that all of them are either in the Hall of Fame (Montana, Young, Aikman, Starr, Marino), or absolute Hall of Fame locks (Favre, Warner, P. Manning, E. Manning), with the exception of Joe Flacco and Eli Manning.

Eli Manning has made a pretty good case for himself to get in some day, as well. Could Flacco be on pace to make a similar case?

By the way, the other QBs with as many or more play-off wins as Flacco (but with a lower QB Rating in those wins) are:

Tom Brady - 17 Wins - 93.8 QB Rating
John Elway - 14 Wins - 88.0 QB Rating
Terry Bradshaw - 14 Wins - 96.0 QB Rating
Roger Staubach - 12 Wins - 92.8 QB Rating
Ben Roethlisberger - 10 Wins - 88.2 QB Rating
Donovan McNabb - 9 Wins - 92.3 QB Rating
Jim Kelly - 9 Wins - 85.9 QB Rating
Jim Plunkett - 8 Wins - 88.6 QB Rating

First, a note on Staubach: he actually only has credit for 11 wins, but I'm being fair to him and including his stats and the win from the 1972 Divisional game against San Francisco, which he didn't start, but he came off the bench with 2 minutes left, down by 12, and won the game.

Now, Once again, that's some pretty grand company. You've got your Hall of Famers (Elway, Bradshaw, Staubach, Kelly), and your absolute Hall of Fame lock (Brady). Then of course you've got Roethlisberger, who may get in some day, and Donovan McNabb, who at one point in his career looked like a shoe-in, but after a drawn-out fade-out to end his career, may not be in the conversation anymore. Jim Plunkett is still in the conversation, and may still get in some day. If he doesn't, it's because he never had long-term success and wasn't good in the regular season. Obviously, there's also the matter that these three guys haven't been as instrumental to the win in their post-season victories as Flacco has been, as evidenced by their lower passer ratings in those games.

So accounting for all 17 players in NFL history with as much or more post-season success as Flacco, all but 4 are Hall of Fame guarantees. That's fantastic company, especially considering that 2 of those remaining 4 also have a good chance to go in some day, and the other 2 are on the fringes of the conversation, and 3 of the 4 who aren't locks were not as instrumental to their post-season successes for their teams as Flacco has been for the Ravens.

I guess what I'm trying to say is... Flacco has been building himself a nice little career here, that at its current trajectory, if we are fortunate enough for him to continue it, looks set for a ride all the way into Canton.

[somedumbguy]

I'll bite on this just because....

No. His current trajectory is not going towards Canton.

He needs to win a Superbowl, Then a second and maybe a third.

Throwing for over 4000 yards with 28-30 TD's and less than 10 interceptions every year for the next 8 years would probably help.

A season where he was NFL MVP or offensive player of the year would help.

Making a pro bowl would be good. I realize it is just a popularity contest sometimes, but if people don't think you are one of the top 2 or 3 QB's in your conference multiple times in your career while you are playing, it is hard to convince people 5 years after you retire that you were one of the best of your generation.

Playoff success is nice but for Canton, you need more and Joe does not have it..... yet. I love Joe and am happy he is my QB, but even with his success, his next 5 years need to be a LOT better than his last 5 before anybody could even start considering Canton. Nothing would make me happier if his carreer started to get closer towards a Canton trajectory, but right now, no.

[s.r.genovese]

Jim Plunkett isn't a HOF QB just because he won 2 Super Bowls.

I love Flacco as a player but stats do matter in HOF discussions. A QB isn't a pitcher; wins aren't all that important in the eyes of the selection committee.

At his current trajectory, no he is not a HOF player. Even if he maintains his current production and wins 2 Super Bowls, he still isn't a HOF QB. At his current trajectory, he'd prob end up with 1 Pro Bowl selection if he's lucky. Now, I know the Pro Bowl is generally a bunch of BS but the selection committee definitely takes Pro Bowls into account when picking HOFers.

However, I do think he has the ability begin to accumulate HOF numbers. Much like Eli started putting up Pro Bowl numbers after his Super Bowl win my hope is that Flacco jumps to the next level and starts averaging 4000 yards and 30ish TD's per year. If he can get there and continue that production for a number of years, he'll get some Pro Bowls and he'll be much closer to consideration for the HOF.

[crazyraven]

5 years in the league and Joe has 5 playoff appearances, 3 AFC championships, and now a Superbowl appearance. If he keeps that up he is a shoe in despite what some people may think...the guy is getting the job done. Is he not?

