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  1. #37
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30



    Yes lets just completely disregard Joe Flacco throwing a BOMB and Jacoby Jones making the play, and put all the blame on Rahim Moore, because safeties never ever make mistakes like that in coverage....

    Its like the whole argument about Ray Rice. "Oh if you take away his long 32 yard gains, he only has 3 YPA", yeah because long runs of 30-60 yards are totally irrelevant and worthless in a game.

    FO is alright, and certainly better than PFF IMO, but only 2 teams out of the past ten SB champs have had the top ranked DVOA, so I don't put too much stock into FO.




  2. #38

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by NCRAVEN View Post
    "There's lies, damn lies, and than there's statistics"

    Do advanced stats take into account playing at least 9 games a year in a dome with the greatest Tight end of all time and two #1 WR's, one of which just might be the best athlete in the entire NFL (Julio Jones). I doubt it. Or do they take into account the difference between playing the AFC north and the NFC South?
    They actually do. Feel free to read up on them. They also (attempt to) normalize for defense quality, first down yardage, pass interference yards, and do common sense things like not counting hail mary INTs.

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    Yes lets just completely disregard Joe Flacco throwing a BOMB and Jacoby Jones making the play, and put all the blame on Rahim Moore, because safeties never ever make mistakes like that in coverage....

    Its like the whole argument about Ray Rice. "Oh if you take away his long 32 yard gains, he only has 3 YPA", yeah because long runs of 30-60 yards are totally irrelevant and worthless in a game.

    You are missing my point, which is that we are assigning a lot of value to "clutch", when wins are often in other players (or refs) hands. Two plays go differently and Flacco "can't lead a team to the Super Bowl" and Matt Ryan "Is finally putting it together" and taking his team to the super bowl. Everything changes for these two guys even though they did nothing different.

    As Ravens fans who went through what we did last year we should know the QB doesn't control postseason wins by himself.




  3. #39
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    I am actually fine with the ranking. It is meaningless next week.

    What struck me is how much younger Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford are than Flacco. It all kind of blurs together, but those guys seem so much more beaten up than Flacco. I think of Flacco as a guy that will be around for another decade and I feel like Bradford is about 1 hit away from retiring.




  4. #40

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Flacco's post-season rating being the same as Ryan's is due mostly to Flacco's poor performance's in both his rookie and second year. It's not exactly surprising that he didn't do all that well in those games (especially considering he was hurt in one).

    And Ryan's receivers are not slightly better than Flacco's, there is a good bit of margin between them. White, Jones and Gonzo are number 1's on pretty much any team in the league.




  5. #41

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by somedumbguy View Post
    I am actually fine with the ranking. It is meaningless next week.

    What struck me is how much younger Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford are than Flacco. It all kind of blurs together, but those guys seem so much more beaten up than Flacco. I think of Flacco as a guy that will be around for another decade and I feel like Bradford is about 1 hit away from retiring.
    Absolutely. I think the most underrated piece of value Flacco has is his durability. Bill Barnwell did a great job talking about this at the beginning of the year:

    http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/...-league-part-2

    Quote Originally Posted by Justlovemybirds View Post
    Flacco's post-season rating being the same as Ryan's is due mostly to Flacco's poor performance's in both his rookie and second year. It's not exactly surprising that he didn't do all that well in those games (especially considering he was hurt in one).

    And Ryan's receivers are not slightly better than Flacco's, there is a good bit of margin between them. White, Jones and Gonzo are number 1's on pretty much any team in the league.
    Fair enough, though this is probably balanced by having a better O-line, and a much better running game and defense. I definitely thing comparing their "standard" stats requires a lot of balancing, but the advanced stats do a good (not perfect) job of this.




  6. #42
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    They actually do. Feel free to read up on them. They also (attempt to) normalize for defense quality, first down yardage, pass interference yards, and do common sense things like not counting hail mary INTs.
    They attempt to take those things into account, but I am not buying it. How do you fully rank how much better there WR's corps is better than ours?

