Strategy for first round pick.

[Shas]

If they had picked Brees the fans would have thought that Ozzie had lost it. There was a lot of excitement for Heap plus Jamal plus a healthy Travis Taylor. Funny how things worked out.

Clearly it was Billick's fault.

[JohnBKistler]

I didn't see enough of him to know if he was overhyped as a Notre Dame guy or if he was thrown off his game one time because of the scandal.

Is there any other kind?

[Shas]

Is there any other kind?

I hate to rub it in, but it's true. Here are the golden domers in the NFL , most recent first...

Ethan Johnson
Darius Fleming
Brian Smith
Trevor Robinson
Jonas Gray
Robert Blanton
Harrison Smith
Michael Floyd
Darrin Walls
Terrail Lambert
Ian Williams
Chris Stewart
Armando Allen
Robert Hughes
Kyle Rudolph
Eric Olsen
Sam Young
Jimmy Clausen
Sergio Brown
Kyle McCarthy
Golden Tate
David Bruton
John Sullivan
Trevor Laws
J. J. Jansen
Tom Zbikowski
John Carlson
Victor Abiamiri
Derek Landri
Ryan Harris
Brady Quinn
Chinedum Ndukwe
Mark LeVoir
Anthony Fasano
Maurice Stovall
Justin Tuck
Ryan Grant
Jeff Faine
Jordan Black
Arnaz Battle

Who jumps off this list as great NFL players?

[Tolucaraven]

I doubt they select 11 players this year. I think they have so many options to do either trade up or back depending on thier targets. I would even suggest they trade a few of thier picks this year for a few picks next season. (you get more value this way). Plus if they do trade this years picks for next years pick they can trade those picks for actual players before the later trade deadline in areas of need=teams always looking to dump players for picks once thier season is going south.) So many options.

[JoeCool5]

I want nothing to do with Teo. He is another typically overhyped Notre Dame prospect coming into the NFL. As for our strategy, I really hope we are able to stay at 32 and get an immediate impact player, i.e. Tavon, Minter, Corradelle Patterson, etc. If not, trade back and stay true to the board. We should go into the draft with approximately 11 selections, which is enough to move around with.

[jonboy79]

I hate to rub it in, but it's true. Here are the golden domers in the NFL , most recent first...


Who jumps off this list as great NFL players?

Tuck, Rudolph, Harrison Smith.

[JohnBKistler]

I hate to rub it in, but it's true. Here are the golden domers in the NFL , most recent first...

Who jumps off this list as great NFL players?

Justin Tuck, maybe. I was going to do a comparision with Alabama, but that really wouldn't be fair, because Alabama basically runs a professional program. So I went with a middling SEC school: Ole Miss.

Charlie Anderson, LB, Miami Dolphins
Stacy Andrews, OL, Seattle Seahawks
Taye Biddle, WR, Sacramento Mountain Lions (UFL)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Hall, RB, Denver Broncos
Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina Panthers
John Jerry, OL, Miami Dolphins
Peria Jerry, DL, Atlanta Falcons
Kendrick Lewis, S, Kansas City Chiefs
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
Bobby Massie, OL, Arizona Cardinals
Dexter McCluster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Jayme Mitchell, DL, Minnesota Vikings
Michael Oher, OL, Baltimore Ravens
Jerrell Powe, DL, Kansas City Chiefs
Tutan Reyes, OL, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jamarca Sanford, DB, Minnesota Vikings
Chris Spencer, C, Chicago Bears
Micheal Spurlock, WR, San Diego Chargers
Tre' Stallings, OL, Kansas City Chiefs
Keydrick Vincent, OL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots

Quite of few of them jump off that list at me....

[s.r.genovese]

I doubt they select 11 players this year. I think they have so many options to do either trade up or back depending on thier targets. I would even suggest they trade a few of thier picks this year for a few picks next season. (you get more value this way). Plus if they do trade this years picks for next years pick they can trade those picks for actual players before the later trade deadline in areas of need=teams always looking to dump players for picks once thier season is going south.) So many options.

I'm guessing they won't pick 11 players; you rarely see draft classes that big for a reason. There just aren't enough roster spots to fit in 11 new rookies. Many would end up getting cut just due to numbers and it's not like our roster is so poor that we have lots of holes to fill.

I'm guessing Ozzie will parlay picks for next year or use them as ammunition to target their guys.

