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  1. #37
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    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit



    If we're going to compare Flacco and Ryan, which is pointless...fair to note that he had his top 2 WRs and his TE return from last year. Lost Julio Jones a few weeks in, Roddy White has been back and forth with injuries, and Gonzalez has been here or there. But you have to admit, Ryan did not have the personnel turnover that Flacco had.

    And that is where I will end the comparisons.
    .
    .
    “When I think of a Baltimore Raven - we go in there, we take your lunch box, we take your sandwich, we take your juice box, we take your applesauce, and we take your spork and we break it. And we leave you with an empty lunch. That’s the Baltimore Raven way.” - Steve Smith Sr.


    Call me a Special Teams coach again. I dare you! I double dare you, MFer!




  2. #38

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Plus Ryan is playing better than he implies. QB rating of 89.9. Definitely down from last year, but not an off-the-cliff drop, and not even close to a bad year.
    I watch Atlanta games. His QB rating is based off his high completion percentage. Do you know why he has a Hugh completiin percentage? Because he is a checkdown machine. He has the lowest aDOT of all QBs except Alex smith. Do you know why flacco has a low QB rating? He takes a lot of sacks and attempts a lot of low percentage passes.

    You need to see how a QB plays to rely on QB rating. The QB rating formula rewards certain styles of play over others.




  3. #39
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    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by PurpleApocalypse37 View Post
    That's because he started off the season with some good stats when he still had a bunch of freakazoids to throw to.
    Fair point...Ryan's weekly QBRs...

    G1 - 96.8
    G2 - 117.8
    G3 - 84.4
    G4 - 91.7
    G5 - 111 *Julio Jones last game
    G6 - 148.4
    G7 - 47.2
    G8 - 70.4
    G9 - 84.5
    G10 - 70.8
    G11 - 97.4
    .
    .
    “When I think of a Baltimore Raven - we go in there, we take your lunch box, we take your sandwich, we take your juice box, we take your applesauce, and we take your spork and we break it. And we leave you with an empty lunch. That’s the Baltimore Raven way.” - Steve Smith Sr.


    Call me a Special Teams coach again. I dare you! I double dare you, MFer!




  4. #40
    iggyman555 Guest

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    I watch Atlanta games. His QB rating is based off his high completion percentage. Do you know why he has a Hugh completiin percentage? Because he is a checkdown machine. He has the lowest aDOT of all QBs except Alex smith. Do you know why flacco has a low QB rating? He takes a lot of sacks and attempts a lot of low percentage passes.

    You need to see how a QB plays to rely on QB rating. The QB rating formula rewards certain styles of play over others.
    matt ryan

    Y/G 287.3



    joey flacco



    Y/G 246.9




  5. #41
    iggyman555 Guest

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    someone said ATL has a worse OL..


    matt ryan

    SACKS 24

    joey flacco

    SACKS 33




  6. #42

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by iggyman555 View Post
    Matt Ryan


    Yds
    3160

    Y/G
    287.3

    TD
    18

    INT
    12
    QBRat
    89.9





    Joey Flacco



    Yds
    2469

    Y/G
    246.9

    TD
    13

    INT
    13
    QBRat
    75.3
    Quote Originally Posted by iggyman555 View Post
    matt ryan

    Y/G 287.3



    joey flacco



    Y/G 246.9

    Quote Originally Posted by iggyman555 View Post
    someone said ATL has a worse OL..


    matt ryan

    SACKS 24

    joey flacco

    SACKS 33
    This is low level analysis.

    You have to understand the system each QB plays in and the throws they are asked to make. You should have a fundamental understanding of advanced passing metrics as well.

    There is a measurement called "air yards" which measures average depth of target (aDOT) of a pass.

    Ryan has the 31st ranked aDOT, only 6.4 yards deep. Flacco is 6th highest (not sure of the yardage, but likely anywhere from 9-11 yards, in line with his career average). Which means, Flacco attempts much more difficult and deeper passes that have corresponding decreased completion expectation. Similarly, deeper passes require Flacco to hold the ball longer than Ryan on a typical snap, thereby increasing the likelihood of sacks/pressures.

    For example, Flacco has been sacked 33 times. Ryan has been sacked 24 times. Flacco has to wait longer for routes to develop. Ryan does not. Ryan can have a worse OL, but still have less sacks because the ATL passing game relies heavily on slants which are almost instantaneous passes. Ryan does not even hold the ball long enough to get sacked. Meanwhile Flacco is sitting waiting for sideline routes to develop.

