Ok, here it is....my official projected 2013 roster

[LukeDaniel]

Don't beat me up too much over this

I typically do this within 10 days of our season ending. This is the 4th year I've done this and typically I get about 38-40 of the 53 right and usually get 1-2 of the rookies right. This year is going to be brutal because we have so many uncertainties with free agents/cuts and also have 11 rookies.


*= starter

1) QB Joe Flacco*-6th year- Delaware
2) QB Tyrod Taylor-3- Virginia Tech
3) RB Ray Rice*- 6- Rutgers
4) RB Bernard Pierce- 2- Temple
5) RB Anthony Allen-3- Georgia Tech
6) TE Dennis Pitta*- 4- BYU
7) TE Ed Dickson- 4- Oregon
8) TE Michael Williams- R- Alabama (4th round pick)
9) WR Anquan Boldin*- 11- Florida State
10) WR Torrey Smith*- 3- Maryland
11) WR Jacoby Jones- 7- Lane
12) WR Tandon Doss- 3- Indiana
13) WR Deonte Thompson- 2- Florida
14) WR Tommy Streeter- 2- Miami
15) LT Bryant McKininie*- 12- Miami
16) LG Kelechi Osemele*- 2- Iowa St
17) C Gino Gradkowski*- 2- Delaware
18) RG Marshal Yanda*- 7- Iowa
19) RT Michael Oher*- 5- Ole Miss
20) G/T Jah Reid- 3- Central Florida
21)LT/RT Ricky Wagner- R- Wisconsin (3rd round pick)
22)G/C Joe Madsen- R- West Virginia (6th round supp pick)
23)G Chad Rinehart- 5- Northern Iowa (FA Buffalo)

24)S Morgan Cox- 4- East Tennessee St
25)K Justin Tucker- 2- Texas
26)P Sam Koch- 8- Nebraska

27) DT Haloti Ngata*- 8- Oregon
28) DT Terrence Cody*-4- Alabama
29) DT DeAngelo Tyson-2- Georgia
30) DT Bryan Hall- 3- Arkansas St
31) DT Larry Black Jr- R- Indiana (6th round pick)
32) DT/DE Arthur Jones*- 4- Syracuse
33) DE Pernell McPhee-3- Mississippi St
34) DE Joe Kruger- R- Utah (5th round supp pick)
35) OLB Terrell Suggs*- 11- Arizona St
36) OLB Courtney Upshaw*- 2- Alabama
37) MLB Dannell Ellerbe*- 5- Georgia
38) MLB Kevin Minter*- R- LSU (1st round pick)
39) OLB DeAndre Levy- 5- Wisconsin (FA Detroit)
40) OLB Michael McAdoo- 3- North Carolina
41) MLB Albert McClellan- 4- Franklin & Marshall
42) MLB Josh Bynes- 3- Auburn
43) LB Brendon Ayanbadejo- 15- UCLA
44) CB Lardarius Webb*- 5- Nicholls St
45) CB Jimmy Smith*- 3- Colorado
46) CB Corey Graham-7- New Hampshire
47) CB Chykie Brown- 3- Texas
48) CB Tyrann Matthieu- R- LSU (3rd round supp pick)
49) CB Asa Jackson- 2- Cal Poly
50) S Bernard Pollard*- 8- Purdue
51) S Baccari Rambo*- R- Georgia (2nd round pick)
52) S James Ighedibo- 7- UMass
53) S Christian Thompson- 2- South Carolina St


IR- Kenny Tate- OLB/S- Maryland (7th round Supp pick), G James Walker- R- Florida (7th round pick)

Last five guys off the roster- Omar Brown, LaQuan Williams, Bobby Rainey, Anthony Levine, Adrian Hamilton, Nigel Carr (all PS eligible) Emanuel Cook Some of those guys might be IRed

Cut- Bobbie Williams, Jameel McClain, Vonta Leach

Retired: Matt Birk

Non-tendered moving on to another team: David Reed, Ramon Harewood

Non-tendered, staying with Ravens on minimum contract: Emanuel Cook (cut anyways)

Re-signed: Ighedibo, Ellerbe, McKinnie

Significant FAs signing elsewhere: Ed Reed, Cary Williams, Paul Kruger

New FA signings: DeAndre Levy, OLB, Detroit (if Levy isn't acquired, my 2nd choice would be Erin Henderson) and Chad Rinehart, OG Buffalo


Ok...thoughts?

[RavenScallywag]

Where's PIERCE!?!?!?!

[rlh445]

I've only got one thought. I don't think Flacco's gonna be with us next year.

oh yea lol, nice catch....we lettin bernard go?