    Or if a defense is better or worse, does that mean it would the exact same against two different teams? Meaning, Pittsburgh may be the #1 D and while they play that way against us one week, will they be that against Atlanta the next week as well? No, people match up differently, so I don't buy advanced stats, or advanced advanced stats matter, or can accurately say who is a better QB.

    Hire's a question for you. DO you think Ryan would do better in Baltimore than Joe?
    We are all born ignorant, but one must work hard to remain stupid. - Benjamin Franklin




  7. #43
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    The logic is that Matt Ryan is superior in both standard statistics and advanced stats (which try to normalize for things like domes and receiver/o-line prowess) over a significant sample size.

    http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

    And for all of Joe's "postseason heroics", he has exactly the same QB rating in his postseason career as Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan certainly has a better home field for stats, and has slightly better receivers, but has never had a great defense or running game like Joe, so comparing wins or postseason wins is dumb.
    Brandt is the one who brought up wins. I actually hate using wins for any individual player for a team sport. His first line for why he chose Ryan was regular season wins. Obviously he must think that the most important criteria or he would have lead with something else.
    He Who Dares.....Wins




  8. #44
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    http://www.rrstar.com/blogs/matttrow...0-quarterbacks

    Now, I'm going to start off saying I don't like this guy, because he ranks Kaepernick, RG3, Luck, and Wilson 6-9, and says Ravens would trade Flacco for any of them in a heartbeat. That's just ridiculous. And throws in a slight dig, saying Atlanta probably would too, but not QUITE as quickly.

    But, when talking about Flacco, they bring up exactly why his postseason stats seem a bit odd...

    In that coldhardfootballfacts.com chart -- which included his first two playoff games this year -- Flacco ranked 17th out of 20 playoff quarterbacks in WPA, at 0.03 ahead of only Chad Pennington, Donovan McNabb and Michael Vick, and 16th in expected points added at 0.79. He was worth less than a point per game over a replacement level quarterback.

    But that's because he USED to be brutal. Flacco had nothing to do with Baltimore's first three playoff wins of his career, then got a gimme win over an overmatched Kansas City team. But Flacco has posted five straight playoff games with a passer rating of 95 or above the past two years. That's awfully good. And awfully consistent.
    All the 2008 playoff games were brutal Flacco. It was really the D making those games work. The in 2009, we played NE in a game where Joe was 4/10. That's because of HUGE plays by Rice and McGahee, and the D. We got knocked out by the Colts (In a game I apparently had totally forgotten, where Joe had a turnover to ice the game). Then in 2010, in the first game Joe really played well in, he had 2 TD and 265 yards. The next game against Pitt, Joe had us up by 14 at halftime, but he threw a pick combined with a Rice fumble to let the Steelers back in the game.
    .
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    FOR REED, BIRK, BOLDIN, RAY, ART, TEVIN, OJ, and BALTIMORE...
    SUPER BOWL 47 CHAMPION RAVENS!!!!!!

    "We don't make it easy, but that's the way the city of Baltimore is, and that's the way we are. We did this for them back home." - Joe Flacco, Super Bowl 47 MVP


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  9. #45
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by RavenScallywag View Post
    http://www.rrstar.com/blogs/matttrow...0-quarterbacks

    Now, I'm going to start off saying I don't like this guy, because he ranks Kaepernick, RG3, Luck, and Wilson 6-9, and says Ravens would trade Flacco for any of them in a heartbeat. That's just ridiculous. And throws in a slight dig, saying Atlanta probably would too, but not QUITE as quickly.

    But, when talking about Flacco, they bring up exactly why his postseason stats seem a bit odd...



    All the 2008 playoff games were brutal Flacco. It was really the D making those games work. The in 2009, we played NE in a game where Joe was 4/10. That's because of HUGE plays by Rice and McGahee, and the D. We got knocked out by the Colts (In a game I apparently had totally forgotten, where Joe had a turnover to ice the game). Then in 2010, in the first game Joe really played well in, he had 2 TD and 265 yards. The next game against Pitt, Joe had us up by 14 at halftime, but he threw a pick combined with a Rice fumble to let the Steelers back in the game.
    I would consider trading Joe Flacco for Andrew Luck if it were after the season. I think Luck has the chance to to be Epic Hall of Fame multiple championships good in the right situation and I would take that chance. I think Joe can win multiple championships, just maybe with not as much style. I would not trade Flacco for any of the other three. Running QB's have short shelf lives. Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are Haloti Ngata hits from a torn ACL and who knows if RGIII will ever be the same again.




