Salary Cap Notes: Corey Graham and Michael Oher cash in

[leachisabeast]

The rookie pool is a very small factor. Once we extend our ERFA offers (around $500k a piece), that will get us to our 51. Only your 1st, 2nd, and early 3rd round picks will make much more than the $500k of the lowest guy on the rule-of-51 ladder.

The Ravens are drafting 31st or 32nd, so their 1st rounder won't really make much more ($400-$600k) than the guy he'd be replacing on the 51. Our 2nd rounder, being #61 or 62, probably is only going to up the cap # $200-$250k. By the time we get around to drafting our 3rd rounder(s), that 3rd rounder probably isn't going to affect the cap # at all.

The 2013 draft class, even with 11 picks, probably won't alter our cap by more than $1.5 million in its entirety.

I also think its almost certain we wont be drafting 11 players, I think we may be seeing an odd year where we trade up in certain rounds. Currently I have us trading up in the 3rd round for Chris Faulk (OT, LSU) and picking Markus Wheaton (WR, Oregon state) with the other 3rd. That gives up a 4th, a 5th and a 6th in my estimation.

[trailhiker85]

If everything goes to plan, it wont be that bad, a lot of players will have to be cut, in my mock offseason document the following players get cut/retire:

Ray Lewis (obviously already gone)
Bobbie Williams
Matt Birk (I think he retires)
Jameel McClain
Jacoby Jones
Vonta Leach
Brenden Ayanbaedjo

That saves around $17.34M and will put us in better position, it will allow us to sign one or two solid FAs while re-signing Kruger and Ellerbe (depending on how much they want) and the contracts will be back loaded, or they will be contracts were the first year cap hit is minimal. Yeah you can look at that list and say, yeah that's a significant amount of talent gone, but you have to make these tough choices, I believe we're still a play off team without these players anyway.

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I seem to recall B-more Ravor saying in another thread that Jameel McClain is likely to be kept in part because there's an awful lot of dead money involved in releasing him. Sorry I don't have the exact figures, but do you think McClain will be gone in spite of his dead money hit? I know that many aren't keen on his past performance, but he does provide experience in the middle to go along with Ellerbe (and I really, really hope we can keep Ellerbe).

[LukeDaniel]

Ray Lewis (obviously already gone)
Bobbie Williams
Matt Birk (I think he retires)
Jameel McClain
Jacoby Jones
Vonta Leach
Brenden Ayanbaedjo

Jones saves $4 million
Leach saves $3 million ($7 total)
Williams saves $1.2 million ($8.2)
McClain saves $1.8 ($10)
Birk saves $2 ($12)
Lewis saves $3.7 ($15.7)
Ayanabdejo saves $940k ($16.6)


What you have to understand is that is that trimming these 7 contracts off the roster doesn't save the $16.6 though, because you still have to fill their seven spots on the rule of 51 with another player. If you estimate that each of those players will make $500k, that's $3.5 right there. So the savings aren't quite as great. It's not as if dead money occupies one of the 51 slots.

That's why it might not make a ton of sense to cut Ayanbadejo. You really are only saving $400k.

That's also why it might not make sense to cut Jameel either. You can either pay him $4.2 towards 2013 or cut him and still pay $2.4 in dead money. If you assume that his replacement spot on the roster will be filled by a cheap rookie, the true savings is only $1.3 million

If you want to get a true cap savings by cutting a player, add $500 back on to the total. That is the total that is saved if replaced by a rookie/2nd year/ERFA on the 51 salary cap roster.

Now, the plus side is that when you sign a free agent not on your roster, the cap hit isn't as severe. If you sign Player A and his first year cap # is $3.25 million, the actual increase would be around $2.75 million because his addition to the rule of 51 will push a player who was making $500k off the roster.

[LukeDaniel]

Not to put words in anyone's mouth, but I seem to recall B-more Ravor saying in another thread that Jameel McClain is likely to be kept in part because there's an awful lot of dead money involved in releasing him. Sorry I don't have the exact figures, but do you think McClain will be gone in spite of his dead money hit? I know that many aren't keen on his past performance, but he does provide experience in the middle to go along with Ellerbe (and I really, really hope we can keep Ellerbe).

Exactly. I touched on this in the thread above. Keep him for $4.2 million or cut him and have $2.4 in dead money. It's the type of contract that makes you wonder if cutting him even makes sense.

