Strategy for first round pick.

**Shas** · 02-24-2013, 09:10 AM

The last time the Ravens had the last pick of the first round they stayed put and took Todd Heap. (Trivia question, who was picked next, first pick of the second round in 2001?)

But if you look at recent history, Ozzie has traded his first round pick in five out of the last seven drafts. So if you're going off of trends, it would be more likely than not that he makes a trade.

With eleven picks in the bank, perhaps there is a player of value who falls into the twenties and he moves up.

However, my gut says trading back is more likely, as he's done in two of the last three years when picking late in the first round (Sent 25 to Denver in 2010, sent 29 to Vikings in 2012).

The primary position of need for the team, interior defensive line, is also the position loaded with the most talent for the first couple rounds. That's the recipe for trading back. I have to think there will be a team who doesn't get their quarterback in the first round, but who will want to jump ahead of the Chiefs, assuming the Chiefs don't take their QB with the first overall pick. Or, if rumors are true that the Patriots are hellbent to draft Tavon Austin, I can see Ozzie doing a deal with Belichick.

You can argue that Ozzie doesn't need more picks considering he already has 11, but I would expect him to also package picks to trade up and grab four players during the second and third rounds. Perhaps four players who play between the hashes (DT, OT, ILB, S).

What say you?

**alien bird** · 02-24-2013, 09:21 AM

Originally Posted by Shas

The last time the Ravens had the last pick of the first round they stayed put and took Todd Heap. (Trivia question, who was picked next, first pick of the second round in 2001?)

Oh, my.

I had to look it up, but things certainly would have been different.

**mistergq** · 02-24-2013, 09:21 AM

There has also been times when Ozzie traded picks for a current existing player on another team, so that is another alternative as well.

I don't see Ozzie moving beyond 20s, but if he does not trade up, I have a feeling he stays at 32. I also could see him trading back to 33-40, but significant beyond that.

**camdenyard** · 02-24-2013, 09:24 AM

He's married to his Board, that much we know. We also know that he has said DL and the middle of the defense will be a focus. We must get better there.

**alien bird** · 02-24-2013, 09:26 AM

Originally Posted by Shas

You can argue that Ozzie doesn't need more picks considering he already has 11, but I would expect him to also package picks to trade up and grab four players during the second and third rounds. Perhaps four players who play between the hashes (DT, OT, ILB, S).

What say you?

I think that's a likely scenario. This draft is pretty solid between rounds 2-4 in the Ravens' areas of need.

**Carey** · 02-24-2013, 09:36 AM

I think one of the best qualities of Oz and Co. is they dont often fall in love with players. I think the chances of trading down are at least equal with the chances they stay at 32 because teams ahead will reach for players. If there's a few options at 32 i'd love to trade down and stock pile picks to use to move up and down the board. I think rounds 2 to 4 will be the drafts sweet spot for a lot of the Ravens needs.

**Florida Art** · 02-24-2013, 09:45 AM

Until we know what's happening with Flacco we can't have a first round strategy

**GOTA** · 02-24-2013, 09:47 AM

The 1st pick in the 2nd round of 2001 is a very famous pick. Most thought he was a lock for the 1st round but slipped because of his height. You might of heard of this guy.......

Drew Brees!

**alien bird** · 02-24-2013, 10:04 AM

Originally Posted by Florida Art

Until we know what's happening with Flacco we can't have a first round strategy

I'm sure the Ravens' front office is drafting a number of scenarios right now. It isn't like they are just sitting around doing nothing until Flacco signs.

**Shas** · 02-24-2013, 10:23 AM

Originally Posted by GOTA

The 1st pick in the 2nd round of 2001 is a very famous pick. Most thought he was a lock for the 1st round but slipped because of his height. You might of heard of this guy.......

Drew Brees!

You win the prize. But you have to come to the server room to pick it up.

The other knock on Brees was that he ran a gimmick offense at Purdue. Joe Tiller was one of the first college coaches to run an exclusive shot-gun spread attack, which was thought at the time to be a poor proving ground for the NFL when QBs stayed under center. Funny to think how the NFL game came around to run the shotgun so much more prevalently

The NFL goes through these phases of thinking only one type of NFL QB can flourish until guys come around and prove them wrong.

Flacco ran the same type of spread system Delaware but the knock on him wasn't the system or his height, it was his small-school pedigree. But I think guys like Roethlisberger, Flacco and Romo have put that idea to rest.

And now we've seen it again with the read option now being accepted in the NFL thanks to Kaepernick, RGIII and Wilson.

**Shas** · 02-24-2013, 10:31 AM

Originally Posted by alien bird

I'm sure the Ravens' front office is drafting a number of scenarios right now. It isn't like they are just sitting around doing nothing until Flacco signs.

The other thing is, I'm not sure how much Flacco changes the way they draft.

We know that they will need to think about the safety position, for instance, whether Reed is gone this year or in a couple years, with Pollard and Ihedigbo up there in years and only the untested Christian Thompson in reserve. We know they could use a swing G/T or one of each with McKinney gone this year or soon thereafter and Oher's contract status uncertain and Birk retired with an untested Gradkowsi behind him, and with the fact they lost Boren and have pretty iffy options on the bench.

Even if Boldin is cut, I don't see them making WR a priorty. Your talking about another late round project to push the backups they already have. Doss would be given a chance to replace Boldin, if needed, before they are forced to go with a high round pick.