This is what you expect from a QB that was drafted in the first round, not like some other knuckles heads from years past who cost more than just a 1st rounder. Makes me sad about how many opportunities were lost for Ray.

[lovefootball]

I'll wait for his career to play out more. Love to hear the nay sayers, they have some sort of idea that they can call out what will happen. Five years and Flacco has made some elite QBs careers look pale in comparision to what Flacco has achieved. Time will tell and I for one would hope his career gets him into the HOF. Where are those predictors who said he wasn't going to be a QB to take the Ravens to a SB. Or the guys who said they would never pay top dollar for Flacco? Sit back and enjoy the ride that the Ravens are giving us. The guy who is taking the snaps and leading the offense has done a great job these 5 years. I'll be along for the ride for the rest of his career. Still Wacko for Flacco.

[Paintballguy]

I'll wait for his career to play out more. Love to hear the nay sayers, they have some sort of idea that they can call out what will happen. Five years and Flacco has made some elite QBs careers look pale in comparision to what Flacco has achieved. Time will tell and I for one would hope his career gets him into the HOF. Where are those predictors who said he wasn't going to be a QB to take the Ravens to a SB. Or the guys who said they would never pay top dollar for Flacco? Sit back and enjoy the ride that the Ravens are giving us. The guy who is taking the snaps and leading the offense has done a great job these 5 years. I'll be along for the ride for the rest of his career. Still Wacko for Flacco.

Enjoy the fact that we have a legit franchise QB here in Baltimore and will for years to come.

[festivus]

Mr. Linta? Is that you?

[callahan09]

So you guys are saying that even at his current trajectory he wouldn't be a hall of famer? If he wins the Super Bowl this year than identical production over another five years would get him 2 rings, 18 post season wins (most all time by today's leaderboard), and 12 road wins in the playoffs (with nobody else having more than 5). I'm just saying, the pace at which he wins games is unprecedented and if it continued he is a lock. Bulk numbers don't make a winner. Anybody who watches Flacco play should be able to acknowledge his leadership, his level headedness, his playmaking that contributes to so many team wins.

[s.r.genovese]

So you guys are saying that even at his current trajectory he wouldn't be a hall of famer? If he wins the Super Bowl this year than identical production over another five years would get him 2 rings, 18 post season wins (most all time by today's leaderboard), and 12 road wins in the playoffs (with nobody else having more than 5). I'm just saying, the pace at which he wins games is unprecedented and if it continued he is a lock. Bulk numbers don't make a winner. Anybody who watches Flacco play should be able to acknowledge his leadership, his level headedness, his playmaking that contributes to so many team wins.

Wins are nice but no HOF selection committee are going to vote him in on wins and intangibles alone. 2 Super Bowls help but he needs the stats to back it up. Like I said before, Jim Plunkett has two rings and is not a HOF QB. I think Flacco can do it but he needs to increase his production to do so.

[festivus]

I used to think Todd Heap and Chris McAllister were both potential Hall of Famers, too.

Things happen. We'll see. I hope you're right, Mr. Linta.

[NCRAVEN]

So you guys are saying that even at his current trajectory he wouldn't be a hall of famer? If he wins the Super Bowl this year than identical production over another five years would get him 2 rings, 18 post season wins (most all time by today's leaderboard), and 12 road wins in the playoffs (with nobody else having more than 5). I'm just saying, the pace at which he wins games is unprecedented and if it continued he is a lock. Bulk numbers don't make a winner. Anybody who watches Flacco play should be able to acknowledge his leadership, his level headedness, his playmaking that contributes to so many team wins.

Since it's completely hypothetical, I would think if he has the exact same success in the next 5 years as he's had in the past, I would think that would be a HOF resume, assuming he wins one of the two SB's.

[jonboy79]

Wins are nice but no HOF selection committee are going to vote him in on wins and intangibles alone. 2 Super Bowls help but he needs the stats to back it up. Like I said before, Jim Plunkett has two rings and is not a HOF QB. I think Flacco can do it but he needs to increase his production to do so.

Troy Aikman is a HOFer based more on wins and team success then individual numbers.

