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Thread: Draft Thoughts

  1. #13

    Re: Draft Thoughts



    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    While he has just a slightly above average drop rate...it's like a percent and half higher than Jordan Matthews.

    I think most peoples issues with Benjamin aren't his hands, but the fact that he's a raw 24 year old rookie with one year of production and while he has great size, he's just an ok athlete and doesn't have the feet or suddenness to be a good route runner...at least for a while.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Yes. His feet are worse than his hands and he's one-trick guy that doesn't fit The Profile.

    With DT's weed affinity, we'll probably take two Profile guys. Taking both LSU guys would not surprise me at all.

    Pitta and Marlon for the RZ; Torrey, Marlon and Beckham for your deep and mid-range stuff... Pitta, Landry and <TE#2> for the short pick ups. All that in front of an improved OL and run game...
    Back to the AFCCG we go. So get ready!

    Having fun talking football on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  2. #14
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    Thumbs up Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver View Post
    ... Pitta and Marlon for the RZ; Torrey, Marlon and Beckham for your deep and mid-range stuff... Pitta, Landry and <TE#2> for the short pick ups. All that in front of an improved OL and run game...
    Please BPR, I don't know if I'm getting this buzz from your post or my morning (caffeinated) coffee... Bc




  3. #15

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Honestly, regarding Benjamin, I think he'd be better off putting on another 10 pounds and move to TE.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  4. #16

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    Honestly, regarding Benjamin, I think he'd be better off putting on another 10 pounds and move to TE.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD

    Now there's a thought!
    Back to the AFCCG we go. So get ready!

    Having fun talking football on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  5. #17

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    Please BPR, I don't know if I'm getting this buzz from your post or my morning (caffeinated) coffee... Bc
    I'm here all day!
    Back to the AFCCG we go. So get ready!

    Having fun talking football on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  6. #18

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    While he has just a slightly above average drop rate...it's like a percent and half higher than Jordan Matthews.

    I think most peoples issues with Benjamin aren't his hands, but the fact that he's a raw 24 year old rookie with one year of production and while he has great size, he's just an ok athlete and doesn't have the feet or suddenness to be a good route runner...at least for a while.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Didn't know they were that close, thanks for telling me. I guess Matthews just seems more fluid to me, more natural if you will catching the football. I do not want any part of Benjamin. Do you think with lees "slow" 40 it's probable he's there when we pick? I just do not think the value is there if there is an absolute stud defensive player on the board




  7. #19

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Re-capping drop rates for the greater good.
    Trusted public sources used.

    (NFL) Fitzgerald: 1.2

    Jarvis Landry: 2.5

    Mike Evans: 4.29

    Sammy Watkins: 4.49

    Brandin Cooks: 4.69

    Allen Robinson: 5.43

    Odell Beckham: 6.45

    (NFL) Boldin: 6.59

    (NFL Ravens) TSmith: 7.14

    Jordan Matthews: 7.69

    (NFL) A Johnson: 8.4

    Kelvin Benjamin: 9.68

    (NFL) Green: 10.09

    (NFL) C Johnson: 10.64 (Stafford's accuracy, his own extreme radius, hearing footsteps, and finger injuries all contribute IMO)

    (NFL Ravens) Clark: 11.43

    Eric Ebron: 11.43

    (NFL) Welker: 12.05 (His dirty little secret. He's been at or above 10% since 2010)

    Marqise Lee: 12.31

    (NFL Ravens) Dickson: 16.67


    Edit: Blue text was horrible
    Back to the AFCCG we go. So get ready!

    Having fun talking football on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  8. #20

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by JCroUSAF View Post
    Didn't know they were that close, thanks for telling me. I guess Matthews just seems more fluid to me, more natural if you will catching the football. I do not want any part of Benjamin. Do you think with lees "slow" 40 it's probable he's there when we pick? I just do not think the value is there if there is an absolute stud defensive player on the board
    Oh, he'll be there at 17, and probably at 48.

    I think Benjamin suffered badly from his performance on Sunday and it's not because he had a bad day at all.

    I think he is a victim of a lot of hype and sky high expectations. He ran a 4.6 40 which honestly, for a guy his size is pretty good and he had a solid day in the drills. But I think people thought...expected...him to run in the mid to high 4.4 range and to look more athletic than a physically similar guy in Evans.

    That all turned out to not be the case.

    So instead of Benjamin being this huge freak at WR, he turned out to just be a solid big WR. People will overlook his flaws a lot more if you are a freak of nature as opposed to merely above average.

    I think he falls to the back of the second/early 3rd.

    And BPR did me/all of us, a solid by reporting drop rates. Looks like Benjamin is 2 full percentage points higher than Matthews.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  9. #21

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    No prob. Threads everywhere. Couldn't remember where I put the original. I need to start using googledocs or something. Stats = exploration for me.
    Back to the AFCCG we go. So get ready!

    Having fun talking football on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  10. #22
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    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by BigPlayReceiver View Post
    No prob. Threads everywhere. Couldn't remember where I put the original. I need to start using googledocs or something. Stats = exploration for me.

    I could have sworn that Jordan Matthews had a +10% drop rate for some reason. I see you have him in the 7% range. Where in the world did I hear that? I have been bad mouthing the shit out him.




  11. #23

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbirds80 View Post
    I could have sworn that Jordan Matthews had a +10% drop rate for some reason. I see you have him in the 7% range. Where in the world did I hear that? I have been bad mouthing the shit out him.
    hahaha...I'm not sure man.
    Back to the AFCCG we go. So get ready!

    Having fun talking football on Twitter @BigPlayReceiver




  12. #24

    Re: Draft Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Stealthbirds80 View Post
    I could have sworn that Jordan Matthews had a +10% drop rate for some reason. I see you have him in the 7% range. Where in the world did I hear that? I have been bad mouthing the shit out him.
    Well, the raw drop number with Matthews needs a little additional context. I believe he caught 50% of his total receptions (or thereabouts) on passes behind the LOS, which is on par with Watkins but dramatically higher than most of the other top 8-10 receivers in the class.

    When a guy has that high a drop rate and only 50% of his passes are even beyond the LOS, I would frown on him a little more in comparison to the rest of the list (same goes for Watkins.) That contrasts with guys like Landry and Beckham, who have a FAR higher proportion of their receptions beyond 10 yards from the LOS--thus their "real" drop rate should be adjusted downward. Landry, for example, dropped only 2 balls in the entire 2013 season, which is outstanding especially given his deeper depth of target.

    There are all kinds of ways to contextualize the numbers, but generally speaking, they don't lie too much. Bottom line on Jordan Matthews is that "hands" are not really a strength for him, on balance--he can make nice catches, but he drops his share as well.




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