Who to keep

[mrfactoid]

Providing we sign the mvp to a long term deal which will help the cap., I think we should try to keep 2/3 of the team togther if possible. By 2/3 i mean offense and special teams. Extend Boldin and Jones 2-3 years each and Pitta for 3 years. Dickson I would let go. Jones fills a few areas, wide reciever and is a great return guy. Now you have Joe, Q, Smith,Pitta and Jones back for at least 2-3 more years together which should keep our offense in the top tier. Mckinnie I don't know about, I guess a contract laden with clauses but I don't trust he will live up to it. Defense wise I'd keep Ellerbe and let Krueger go and Cary go. Webb and Graham as corners and Jimmy and C Brown in our nickel with Pollard and maybe Ed if he gave a home town discount which I doubt he will do. Draft wise we need few spots filled obviously. I see very little dropoff if you can keep that together.

[lobachevsky]

I don't see how the Ravens can keep both Q & Jacoby--they're both due big paydays & they won't both take a cut. Doss isn't Q & never will be but if he hits the weight room hard & can put on 10-12 lb in the upper body & work on catching, he might not be too much of a step down. Deonte Thompson &/or Tommy Streeter are the capstrapped-man's candidates for Jacoby's role.
Dickson would be nice to keep but he doesn't seem to do the job as a blocker & someone will pay too much for him.

Ellerbe needs to be reupped to anchor the defensive interior. Kruger, much as I hate to say it, is going to walk--we can't afford him, Upshaw is going to be more of a 3-down player, & there are young guys like Adrian Hamilton that need a look as situational edge rushers. Kemo moves on but Tyson might be able to fill in. Can't see Ed Reeeeeed signing a cap-friendly extension & it's not clear there's anyone on the roster who could jump in (Christian Thompson?) I think they'll start the season with Ellerbe & McClain at ILB for lack of better alternatives--I don''t think they'd bite on Te'o unless he fell to the end of round 2 & maybe not then.

The huuuuuge problem is LOT. Oher plays a middling-to-poor LT & a pretty good RT, but he still thinks of himself as a LT & wants to be paid as such; the move to RT was in his mind temporary in order to get the best line on the field. If they find anyone else to play LT--& that specifically includes re-signing McKinnie--they are almost guaranteed to lose him when his contract expires; some team will almost certainly consider him an upgrade at LT & be willing to pay him. So even if they gamble some 2014 picks to move up & draft their LT of the future, they'll need a RT of the future the year after. I expect the Ravens to pencil Oher in at LT & draft a RT in round 1, trading up a few slots if necessary, then look for a FS in round 2.

I think this is the best they can reasonably expect to do for next season--& it may not even be good enough to get back to the postseason.

[LukeDaniel]

Dickson would be nice to keep but he doesn't seem to do the job as a blocker & someone will pay too much for him.

All we'd need to do to keep Dickson is offer him a ROD tender and he will be back in 2013 for about $1.3 million. Nobody is giving up their 3rd round pick to sign Dickson. If they did, even better. The odds of Dickson being back are about 99%

[jonboy79]

I personally think the move is to...

Extend to a lower cap number:
Leach, Boldin and Jacoby
Cut
Birk/Williams
Non-Tender
Dickson/David Reed/Harewood
Tender RFA
Art Jones, Pitta
Allow to leave
Ray Lewis, Ed Reed, Kruger, Cary Williams
Re-sign UFA
Ellerbe, oops stopped early here... Big Mac and bviously Flacco

[jonboy79]

All we'd need to do to keep Dickson is offer him a ROD tender and he will be back in 2013 for about $1.3 million. Nobody is giving up their 3rd round pick to sign Dickson. If they did, even better. The odds of Dickson being back are about 99%

I still think $1.3m is a lot of money for Dickson, who isn't the best fit here.

