What are our chances of repeating as SB champs?

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 02-25-2013, 09:02 AM

Originally Posted by AirFlacco

Hell man, we lost all those guys last year, more than any other team and still won the SB. See extra comp picks thread
We're bound to lose more this year.

Still, like Billick said, a millions things have to go right just to get in the SB. We don't know who or how many injuries
we will have.

Well, the fact is that repeating with the exact same team is extremely hard.

We are losing some significant leadership and who knows how soon the draft picks will be ready to step in...if at all?

I'm not saying we are going into a tail spin and a 2-3 year rebuilding mode...I just think that this may be the year we miss the playoffs while we finish going through our transition.

**saintmatthew** · 02-25-2013, 11:24 AM

Originally Posted by Rxdoxx

In theory I like 1/32 = 3.125%
But my mind multiplies it by 2 3.125% X 2 = 6.25% because that is the chances of making the super bowl (2 teams do make it... then its 50%)

It is not just winning it, it is making it back there.... there are examples of teams that won/were there and didn't even make the playoffs the next year.
88 Cincy
90 Broncos
94 Bills
99 Falcons
01 Giants
02 Rams
03 Raiders
04 Panthers
05 Eagles
07 Bears
Thats 20 - 25% of the SuperBowlers not even making the playoffs.

We can add reasons.... every team brings its best A game against the champs..... parity scheduling..... player/brain trust raiding by others.....

Right now my long term hopes are to just make the playoffs and get one win.... then we enjoy the crap-shoot ride like we just came through (percentages? what were the percentages of Flacco's mile high punt to Jacoby?)
6% chance to even make it back there? I have no idea of what a lot of the cards we will even have in our deck to play with will be, other than it will total 53.... but 6% is the number crunch to return.

Dude, the '94 Bills were coming off their 4th straight Superbowl appearance.

**Ngata Da Vida** · 02-25-2013, 11:26 AM

Very uphill, but not impossible.

One scenario I could definitely see playing out would be what happened to the 96/97 Packers - win one year, make it and lose the next. I think the challenges from the NFC will be more formidable than the AFC.

**AirFlacco** · 02-25-2013, 11:44 PM

Originally Posted by saintmatthew

Dude, the '94 Bills were coming off their 4th straight Superbowl appearance.

And they never won.

**alienrace** · 02-25-2013, 11:57 PM

The 1 in 32 chance notion is just stupid. That's saying that all teams are equal, and we certainly know they are not.

**ballhawk** · 02-26-2013, 01:59 AM

Hard to say until we see what the roster is going to look like. As it stands now we potentially have holes at LT, DT, MLB, FS. I'm pretty worried about the defense. But with 11 picks in the draft and a savvy FO, I think Ozzie can make enough moves that we should contend for the division again. That's the first goal.

**Spider Webb** · 02-26-2013, 02:14 AM

Originally Posted by ballhawk

Hard to say until we see what the roster is going to look like. As it stands now we potentially have holes at LT, DT, MLB, FS. I'm pretty worried about the defense. But with 11 picks in the draft and a savvy FO, I think Ozzie can make enough moves that we should contend for the division again. That's the first goal.

Yep. If you win the division, you get a home playoff game. I want to see Flacco with two home playoff games next year.

**AirFlacco** · 02-26-2013, 10:39 AM

The teams are more equal than in the pre-cap 90s. That makes repeating very difficult. GB thought they were going
back with Aaron Rogers. That was a great team. Saints thought they were going back with Brees. That was a great
team.

The SB 35 Champs thought they were going back with Ray. That was a great team with one of the best defenses in
history but Jamal went down first week of camp.

A million things have to go right. Parity is what Pete Rozelle always wanted. In the 60s you had GB and Colts
dominating the league. GB was last team to win 3 world titles in a row back in the 60s. Colts were second NFL
team to go to Super bowl.

**NOLARavenFAN** · 02-26-2013, 10:53 AM

Lets make the playoffs first.

**Spider Webb** · 02-26-2013, 01:15 PM

Originally Posted by AirFlacco

The teams are more equal than in the pre-cap 90s. That makes repeating very difficult. GB thought they were going
back with Aaron Rogers. That was a great team. Saints thought they were going back with Brees. That was a great
team.

The SB 35 Champs thought they were going back with Ray. That was a great team with one of the best defenses in
history but Jamal went down first week of camp.

Yea but those teams weren't nearly as consistent as ours. Flacco lives in the playoffs. He's never not been to the divisional round of the playoffs...that's ridiculous. Why should next year be any different? Who will be a realstic challenge to us for the AFC crown? Pats? No we have their number. Steelers? They're currently third best team in the AFC North. Bengals? Dalton isn't beating us in the playoffs. Denver with Peyton? Yea I could see them getting revenge next year. Colts? Maybe but I still think they're a couple of years away from posing any threats. Texans are a toss up but they could beat us too. So there's two maybe three teams standing in our way of going back to the SB? I like our chances.

**AirFlacco** · 02-26-2013, 01:35 PM

Because next year JOe, Lord forbid, might get hurt or Rice or someone else like when Jamal went down in 01. That killed Ravens chances for a repeat after Ozzie rolled the dice. He lost and then gutted the team. We're gonna have to get by NE again and Pissburgh always gives us a hard time even with a 3rd string QB.

Another thing is Ravens might be complacent like they were in 01. Shannan Sharpe said we still should have gone to SB 36 even with Jamal out but the team lost
it's swagger. There were some early losses that just shouldn't have been. That team lost it's hunger. Then it was gutted. We'll have to wait to see how hungry
Ravens are. Suggs recently said they got going after Ray announced his retirement. They wanted to send Ray out a champ. So what would have happened if Ray didn't retire? We would have been one and done?

Like I said, there's a million things.

**Spider Webb** · 02-26-2013, 01:48 PM

Well if any team loses their starting QB they're done so lets predict next seasons success under the assumption that Flacco will be healthy. And please our 2001 team is a joke compared to this squad. Other than Ray who was God like during those times, our team is significantly better.

And I understand what Suggs said, but come on you think Flacco, Boldin, Rice, Suggs, and Webb won't bring the swaggers. And if we resign Reed I'm not worried about our swagger. If Reed comes back he'll have this team ready come playoff times.

I really want us to resign Kruger too because I think he still has something to prove. Hopefully he realizes that Baltimore is his best fit.