And DT and OLB is a need no matter what even if they lose Ellerbe. At OLB they will probably lose Kruger but I don't see it as a priortity in the draft with Suggs and Upshaw starting and decent specialists/projects behind them -- McClellan, McAdoo and Hamilton.

**jonboy79** · 02-24-2013, 10:33 AM

I'd rather trade up then down, but I suppose 2 picks in each the 2nd and third rounds could be a consolation prize, as that's the meat and value of the draft.
I'll be disappointed if we trade back with any of the following on the board.
Tavon Austin
Manti Te'o
Kevin Minter
and potentially even Jesse Williams, though he might be available still after a small trade back, and Brandon Williams is hopefully there for our 2nd, which would be a decent fallback.
I also will be upset if we come out of this draft wihtout one of:
Chris Faulk, David Quessenberry, Menelik Watson, David Bakhtiari

**arnie_uk** · 02-24-2013, 10:34 AM

Draft Arthur brown.

**kronusthebonus** · 02-24-2013, 10:35 AM

With such a deep draft for lineman, both offensive and defensive, I can see Ozzie trading back into the 2nd and acquiring more picks. Since we'll have a ton of comp picks, I can see him using our regular picks as ammunition to move up or down in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th rounds to find "their" kind of guys to fill holes in the roster. Lets face it, 2012 was absolute monster of a draft for Eric and Ozzie. I unless they whiff totally in 2013, I can it being a very good draft.

**Dark&Stormy** · 02-24-2013, 10:53 AM

I agree with the possibility, even likelihood, that someone will want to trade with the Ravens to try to jump in front of KC's 1st pick in 2nd round. Or do so to pick up a QB sitting out there still at that point. More picks in middle rounds is where the FO makes its hay.
BTW- concerning Te'o- do you really think Ozzie will be that interested in him- early on, anyway- given how poorly he played against his alma mater?

**Ravenswintitle** · 02-24-2013, 10:54 AM

If they're not in love with a player that's there at 32, or that they think will be there, I can see them trading back. As you stated, it's become common. They obviously don't need more picks this year but getting picks for future years is always a good thing.

**Shas** · 02-24-2013, 11:33 AM

Originally Posted by Dark&Stormy

BTW- concerning Te'o- do you really think Ozzie will be that interested in him- early on, anyway- given how poorly he played against his alma mater?

I don't know what to make of Te'o. He clearly stunk in the championship game, so I am not enthusiastic about him. I didn't see enough of him to know if he was overhyped as a Notre Dame guy or if he was thrown off his game one time because of the scandal. If I am guessing I will say someone else take him earlier but Ozzie passes if he's still there. Look at the success they've had with undrafted inside linebackers -- McCain, Ellerbe, Bynes, Scott, McClellan. I think they have needs that could use a first rounder more than ILB. Of course, to contradict my earlier statement, if they can't sign Ellerbe then it might change things.

**Lee Van Cleef** · 02-24-2013, 11:38 AM

Originally Posted by mistergq

There has also been times when Ozzie traded picks for a current existing player on another team, so that is another alternative as well.

I don't see Ozzie moving beyond 20s, but if he does not trade up, I have a feeling he stays at 32. I also could see him trading back to 33-40, but significant beyond that.

So he could trade up. Or he could stay put. Or he could trade down...

**Shas** · 02-24-2013, 11:41 AM

Originally Posted by Ravenswintitle

...don't need more picks this year but getting picks for future years is always a good thing.

That's intriguing. They've certainly done well in the past with that strategy, getting Ray Lewis and Jamal Lewis when they pocketed a future first round pick.

And when they did the opposite, trading a future first rounder, it killed them (Acquired Kyle Boller and New England used their pick the next draft to take Vince Wilfork, leaving the Ravens to take Dwan Edwards with their top pick that year).

Belichick loves that strategy. Two years ago he gave New Orleans his 28th overall pick (so New Orleans could draft Mark Ingram) and in exchange got a late second rounder in 2011 and a first rounder in 2012, which Belichick then parlayed into the Chandler Jones pick).

So the precedent is there for the Ravens to swing the same sort of deal and end up with two picks in the second round and a spare first rounder next year.

**GOTA** · 02-24-2013, 11:46 AM

Originally Posted by Shas

You win the prize. But you have to come to the server room to pick it up.

The other knock on Brees was that he ran a gimmick offense at Purdue. Joe Tiller was one of the first college coaches to run an exclusive shot-gun spread attack, which was thought at the time to be a poor proving ground for the NFL when QBs stayed under center. Funny to think how the NFL game came around to run the shotgun so much more prevalently

The NFL goes through these phases of thinking only one type of NFL QB can flourish until guys come around and prove them wrong.

Flacco ran the same type of spread system Delaware but the knock on him wasn't the system or his height, it was his small-school pedigree. But I think guys like Roethlisberger, Flacco and Romo have put that idea to rest.

And now we've seen it again with the read option now being accepted in the NFL thanks to Kaepernick, RGIII and Wilson.

There was so much talk that year about not resigning Dilfer and getting Grbac. I don't remember anyone looking to draft a QB. Chis Redman was the developmental QB. The thought was so focused on getting a player that could help the offense enough to repeat If they had picked Brees the fans would have thought that Ozzie had lost it. There was a lot of excitement for Heap plus Jamal plus a healthy Travis Taylor. Funny how things worked out.