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Thread: Art Jones

  1. #37
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    Re: Art Jones



    Pitta is a must sign. And with this injury maybe makes it alittle , just alittle cheaper I'm guessing.




  2. #38

    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by leachisabeast View Post
    I don't care if we sign nobody, this team is loaded on the defensive side of the ball. All we need to do is load up on offensive play makers in the draft, and the team won't need anyone in FA. In terms of our own FAs I just want Daryl Smith and James Ihedigbo back really, as they seem to be high level players. Obviously Art Jones would be great to bring back, but that's not happening. If we cut McKinnie, you would have thought that you'd want Oher back. It's either going to be McKinnie cut or Oher left to test the market.
    Also, here's the problem.

    We cut McKinnie. We find a way to trim $10m off the combined 2014 cap totals of Ngata and Suggs (highly optimistic and nearly as highly unrealistic). That saves $13m off the 2013 cap and we STILL have to trim more money just to get under the cap without adding/re-signing any free agents.




  3. #39
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    My apologies, how could I forget about Pitta? I actually think he could be resigned cheaper than you'd think, perhaps on a one year "prove it" type deal?




  4. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post

    Also, here's the problem.

    We cut McKinnie. We find a way to trim $10m off the combined 2014 cap totals of Ngata and Suggs (highly optimistic and nearly as highly unrealistic). That saves $13m off the 2013 cap and we STILL have to trim more money just to get under the cap without adding/re-signing any free agents.
    We're just going to have to make some tough decisions. Guys like Leach and Koch, while great valuable players, are expendable when you want impact players like Pitta, D Smith, and Ihedigbo back.




  5. #41

    Re: Art Jones

    Well, I made a big mistake. I'm sure Ravor would catch me on, so I'm going to admit the mistake. The 2013 salary cap amount for the Ravens contains $10.4m in dead money. So far the 2014 salary cap contains around $2m (mainly Pollard money). So, things aren't quite as bad as I originally stated.

    We are looking at roughly $31.5 in scheduled raises. The net savings gained by replacing our outgoing UFAs is around $16.5. The net savings of our dead money differential is about $8. So instead of having to trim $15m from the cap to get back to even ground, we really only need to trim $7m. That total also doesn't include whatever small amount we are carrying as a surplus that can be applied to the following year and whatever small total the cap increases. It's still a tough spot, but not as ominous as my original math indicated.

    If you look at it another way, Ravor's projected 2014 salary cap has us between $118-119m with only 42 players under contract for next year.




  6. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Well, I made a big mistake. I'm sure Ravor would catch me on, so I'm going to admit the mistake. The 2013 salary cap amount for the Ravens contains $10.4m in dead money. So far the 2014 salary cap contains around $2m (mainly Pollard money). So, things aren't quite as bad as I originally stated.

    We are looking at roughly $31.5 in scheduled raises. The net savings gained by replacing our outgoing UFAs is around $16.5. The net savings of our dead money differential is about $8. So instead of having to trim $15m from the cap to get back to even ground, we really only need to trim $7m. That total also doesn't include whatever small amount we are carrying as a surplus that can be applied to the following year and whatever small total the cap increases. It's still a tough spot, but not as ominous as my original math indicated.

    If you look at it another way, Ravor's projected 2014 salary cap has us between $118-119m with only 42 players under contract for next year.
    Not to worry, you do a good job posting these kind of things anyway. And thats better news, I still think we need to make some tough decisions to get cap relief in order to resign AT LEAST a couple of our guys, and maybe 2 or 3 solid cheap vets.




  7. #43
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    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Well, I made a big mistake. I'm sure Ravor would catch me on, so I'm going to admit the mistake. The 2013 salary cap amount for the Ravens contains $10.4m in dead money. So far the 2014 salary cap contains around $2m (mainly Pollard money). So, things aren't quite as bad as I originally stated.