Lets take a ganer at them.
Almost 33k yards at 61.5 completion pct.
1.17:1 TD:INT ration with 165 Total TD's
81.6 career Qb rating
3 SB's, 6 PB's and 3 All-Pro's.
in 12 years
exactly 1 season with over 20 TD's, ZERO seasons above 3500 yards.
career average game... 200 yards, 1 TD, .85 picks...
carre QB rating 86.3
hopefully about to get his first SB, 0 probowls, much less all-pro seasons
in 5 years
4 straight seasons with over 20 TD's, 3 straight over 3500 yards
career average game...220 yards, 1.28 TD's .7 picks

SO, as can be seen, he msut keep up his team success, perhaps even increase it, while his personal stats are far better, yet his personal ACCOLADES trail dramatically, much relating to the popularity of AMerica's team.

Currently, Flacco has MORE than 17000 yards at 60.5 pct
1.82:1 TD:INT ratio with 102 total TD passes

[GOTA]

How many Pro Bowls has Flacco made? And yes I know that the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest but so is the Hall of Fame. One step at a time for Flacco.

[NCRAVEN]

How many Pro Bowls has Flacco made? And yes I know that the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest but so is the Hall of Fame. One step at a time for Flacco.

What if they do away with Pro Bowls (which I hope they do)?

[somedumbguy]

Troy Aikman is a HOFer based more on wins and team success then individual numbers.

Lets take a ganer at them.
Almost 33k yards at 61.5 completion pct.
1.17:1 TD:INT ration with 165 Total TD's
81.6 career Qb rating
3 SB's, 6 PB's and 3 All-Pro's.
in 12 years
exactly 1 season with over 20 TD's, ZERO seasons above 3500 yards.
career average game... 200 yards, 1 TD, .85 picks...
carre QB rating 86.3
hopefully about to get his first SB, 0 probowls, much less all-pro seasons
in 5 years
4 straight seasons with over 20 TD's, 3 straight over 3500 yards
career average game...220 yards, 1.28 TD's .7 picks

SO, as can be seen, he msut keep up his team success, perhaps even increase it, while his personal stats are far better, yet his personal ACCOLADES trail dramatically, much relating to the popularity of AMerica's team.


Currently, Flacco has MORE than 17000 yards at 60.5 pct
1.82:1 TD:INT ratio with 102 total TD passes

3 SB's, 6 PB's and 3 All-Pro's.


So for 3 years he was considered by somebody one of the best QB's in the league and 6 for 6 years somebody thought he was one of the 2 or 3 best QB's in his division. Joe needs to do that, and to do that he needs to improve his stats a lot.

THe QB that I think Joe might draw comparisons to is Phil Simms. 2 Superbowl rings, tough in the playoffs, generally thought of as a really good QB, but maybe just short of HOF status. I think Simms may one day get there because of the team he played for, but he is not in yet.

[somedumbguy]

What if they do away with Pro Bowls (which I hope they do)?

Then they will ask how many MVP's, Offensive Player of the Year, or All Pro Teams did he make.

[saintmatthew]

How many Pro Bowls has Flacco made? And yes I know that the Pro Bowl is a popularity contest but so is the Hall of Fame. One step at a time for Flacco.

And on that note, it's an absolute crock that Dalton and Schaub got picked for Pro Bowls and Flacco hasn't which to me pretty much invalidates the pro bowl as a measure of anything except jack and shit.

[jonboy79]

3 SB's, 6 PB's and 3 All-Pro's.


So for 3 years he was considered by somebody one of the best QB's in the league and 6 for 6 years somebody thought he was one of the 2 or 3 best QB's in his division. Joe needs to do that, and to do that he needs to improve his stats a lot.

THe QB that I think Joe might draw comparisons to is Phil Simms. 2 Superbowl rings, tough in the playoffs, generally thought of as a really good QB, but maybe just short of HOF status. I think Simms may one day get there because of the team he played for, but he is not in yet.

I wasn't putting that all up there to annoint him already, simply show a point of consideration. IF you get 3 SB's, stats are less important. ANd if anything,that set of stats shows just how popularity biased Pro-bowls and even ALl-PRo's are.

IF we win this year, Joe will start going to Pro-Bowl's starting next year. Although hopefully, he wikll be turning down the invitations due to the SB's he will be starting in for years to come.

Andy Freaking Dalton is starting in this year's pro-bowl. Even Andy Dalton's mom knows Flacco is a better player then him. IF he were not in the SB, tis would have certainly been Flacco's first Pro Bowl season.

[LukeDaniel]

If Aikman and Bradshaw get into Canton on the strength of the teams they played on...why shouldn't Flacco? Flacco has actually had to win some games with his arm for the Ravens to have achieved their current status, unlike the two QBs mentioned before.