[Jeremiah W]

Are you really ready to say this franchise is going to struggle to make the playoffs next year based on some potential salary cap problems? We are not nearly in as bad a shape as the Steelers were this time last year. It may take a lot of moves, but I fully expect Oz to produce a fully loaded roster capable of at least making the playoffs next year with a chance to defend the title.

I think Q gets an extention. Suggs has a huge cap number and even with all the injuries this year, I would not hesitate to extend him. There are always moves that can be made, and we should all trust Oz at this point to make the right ones.

Kruger will not be very easy to replace. He is exactly what we have needed ever since he was drafted, and I do not trust the draft to deliver another pass rusher. Even though Ellerbe plays more and is likely going to cost less, he may be the easier guy to find a replacement for.

[LukeDaniel]

I still think $1.3m is a lot of money for Dickson, who isn't the best fit here.

The Ravens' history of RFA tenders says that you couldn't be more wrong. If they gave a $1.9 million 2nd round tender to Ellerbe last offseason after an awful 2011, they are going to go give $1.3 million to Dickson. $1.3 million to a veteran in his prime, even if he is a backup, is still a monumental bargain. Tendering him only increases our salary cap about $750-800k. That's peanuts.

[The Excellector]

Release Jacoby Jones and continue to develop Deonte Thompson for that role
Extend Boldin, one more year, to lower his 2013 cap figure by a few million.
Resign Bryant McKinnie for $5 million or less. Otherwise, let him go.
Draft a LT either way.
Let Williams sign elsewhere.
Kruger WILL sign elsewhere.
Sign Reed for $4 or less. Otherwise, let him go to another team (Although it will be tough to see him leave).
Give Birk time, I think he will announce his retirement.
Resign Ellerbe, because ILB money is on the down right now.

[AirFlacco]

Birk said when the season started he came back for one more shot at the SB, so he might go out like Ray now - a Champ!

It's gonna be hard to keep Jacoby and Boldin under the cap. Jacoby is still signed. Boldin isn't.

Me thinks Bisciotti's comments at the stadium today went over everyone's heads when he said I wonder how many
times we can keep bringing you these trophies.

TRANSLATED: Once we pay Joe we gutt the entire team like we did in 01. It took us 11 years to get over that
and win another trophhy.

[The Excellector]

If it comes down to Boldin and Jones, the answer is Boldin.

I expect the league to prioritize who they want to keep.

At the top of that list is, undoubtedly, Joe Flacco. After that, it will either be Boldin or McKinnie. I think the team will concede Kruger, because they just won't be able to put in a high enough bid for him. Even if they were willing to.

[LukeDaniel]

It's gonna be hard to keep Jacoby and Boldin under the cap. Jacoby is still signed. Boldin isn't.

.

Incorrect.

I'm really not sure why this is so hard for so many to grasp. We've only gone over this like 659 times on this message board. Both are under contract. Jacoby Jones is due a $1 million roster bonus in the next few weeks + a base salary of $3 million. He also carries $900k in dead money if we cut him. Boldin is under contract for $7.53 million. That is a $6 million salary with $1.53 dead money if we cut him.

Also, there is absolutely nothing certain at all that we can't keep both players. In reality, we can indeed keep both players at their current salaries without going over the cap. However, it would basically eliminate the chance of bringing back Kruger or Ellerbe or any other UFA. A more likely scenario is that you tack on a year to each's contract, convert some of their 2013 base salary into a bonus, and still walk away with room to attack other areas of the roster.

[srobert96]

Cut Leach. Need to move towards more of an h-back. With Joe getting a monster contract going offense is going to be QB driven. Joe clearly does better when not in the I. Would rather see someone like walker from SF who can be TE and FB.

Ravens have little leverage with Q. Before the playoff run they could have extended him. Now he is probably not considered to be that over paid. He would probably take being cut versus an extension that reduces his pay this year.

With Jones the Ravens need to see where Thompson is in regards to possible replacement. Would like to see McKinnie brought back on two yer deal for about 3m per. Ellerbe needs to be resigned.