    We are looking at roughly $31.5 in scheduled raises. The net savings gained by replacing our outgoing UFAs is around $16.5. The net savings of our dead money differential is about $8. So instead of having to trim $15m from the cap to get back to even ground, we really only need to trim $7m. That total also doesn't include whatever small amount we are carrying as a surplus that can be applied to the following year and whatever small total the cap increases. It's still a tough spot, but not as ominous as my original math indicated.

    If you look at it another way, Ravor's projected 2014 salary cap has us between $118-119m with only 42 players under contract for next year.

    Next years NFL cap is unknown, but widely expected to increase substantialy. With the new TV deal and the concussion settlement. The concussion settlement was drop in the bucket compared to revenue, owners got off cheap in that deal.




  8. #44
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    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    FWIW

    Haloti Ngata: 2013 ($11.5 cap hit) 2014 ($16m. With $15m in dead money still)

    Joe Flacco: 2013 ($6.8) 2014 ($14.8 cap hit)

    Terrell Suggs: 2013 ($13.02) 2014 ($12.4 with $4.6 in dead money)

    Marshall Yanda: 2013 (7.45) 2014 ($8.45 with $5.9 in dead)

    Ray Rice: 2013 ($5.75) 2014 ($8.75 with over $14m in dead money)

    Lardarius Webb: 2013 ($5.375) 2014 ($10.5 with $10 in dead money)

    So let's estimate the 2014 cap at around $125m. The Ravens have $70.9m tied up in 6 players for next year. Only Suggs' contract is really cut-friendly, which is a decision I'm sure the Raven front office doesn't want to make given his incredible start to this season.

    What is more concerning is that the raises in cap figures to these six players is $21m. The following players also have raises due:

    Dumervil ($875k raise-still a great value with a cap figure of $3.375. Also, with $6m dead money)

    Canty ($1.6m raise, assuming he is given his $500k march roster bonus. $1.33m in dead money if cut. His total cap figure is $3.1m, which is reasonable for a player of his ability, but it could go either way)

    Spears ($350k)

    Koch ($300k. His cap figure of $2.8m has to be a big target, but he still does $1.2m in dead money. Punter is a hard position to justify this type of contract, but then you see how he played versus Cleveland and you definitely see his value. I think he is a great candidate for a restructure or contract reduction)

    Leach ($860k raise. He might get cut again, as cutting him frees up $1.75 in base salary while costing $580 versus the cap. It's not clear cut.)

    McKinnie ($1.5m raise. He only carries $1m in dead money with a $1m roster bonus, so who knows on this one)

    Huff ($900k raise. This contract looked so dirt cheap that there was no way he wasn't going to see it through to the end of it. Now, I'm not positive on that. I do think Huff makes it into 2014 though, barring an awful finish to his season. The Ravens have to pay him $2.25 towards the cap to keep him in 2014 or pay $1m in dead money. Roughly half of the $1.25m they'd save by cutting him would be paid to his replacement, who likely won't be as experienced, as good, or as versatile, so I think he stays).

    Right there is another $6.4m in raises, meaning the Ravens are committing $27.4m in raises to just the players on the roster who are no longer under their rookie contracts. Now, I'm sure the final number won't be that total, but it is a tough number to look at with any optimism. If you factor in the inherent raises due all of our players still under their rookie contracts, you are looking at roughly another $4m right there as well. So let's just use $31.5 in raises as a starting point.

    What contracts are coming off the books?

    Brandon Stokley ($920k)
    Billy Bajema ($840k)
    Dallas Clark ($940k)
    Terrence Cody ($910k)
    Ed Dickson ($1.3m)
    Corey Graham ($2.65)
    Ighedibo ($620k)
    Jacoby Jones ($4.9m)
    Art Jones ($2.0m)
    Dennis Pitta ($2.0m)
    Jameel McClain ($1.2 in savings. $2.4 cap figure for 2013. Under contract for $4.4 in 2014 with $1.2 in dead money. He's obviously not getting that amount and a cut is likely, which provides a $1.2 savings over 2013)
    Michael Oher ($4.95m)
    Darryl Smith ($1.125)


    Right there is $24.15 in 2013 cap figures that are not on the books for 2014. So, at first sight, it doesn't look too too awful. We have $31.5 in raises and $24.4 coming off in contracts. However, you have to factor in a couple of things.

