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  1. #13

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014



    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    San Fran and Denver are the sexy choices...just like they were at the start of the 2012 playoffs

    Both teams have seemingly loaded up this offseason, but both are not without questions and weaknesses. I think it's fair to predict division winners, but the playoffs themselves have proven to be somewhat of a total crapshoot any more.

    If I had to predict the playoff teams now, I'd have:

    AFCW - Denver
    AFCE - New England
    AFCN - Baltimore
    AFCS - Houston
    WC - Indianapolis
    WC - San Diego

    NFCW - San Francisco
    NFCE - New York
    NFCN - Green Bay
    NFCS - New Orleans
    WC - Atlanta
    WC - Seattle
    Seattle and St Louis can beat SF this year, Denver may be sexy, but if they have a tougher schedule this year, they may not make postseason. SF can also be on the outside come postseason with their schedule.




  2. #14
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Columbia, MD
    Posts
    438

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    You can't look at Vegas odds as a slight to a team or props for a team.

    Lines are not generated to show how good or bad any one team will be.

    Lines are generated to make money on both ends. Nothing more.

    I disagree. I think that when it comes to people's own money they're pretty honest with it. It may not be completely perfect, but it's pretty close. If money wasn't involved, and it was just an ESPN poll, it would be different. If you could just say "Oh, the Cowboys and NY market teams are overvalued because of their market so I can make a ton of money betting against them" anybody could easily make a ton of money. But the fact is that most people lose money over time, due to the odds being pretty fair, and the vig.




  3. #15
    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Blair (aka Bel Air)
    Posts
    464

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    I like it.

    I put $500 on the Ravens at 15/1 at Paris last year when in Vegas in August. Going back this year. Hope it stays at 20/1 to increase my winnings...




  4. #16
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Houston, TX Y'all
    Posts
    21,542

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Coastergenius View Post
    I disagree. I think that when it comes to people's own money they're pretty honest with it. It may not be completely perfect, but it's pretty close. If money wasn't involved, and it was just an ESPN poll, it would be different. If you could just say "Oh, the Cowboys and NY market teams are overvalued because of their market so I can make a ton of money betting against them" anybody could easily make a ton of money. But the fact is that most people lose money over time, due to the odds being pretty fair, and the vig.
    I'm confused as to what you're arguing and why markets are relevant.

    Lines are created by books to generate the maximum amount of money (i.e. bets) that favor the book. They are set so they make money on either side of the line.

    Books don't care about markets, who is the better team, etc. All they care about is making the most amount of cash. That's what those lines are for.

    This isn't an opinion. That's gambling 101 fact.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  5. #17

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    Vegas wants even money on each side of the line. That is how they make their money.

    So in some respects, the odds are what the oddsmakers do believe the people out there feel the Ravens chances actually are.




  6. #18

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    Quote Originally Posted by alienrace View Post
    Vegas wants even money on each side of the line. That is how they make their money.

    So in some respects, the odds are what the oddsmakers do believe the people out there feel the Ravens chances actually are.
    That's true of the spread on a game. That's why you see the line shift sometimes. If the money is coming in heavy on the favorite, the book will increase the line.

    Odds of a Superbowl winner are different though. There are 32 teams to choose 1 winner from. So they do factor in the probability of winning it. But then of those probable teams, they try to get money spread around. That's where it becomes part true probability, part interpretation of the bettors' perceptions, part popularity contest. It's not just one simple indicator.




  7. #19

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    How about the odds to win the AFC Championship game?

    http://props.scoresandodds.com/secti...date=4/30/2013

    or the odds to win the NFC Championship game?

    http://props.scoresandodds.com/secti...date=4/30/2013


    ARE YOU NOT ENTERTAINED?!




  8. #20
    Join Date
    Aug 2012
    Location
    Columbia, MD
    Posts
    438

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    Quote Originally Posted by HoustonRaven View Post
    I'm confused as to what you're arguing and why markets are relevant.

    Lines are created by books to generate the maximum amount of money (i.e. bets) that favor the book. They are set so they make money on either side of the line.

    Books don't care about markets, who is the better team, etc. All they care about is making the most amount of cash. That's what those lines are for.

    This isn't an opinion. That's gambling 101 fact.
    I was saying that I can't imagine that people bring their own perferences into the betting world that much. Sure, if it's a toss up, they'll with their favorite team, but when real money is on the line, people become honest very quickly. And, "sentimental" bets might only be for $50, or something nominal. Huge bets that move the line are calculated and methodical.

    I'd imagine that we got such crappy odds due to the fact that we were 10-6 last year and that we lost a lot of key components. People don't have a guarantee as to how our new pieces will fit in. Look at teams like the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers who had great seasons last year and added some players.




  9. #21
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    Houston, TX Y'all
    Posts
    21,542

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Coastergenius View Post
    I was saying that I can't imagine that people bring their own perferences into the betting world that much. Sure, if it's a toss up, they'll with their favorite team, but when real money is on the line, people become honest very quickly. And, "sentimental" bets might only be for $50, or something nominal. Huge bets that move the line are calculated and methodical.

    I'd imagine that we got such crappy odds due to the fact that we were 10-6 last year and that we lost a lot of key components. People don't have a guarantee as to how our new pieces will fit in. Look at teams like the Broncos, Seahawks, and 49ers who had great seasons last year and added some players.
    We got "crappy odds" because the book makers felt that was their best chance at getting the most money.
    WARNING: This post may contain material offensive to those who lack wit, humor, common sense and/or supporting factual or anecdotal evidence. All statements and assertions contained herein may be subject to literary devices not limited to: irony, metaphor, allusion and dripping sarcasm.




  10. #22

    Re: Super Bowl Odds...2014

    i agree with the 49ers being the favorite. i know manning and brady have been there before but after seeing them take dives in key moments of the games against the ravens last year i don't see them repeating.

    there are a lot of things i like about flacco but one reason why i would take flacco over brady and manning is because i know joe won't take a dive, ever, not just at key moments.




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