    Now that you know that Ryan has a higher completion percentage because his attempts are shorter, less difficult passes (which likewise reduce sack likelihood), go see how having a lower sack rate and higher completion percentage impact the calculation of QB rating. It makes a tremendous difference.

    And then, go factor in what % of Ryan's yards came from YAC as opposed to Flacco's yards. You will see that Ryan has more yards via WR YAC than Flacco, yet those yards all count the same for statistical purposes. In other words, Ryan can throw a 5 yard slant which the WR takes for 40 yards. Whereas Flacco is more apt to throw a 20 Yard pass that the WR might take for 40 yards. Both QBs threw a "40 yard pass"...yet one really threw a 5 yard pass and the other a 20 yard pass.

    Case in point:
    Harry Douglas has 418 yards YAC.
    Torrey Smith has 280.

    You need to know how these numbers are accumulated before you simply state "QB1 is better than QB2" because his QB rating is higher, he has lower sacks, or has more yards. QB rating is largely a mirage and reflects on more than just the QB.

    Don't come at me with raw stats and no context. If you are going to merely regurgitate ESPN baseline stats, don't bother. Because they are nowhere near close to telling the whole story.
    Last edited by bt12483; 11-23-2013 at 07:59 PM.




  7. #43

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Interesting that Tony pointed out Flacco looking off a defender. Don't see it at all in most games. If Flacco could pump fake naturally, instead of rushing it, it would help a lot. I think the sacks and near sacks make Flacco rush his decision making. By being hurried, Flacco automatically throws to the receiver he thinks is going to make the catch. Great passers historically have thrown a lot of interceptions. Brett Favre threw the ball and it became the receivers job to catch it, no matter how many defensive players were covering him.To see Flacco try to hit a receiver covered by 2 or more defenders is unbearable. The odds are against a completed pass.




  8. #44

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    I watch Atlanta games. His QB rating is based off his high completion percentage. Do you know why he has a Hugh completiin percentage? Because he is a checkdown machine. He has the lowest aDOT of all QBs except Alex smith. Do you know why flacco has a low QB rating? He takes a lot of sacks and attempts a lot of low percentage passes.

    You need to see how a QB plays to rely on QB rating. The QB rating formula rewards certain styles of play over others.
    I watch Atlanta games also. Once again you are throwing an excuse out there and pretending it makes the entire difference.

    The simple fact is your insinuation that Ryan is having a terrible year is false. Despite your excuse, he somehow has a higher Y/A number (+0.6), a higher Adjusted Y/A (+1.0), a higher Net Y/A (+0.89), and a higher Adjusted Net Y/A (+1.3). Then there is the TD% (+0.7%) and INT% (-0.7%).


    As for accuracy and aDOT, here you go:

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...on-percentage/


    Obviously the QB rating rewards certain styles of play over others. But combined with all the other stats at our disposal plus our eyes, we can easily determine that Ryan is not playing like "garbage." I wouldn't even say Flacco is playing like garbage, though it is more debatable.




  9. #45

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by lovefootball View Post
    Interesting that Tony pointed out Flacco looking off a defender. Don't see it at all in most games. If Flacco could pump fake naturally, instead of rushing it, it would help a lot. I think the sacks and near sacks make Flacco rush his decision making. By being hurried, Flacco automatically throws to the receiver he thinks is going to make the catch. Great passers historically have thrown a lot of interceptions. Brett Favre threw the ball and it became the receivers job to catch it, no matter how many defensive players were covering him.To see Flacco try to hit a receiver covered by 2 or more defenders is unbearable. The odds are against a completed pass.
    I think part of that is exacerbated by the lack of creativity in the play design (i.e. few rubs, stacks, picks that create natural separation) and a below average WR corps and an almost non-existent TE corps and a totally non-existent (with the exception of the Bears game) running game. Yet despite all these glaring limitations, the focus remains either solely, or primarily, on Joe. It makes no sense. NO QB in the history of the NFL ever competed with a non-existent running game, an O-line that's so dysfunctional they don't even know who they're supposed to block, no dependable TEs, and virtually 1 proven WR in the bunch. It's truly laughable to look at THAT mess and say: "Oh yeah...that QB needs to do better".




  10. #46

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    I watch Atlanta games also. Once again you are throwing an excuse out there and pretending it makes the entire difference.

