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  1. #1

    What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)



    The draft thread is pushing 220 pages, so I'm gonna start this craziness in a new thread.


    Here is a different look at the upcoming draft using a crazy, but not unrealistic scenario.



    1- At pick 17, with Taylor Lewan and Mike Evans and Ha Ha off the board, the Ravens are agreeable to trade down as the next handful of prospects are scored evenly. The Arizona Cardinals come calling. The Cardinals have a respectable duo of WRs in Floyd and Fitzgerald, but have nobody on the roster behind them. With Fitzgerald entering the back 1/3rd of his HOF caliber career, the Cardinals are looking for a short term contributor who can play the slot and eventually be paired with Floyd long-term. With the Jets at 18--- the team most likely to take a WR---the Cardinals want Odell Beckham at 17.

    Using the draft value chart, trading from 17 to 20 gives you a value of 100 points. The Cardinals offer their 4th round pick (120), which carries a value of 54 points. Ozzie says no. Ozzie asks for the Cards 3rd rounder (pick 84), but the Cards say no, as they should, since it carries a 170 point value. The Cardinals throw in their 5th rounder (pick 160-27 points) and Ozzie agrees. Even though technically he gave up 100 points and only got 81 in return, it's still a great maneuver for the Ravens since they now have picked up two extra picks with only surrendering 3 spots in the 1st round.

    The Ravens now have the following picks: 20/48/79/99/120/134/138/160/175/194



    2- Pick 20 arrives. The Ravens are zeroing in on a cornerback or FS as Pryor/Dennard/Gilbert/Fuller are all still on the board. But wait, there might be another brother connection coming into play. Ozzie phone rings and it's a popular trading partner of late---the 49ers. It's no secret that the 49ers love Justin Gilbert and have been rumored to be looking to trade up in order to acquire him. With virtually every team between 20-29 going down as one that could use a CB, the odds of any of the trio reaching SF are slim. The 49ers have 12 overall picks, including 6 in the top 100, which of course Ozzie knows.

    By dropping from 20 to 30, the Ravens are going from 850 points to 620 points, which carries a significant collateral. 230 points is equal to the 72nd pick in the draft. Coincidentally the 49ers carry pick 77. However, Ozzie plays the odds that the 49ers interest in whoever they want to draft is sky high, given that the 49ers are climbing 10 spots. He also plays the odds that some of their picks might be more disposable if it yields a player who puts them "over the top in their minds". Ozzie asks for pick #61, which carries a 292 point value. The 49ers, while looking to make waves, are a smartly-run team and insist on pick 120 in return from the Ravens (54 point value). Ozzie sees that as a valuable pick that he doesn't want to surrender, and eventually offers pick 20 and a 3rd rounder-pick 79 (1045 total points) for picks 30/61/124 from San Fran (1036 points). In essence for trading down 10 spots, the Ravens get a late 2nd and a late 3rd in exchange for their mid 3rd. The 49ers and Ravens both walk away happy.

    The 49ers take Justin Gilbert.

    The Ravens now have picks 30/48/61/94/99/120/134/138/160/175/194. This puts the Ravens now with 11 overall picks, including two 2nds, three 3rds, and three 4ths. Look at it another way, by moving down 13 spots in the drafts, the Ravens re-gained the 4th rounder and 5th rounder that they lost by trading for Eugene Monroe (pick 120 and 160) AND managed to pick up an additional late 2nd rounder along the way (pick 61). So for the loss of 13 spots of in draft order in the first round, the Ravens got an extra 2nd rounder AND a ready-made, proven, capable LT in his prime. Would you make that trade? I certainly would.

    I'll finish part two of this draft in a few minutes when I get home.




  2. #2
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    Cool Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The draft thread is pushing 220 pages, so I'm gonna start this craziness in a new thread.


    Here is a different look at the upcoming draft using a crazy, but not unrealistic scenario.



    1- At pick 17, with Taylor Lewan and Mike Evans and Ha Ha off the board, the Ravens are agreeable to trade down as the next handful of prospects are scored evenly. The Arizona Cardinals come calling. The Cardinals have a respectable duo of WRs in Floyd and Fitzgerald, but have nobody on the roster behind them. With Fitzgerald entering the back 1/3rd of his HOF caliber career, the Cardinals are looking for a short term contributor who can play the slot and eventually be paired with Floyd long-term. With the Jets at 18--- the team most likely to take a WR---the Cardinals want Odell Beckham at 17.