[LukeDaniel]

Just FYI, that puts my projected draft like this:

1- Kevin Minter- LB- LSU
2- Baccari Rambo- S- Georgia
3- Bobby Wagner (trade up)- LT/RT- Wisconsin (McKinnie's replacement by 2014 or 15)
3 sup- Tyrann Matthiew- CB- LSU
4- Michael Williams- TE- Alabama
5- traded to move up and draft Wagner
5th Supp- Joe Kruger, DE, Utah
6th- Larry Black Jr- DT- Indiana
6th supp- Joe Madsen-C-West Virginia
7th- James Walker- G- Florida
7th supp- Kenny Tate- OLB- Maryland

[LukeDaniel]

Where's PIERCE!?!?!?!

oh crap!

[LukeDaniel]

I've only got one thought. I don't think Flacco's gonna be with us next year.

oh yea lol, nice catch....we lettin bernard go?

he was on my written list, but didn't make it to my typed list...dammit...now I gotta cut one more player.

[RavenScallywag]

Just FYI, that puts my projected draft like this:

1- Kevin Minter- LB- LSU
2- Baccari Rambo- S- Georgia
3- Bobby Wagner (trade up)- LT/RT- Wisconsin (McKinnie's replacement by 2014 or 15)
3 sup- Tyrann Matthiew- CB- LSU
4- Michael Williams- TE- Alabama
5- traded to move up and draft Wagner
5th Supp- Joe Kruger, DE, Utah
6th- Larry Black Jr- DT- Indiana
6th supp- Joe Madsen-C-West Virginia
7th- James Walker- G- Florida
7th supp- Kenny Tate- OLB- Maryland

LOL, we lose one Kruger and get another. That'd be his younger bro, right?

[RavenScallywag]

he was on my written list, but didn't make it to my typed list...dammit...now I gotta cut one more player.

BA, Ihedigbo/Omar would be the spots I'd look at first. We've gone with 5 safeties before, but I think Asa Jackson could play S in a pinch? (Not sure why I think that). I'm torn who to cut though, Ihedigbo is a stalwart vet, and actually slowed down Ginn on the winning punt of the SB, but Omar Brown could be a real force, Ed Reed sung his praises REAL highly.

[RavenMadness]

he was on my written list, but didn't make it to my typed list...dammit...now I gotta cut one more player.

good thing you arent Ozzie.. lol

[LukeDaniel]

Ok, had to cut Omar Brown and move him to the practice squad. I was one player off and I figured I just mis-counted somewhere. I expect Pierce to be a Raven in 2013

[LukeDaniel]

BA, Ihedigbo/Omar would be the spots I'd look at first. We've gone with 5 safeties before, but I think Asa Jackson could play S in a pinch? (Not sure why I think that). I'm torn who to cut though, Ihedigbo is a stalwart vet, and actually slowed down Ginn on the winning punt of the SB, but Omar Brown could be a real force, Ed Reed sung his praises REAL highly.

I agree. The "good news" is that of those 53 players, one is bound to get hurt and open up a spot for Hamilton/Brown/Carr/LaQuan

[Paintballguy]

I'd really like to get both Minter and Rambo. That would be freaking sweet. Rambo is a ball hawking hard hitting safety that we need.

[RavenScallywag]

It'll be interesting to see what we do at WR...Hard to cut any of the current guys, but I've heard a few people thinking we'd draft another WR who would get a bit more separation.

Deonte may be a cut, he was inactive a WHOLE lot this year, seems like he might be in the doghouse?

As far as the draft, I see holes at FB (assuming Leach is cut, we need a back who can do it in goal line. Unless the TE you list is more an H-back?), WR, TE (good blocker, would go hand in hand with FB need), OT, NT/DT, ILB, S. I know we never go need, but if Reed and McKinnie don't return, LT and S become MUCH bigger priorities. I don't think we have a strong NT anywhere on the roster, so hopefully we can find Cody's eventual replacement there.

[bmorecareful]

What is this I don't even... this would be a major head-scratcher of an offseason. None of those FA moves make sense. Chad Rinehart is going to get a starter's contract somewhere that we can't afford (he's been excellent for the Bills over the last few years). The Ravens are not going to pay him to be a backup guard. DeAndre Levy is at least a borderline starter on a 4-3 team but he's a terrible fit for the 3-4, unless I'm way off base here there's no way the Ravens are interested in him.

