Strategy for first round pick.

[callahan09]

Smith is over-rated. He is the very definition of game manager. Any team that needs their QB to put up a lot of points is not a good fit for Smith and he will be exposed. He has only thrown 3000 yards once in his career. He has never thrown 20 touchdowns. He hasn't thrown 40 passes in a game in over 2 years. He has never been a good quarterback, he has merely been put in a position under Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh to not fail. The right plays are called at the right time for him, with easy completions that are open for lots of yards after the catch. You could install just about anybody into the 49ers system and get the same kind of performance as you did out of Alex Smith. The coaches saw that, they knew Smith wasn't a spectacular QB, despite having one of the highest QB ratings. His rating was a symptom of the system and play calling, not a showing of his superior talents and decision making. That's why it was an easy decision to bench him. You put him somewhere where the completions don't come as easy (as they don't for Joe Flacco, for instance), and where he has to do more to get the win because he doesn't have one of the NFL's best defenses, and he will fall hard.

[Paintballguy]

Smith is over-rated. He is the very definition of game manager. Any team that needs their QB to put up a lot of points is not a good fit for Smith and he will be exposed. He has only thrown 3000 yards once in his career. He has never thrown 20 touchdowns. He hasn't thrown 40 passes in a game in over 2 years. He has never been a good quarterback, he has merely been put in a position under Greg Roman and Jim Harbaugh to not fail. The right plays are called at the right time for him, with easy completions that are open for lots of yards after the catch. You could install just about anybody into the 49ers system and get the same kind of performance as you did out of Alex Smith. The coaches saw that, they knew Smith wasn't a spectacular QB, despite having one of the highest QB ratings. His rating was a symptom of the system and play calling, not a showing of his superior talents and decision making. That's why it was an easy decision to bench him. You put him somewhere where the completions don't come as easy (as they don't for Joe Flacco, for instance), and where he has to do more to get the win because he doesn't have one of the NFL's best defenses, and he will fall hard.

You can rack this post. Alex Smith is the definition of a game manager. I laughed when people tried to call Flacco a game manager. Put Alex Smith in the exact same offense Flacco runs, and Smith would probably be at the top of the league in INT's. Alex Smith has a noodle arm, and he's rode an all-world running game and defense at San Fran.

[Shambla]

You can rack this post. Alex Smith is the definition of a game manager. I laughed when people tried to call Flacco a game manager. Put Alex Smith in the exact same offense Flacco runs, and Smith would probably be at the top of the league in INT's. Alex Smith has a noodle arm, and he's rode an all-world running game and defense at San Fran.

I think KC would be a good fit. As pointed out above, Smith isn't going to throw your team to victory so he needs a good running back. Last year Jamaal Charles set the record for career YPC at 5.82 (breaking Jim Brown's 5.22 mark). They also sent six pro bowlers, which is kind of a joke but there's talent on that team. Combine those pieces with a successful coach in Andy Reid and "on paper" they could be a 10 win team.

[blah3]

King Dunlap would be nice in the event that McKinnie isn't re-signed.

Ummm, no.

[Paintballguy]

I think KC would be a good fit. As pointed out above, Smith isn't going to throw your team to victory so he needs a good running back. Last year Jamaal Charles set the record for career YPC at 5.82 (breaking Jim Brown's 5.22 mark). They also sent six pro bowlers, which is kind of a joke but there's talent on that team. Combine those pieces with a successful coach in Andy Reid and "on paper" they could be a 10 win team.

I definitely think Alex Smith is a good fit in KC running Reid's WC offense. It would give them some additional time to draft and groom a young QB.

[OhThePossibilities]

I don't see Alex Smith as that big a step up from Matt Cassell. If I were KC, I wouldn't give up more than a 4th for him.

[houstonravensfan]

Preface any thoughts on this topic by understanding the FO's approach to the draft in years past and how it differs from this year.

Ozzie has very, very rarely gone into the draft with gaping holes on the roster. Although we've been tight up against the cap for many years, he's found veteran "glue guys" and emerging draft picks from prior years to round out the roster everywhere. Very rarely did we have major flux at multiple positions; the closest I can remember us coming is 2011 when the CB depth chart was very concerning and we took Jimmy Smith.

But even then, even if CB was a huge need Ozzie was able to employ his preferred draft strategy: snag a highly talented prospect who falls way below where his talent level should place him. Often that prospect has not been at a position of need, but in 2011 it just so happened to be.

This year is very different. The team has massive, gaping holes at no less than 4 positions (LT, FS, ILB, and DT). If Flacco isn't signed to a long-term deal by March 4th and the tag must be used, the team WILL NOT be able to get the glue guys in free agency to fill in some of those gaps, and in fact they may need to cut players at certain positions and create or deepen more holes in the roster, like at WR.

So, taking into consideration how different this year is from prior years, what does that mean for the draft strategy? To me, it suggests that they won't be able to sit around and wait for a prospect to fall to them. They NEED to add highly talented players that present the possibility of starting in year 1. If they can't sign anybody in free agency, they will have no choice but to go out looking for starters.

To me that means trading up. If a guy you feel is a day-1 starter at a position of need is around in the 20's, there may be no choice but to trade up, because you don't have a starting FS, LT, or ILB on the roster. You just have to fill those needs and you may need to trade up more than once. That's not Ozzie's style but this isn't Ozzie's year either. We'll be able to have a better conversation on this topic once we know whether or not Flacco will be tagged, but at this point that's where I'm leaning.

A+ post. We could go into this draft short at least 5 key D players and 3-5 from the O. I'm worried (OK, I'm always worried).

[Greatness]

We've done very good getting value with more picks, but its time we moved up and get a sho nuff World Beater.

[Rex Thunder]

Oh, my.

I had to look it up, but things certainly would have been different.

Really, and you're going to make everyone look it up? Come on man.

[OhThePossibilities]

Really, and you're going to make everyone look it up? Come on man.

Or you could just read 4 or 5 posts down from that.

[kronusthebonus]

I think this year will mirror this past years draft. There will be several players that slide out of the first round into the top of the second round and there will be guys there that will want to move up into the 32 spot. I bet Oz will trade the 32 to to like 35 or 36, pick up a high to mid 4th round and still get his guy. That'd give us 3 picks in the 4th round, one being a comp. With the depth on the defensive line, I can see them grabbing two qualities defensive linemen with their 2nd and 3rd round picks.

[RavenScallywag]

I think this year will mirror this past years draft. There will be several players that slide out of the first round into the top of the second round and there will be guys there that will want to move up into the 32 spot. I bet Oz will trade the 32 to to like 35 or 36, pick up a high to mid 4th round and still get his guy. That'd give us 3 picks in the 4th round, one being a comp. With the depth on the defensive line, I can see them grabbing two qualities defensive linemen with their 2nd and 3rd round picks.

Just remember, to trade from 32 to 35 or 36...the team at 35 or 36 has to WANT to move up. That means there needs to be some player who slid down to 32 that a team at 33 or 34 might jump on.

Otherwise, we'd have to reduce the value we get for #32 to make the trade.