PREDICTIONS: Super Bowl - 49ers vs. Ravens, score, MVP, and explain...

[Uli2001]

I've been leaning more and more towards Ravens blowout in recent days.

First, the trends of the two defenses are in complete opposite directions. That to me is the single biggest factor.

Second, the disparity in schedule strength. The Ravens at #4, Niners #24, really lends to me believing the Niners are over-rated to at least some degree. Now, not completely, because they were very impressive in beating Green Bay and New England on the road this season.

Lastly, I just have a hard time believing that a QB with 9 games experience, is going to fare well against the Ravens in a big game.

The key to this game will be stopping Gore and the SF halfbacks.

There's no way Kp will be able to carry them, either through the air or running the ball. The Ravens will hit him hard if he tries to run.

Flacco and co will score through the air. There's no question about that, playing in a dome, on a fast field, and against a suspect SF secondary. This will put a lot of pressure on Kp. Again, SF's best chance will be to control the time of possession with Gore and score on long drives.

I believe the Ravens have already beaten a better team than SF in Denver, on their field, and have beaten (dominated) a team at least as good as SF in NE, on their field and for a trip to the SB (not a regular season game like the 49ers win).

A lot will ride on turnovers, as always. The Ravens offense has been very good at not turning the ball over recently.

I will be surprised if the Ravens don't win but, that's why they play the games.

[Lee Van Cleef]

I don't make predictions, but I will say the best case for the Ravens winning I've seen was put forward by my former team mate Ben Stockwell at PFF:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...they-will-win/

The Case for the Ravens…
By Ben Stockwell

Having called for a Baltimore Super Bowl win in our preseason picks column way back at the start of the season (included here for your amusement) it was clear that I had to be the person to set out the case for the Ravens to defeat the 49ers in New Orleans on Sunday. That said, I absolutely don’t deny that I have the harder case to make, as the Super Bowl draws ever closer it is undeniable that San Francisco looks like the stronger team on paper.

However, the game isn’t played on paper and with the way the Ravens have ridden a wave of momentum, it’s clear that they don’t need to win every single down to collect their second Lombardi Trophy in just over a decade. Against a team that is happy to slow the game down and shorten it in terms of snaps, Baltimore doesn’t need many quick-strike drives to turn the game in their favor.

For the Ravens that puts a premium on making timely big plays and they’ve come through in spades in just that area over the last month of the season. To win this game the Ravens don’t need to control it from start to finish and choke the life out of the 49ers — more is the point: they aren’t good enough to do that. How the Ravens can, and will, win this game is through timely big plays (the way they beat the Denver Broncos) and by hanging close before taking over the game for a 10-15 minute spell and fully capitalizing on that control.

The latter tactic is exactly how they beat the Patriots and momentum tends to play a big role in deciding Super Bowls. Momentum shifts are all about making big plays and, though the Ravens may lack the consistency to control the game, they have players on both sides of the ball that can make those momentum-shifting plays. On defense they have Paul Kruger who was a one-man wrecking crew in the wildcard victory over the Colts. He could easily remind everyone of the kind of pass protector that Anthony Davis was in 2011 (-8.4 pass protection grade, 10 sacks allowed) and could extract a big play from Joe Staley who, for all of his consistency, surrendered nine sacks this season including the playoffs.

In coverage, the Ravens have made timely plays with Corey Graham’s efforts against both the Colts (+2.0 coverage, 2 pass defenses) and the Broncos (+1.9 coverage, 2 interceptions), and free safety Ed Reed is overdue, having not collected an interception or pass defense since Week 13.

When the Ravens make that tsunami swinging play they have the players on offense who have a habit of getting on hot streaks and maximizing momentum when they have it. Anquan Boldin isn’t always a 60-minute receiver, but for spells that range between 10 and 30 minutes he can be absolutely uncoverable and can boss a secondary physically. Combine that with Torrey Smith’s big-play ability that will stretch the 49ers’ secondary vertically and create space for both Boldin and Ray Rice, in both the run and passing game, and you have all of the performers you need to make the most of a game-changing opportunity.

A football game lasts 60 minutes, but the Ravens don’t need to win all 60 to take the Lombardi Trophy. They need to stay close enough that when the momentum swings their way their clutch performers can take the game away from San Francisco with a series of big plays, or a period of dominance from which the 49ers just can’t recover. The Ravens will get their chances and then it simply becomes a case of capitalizing on as many of those opportunities as possible.

I completely agree with him on how they can win this game. And that's why this game is scary. The niners aren't a flashy team, they grind with their pure phyiscality and the Ravens haven't faced a team like that on their current hot streak.

I've had a sneaking feeling since the middle of last week that Ed Reed is going to play a big part in this game.

[Cj34]

I'll do a complete prediction including stats.