    The simple fact is your insinuation that Ryan is having a terrible year is false. Despite your excuse, he somehow has a higher Y/A number (+0.6), a higher Adjusted Y/A (+1.0), a higher Net Y/A (+0.89), and a higher Adjusted Net Y/A (+1.3). Then there is the TD% (+0.7%) and INT% (-0.7%).
    Go to any Falcons forum and see the myriad of threads about Ryan underperforming. You have to look past the raw numbers. I already showed how Harry Douglas has 418 YAC yards and Torrey has 280...gee I wonder if that would impact the respective Y/A numbers????????? By golly I think it might. Ryan is getting a free 138 yards in his stat column purely because his WR gives him more YAC. Gee adjust those stats for YAC and I wonder if those numbers would change??? Hmmm... I bet they would.

    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    As for accuracy and aDOT, here you go:

    https://www.profootballfocus.com/blo...on-percentage/
    Thanks...I've already seen that article...IN MARCH 2013.


    Quote Originally Posted by Haloti92 View Post
    Obviously the QB rating rewards certain styles of play over others. But combined with all the other stats at our disposal plus our eyes, we can easily determine that Ryan is not playing like "garbage." I wouldn't even say Flacco is playing like garbage, though it is more debatable.
    The garbage term was hyperbole with respect to both QBs.

    My point was, both are performing well under expectation. Both are performing like "rookies". Both are exhibiting bad habits. WHY???????????????????????????? Suddenly in year 6 they both have regressed? NO.
    They both have horrible OLs, no run support, and lost key pass catchers.




  11. #47
    iggyman555 Guest

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    Go to any Falcons forum and see the myriad of threads about Ryan underperforming. You have to look past the raw numbers. I already showed how Harry Douglas has 418 YAC yards and Torrey has 280...gee I wonder if that would impact the respective Y/A numbers????????? By golly I think it might. Ryan is getting a free 138 yards in his stat column purely because his WR gives him more YAC. Gee adjust those stats for YAC and I wonder if those numbers would change??? Hmmm... I bet they would.

    Thanks...I've already seen that article...IN MARCH 2013.


    The garbage term was hyperbole with respect to both QBs.

    My point was, both are performing well under expectation. Both are performing like "rookies". Both are exhibiting bad habits. WHY???????????????????????????? Suddenly in year 6 they both have regressed? NO.
    They both have horrible OLs, no run support, and lost key pass catchers.
    LOL




  12. #48

    Re: Flacco's Bad Habit

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post
    Go to any Falcons forum and see the myriad of threads about Ryan underperforming. You have to look past the raw numbers. I already showed how Harry Douglas has 418 YAC yards and Torrey has 280...gee I wonder if that would impact the respective y/A numbers????????? Ryan is getting a free 138 yards in his stat column purely because his WR gives him more YAC.
    Wow, you mean there are people on a message board that are complaining about his play? I am shocked. But seriously, I have no idea why you think this is relevant.

    Obviously he is having a worse year than last year, that is indicated by the numbers.

    Harry Douglas has 140 more YAC than Torrey? Wow, that must explain things. Of course if we averaged the Falcons YAC on our completions we would have a paltry 95 more passing yards. (Atlanta 5.79 YAC avg.; Ravens 5.36 YAC avg.). And of course, YAC is a function of more than WR skill, such as not underthrowing open deep routes, not throwing behind guys in crossing routes, etc.

    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

    Thanks...I've already seen that article...IN MARCH 2013.
    Yeah, so? You tossed out there that Ryan throws short throws as if that alone explains his results. The data indicates he throws more accurately than expected on the short throws, and the 0-9 throws and the 10-19 throws. And Flacco shows up in the 0-9 and 10-19 data as well (just not where some would expect him to).

    Are you arguing Ryan is throwing an inordinate amount of checkdowns this year over last year and previous years?


    Quote Originally Posted by bt12483 View Post

    The garbage term was hyperbole with respect to both QBs.

    My point was, both are performing well under expectation. Both are performing like "rookies". Both are exhibiting bad habits. WHY???????????????????????????? Suddenly in year 6 they both have regressed? NO.
    They both have horrible OLs, no run support, and lost key pass catchers.
    Flacco is performing well below his worst year ever. Ryan, not so much. Flacco's 2013 QB rating is 9.6 below his career average. Ryan's is 0.8 below his average.

    Flacco and Ryan, while both performing worse than last year, have not fallen anywhere near equal amounts or to anywhere near equal levels (89.9 QB rating to 75.3 QB rating).
    Last edited by Haloti92; 11-23-2013 at 08:39 PM.




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