NFL.COM Top Quarterbacks under 30

**srobert96** · 01-25-2013, 06:34 AM

Ryan has a far superior Oline, TE and WRs. He plays in a weak division defensively. He plays in a dome. Of course he is going to have better stats. He also has an offense built around the pass.

**BMann** · 01-25-2013, 06:41 AM

Wow, I'm just amazed that they put Flacco ahead of Flavor-of-the-Moment Colin Kaepernick! I mean, c'mon, the kid has won 7 games already!!!

**Ravenblue** · 01-25-2013, 07:17 AM

Originally Posted by BMann

Wow, I'm just amazed that they put Flacco ahead of Flavor-of-the-Moment Colin Kaepernick! I mean, c'mon, the kid has won 7 games already!!!

Simply put, Flacco has more Playoff wins than Kaepernick has Career wins...

**Paintballguy** · 01-25-2013, 07:25 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenblue

Simply put, Flacco has more Playoff wins than Kaepernick has Career wins...

He was being sarcastic.

**JAB1985** · 01-25-2013, 07:34 AM

most regular season wins... does that get you a medal or something?

**Paintballguy** · 01-25-2013, 07:42 AM

Originally Posted by JAB1985

most regular season wins... does that get you a medal or something?

Wins don't count for QB's named Joe Flacco.

**Phantoom** · 01-25-2013, 07:43 AM

With all due respect to Joe and the run he is on, I think I would rank Matt Ryan slightly above him. If Joe continues this into next season, then I will gladly eat crow.

**NCRAVEN** · 01-25-2013, 07:55 AM

Originally Posted by Phantoom

With all due respect to Joe and the run he is on, I think I would rank Matt Ryan slightly above him. If Joe continues this into next season, then I will gladly eat crow.

Matt Ryan reminds me of Tom Brady with a weaker arm. Good at reading defenses, not the best like Manning, but still good. I would not be surprised if he were to never be anything more than what he is now. A good QB who puts up descent stats with good WR's against shitty defenses in the regular season, and that's it.

Switch Joe and Ryan in their teams and I would bet Joe would do better in Atlanta that Ryan does and Ryan would do worse than Joe here.

**RavenScallywag** · 01-25-2013, 07:58 AM

Honestly CincyCat, I would be outraged that they put Ryan Tannehill in front of Andy Dalton.

I'd like for someone to find an objective way to rank them. Like something that accounts for passing stats, team around them, playoff performance, regular season performance.

Stafford being as low as he is seem ridiculous. I guess he's just inflated from having Calvin Johnson, but the guy did throw for 5000 yards last year. That's a pretty rare accomplishment.

**GOTA** · 01-25-2013, 08:01 AM

Ryan only has 2 more regular season wins than Flacco. I'm sure Ryan would give those up for the boatload of postseason wins that Flacco has.

Normally I like Gil Brandt but I just don't follow his logic on this one.

**Phantoom** · 01-25-2013, 08:11 AM

Originally Posted by GOTA

Ryan only has 2 more regular season wins than Flacco. I'm sure Ryan would give those up for the boatload of postseason wins that Flacco has.

Normally I like Gil Brandt but I just don't follow his logic on this one.

The logic is that Matt Ryan is superior in both standard statistics and advanced stats (which try to normalize for things like domes and receiver/o-line prowess) over a significant sample size.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

And for all of Joe's "postseason heroics", he has exactly the same QB rating in his postseason career as Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan certainly has a better home field for stats, and has slightly better receivers, but has never had a great defense or running game like Joe, so comparing wins or postseason wins is dumb.

**alienrace** · 01-25-2013, 08:16 AM

Comparing stats is dumb too.

Ryan lacks the "clutch gene". Don't give the 4th quarter comeback stat in the regular season. Ryan wilts in big games. Look, you saw him put up huge numbers in the NFCC game, and what did those numbers mean? Nothing, because he threw a costly pick and int when the game was in the balance.

Joe has it in spades.

You can't really compare QB's totally by stats. You have to actually watch them play.

**JAB1985** · 01-25-2013, 08:18 AM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

Matt Ryan reminds me of Tom Brady with a weaker arm. Good at reading defenses, not the best like Manning, but still good. I would not be surprised if he were to never be anything more than what he is now. A good QB who puts up descent stats with good WR's against shitty defenses in the regular season, and that's it.

Switch Joe and Ryan in their teams and I would bet Joe would do better in Atlanta that Ryan does and Ryan would do worse than Joe here.

I agree, which is pretty much the ranking process of a QB although completely hypothetical. I get why some dont think Joe is better when comparing them as is but when you add in the variables you listed, in favors Ryan a good bit, making his job a lot easier.

Looking at their Stats, Ryan was pretty much comparable to joe statistically, until they added another #1 (id argue we dont have one truee #1 let alone 2) in Julio Jones did Ryan actually make a leap statistically. Thats if youre a stats guy. I just look at them play and I dont see the hype about Ryan at all. Jones White and Tony G do the work for him.

**NCRAVEN** · 01-25-2013, 08:21 AM

Originally Posted by alienrace

Comparing stats is dumb too.

Ryan lacks the "clutch gene". Don't give the 4th quarter comeback stat in the regular season. Ryan wilts in big games. Look, you saw him put up huge numbers in the NFCC game, and what did those numbers mean? Nothing, because he threw a costly pick and int when the game was in the balance.

Joe has it in spades.

You can't really compare QB's totally by stats. You have to actually watch them play.

Stats leave so much out, they are almost pointless to bring to the table. If a guy has 50 td's a year that's awesome, but what if his team had the best starting filed position in the league? We'll that would be a huge advantage over a guy with 25 td's who has the worst starting filed position.