Ricky Wagner is not worth trading up for in the 3rd; he's more like a 5th round pick at this point and he can't play LT in the NFL. Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd would be insanity, too... he'll be lucky to be drafted at all, much less on the 2nd day. Michael Williams in the 4th is a reach, I'm actually wondering if he gets drafted at all (he didn't even get a Combine invite so I wonder if the NFL is way lower on him than a lot of people in the draft community.)

I also think hoping for a 3rd round comp pick is way too optimistic. 3rd rounders are very, very rarely awarded. I think more like a 4th, two 5th's, and a 6th or 7th is more likely. All in all, while your effort to put this together is commendable and it's clearly well-reasoned, I would personally disagree with just about every personnel move the Ravens make in that projection.

[RavenScallywag]

What is this I don't even... this would be a major head-scratcher of an offseason. None of those FA moves make sense. Chad Rinehart is going to get a starter's contract somewhere that we can't afford (he's been excellent for the Bills over the last few years). The Ravens are not going to pay him to be a backup guard. DeAndre Levy is at least a borderline starter on a 4-3 team but he's a terrible fit for the 3-4, unless I'm way off base here there's no way the Ravens are interested in him.

Ricky Wagner is not worth trading up for in the 3rd; he's more like a 5th round pick at this point and he can't play LT in the NFL. Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd would be insanity, too... he'll be lucky to be drafted at all, much less on the 2nd day. Michael Williams in the 4th is a reach, I'm actually wondering if he gets drafted at all (he didn't even get a Combine invite so I wonder if the NFL is way lower on him than a lot of people in the draft community.)

I also think hoping for a 3rd round comp pick is way too optimistic. 3rd rounders are very, very rarely awarded. I think more like a 4th, two 5th's, and a 6th or 7th is more likely. All in all, while your effort to put this together is commendable and it's clearly well-reasoned, I would personally disagree with just about every personnel move the Ravens make in that projection.

Maybe, but we still have the combine to go...A good/bad combine can make/break some of these. If Matthieu has a great combine, he could work his way up the boards again. Te'o needs to have a great combine to re-establish his stock as well.

[Shas]

Nice effort. No way I can argue over the who stays and goes equation. I have no idea what the cap implications of your plan would be.

While you can't expect them to shop for certain position with their top picks, I'd have to say that in an ideal world I wouldn't be hoping for a two OTs, S, TE and CB with their picks in rounds 2-5 (I also am willing to bet they don't get a supplemental pick in the third round -- that's about the highest possible award and I don't see it being earned based on what they lost).

And again, not trying to nitpick because I like your thinking overall and I acknowledge you don't draft for need. That said, I think the number one need on this team is defensive line. Kemo was shaky at best and I agree he's not back. Cody is a possible bust -- so it really makes me queasy to pencil him in as a starter. McPhee is a question mark after an injury filled season. I actually think Haloti was serious when he said that he has to think about retiring before he's crippled for life. Basically that leaves Art Jones as the one guy I feel really good about.

I don't think you can be nearly as negative with any other of the units on this team. So while the need to "replace Ray" is clear, I don't see it as the priority. And already you are hearing the team bracing the fans for the idea that they like the offensive linemen they have. Laugh if you want, but I have still not given up on Ramone Harewood. I won't be surprised if they pass on offensive linemen completely in this draft and bring in another Bobbie Williams type to sit in reserve for a year.

If I'm painting an ideal scenario I might try to fill the ILB spot with Ellerbe and McClain and bring in another veteran to push McClain or start over him depending on who is out there. They really need some better talent on the interior of that line and I believe this draft has some depth in this area.

The one thing you also have to factor in that will change your projections is that they always bring in two or three under the radar type veterans (I've suggested some of the places they fit).

Guys like Jacoby Jones, Justin Bannan, Cory Ivy, Corey Graham, Jim Leonard, etc usually get brought in on the cheap as role players.

[LukeDaniel]

It'll be interesting to see what we do at WR...Hard to cut any of the current guys, but I've heard a few people thinking we'd draft another WR who would get a bit more separation.

Deonte may be a cut, he was inactive a WHOLE lot this year, seems like he might be in the doghouse?

As far as the draft, I see holes at FB (assuming Leach is cut, we need a back who can do it in goal line. Unless the TE you list is more an H-back?), WR, TE (good blocker, would go hand in hand with FB need), OT, NT/DT, ILB, S. I know we never go need, but if Reed and McKinnie don't return, LT and S become MUCH bigger priorities. I don't think we have a strong NT anywhere on the roster, so hopefully we can find Cody's eventual replacement there.