Ravens 31-23

The first half will be relatively slow. The 49ers will have a 10-3 lead and then Pitta will catch a TD from Joe late in the first half to tie it. The halftime score will be 10-10. The Ravens will score a TD on their opening 2nd half possession on a pass to Torry deep to go ahead 17-10. 49ers get a FG - 17-13. Late in the 3Q Ed Reed will bait Kaepernick into a pick 6 - Ravens 24-13. Another FG for San Fran - 24-16. In the 4th Ngata will get a bone jarring hit on LaMichael James and recover a fumble. The Ravens will then methodically drive down the field. Rice gets a rushing TD. The Ravens will actually be ahead 31-16 and SF will score a garbage TD with a couple minutes left. Final score 31-23 Baltimore.

MVP: Flacco (with a slight possibility of Reed)

Stats:

Flacco 23 att -37 comp 284 yards 2 TD
Rice 19 att - 65 rushing yds, 1 TD 3 rec, 27 yds
Pierce 10 att - 55 rushing yds 1 rec, 8 yds
Pitta 6 rec, 74 yds, 1 TD
Bolden 6 rec, 65 yds
Smith 4 rec, 95 yds, 1 TD
Dickson 1 rec, 6 yds
Doss 1 rec, 5 yds
Leach 1 rec, 4 yds

Reed 1 Int, 1 TD (48 yd int TD return)
Ngata 1 FF, 1 FR
Lewis 11 tackles

[sailorsam]

Joe Flacco has more playoff starts than Colin Kapernick has NFL starts. This difference in experience will be the difference as the Ravens get two td passes (one Boldin, one Torrey Smith) and 50 yards receiving from Dennis Pitta.
Kaepernick throw two interceptions.
Baltimore 27
San Fran 17

[StingerNLG]

Ravens: 28
49'ers: 24

I have no false conceptions that the 49ers are not going to put up points on the Ravens. I would be surprised if they got shut down. But everyone now seems to just focus on what the offense of the 49ers will do, and not what the Ravens are capable of now. The Ravens are absolutely capable of getting into a shootout with the 49ers, and I think that if they did, the Ravens come out on top of that.

MVP is either Flacco or Boldin.

[Brinmill76]

Ravens 33
49 ers 25

Ray Rice will be MVP, Ed Reed will make a key interception late in the game similar to Troy Palumalu five years ago in the AFC championship game.

[Terpsfan82]

Áfter reading Ngata's quote in another thread I'm ready to give my prediction. I was a little concerned about this matchup and I had a hard time getting a good "feel" for how I think it's going to play out. Initially, I expect a hard hitting defensive struggle as both teams seek to exert their will on the other. But in the end the Ravens win 27-23, with MVP honors going to either Reed or Flacco.

[Ravenous1]

My head says it will be a close game but in my heart I just have a feeling that Ravens win much bigger. Nothing quantifiable to back that up other than a gut feeling. The Ravens managed to make two of the better QB's this league has in Manning and Brady look pretty average. I cant buy what the MSM is trying to sell which is that a kid with just 9 games starting in the NFL is going to have substantially more success than those two guys against a veteran led defense

I see the final being 30-20 and its only that close due to a late SF TD. Flacco is MVP with 2 TD.

[DonNMass]

My only fear is, and with all due respect to the great effort the last 6 or so games, is if Pees can handle everything that's predicted to come his way. This board didn't call him the reincarnation of Pops Mattison for nothing early in the year, and the lack of pressure on Vick and Cousins turned possible W's into L's. (McCrary was all over his soft approach to Vick) Even in the playoffs, Luck, Manning, and Brady still racked up some big yards.

If Pees brings the Ravens swagger and dictates the plays, 31-17 Ravens. If Pees calls bend, don't break, reactionary D. SF wins 24-17.

One fans humble opinion!

[SNAFU]

I predict the winning coach will be Harbaugh! Ravens--21 49ers--17

[leachisabeast]

My only fear is, and with all due respect to the great effort the last 6 or so games, is if Pees can handle everything that's predicted to come his way. This board didn't call him the reincarnation of Pops Mattison for nothing early in the year, and the lack of pressure on Vick and Cousins turned possible W's into L's. (McCrary was all over his soft approach to Vick) Even in the playoffs, Luck, Manning, and Brady still racked up some big yards.

If Pees brings the Ravens swagger and dictates the plays, 31-17 Ravens. If Pees calls bend, don't break, reactionary D. SF wins 24-17.

One fans humble opinion!

Bend but don't break is probably the best possible strategy against an offense like this. You can't just end blitzes after blitzes against CK, he will make you pay.

[Paintballguy]

I was watching the Thanksgiving game from last season. I noticed that in the first half Cam was ultra conservative. They ran a lot of 21 personnel and usually went run-run-pass. They ended up in 3rd in long a lot and Flacco couldn't really get in a rhythm. In the second half they went 11 personnel out of the shotgun and passed more on first down which was effective. Flacco seemed to move the ball with ease on a drive which ended up being the game sealing TD to Pitta. I expect to see a lot of 11 personnel with an up tempo no huddle offense against the 49ers Sunday. Caldwell has to get Flacco in a rhythm early. I've had enough of the lineup in I formation and pound Rice on 1st and 2nd down. We are a passing team. Spread em out and let Flacco do his thing.

[goldenelite28]

OMG I'm so tired of everyone saying the 49ers have more talent. So wrong.