[s.r.genovese]

Justin Tuck, maybe. I was going to do a comparision with Alabama, but that really wouldn't be fair, because Alabama basically runs a professional program. So I went with a middling SEC school: Ole Miss.

Charlie Anderson, LB, Miami Dolphins
Stacy Andrews, OL, Seattle Seahawks
Taye Biddle, WR, Sacramento Mountain Lions (UFL)
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Bruce Hall, RB, Denver Broncos
Greg Hardy, DE, Carolina Panthers
John Jerry, OL, Miami Dolphins
Peria Jerry, DL, Atlanta Falcons
Kendrick Lewis, S, Kansas City Chiefs
Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants
Bobby Massie, OL, Arizona Cardinals
Dexter McCluster, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
Jayme Mitchell, DL, Minnesota Vikings
Michael Oher, OL, Baltimore Ravens
Jerrell Powe, DL, Kansas City Chiefs
Tutan Reyes, OL, Jacksonville Jaguars
Jamarca Sanford, DB, Minnesota Vikings
Chris Spencer, C, Chicago Bears
Micheal Spurlock, WR, San Diego Chargers
Tre' Stallings, OL, Kansas City Chiefs
Keydrick Vincent, OL, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mike Wallace, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Patrick Willis, LB, San Francisco 49ers
Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots

Quite of few of them jump off that list at me....

Hell Maryland has put better pros into the NFL than Notre Dame lately.

[JohnBKistler]

Tuck, Rudolph, Harrison Smith.

2 rookies? "Great NFL players"? Little bit of a leap there, imo...

[jonboy79]

2 rookies? "Great NFL players"? Little bit of a leap there, imo...

its slim pickings, i did what i could...

[Shas]

...Harrison Smith.

2 rookies? ...

Are we counting him as two people to help their case?

[bmorecareful]

Preface any thoughts on this topic by understanding the FO's approach to the draft in years past and how it differs from this year.

Ozzie has very, very rarely gone into the draft with gaping holes on the roster. Although we've been tight up against the cap for many years, he's found veteran "glue guys" and emerging draft picks from prior years to round out the roster everywhere. Very rarely did we have major flux at multiple positions; the closest I can remember us coming is 2011 when the CB depth chart was very concerning and we took Jimmy Smith.

But even then, even if CB was a huge need Ozzie was able to employ his preferred draft strategy: snag a highly talented prospect who falls way below where his talent level should place him. Often that prospect has not been at a position of need, but in 2011 it just so happened to be.

This year is very different. The team has massive, gaping holes at no less than 4 positions (LT, FS, ILB, and DT). If Flacco isn't signed to a long-term deal by March 4th and the tag must be used, the team WILL NOT be able to get the glue guys in free agency to fill in some of those gaps, and in fact they may need to cut players at certain positions and create or deepen more holes in the roster, like at WR.

So, taking into consideration how different this year is from prior years, what does that mean for the draft strategy? To me, it suggests that they won't be able to sit around and wait for a prospect to fall to them. They NEED to add highly talented players that present the possibility of starting in year 1. If they can't sign anybody in free agency, they will have no choice but to go out looking for starters.

To me that means trading up. If a guy you feel is a day-1 starter at a position of need is around in the 20's, there may be no choice but to trade up, because you don't have a starting FS, LT, or ILB on the roster. You just have to fill those needs and you may need to trade up more than once. That's not Ozzie's style but this isn't Ozzie's year either. We'll be able to have a better conversation on this topic once we know whether or not Flacco will be tagged, but at this point that's where I'm leaning.

[bmorecareful]

Just to clarify something from the tone of my post above... I'm not suggesting Ozzie is going to panic and give up his whole draft or high future picks to gamble on a couple of players. He's not going to trade way up in the 1st for Eric Fisher and then trade a future 1st to get into the high 2nd for Matt Elam. As neat as it would be to have those 2 guys, you just threw away the chance at adding a ton of talent just to gamble on 2 guys who might not pan out at all.

Ozzie's not going to do that, he's going to stay true to his strategy and take the best available players, but there may be an adjustment of sorts to that where he'll be more willing to walk out of this draft with 8 instead of 11 players, as a result of trading up a few spots in a few rounds. We KNOW Ozzie won't panic, he never does, but this year may just be slightly different from others in intent if not in fact.

[Shas]

This sounds dangerously close to a "drafting for need" strategy, and it's hard for me to imagine Ozzie going this route. Where I think I differ from you is the premise the suggestion there are gaping needs this year that didn't exist in past years. I think you may be under stating the holes in past year.