I don't think Deonte was in the doghouse at all. It was just a numbers game thing. Once Jacoby overtook him as our KO returner, he really didn't have a lot of value. He was deep on the depth chart at WR and didn't play special teams. David Reed and Doss had more value. I think the organization is high on him, so much so that we IRed Streeter in favor of him making the team.

Michael Williams is a blocking beast. He could easily play a bit of that H back role.

I don't think the Ravens look at a WR this year. The only WRs worth drafting are in the top 4 rounds, and I don't think the Ravens prioritize that position highly enough to take a WR with their first four picks. If they don't, then the guys they get in rounds 5-7 are going to be even bigger projects with lower upsides than Thompson and Streeter, so we'd be better off sticking with those two 2nd year players.

[leachisabeast]

Great stuff as usual Luke, and I would be more than happy with this roster next season. I would probably like an upgrade at NT or DE, but maybe Ngata can play NT next season.

[jonboy79]

Ricky Wagner is not worth trading up for in the 3rd; he's more like a 5th round pick at this point and he can't play LT in the NFL. Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd would be insanity, too... he'll be lucky to be drafted at all, much less on the 2nd day. Michael Williams in the 4th is a reach, I'm actually wondering if he gets drafted at all (he didn't even get a Combine invite so I wonder if the NFL is way lower on him than a lot of people in the draft community.)

I also think hoping for a 3rd round comp pick is way too optimistic. 3rd rounders are very, very rarely awarded. I think more like a 4th, two 5th's, and a 6th or 7th is more likely. All in all, while your effort to put this together is commendable and it's clearly well-reasoned, I would personally disagree with just about every personnel move the Ravens make in that projection.

Don't forget, we pick last in every round, so our 4th is basically a 5th, and so on. I don't see Williams with 4th comp pick being terrible value. In fact, i did a "mock" with him exactly there this morning.
Tyrann Mathieu will be drafted for sure. He was thought of by some as a better player then Morris Claiborne before the draft last year. He could certainly fall to day 3, but that's as far as he will fall. In my "mock" I had him with Williams as our two comp 4ths.

I'm pretty sure that AdamJT guy projected us to have 2 4ths, a 5th and a 6th. He's usually damn close. I can't remember if it was here or scout that I saw his predictions about a week ago.

[LukeDaniel]

What is this I don't even... this would be a major head-scratcher of an offseason. None of those FA moves make sense. Chad Rinehart is going to get a starter's contract somewhere that we can't afford (he's been excellent for the Bills over the last few years). The Ravens are not going to pay him to be a backup guard. DeAndre Levy is at least a borderline starter on a 4-3 team but he's a terrible fit for the 3-4, unless I'm way off base here there's no way the Ravens are interested in him.

Ricky Wagner is not worth trading up for in the 3rd; he's more like a 5th round pick at this point and he can't play LT in the NFL. Tyrann Mathieu in the 3rd would be insanity, too... he'll be lucky to be drafted at all, much less on the 2nd day. Michael Williams in the 4th is a reach, I'm actually wondering if he gets drafted at all (he didn't even get a Combine invite so I wonder if the NFL is way lower on him than a lot of people in the draft community.)

I also think hoping for a 3rd round comp pick is way too optimistic. 3rd rounders are very, very rarely awarded. I think more like a 4th, two 5th's, and a 6th or 7th is more likely. All in all, while your effort to put this together is commendable and it's clearly well-reasoned, I would personally disagree with just about every personnel move the Ravens make in that projection.

And I disagree with most everything contained in yours. I've not seen a single mock draft where Wagner was still on the board by the 4th round. Most of the people I've seen grading him say he has very surprising athleticism and can quite possibly play LT at a good level in the NFL. That's why we have to trade up to get him.

Likewise, every draft I've seen but one has Matthieu off the board by the end of round 4.


You talk about Rinehart being excellent, yet, he's only started 21 games in 4 years in Buffalo and only played two games last year due to injury. He might get very low-end starter money, which we can afford.

Levy is a perfect for the Ravens. He can play inside or outside. Sizzle and Upshaw are likely going to be 3 down players next year, so Levy wouldn't be seeing the field on running downs anyways. He's very good in pass coverage and could definitely have value covering TEs in that area. He's not a pass rusher, but he can fill in for any of our 4 starting LBs in pass coverage.

Lastly, Michael Williams would be the last pick in the 4th round excluding supplemental picks (that's somewhere in the 125 range, which is about right for him, perhaps a tad high) I actually graded him as a mid-5th rounder, but I think taking him in the 4th is a smart move rather than risking him going elsewhere. Williams fills multiple needs, so I definitely want him, even if we have to reach a round or 1/2 round to get him.