    #1- this operates that every single player up for FA isn't brought back. For some (Dickson, Jameel, Clark, Cody, Bajema, Stokley) that's not a painful thought. The other seven on the list (Ighedibo, Graham, Oher, J. Jones, D. Smith, A. Jones, Pitta) are key players and you have to think, while losing 4-5 off the list would be expected, it would be painful to lose them all.

    #2- Even if the 13 pending UFAs were all lost via free agency and were all replaced with rookies making the minimum, there's roughly another $6.5m that counts towards the cap. So the $24.15 in expiring contracts would really only save the team $17.65 when you count the players brought in to replace them.

    #3- This is not even factoring in the rookie contract upgrades. If I'm estimating $500k for the 13 rookies/practice squadders replacing the 13 outgoing free agents, I also need to factor in that our 1st/2nd/3rd rounders will probably bring in more than $500k cap figures as rookie. For instance, Elam's cap figure this year is $1.2m and Arthur Brown's is $650k. It's a small adjustment because a few of the rookies are making $450k versus $500k. However, unless the Ravens are drafting in the last 4 spots of the first round (and let's hope they are), they likely going to see a rookie cap figure upgrade of around $1.25m.

    So at the end of the day, the Ravens have about $31.5 in raises and, even if not a single free agent is retained or signed via free agency, about a $16.5 reduction saved by outgoing players. Most of you know I'm not a doom and gloom type guy (I sung Tandon Doss' praises even when his last supporter here had jumped ship), but this is a catastrophic position right now. The Ravens would have to trim $15m off of their meatiest contracts just to get back to the same position they are currently...all without bringing in any more veteran reinforcements. Clearly, they have a long time to find some solutions, but it's highly concerning at the present moment.

    Even if Art Jones was willing to take a sizeable hometown discount, I have no clue where the money would come from, even if it was a severely frontloaded type cap allocation.
    you do know Brian McFarland has this done up on a spreadsheet for next season, on this site?




  9. #45

    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by arnie_uk View Post
    you do know Brian McFarland has this done up on a spreadsheet for next season, on this site?
    Yes, it's been up for months and I refer to it every now and then. Also, www.spotrac.com is a wonderful site for tracking this stuff too. He does an amazing job keeping that spreadsheet up-to-date, but sometimes it's nice to look behind the raw numbers.




  10. #46

    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by Tolucaraven View Post
    Next years NFL cap is unknown, but widely expected to increase substantialy. With the new TV deal and the concussion settlement. The concussion settlement was drop in the bucket compared to revenue, owners got off cheap in that deal.
    We've been hearing since the enactment of the last CBA that the cap was going to see a significant increase for 2014 and 2015, but I've also read several sources who are skeptical about that.




  11. #47
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    Re: Art Jones

    I'm pretty confident in saying that IF (ENORMOUS, GIGANTIC, HUGE IF) Art Jones were to have a "double digit" sack year and really became a dominant player, they wouldn't let him go. I'm sure it'd take every bit of Ozzie's genius but they'd figure it out. They generally don't let dominant players go in their primes. JJ, Bannan, and Edwards were all one dimensional and older when they let them go. Totally different situation with those three.

    I don't think there is any chance that Art actually gets double digit sacks, or even comes close, though, so it's not going to really matter. I believe he's a good player, nothing more, the kind that is fairly easily replaceable by a GM as great as Ozzie.




  12. #48

    Re: Art Jones

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Yes, it's been up for months and I refer to it every now and then. Also, www.spotrac.com is a wonderful site for tracking this stuff too. He does an amazing job keeping that spreadsheet up-to-date, but sometimes it's nice to look behind the raw numbers.
    Agree. I use spotrac too. The hyperlink to each player's contract is nice as well as the column for dead money is handy too. The spreadsheet here is the most accurate and up to date.




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