If they can sign Joe I would like to see them franchise Kruger and potentially trade him.

[LukeDaniel]

Ravens have little leverage with Q. Before the playoff run they could have extended him. Now he is probably not considered to be that over paid. He would probably take being cut versus an extension that reduces his pay this year.

I don't think this is correct at all. Boldin is due a $6 million salary this year. That's a lot of a money for a 33 year old WR. If the Ravens cut him, he isn't getting $6 million base salary anywhere else. He is likely going to get $9 million over 2 years with probably a $2 million signing bonus and a base salary of $3 million for year #1 of that contract.

There will be no Vincent Jackson like contract this upcoming year. Greg Jennings is 3 years younger than Boldin and he is projected to get about 4 years/$30 million in Free Agency this upcoming year, so to think Boldin would get the $6 million he's due in 2013 is a bit of a stretch.

Like I've been saying all along, offer Boldin an extension of $2.5 (probably $3.5 million due to his performance now) for 2014 with a $900k signing bonus. This would make his 2013 salary guaranteed. Then take $4.6 of his $6 million base salary for 2013 and convert it into a bonus. This would be a win/win for both teams.

The Ravens would be able to push $2.3 of Boldin's base salary for 2013 into 2014. His cap # now becomes $5.23 million instead of $7.53. His 2014 cap # would be around $5.8, which is high, but justifiable with the cap going up considerably.

For Boldin, it's a huge win. He gets $900k to pocket as part of his extension bonus and an additional $4.6 bonus as a reward for restructuring. That's $5.5 million he gets in his pocket before he even steps on a practice field for OTAs. When you reach age 33, your salary isn't nearly as important as the guaranteed money and bonus money that you can get up front, and Boldin would make out like a bandit here. There is no way he'd get a $5.5 bonus on the free agent market right now.

[LukeDaniel]

I'm probably a little bit off, but here is my best salary cap estimate as it stands right now.

Assuming we:

1) Cut Bobbie Williams
2) Cut Birk or let him retire
3) Re-sign Joe Flacco with a 2013 cap # around $9.5 (reasonable estimate)

That puts us at roughly $117.8 in terms of our cap #. When you factor in our rookie upgrades to the "Rule of 51", I think the best estimate is $118.5 to $119 million. The rookie salary upgrades should be minimal since we are drafting 32nd and 62nd. Barring any additional trading up for picks, only these two picks should be noticeable in altering our cap, and the impact should be minimal.

If we assume the Ravens cap will be around $122m, counting our carryover money from last year, that would leave us $3-3.5 million to spend on Free Agents. Obviously that's not much. However, it might be enough to cover the first year of a guy like Ellerbe.

Keep in mind that my projected $118.5-$119 assumes that every player currently under contract for 2013 except for Birk, B. Williams, and Lewis is back. This doesn't factor in any restructures or cuts to Leach, Jacoby, Boldin, or Jameel. Suggs and Koch are also good candidates for restructures. Oher might be a nice option for a re-sign/re-structure as well.

In theory, we could get Ellerbe back, let McKinnie/Kruger/Reed/C. Williams walk and keep the rest of our roster intact, while trying to upgrade through the draft everywhere else. If we can find a way of trimming $8-10 off the roster by restructures or maybe 1-2 cuts, we can have the room for Kruger, Ellerbe, and maybe Mckinnie or another veteran LT.

This will be the most challenging offseason of Ozzie's tenure, but things aren't as dire as they seem.

[NOLARavenFAN]

he said I wonder how many
times we can keep bringing you these trophies.

....and still keep a chip on your shoulder" was the exact quote.

[lobachevsky]

All we'd need to do to keep Dickson is offer him a ROD tender and he will be back in 2013 for about $1.3 million. Nobody is giving up their 3rd round pick to sign Dickson. If they did, even better. The odds of Dickson being back are about 99%

If this is the only (or the biggest) quibble you have with that post, I consider myself flattered.