While that was hypothetical, the point is stats do nothing but muddy the waters.

**Phantoom** · 01-25-2013, 08:22 AM

Originally Posted by alienrace

Comparing stats is dumb too.

Ryan lacks the "clutch gene". Don't give the 4th quarter comeback stat in the regular season. Ryan wilts in big games. Look, you saw him put up huge numbers in the NFCC game, and what did those numbers mean? Nothing, because he threw a costly pick and int when the game was in the balance.

Joe has it in spades.

You can't really compare QB's totally by stats. You have to actually watch them play.

I would love you to explain this "clutch gene" to me. Does Tom Brady have it?

They have run stat studies, and basically no matter how you define "clutch", it turns out that people just play as well as they play. No QB has ever played significantly different from his career stats in the 4th quarter or on game winning drives or in the playoffs (given sample size). I find it hilarious that Matt Ryan would have been "clutch" if they had called the obvious pass interference at the end of the NFC Championship (or his D can hold a lead), or that Joe Flacco would be less "clutch" if a safety does his job in Denver.

If Joe was more clutch, wouldn't he have better postseason stats than Matt Ryan, who is a "choker"?

A lot of people used to believe in clutch in baseball too, where the statistics also proved them wrong.

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

[/B]

Stats leave so much out, they are almost pointless to bring to the table. If a guy has 50 td's a year that's awesome, but what if his team had the best starting filed position in the league? We'll that would be a huge advantage over a guy with 25 td's who has the worst starting filed position.

While that was hypothetical, the point is stats do nothing but muddy the waters.

And this is why we have advanced stats (see what I linked) that normalize for things like that. Feel free to check them out.

**NCRAVEN** · 01-25-2013, 08:27 AM

Originally Posted by Phantoom

I would love you to explain this "clutch gene" to me. Does Tom Brady have it?

They have run stat studies, and basically no matter how you define "clutch", it turns out that people just play as well as they play. No QB has ever played significantly different from his career stats in the 4th quarter or on game winning drives or in the playoffs (given sample size). I find it hilarious that Matt Ryan would have been "clutch" if they had called the obvious pass interference at the end of the NFC Championship (or his D can hold a lead), or that Joe Flacco would be less "clutch" if a safety does his job in Denver.

If Joe was more clutch, wouldn't he have better postseason stats than Matt Ryan, who is a "choker"?

And this is why we have advanced stats (see what I linked) that normalize for things like that. Feel free to check them out.

"There's lies, damn lies, and than there's statistics"

Do advanced stats take into account playing at least 9 games a year in a dome with the greatest Tight end of all time and two #1 WR's, one of which just might be the best athlete in the entire NFL (Julio Jones). I doubt it. Or do they take into account the difference between playing the AFC north and the NFC South?

**leachisabeast** · 01-25-2013, 08:28 AM

Yes lets just completely disregard Joe Flacco throwing a BOMB and Jacoby Jones making the play, and put all the blame on Rahim Moore, because safeties never ever make mistakes like that in coverage....

Its like the whole argument about Ray Rice. "Oh if you take away his long 32 yard gains, he only has 3 YPA", yeah because long runs of 30-60 yards are totally irrelevant and worthless in a game.

FO is alright, and certainly better than PFF IMO, but only 2 teams out of the past ten SB champs have had the top ranked DVOA, so I don't put too much stock into FO.

**Phantoom** · 01-25-2013, 08:32 AM

Originally Posted by NCRAVEN

"There's lies, damn lies, and than there's statistics"

Do advanced stats take into account playing at least 9 games a year in a dome with the greatest Tight end of all time and two #1 WR's, one of which just might be the best athlete in the entire NFL (Julio Jones). I doubt it. Or do they take into account the difference between playing the AFC north and the NFC South?

They actually do. Feel free to read up on them. They also (attempt to) normalize for defense quality, first down yardage, pass interference yards, and do common sense things like not counting hail mary INTs.

Originally Posted by leachisabeast

Yes lets just completely disregard Joe Flacco throwing a BOMB and Jacoby Jones making the play, and put all the blame on Rahim Moore, because safeties never ever make mistakes like that in coverage....

Its like the whole argument about Ray Rice. "Oh if you take away his long 32 yard gains, he only has 3 YPA", yeah because long runs of 30-60 yards are totally irrelevant and worthless in a game.

You are missing my point, which is that we are assigning a lot of value to "clutch", when wins are often in other players (or refs) hands. Two plays go differently and Flacco "can't lead a team to the Super Bowl" and Matt Ryan "Is finally putting it together" and taking his team to the super bowl. Everything changes for these two guys even though they did nothing different.

As Ravens fans who went through what we did last year we should know the QB doesn't control postseason wins by himself.

**somedumbguy** · 01-25-2013, 08:32 AM

I am actually fine with the ranking. It is meaningless next week.

What struck me is how much younger Sam Bradford and Matt Stafford are than Flacco. It all kind of blurs together, but those guys seem so much more beaten up than Flacco. I think of Flacco as a guy that will be around for another decade and I feel like Bradford is about 1 hit away from retiring.

**Justlovemybirds** · 01-25-2013, 08:35 AM

Flacco's post-season rating being the same as Ryan's is due mostly to Flacco's poor performance's in both his rookie and second year. It's not exactly surprising that he didn't do all that well in those games (especially considering he was hurt in one).

And Ryan's receivers are not slightly better than Flacco's, there is a good bit of margin between them. White, Jones and Gonzo are number 1's on pretty much any team in the league.