[leachisabeast]

I wouldn't say we're a passing team, I would like to think we're a balanced team. You can't really open up aggresive against defenses like SF, you have to grind it out for the first half, then when the times right, get aggressive with the no huddle, SF will start selling out to the run eventually. That's been the formula for us in this run, and its worked to perfection so far.

[Paintballguy]

I wouldn't say we're a passing team, I would like to think we're a balanced team. You can't really open up aggresive against defenses like SF, you have to grind it out for the first half, then when the times right, get aggressive with the no huddle, SF will start selling out to the run eventually. That's been the formula for us in this run, and its worked to perfection so far.

You can still run out of a 1 back set and no huddle. I'm not saying to abandon the run or run the no huddle 100% of the time. Just to mix it up.

NE had a lot of success against SF when they ran a no huddle.

[leachisabeast]

You can still run out of a 1 back set and no huddle. I'm not saying to abandon the run or run the no huddle 100% of the time. Just to mix it up.

NE had a lot of success against SF when they ran a no huddle.

Good point, maybe we should exclusively run the no huddle.

[Paintballguy]

Good point, maybe we should exclusively run the no huddle.

Check out this interview with Cosell http://49ers.pressdemocrat.com/2012/...se-got-tired/l.

Q: Should the 49ers consider themselves lucky they beat the Patriots? There were so many fumbles they got back.

COSELL: They won the game, but you know what struck me? The second half the Patriots went to their speed no-huddle and the Niners’s defense got tired and they couldn’t rush the quarterback – it was really interesting watching it on film. It was really interesting for that long stretch there to see the 49ers on their heels, little pass rush, having to play some players that they probably didn’t want out there for that many snaps because they needed to get some guys some rest. It was really interesting.

But who else is going to do that? Seattle? I don’t know. They haven’t really done it this year.

Q: How much of the lack of pressure had to do with fatigue, and how much had to do with the absence of Justin Smith?

COSELL: Probably both. And then it’s funny, because all of a sudden late in the game after they were worn out, they had back-to-back sacks – the incredible one by McDonald, and then the great one by Ricky Jean where he just beat Solder. But for a long stretch, they got no pressure on Brady at all.

[Paintballguy]

Also, some more stuff from Cosell talking about the Ravens offense against NE.

They did a great job when they went to their no huddle out of 11 personnel with three wide receivers. They did pretty much go up and down the field. I thought the Patriots were very basic and very vanilla on defense. A lot of that was pitch-and-catch for Flacco. It will be interesting to see what the 49ers do. The 49ers have good players, but their coverage concepts are not necessarily that complicated. With two weeks to prepare, every team has a few new wrinkles, and I’ll be interested to see how the 49ers choose to play coverage.

The Ravens have had more success running the ball out of three wide receivers and one back than out of two backs. They’ve had far more success running when they get the opponent in Nickel. I think that’s the way they’ll stay. They’re predominantly a zone running team. They run a ton of weak-side zone. The Niners will know that, because that’s what film study is. That’s ultimately how they try to run the football. The interesting thing against the Patriots, beginning in the second half the Ravens had five consecutive possessions in which they lined up with three wide and went predominantly no huddle. They up-tempoed the game. You’ve got to be prepared for that when you play the Ravens.

Q: Is Joe Flacco underrated?

COSELL: I think he’s a much better passer than he’s given credit for. He’s an elite passer. He’s an elite arm talent. Prior to Kaepernick, I firmly believed that Flacco had the strongest arm in the NFL, and arm strength is not throwing the ball 90 yards. Arm strength is driving intermediate throws with ease at 22, 25 yards between defenders. Flacco is a master at that. Those are not easy throws because they’re really 40-yard throws when you count the drop. He’s effortless with those throws. He almost doesn’t need to step into those throws. He’s a great deep ball thrower, playing in a offense that’s very hard to complete a high percentage because they drive the ball down the field very often. There are very few easy completions in that offense. And his receivers, quite frankly, struggle winning against man coverage. So he’s making very difficult throws to covered receivers.

[GOTA]

I guarantee that no matter what happens Caldwell is going to make some half time adjustments.

We're going to see a close and low scoring 1st half. The points will ratchet up in the 3rd quarter and a big turnover will be the difference in the 4th.

Ravens 27
49ers 20

Joe Flacco throws 2 TDs and is crowned MVP

[HoustonRaven]

My only fear is, and with all due respect to the great effort the last 6 or so games, is if Pees can handle everything that's predicted to come his way. This board didn't call him the reincarnation of Pops Mattison for nothing early in the year, and the lack of pressure on Vick and Cousins turned possible W's into L's. (McCrary was all over his soft approach to Vick) Even in the playoffs, Luck, Manning, and Brady still racked up some big yards.

If Pees brings the Ravens swagger and dictates the plays, 31-17 Ravens. If Pees calls bend, don't break, reactionary D. SF wins 24-17.

One fans humble opinion!

Agreed.

The Niners are not the team you want to give a ton of offensive possessions or a lot of time on the field.

They've shown all season they will wear you down if given enough chances. The key is stopping the running game.

And I agree with your score analysis 100%