[bmorecareful]

Jones saves $4 million
Leach saves $3 million ($7 total)
Williams saves $1.2 million ($8.2)
McClain saves $1.8 ($10)
Birk saves $2 ($12)
Lewis saves $3.7 ($15.7)
Ayanabdejo saves $940k ($16.6)


What you have to understand is that is that trimming these 7 contracts off the roster doesn't save the $16.6 though, because you still have to fill their seven spots on the rule of 51 with another player. If you estimate that each of those players will make $500k, that's $3.5 right there. So the savings aren't quite as great. It's not as if dead money occupies one of the 51 slots.

That's why it might not make a ton of sense to cut Ayanbadejo. You really are only saving $400k.

That's also why it might not make sense to cut Jameel either. You can either pay him $4.2 towards 2013 or cut him and still pay $2.4 in dead money. If you assume that his replacement spot on the roster will be filled by a cheap rookie, the true savings is only $1.3 million

If you want to get a true cap savings by cutting a player, add $500 back on to the total. That is the total that is saved if replaced by a rookie/2nd year/ERFA on the 51 salary cap roster.

Now, the plus side is that when you sign a free agent not on your roster, the cap hit isn't as severe. If you sign Player A and his first year cap # is $3.25 million, the actual increase would be around $2.75 million because his addition to the rule of 51 will push a player who was making $500k off the roster.

Very nice breakdown and a succinct, accurate, and helpful way of characterizing the frequently-disregarded rule of 51 and its impact on the cap. Ayanbadejo and McClain aren't going anywhere. The rest are viable cuts IMO.

The bottom line is that it's really not possible to know what the Ravens' offseason plans (and the 2013 roster) will include until Joe Flacco is secured for 2013. There are indications that the team will go all out to lock Flacco up long-term as soon as the new league year opens, and if that happens then we'll be able to work off of that. But if they don't get anything done and need to franchise him, I actually doubt they'll be able to sign a single FA, whether extending their own guys or signing guys off the street.

The tag is going to completely obliterate their cap space unless and until an extension is reached. If that's late in the offseason or even after the season opener, they're going to miss out on free agency apart from picking up a few scrap heapers after final cuts. That's not necessarily a huge problem, frankly, but as I've been saying all along, the 2013 draft is going to be the most important in a very long time (they're all important, of course.)

If my "worst-case" scenario of entering the season with Flacco under the tag comes to fruition, they will likely be looking to draftees to compete for starting jobs at several positions: FS, ILB, and LT for sure, and possibly WR as well. This year we had 2 rookies play substantial/starter level snaps: KO and Courtney Upshaw. Next year it could be as many as 4, depending on who wins jobs out of training camp.

[bmorecareful]

In fact, I'm going to go through each position on the roster and highlight the Ravens' options without signing a single free agent this offseason and making several of the discussed cuts to free up the QB franchise tag space. This is the "worst case scenario" plan. Starters in bold, training camp competition participants in italics. As I see it, LT, WILL, FS, NT, and FB all look like MAJOR question marks.

QB - Flacco
WR - #1 Boldin #2 Torrey #3 Doss (co-starter if we go to primarily 3-wide sets) #4-6 Streeter/Williams/Thompson/Reed/Draft pick
LT - Draft pick/Oher
LG - Osemele
C - Gradkowski
RG - Yanda
RT - Oher/draft pick
RB - Rice/Pierce
FB - Draft pick/Pitta (as H-Back)/none
TE - #1 Pitta #2 Dickson/Draft pick

DE/DT - McPhee/Jones
NT - Draft pick/Cody
DT - Ngata
SAM - Upshaw
MIKE - McClain
WILL - Bynes/McClellan/Draft pick
RUSH - Suggs
CB - #1 Webb #2 Graham #3 Smith/Brown
SS - Pollard
FS - Thompson/Cook/Draft pick

K - Tucker
P - Koch
KR - Thompson/Reed/etc.
PR - Rainey/Webb/etc.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

In fact, I'm going to go through each position on the roster and highlight the Ravens' options without signing a single free agent this offseason and making several of the discussed cuts to free up the QB franchise tag space. This is the "worst case scenario" plan. Starters in bold, training camp competition participants in italics. As I see it, LT, WILL, FS, NT, and FB all look like MAJOR question marks.