  10. #46
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    It will be interesting to see how Joe's enhanced stats compare to Ryan's after next season (assuming a shaky OLine and Cam Cameron greatly contributed to his inconsistency in the regular season).




  11. #47

    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Phantoom View Post
    I would love you to explain this "clutch gene" to me. Does Tom Brady have it?

    They have run stat studies, and basically no matter how you define "clutch", it turns out that people just play as well as they play. No QB has ever played significantly different from his career stats in the 4th quarter or on game winning drives or in the playoffs (given sample size). I find it hilarious that Matt Ryan would have been "clutch" if they had called the obvious pass interference at the end of the NFC Championship (or his D can hold a lead), or that Joe Flacco would be less "clutch" if a safety does his job in Denver.

    If Joe was more clutch, wouldn't he have better postseason stats than Matt Ryan, who is a "choker"?

    A lot of people used to believe in clutch in baseball too, where the statistics also proved them wrong.

    And this is why we have advanced stats (see what I linked) that normalize for things like that. Feel free to check them out.
    First to answer you question - Tom Brady *used* to have it. Last few hears he seems to get rattled and frustrated a bit more easily. Two years in a row, he has played poorly in the AFCC game. Tom Brady from the first part of the decade would have stepped up and played great.

    The Flacco vs Ryan postseason debate demonstrates just how much stats don't show the real picture at times. Even early in their careers, when Joe was putting up some pretty bad stats in the postseason, he was making big plays that helped his team win.

    For example, the clutch, yes clutch throw to Todd Heap under pressure that put the Ravens in position to win the game on their final drive. Matty Ice that year was busy throwing picks to Cardinal defenders in the absolute worst times possible. See, stats don't show the timing of things. Don't give me the "Normalized 4th quarter" crap either. That still doesn't show anything. You HAVE TO LOOK AT EACH GAME, and the CONTEXT!

    Clutch is hitting Boldin for two TD's when the game is in the balance. Or hitting Jones with 31 seconds left on a game tying 70 yard TD pass. Clutch is hitting Lee Evans with 26 seconds left for the game winning score(ooops the idiot dropped it!).

    Not clutch is throwing a pick six against the Packers right before the half that swung the game completely around. Not clutch is turning the ball over twice when you have a lead in a championship game.

    Now Flacco hasn't always been clutch in every game, (i.e Pitt 2010), but more often than not he has been.

    To say "clutch" doesn't exist is ridiculous.

    Now, regarding a couple of other things you mention:

    First, that was NOT pass interference on Atlanta's last play in the NFCC game. The receiver was within 5 yards of the LOS and got bumped, legally. When the ball arrived Bowman reached around and swatted it down.

    You also need to look more closely at the play in Denver. It was just as much a case of a great play call and route running as it was defensive breakdown. Moore was caught between a rock in a hard place, as Pitta was wide open underneath and had Moore been playing deeper to cover Jones better, Pitta likely would have gotten the Ravens within pretty close striking distance. Note, Ray Rice was also open for what would have been a 30 yard or more gain as well. The play was "clutch" because Joe recognized Jones being open, and he made the throw, with the game on the line. That is the DEFINITION of clutch, my friend.

    Not clutch, is throwing the ball to a receiver who wouldn't have gotten a first down anyway, and not seeing a wide open Tony Gonzales who would not only have gotten the first down, but likely SCORED.

    That is why you have to watch the games instead of looking at stats to know how good a player really is.




  12. #48
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    Re: NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

    Quote Originally Posted by Paintballguy View Post
    He was being sarcastic.
    Yeah i know, I was just expanding on his Kaepernick win stat.
    I told everyone that if I went to Pittsburgh I would have to throw up on my jersey every time I played, - Double J will always be a Raven




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