Ed had a couple of nice catches in the Bowel & I wouldn't be surprised if some team thought his combination of speed & size was worth a 3rd--especially if this draft is as thin on offensive skill players as speculation has it.

[leachisabeast]

I think people are totally underestimating the team we have right now, we just won the freaking SB for christ sake, this is Ozzie we are talking about. Some cap issues aren't going to keep us from competing for another SB title. We will bring back two key UFAs (excluding Flacco who is just going to be signed anyway), and sign 1 or 2 unheralded FAs, the rest of the roster improvements will come from the draft, and with 11 picks and Ozzie drafting, I like our chances. We are just going to be going in with a slightly different team that is younger than usual. Ultimately, on paper it wont be the best team we've had in the Harbaugh era, but it will still be a play off calibre team that will still IMO be favorites to win the AFCN again.

This is NOTHING like 2001 or 2002, we actually have a franchise QB, and a good all around offense. We wont be having to clean house at all.

[BcRaven]

I'd like to resign Boldin and Jacoby Jones to more cap friendly contracts for 2013. Let's not be fooled by players like Doss or Deonte Thompson or Streeter replacing them at this point. Also would like to see Ray's and Birk's (I think he will retire) and Ed Reed's (retire or ugh release) contract$ go towards building the next generation of Ravens. I believe Kruger has played his last game in a Ravens uni, but perhaps Ozzie will attempt to resign Ellerbe. In any case, Upshaw, KO, Pierce, GG (our new starting Center), plus the 2013 draft, will keep this team solidified. Let's not forget Ozzie's knack for signing UDFAs either. I see the 2013 Ravens making the playoffs again, ho hum... Bc

[leachisabeast]

I'd like to resign Boldin and Jacoby Jones to more cap friendly contracts for 2013. Let's not be fooled by players like Doss or Deonte Thompson or Streeter replacing them at this point. Also would like to see Ray's and Birk's (I think he will retire) and Ed Reed's (retire or ugh release) contract$ go towards building the next generation of Ravens. I believe Kruger has played his last game in a Ravens uni, but perhaps Ozzie will attempt to resign Ellerbe. In any case, Upshaw, KO, Pierce, GG (our new starting Center), plus the 2013 draft, will keep this team solidified. Let's not forget Ozzie's knack for signing UDFAs either. I see the 2013 Ravens making the playoffs again, ho hum... Bc

Always enjoy your insight BC, good post.

[Jeremiah W]

I think people are totally underestimating the team we have right now, we just won the freaking SB for christ sake, this is Ozzie we are talking about. Some cap issues aren't going to keep us from competing for another SB title. We will bring back two key UFAs (excluding Flacco who is just going to be signed anyway), and sign 1 or 2 unheralded FAs, the rest of the roster improvements will come from the draft, and with 11 picks and Ozzie drafting, I like our chances. We are just going to be going in with a slightly different team that is younger than usual. Ultimately, on paper it wont be the best team we've had in the Harbaugh era, but it will still be a play off calibre team that will still IMO be favorites to win the AFCN again.

This is NOTHING like 2001 or 2002, we actually have a franchise QB, and a good all around offense. We wont be having to clean house at all.

Exactly.

Oz has put a contending roster out there every year since about 99. Some seasons the wheels fell off due to injury or sub par QB play catching up to eventually, but how many times has he he turned the roster over already?

Teams like NE, Indy and Pittsburgh have been able to be perennial contenders once they got the franchis QB in place. The Ravens were able to nearly the same level of consistant winning while waitng for Flacco to come along and acend to that top tier QB level.

In my opinion, this is the begining of a new raven dynasty, despite the influx of talent in the NFL at the QB position. This should now be a franchise that is able to attract the top assistant coaches, vet free agent fixes, and there is no reason to think the FO will start to slip in terms of drafting and development.