QB - Flacco
WR - #1 Boldin #2 Torrey #3 Doss (co-starter if we go to primarily 3-wide sets) #4-6 Streeter/Williams/Thompson/Reed/Draft pick
LT - Draft pick/Oher
LG - Osemele
C - Gradkowski
RG - Yanda
RT - Oher/draft pick
RB - Rice/Pierce
FB - Draft pick/Pitta (as H-Back)/none

DE/DT - McPhee/Jones
NT - Draft pick/Cody
DT - Ngata
SAM - Upshaw
MIKE - McClain
WILL - Bynes/McClellan/Draft pick
RUSH - Suggs
CB - #1 Webb #2 Graham #3 Smith/Brown
SS - Pollard
FS - Thompson/Cook/Draft pick

K - Tucker
P - Koch
KR - Thompson/Reed/etc.
PR - Rainey/Webb/etc.

That defense will need a huge influx of speed in the front 7. That is a pretty slow defense.

[leachisabeast]

I think there is no way we go into the 2013 season with that defense, the Ravens will address the key areas in FA and the draft, although Bmore did say "worse case scenario".

[leachisabeast]

Jones saves $4 million
Leach saves $3 million ($7 total)
Williams saves $1.2 million ($8.2)
McClain saves $1.8 ($10)
Birk saves $2 ($12)
Lewis saves $3.7 ($15.7)
Ayanabdejo saves $940k ($16.6)


What you have to understand is that is that trimming these 7 contracts off the roster doesn't save the $16.6 though, because you still have to fill their seven spots on the rule of 51 with another player. If you estimate that each of those players will make $500k, that's $3.5 right there. So the savings aren't quite as great. It's not as if dead money occupies one of the 51 slots.

That's why it might not make a ton of sense to cut Ayanbadejo. You really are only saving $400k.

That's also why it might not make sense to cut Jameel either. You can either pay him $4.2 towards 2013 or cut him and still pay $2.4 in dead money. If you assume that his replacement spot on the roster will be filled by a cheap rookie, the true savings is only $1.3 million

If you want to get a true cap savings by cutting a player, add $500 back on to the total. That is the total that is saved if replaced by a rookie/2nd year/ERFA on the 51 salary cap roster.

Now, the plus side is that when you sign a free agent not on your roster, the cap hit isn't as severe. If you sign Player A and his first year cap # is $3.25 million, the actual increase would be around $2.75 million because his addition to the rule of 51 will push a player who was making $500k off the roster.

IDK where i got 17 mill from, I went back and yeah its 16.6. I have mostly rookies replacing those players, with two key FA signings (Terrence Knighton, and Kenny Phillips).

There will be growing pains no doubt, it will be a much younger team, but I'm not expecting a 2002 type hangover at all, we aren't in that bad of shape IMO.

[bmorecareful]

That defense will need a huge influx of speed in the front 7. That is a pretty slow defense.

I agree... my personal suggestion is moving to more of a 4-3 Under front in order to get faster. That would take Cody off the field and move Ngata to 4-3 nose... the big advantage of the 4-3 under is that it's kind of a hybrid of 3-4 and 4-3 personnel so we already have some guys who fit well, and it's all about penetrating the line.

LDE (5-tech) Upshaw
NT (1-tech) Ngata
DT (3-tech) Jones/McPhee
RDE (9-tech) Suggs
SAM - McClellan/Hamilton (in the 4-3 under this position plays up on the LOS similarly to more of a 3-4 front, this is the position Von Miller plays in Denver)
MIKE - McClain
WILL - Ellerbe if resigned... but need a very speedy Lavonte David type of player if not (Khaseem Greene is a good fit in that spot.)

You upgrade speed by taking Cody off the field and asking your DTs to penetrate while your SAM and MIKE eat up blocks and your WILL runs free. I'm not sure on the fit for some of those guys... Upshaw isn't a great fit anywhere really but he defends the run well and the 5-tech LDE is the run stopping end. I'm not sure if Art Jones is an explosive enough pass rusher to play 3-tech.. usually you want a Geno Atkins type of quick-twitch guy there. Ngata, a healthy Suggs, and McClellan are all good fits, though.

[leachisabeast]

McClain at Mike, please god no....

[leachisabeast]

The change to a 4-3 looks good on paper, but its probably really unlikely. We haven't ran a 4-3 for a while, and idk if Pees has any history running a 4-3 either.

[bmorecareful]

McClain at Mike, please god no....

