LukeDaniel, you make some great points, really appreciate discussing with you.

Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
1) 2012 and 2013 were much different seasons for free agency. The 2012 offseason saw a ton of players get way, way too much money. Quite a few of those guys got cut after just one year. How much of that $37.5 did Eric Wright collect when he got cut after one season?
This is interesting and I'll admit that it a trend I havn't noticed. I'm sitting and trying to find comparable players who were free agents in respectively 2012 and 2013 to see if I can find some specific instances of this. The best one I found was Vincent Jackson in 2012 and Mike Wallace in 2013. Jackson got $11.5m/year, Wallace got $12m/year. I'm interested in seeing more comparisons, so feel free to post some if you can find some good ones.

Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
2) If Suggs were to hit the free agent market this upcoming season, then I think he'd probably get about $27 over 3 years, assuming he finishes out this season relatively healthy. That's his true market value. There is no way any team would give an extension for 2015/16 at a 2013 market value, unless the player is likely to ascend rapidly. So when you are determining his extension value, you typically use about 65-80% of present market value to determine future value. Otherwise, what's the upside for the club? It's the trade off that players make to get their money up front, particularly in a sport where injuries can change so much and contracts are non-guaranteed.
I'm not so sure you can find many cases that backs up this claim. When I see extensions around the league those deals are almost always at market value. As to the bolded part: there's plenty of upside for the club. Preventing other teams from going beyond market value or structuring the deal in a way they can't match. Avoiding unflexible salaries, such as the last year of multi-year contract or franchise tag.

Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
3) 2 years-$12m is probably a touch on the light side of what Suggs' value is, even when factoring in the prepay discount. However, the upside for Suggs is immense. His $ 8.4 salary for 2013 becomes guaranteed. If he doesn't take the extension, and gets cut, he's not going to see that type of first-year money anywhere else. Even better for Suggs is that he gets $6m of that $8.4 immediately. He also get's another $2m in signing bonus for his new contract. Lastly, if he gets $27 over 3 with any other team, it's likely going to be heavily front loaded, as to decrease the possibility that he ever sees year #2 and #3 of that contract. By guaranteeing his 2015 contract, the Ravens should be able to get a justifiable discount. Keep in mind, with most NFL contracts, the size of the contract is largely irrelevant. It's the guaranteed money that matters. What I just proposed would guarantee Suggs a minimum of $16.4m ($8.4 due him for 2014 + $2m signing bonus +$6m in 2015)
I know I'm being a little picky right now, but you mean $7.8m and not $8.4m (you've confused the current $4.6m bonus proration with the $4m bonus prorations for 2015/2016 he gets in your suggestion). And $7.8m in first-year payment with a new team? It's absolutely possible he gets that.

In your scenario Suggs receives $15.8m over the course of the first two years. If someone else offers him a 3-year $27m deal which is so frontloaded that it's feasible to cut him after just one year, then that means they have paid A LOT in year 1, and when i say a lot, i mean in the neighbourhood of the $15.8m you have him slotted to make over the course of two years with us. Also if he signs an extension with us, don't you think that would serve as an insurance that he retires a Raven? Suggs will probably be in the league beyond 2015, so I think that if he were to give us a "hometown-discount" (hate that term) then it would require a bit more contractual insurance than you're willing to give him.[/quote]

Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
#4) Even though this is what I would do, I doubt the Ravens will do it. They will likely ask him to take a pay cut or trade him, just like they did with Boldin.
Yeah, but it's much more fun to discuss contract ideas than talking about who's going to get cut. So let's just keep the discussion at that.

I apologize if I come off as being dismissive of your suggestions. I just think it's a fun discussion to have.