Of course, the HOF is not always a reflection of sheer talent in comparison with your peers. If it was about sheer talent, Ken Anderson would have the HOF spot of a vastly-inferior Terry Bradshaw. Bradshaw had only one season with a QB rating over 85 and never cracked the 90 mark. Now before you go off and say that was because of his era, let me remind you that is comtemporary Ken Anderson had five seasons with a rating over 85 including FOUR seasons of 95.7, 93.9, 98.4, and 95.3 (all of which led the NFL). Anderson's omission from Canton is an absolute joke.

Lastly, to those who think Flacco is not a HOF QB, I would encourage you to go put Flacco's production/wins/efficiency up against any HOF quarterback. He's going to compare favorably to most.

Terry Bradshaw in his first five years was TERRIBLE. He had 48 TDs against 81 INTs. In fact, in his rookie year, Bradshaw threw 6 TDs and 24 INTs for a QB rating of 30.4 . He was also sacked 25 times in 8 starts. He had a 38.1% completion percentage and threw 24 INTs in 218 attempts. He threw 83 completions to his own teammates and 24 to the opposition. His QB rating was 8.6 points lower than Ryan Leaf's rookie year, which is widely viewed as the worst season in NFL history. If Blaine Gabbert lost his job after his rookie year with a far less disastrous performance , what do you think would have happened to Bradshaw if he played in today's NFL?

Troy Aikman threw 69TDs-66 INTs in his first five years. This included 20TDs/36INTs over his first two seasons. Once the Cowboys started to win, suddenly people forgot about how bad he was early in his career. Aikman never had stats remotely close to HOF enshrinement, despite playing with Hall of Famers right and left on the offensive side of the ball. He never had a 3500 yard season. He only threw over 20 TDs once in his career. His best season in terms of passing yards was the equivolent of Flacco's 5th best season (in 5 years). Flacco is destroying him in career TD/INT ratio (1.82 to 1.17). Lastly, his regular season winning % (.570) isn't anywhere near Flacco's 67.5%. Yet, he won 3 Super Bowls, so his very pedestrian career is suddenly regarded a lot more highly. If Flacco's unparalleled success is credited as being a "game manager", then what was Troy Aikman? Considering that the one thing that game managing QBs are supposed to do well (protect the ball and let your teammates win for you) is an area where Flacco severely trumps Aikman, I think it's hard to argue that he doesn't have the start of HOF credentials.

A lot of QBs currently in Canton had far more struggles and far less success in their first five NFL seasons than Flacco.

Also, Jim Plunkett is a poor comparison. Plunkett had basically played his way out of a starting job in the NFL after years of so-so play in New England. His winning two Super Bowls were in seasons late in his career when he was a backup thrust into a starting/babysitting role on some stacked Raider teams. If Flacco wins two Super Bowls, it will be nothing comparable to the route that Plunkett took to get there.

There are so many variables in determining whether a QB is HOF worthy. Typically, without a win, you have to have the eye-popping stats like Marino or Fouts. The difficultly level gets progressively easier with one win and with multiple appearances. If the Ravens lose this game in 11 days and Flacco never returns to a Super Bowl, he will have to accumulate some insane stats to get into Canton. With one win, the picture changes quite a bit. At that point, he merely needs to put together another 6-8 years closely similar to his 2010 and 2012 seasons and he will be a virtual lock.

I think some people here are undervaluing how much his reputation has changed this postseason. I've heard multiple people refer to him as "one of the most clutch QBs of all-time" or something closely similar to that. That type of reputation, when coupled with a lot of postseason wins, a Super Bowl win, and some good overall stats, is a sure recipe for HOF admission.

[alienrace]

I have to think that if Flacco continues on his trajectory - which I think will continue upward given what we've been seeing this year, that you won't have to worry about pro-bowls or awards. I strongly suspect going forward he's going to have a few 30+ TD, 4000+ yard seasons under his belt. Pro-bowls don't really mean anything much anymore, and I think the writers know it, but - Flacco is probably going to find himself in more than a few of them from here on out due to the perception of him changing so radically this postseason. If he gets MVP in this year's SuperBowl, he's probably a lock for a pro bowl next year unless he falls flat on his face.

What he's done in his first five years is pretty remarkable - if he continues to keep making the playoffs and winning playoff games, he'll be a shoe-in.