I'm not crazy about it, but there aren't a lot of other options. Maybe Bynes beats him out in training camp? Maybe he'll look better with better DL play in front of him? He played pretty well in 2010 and 2011, maybe 2012 was the exception. I slotted him in at MIKE because he's definitely not athletic or fast enough to play WILL.

The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. The money's just not there. The Ravens will survive like they always have.

[LukeDaniel]

[QUOTE=bmorecareful;571551]
The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. QUOTE]

The only way we would be close to having this happen would be if we had to franchise Flacco and kept Leach/Boldin/Jones at their current cap #s.

I don't have my cap spreadsheet here at work, but even if we had to give Joe a $16 million fanchise tag and opted to keep Jacoby/Quan/Vonta (assuming cut/retire to Birk and cutting Bobby Williams) that would put us around $122-$123 based on my memory of what it looks like. I believe, with our carryover from 2012, our salary cap ceiling is $122.

So imagine if we get Flacco signed longterm ($6 million+ in savings) and part ways with Jones and Leach ($7 million savings). That would give us $12 million or so in cap money to spend without even having to touch Boldin's contract. We can keep Kruger and Ellerbe for that amount and possibly even bring in one more FA. Or, if 99 and 59 get too expensive, we can get four decent mid-level free agents for that amount too.

If we want to keep either Jones or Leach, then we could probably do so as well and still be somewhat active in resigning Kruger/Ellerbe or getting 2-3 free agents.

Getting Flacco signed long-term is the pivotal event of this offseason. Without it, we are basically treading water with our current guys. With it, we are actually not in a bad spot in the least.

[trailhiker85]

What is the deadline for an NFL team to declare whom, if anyone, they are going to franchise tag in 2013?

[leachisabeast]

[QUOTE=LukeDaniel;571575]

The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. QUOTE]

The only way we would be close to having this happen would be if we had to franchise Flacco and kept Leach/Boldin/Jones at their current cap #s.

I don't have my cap spreadsheet here at work, but even if we had to give Joe a $16 million fanchise tag and opted to keep Jacoby/Quan/Vonta (assuming cut/retire to Birk and cutting Bobby Williams) that would put us around $122-$123 based on my memory of what it looks like. I believe, with our carryover from 2012, our salary cap ceiling is $122.

So imagine if we get Flacco signed longterm ($6 million+ in savings) and part ways with Jones and Leach ($7 million savings). That would give us $12 million or so in cap money to spend without even having to touch Boldin's contract. We can keep Kruger and Ellerbe for that amount and possibly even bring in one more FA. Or, if 99 and 59 get too expensive, we can get four decent mid-level free agents for that amount too.

If we want to keep either Jones or Leach, then we could probably do so as well and still be somewhat active in resigning Kruger/Ellerbe or getting 2-3 free agents.

Getting Flacco signed long-term is the pivotal event of this offseason. Without it, we are basically treading water with our current guys. With it, we are actually not in a bad spot in the least.

This is around what I've worked out too, I don't understand where the whole "no cap at all" thing is coming from. Sure, its not perfect, but its not the Pittsburgh Steelers. I worked out (despite the minor mistake of working out 17 mill instead of 16.5) we will be able to afford two solid FA's and will be able to re-sign Kruger and Ellerbe, unless they get crazy with their demands (isn't really out of the questions tbh). Even though I love the likes of Leach, the upside of cutting him to keep guys like Kruger and Ellerbe is higher than keeping a 32 year old FB.

[bmorecareful]

[QUOTE=LukeDaniel;571575]

The whole point is that the Ravens could EASILY go into 2013 without signing a single free agent. They just don't have the cap space. Kruger, Ellerbe, Cary, McKinnie... all gone. QUOTE]

The only way we would be close to having this happen would be if we had to franchise Flacco and kept Leach/Boldin/Jones at their current cap #s.

I don't have my cap spreadsheet here at work, but even if we had to give Joe a $16 million fanchise tag and opted to keep Jacoby/Quan/Vonta (assuming cut/retire to Birk and cutting Bobby Williams) that would put us around $122-$123 based on my memory of what it looks like. I believe, with our carryover from 2012, our salary cap ceiling is $122.

So imagine if we get Flacco signed longterm ($6 million+ in savings) and part ways with Jones and Leach ($7 million savings). That would give us $12 million or so in cap money to spend without even having to touch Boldin's contract. We can keep Kruger and Ellerbe for that amount and possibly even bring in one more FA. Or, if 99 and 59 get too expensive, we can get four decent mid-level free agents for that amount too.