Last year they lost two key free agents in Ben Grubbs and Jarrett Johnson. The hole at LG last year I would argue was more glaring than ILB or DT this year. Yet Ozzie didn't trade up, he traded down in the first round and still found Upshaw to replace JJ and Osemele to replace Grubbs. He then traded up to get Pierce to replace Ricky Williams. Ozzie was patient and position himself in need positions to fill holes.

I could point out past drafts where they had significant holes they would have to fill, and did so without trading up. Two years ago it was wide receiver (Torrey Smith for Derrick Mason). And other recent examples include tight end (Dickson and Pitta for Todd Heap), running back (Ray Rice for Willis McGahee) or corner (Lardarius Webb for Chris McAlister). I can't see why this year needs to be different in being patient and finding quality players in the second and third rounds.

[Carey]

Preface any thoughts on this topic by understanding the FO's approach to the draft in years past and how it differs from this year.

Ozzie has very, very rarely gone into the draft with gaping holes on the roster. Although we've been tight up against the cap for many years, he's found veteran "glue guys" and emerging draft picks from prior years to round out the roster everywhere. Very rarely did we have major flux at multiple positions; the closest I can remember us coming is 2011 when the CB depth chart was very concerning and we took Jimmy Smith.

But even then, even if CB was a huge need Ozzie was able to employ his preferred draft strategy: snag a highly talented prospect who falls way below where his talent level should place him. Often that prospect has not been at a position of need, but in 2011 it just so happened to be.

This year is very different. The team has massive, gaping holes at no less than 4 positions (LT, FS, ILB, and DT). If Flacco isn't signed to a long-term deal by March 4th and the tag must be used, the team WILL NOT be able to get the glue guys in free agency to fill in some of those gaps, and in fact they may need to cut players at certain positions and create or deepen more holes in the roster, like at WR.

So, taking into consideration how different this year is from prior years, what does that mean for the draft strategy? To me, it suggests that they won't be able to sit around and wait for a prospect to fall to them. They NEED to add highly talented players that present the possibility of starting in year 1. If they can't sign anybody in free agency, they will have no choice but to go out looking for starters.

To me that means trading up. If a guy you feel is a day-1 starter at a position of need is around in the 20's, there may be no choice but to trade up, because you don't have a starting FS, LT, or ILB on the roster. You just have to fill those needs and you may need to trade up more than once. That's not Ozzie's style but this isn't Ozzie's year either. We'll be able to have a better conversation on this topic once we know whether or not Flacco will be tagged, but at this point that's where I'm leaning.

I think these factors might push the needle a little further in that direction but the fact that they just won the super bowl with so many positions on defense needing to be upgraded i think they still wont operate too much differently in the draft. I also dont see too much difference in a defensive player that will go at 20 compared to say 35. I feel like Oz and co gets it, they know we desperately need an infusion of talent on the defensive side but i dont feel like it will alter strategy. I think, and hope, the urgency and aggressiveness will go towards the Flacco negotiations more so then draft strategy.

[jonboy79]

This sounds dangerously close to a "drafting for need" strategy, and it's hard for me to imagine Ozzie going this route. Where I think I differ from you is the premise the suggestion there are gaping needs this year that didn't exist in past years. I think you may be under stating the holes in past year.

Last year they lost two key free agents in Ben Grubbs and Jarrett Johnson. The hole at LG last year I would argue was more glaring than ILB or DT this year. Yet Ozzie didn't trade up, he traded down in the first round and still found Upshaw to replace JJ and Osemele to replace Grubbs. He then traded up to get Pierce to replace Ricky Williams. Ozzie was patient and position himself in need positions to fill holes.

I could point out past drafts where they had significant holes they would have to fill, and did so without trading up. Two years ago it was wide receiver (Torrey Smith for Derrick Mason). And other recent examples include tight end (Dickson and Pitta for Todd Heap), running back (Ray Rice for Willis McGahee) or corner (Lardarius Webb for Chris McAlister). I can't see why this year needs to be different in being patient and finding quality players in the second and third rounds.

like it or not, "drafting for need" is what every single team in the NFL does every April, Ravens included. The NUANCE is the difference. It's dumb to be locked into taking your biggest need in the first round, your second biggest need in the second, etc. The key is VALUE. Trading up to get the guy you like that fills the hole you have at an acceptable value point is a quite good philosophy, particularly when you have 11 picks.