If we want to keep either Jones or Leach, then we could probably do so as well and still be somewhat active in resigning Kruger/Ellerbe or getting 2-3 free agents.

Getting Flacco signed long-term is the pivotal event of this offseason. Without it, we are basically treading water with our current guys. With it, we are actually not in a bad spot in the least.

[QUOTE=leachisabeast;571579]

This is around what I've worked out too, I don't understand where the whole "no cap at all" thing is coming from. Sure, its not perfect, but its not the Pittsburgh Steelers. I worked out (despite the minor mistake of working out 17 mill instead of 16.5) we will be able to afford two solid FA's and will be able to re-sign Kruger and Ellerbe, unless they get crazy with their demands (isn't really out of the questions tbh). Even though I love the likes of Leach, the upside of cutting him to keep guys like Kruger and Ellerbe is higher than keeping a 32 year old FB.

I get all that, but refer to my original posts on this topic... if Flacco is franchised, that would put us over the cap of $120m RIGHT THERE... without signing a single free agent! In other words, you're talking about cutting guys just to make weight. Dumping Jacoby and Vonta and freeing up their 7m is a good move, but that gets you down to a payroll of about $115m, all else equal. That's projected to be $5m under the cap. They could PROBABLY get one of Kruger and Ellerbe under that, but both would be a big stretch... do they really want to be right at the cap again with back-loaded contracts dragging down the future?

I agree that Flacco's long-term contract is the pivotal issue, but the real question is not IF it happens but WHEN it happens. If the Ravens have to franchise Flacco they're out of free agency, period, until the tag is lifted via long-term deal. The worst case scenario here is that Flacco remains on the franchise tag through the entire offseason. By opening day guys like Ellerbe, Kruger, Knighton, Kenny Phillips, etc. will have all likely signed elsewhere--they're not going to wait for the Ravens on a handshake deal in all likelihood.

That's why I called it the worst case scenario--and, unfortunately, I think it has a strong possibility of playing out. The Ravens want to get a deal done quickly but they had the entire season to do that and the FO had more leverage months ago. Now Flacco has a lot of leverage, and that could complicate the process. I think it gets done but I don't know if the odds are good that it happens before late summer.

[Boulderraven]

Ravens always do cap magic, they will again. We will lose a few players and add some. Birk might not retire, btw if you read his interview. He played pretty well this year. Their might be a few restructured deals here and thier but not much change in the roster next year except for a handful of players. I think Leach might be released (possibly resigned), something will happen Boldins deal and Jones but I expect them both back likey with longerterm contracts. People freak out 2 years ago we let go Heap, WM. Mase and Buddy Lee and make AFFCG, Last year Grubbs, Johnson, Mckinney, Redding and backup S's and make AFFCG again! Relax.... Joe will sign longterm deal with cap freindly 2013 like Rice and then cap goes up again in 2014. The beat moves on. 90% of the teams have the same problem but not the depth or talent level of the Ravens or the shrewd FO. Raves always have a plan and many backup plans.

[B-more Ravor]

The Cap numbers for the 42 players under contract for 2013 are now updated and on the site:

http://russellstreetreport.com/salar...ns-salary-cap/

[B-more Ravor]

The only way we would be close to having this happen would be if we had to franchise Flacco and kept Leach/Boldin/Jones at their current cap #s.

I don't have my cap spreadsheet here at work, but even if we had to give Joe a $16 million fanchise tag and opted to keep Jacoby/Quan/Vonta (assuming cut/retire to Birk and cutting Bobby Williams) that would put us around $122-$123 based on my memory of what it looks like. I believe, with our carryover from 2012, our salary cap ceiling is $122.

I think that's bit optimistic. Right now, after tendering their RFAs and ERFAs and including the savings from Ray's retirement, I would project the team to have around $5M under (could be more like $6-7M if they decline to tender some of their RFAs - Harewood, DReed). That includes a full carryover of the $1.182M from this year. If you add in the retirements of Birk and Williams, that number goes up to just under $7.5M. So, if they are forced to franchise Flacco, they will have to do a lot more work, via restructures, extensions or releases, to just get under the Cap.

I would agree with bmorecareful, if they have to franchise Flacco, they are likely out of free agency, including re-signing some of their own (at least, barring wholesale restructures/releases/extensions).

So, IMO, the key to their offseason is getting a deal done with Flacco.