Fact of the matter is, I'd rather they move up and target their guys then stay put and deal with what is left...

[leachisabeast]

The cap situation is pretty much the same as it was last year, people are just worried about the Ravens using the exclusive tag, which I highly doubt they use. I just don't see them counting 24 million to the cap, and I'm not even sure if that's possible without cutting so many good players as well as not re-signing anybody. You'd have a team of rookies and undrafted players/special team aces. I don't care how good the QB is, you are not winning with a team like that.

I'm still pretty sure a deal gets done this week and the holes will be filled in FA. I expect McKinnie and Ellerbe back, Reed is 50/50, Kruger probably has a 10 % chance of being back, while Cary a 0.00001 % chance. So I think we go into FA signing for argument sakes the following....

Pat Simms, NT, Bengals
Kenny Phillips, FS, Giants
Erin Henderson ILB, Vikings

The following players are either retiring or will be cut:
Matt Birk
Ray Lewis
Brenden Ayanbedajo
Vonta Leach
Jameel McClain

That fills the immediate holes on paper, and will allow Ozzie to go for the BPA approach. These are the kind of FAs that Ozzie goes for. Solid under the radar type players who can make a difference, but wont be expensive at all.

I would expect the Ravens to probably trade back into the 2nd and take an OT like Menelik Watson given the above scenario.

[bmorecareful]

This sounds dangerously close to a "drafting for need" strategy, and it's hard for me to imagine Ozzie going this route. Where I think I differ from you is the premise the suggestion there are gaping needs this year that didn't exist in past years. I think you may be under stating the holes in past year.

Last year they lost two key free agents in Ben Grubbs and Jarrett Johnson. The hole at LG last year I would argue was more glaring than ILB or DT this year. Yet Ozzie didn't trade up, he traded down in the first round and still found Upshaw to replace JJ and Osemele to replace Grubbs. He then traded up to get Pierce to replace Ricky Williams. Ozzie was patient and position himself in need positions to fill holes.

I could point out past drafts where they had significant holes they would have to fill, and did so without trading up. Two years ago it was wide receiver (Torrey Smith for Derrick Mason). And other recent examples include tight end (Dickson and Pitta for Todd Heap), running back (Ray Rice for Willis McGahee) or corner (Lardarius Webb for Chris McAlister). I can't see why this year needs to be different in being patient and finding quality players in the second and third rounds.

Am I? I don't think so. Most of the examples you cite are very different from the situation we're seeing this year. They lost Ben Grubbs, but signed B. Williams as a "glue guy" who would start if necessary--and he had played very well in Cincinnati the year before prior to breaking his ankle. They had a contingency plan. In retrospect we can say that it didn't work, but at least they could plaster over the hole in the roster--and the same is true for so many other moves they've made over the last few years. They went into the draft without glaring needs anywhere, and even if their draftees stepped up to become starters it was because they proved better than the contingency plans that had already been made.

The same is true for JJ. We drafted Upshaw, but without Suggs' injury how much does he see the field last year? Kruger was ahead of him on the DC as the likely starter at SAM LB. That wasn't a pick to fill an immediate need, it was another "how could a guy like this fall" pick.

Torrey Smith was drafted as a future starter at WR, not an immediate starter, when we had Boldin and Lee Evans (another shrewd "glue guy" pickup that didn't happen to work out). Dickson and Pitta both sat behind Heap for a year and were groomed instead of being asked to start as rookies. Webb played behind Foxworth and Fabian Washington, both highly regarded FA pickups.

The problem is that we can't do anything in free agency this year. We can't sign B. Williams as a contingency plan for the OL, or trade for Lee Evans, or give draftees a year to sit while they're groomed behind established veterans. Ray Lewis is gone; Ed Reed is likely gone; we probably can't re-sign McKinnie or Ellerbe. You're talking about roster holes that we have very little flexibility.

[leachisabeast]

The problem is that we can't do anything in free agency this year. We can't sign B. Williams as a contingency plan for the OL, or trade for Lee Evans, or give draftees a year to sit while they're groomed behind established veterans. Ray Lewis is gone; Ed Reed is likely gone; we probably can't re-sign McKinnie or Ellerbe. You're talking about roster holes that we have very little flexibility.

Again, I think you are exaggerating the cap situation. The only way this happens is if we use the exclusive tender on Flacco. Can't see that happening.