    Using the draft value chart, trading from 17 to 20 gives you a value of 100 points. The Cardinals offer their 4th round pick (120), which carries a value of 54 points. Ozzie says no. Ozzie asks for the Cards 3rd rounder (pick 84), but the Cards say no, as they should, since it carries a 170 point value. The Cardinals throw in their 5th rounder (pick 160-27 points) and Ozzie agrees. Even though technically he gave up 100 points and only got 81 in return, it's still a great maneuver for the Ravens since they now have picked up two extra picks with only surrendering 3 spots in the 1st round.

    The Ravens now have the following picks: 20/48/79/99/120/134/138/160/175/194



    2- Pick 20 arrives. The Ravens are zeroing in on a cornerback or FS as Pryor/Dennard/Gilbert/Fuller are all still on the board. But wait, there might be another brother connection coming into play. Ozzie phone rings and it's a popular trading partner of late---the 49ers. It's no secret that the 49ers love Justin Gilbert and have been rumored to be looking to trade up in order to acquire him. With virtually every team between 20-29 going down as one that could use a CB, the odds of any of the trio reaching SF are slim. The 49ers have 12 overall picks, including 6 in the top 100, which of course Ozzie knows.

    By dropping from 20 to 30, the Ravens are going from 850 points to 620 points, which carries a significant collateral. 230 points is equal to the 72nd pick in the draft. Coincidentally the 49ers carry pick 77. However, Ozzie plays the odds that the 49ers interest in whoever they want to draft is sky high, given that the 49ers are climbing 10 spots. He also plays the odds that some of their picks might be more disposable if it yields a player who puts them "over the top in their minds". Ozzie asks for pick #61, which carries a 292 point value. The 49ers, while looking to make waves, are a smartly-run team and insist on pick 120 in return from the Ravens (54 point value). Ozzie sees that as a valuable pick that he doesn't want to surrender, and eventually offers pick 20 and a 3rd rounder-pick 79 (1045 total points) for picks 30/61/124 from San Fran (1036 points). In essence for trading down 10 spots, the Ravens get a late 2nd and a late 3rd in exchange for their mid 3rd. The 49ers and Ravens both walk away happy.

    The 49ers take Justin Gilbert.

    The Ravens now have picks 30/48/61/94/99/120/134/138/160/175/194. This puts the Ravens now with 11 overall picks, including two 2nds, three 3rds, and three 4ths. Look at it another way, by moving down 13 spots in the drafts, the Ravens re-gained the 4th rounder and 5th rounder that they lost by trading for Eugene Monroe (pick 120 and 160) AND managed to pick up an additional late 2nd rounder along the way (pick 61). So for the loss of 13 spots of in draft order in the first round, the Ravens got an extra 2nd rounder AND a ready-made, proven, capable LT in his prime. Would you make that trade? I certainly would.

    I'll finish part two of this draft in a few minutes when I get home.
    To sum this up in two words: NO WAY!

    First of all, if Gilbert and Dennard are still on the board I'd probably grab one or the other with the 17th (whichever the Ravens think is the best)! However, if I wanted to think about trading down I would first call the Niners rather than the Cardinals and offer them the 17th for their 30th pick, their lower of their two 2nd round picks (not the 61st) and one of their two 3rd round picks. I suspect that the point total does not add up in their favor but if the Niners want Gilbert (perhaps the best CB in the draft) I'd tell them, "Take it or leave it". The Niners have so many picks that if they want to be penny-wise and pound foolish and say no, then I'd tell them to go pound sand!




  3. #3

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    I am all for trading down, but that appears to be a little too much for my taste.




  4. #4
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    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    I hate to not take a potential pro bowler at 17, we surely need a playmaker on D or an OL rock.
    But I also am not comfortable with us only having one trade-able pick after #79 our 3rd rounder, that being #194 our 6th rounder
    It is nice having a 3rd, 4th 4th 5th comp but we can't really move around after #79 .... without trading the 1st for a lower 1st, it looks like we are going to be in a wait and hope as the later draft unfolds and not be able to do a thing about it
    Heinz Field Ketchup official ketchup of the Ravens?




  5. #5

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Pick 30 (1st) arrives: The Ravens are looking at filling one of five positions at this pick RT/WR/DE/CB/S. Zach Martin has been off the board since Miami. Nobody else is worthy at that position for such a high pick. Pryor just got drafted and there is no other FS who represents a good value at pick 30. Dennard and Fuller were drafted as well and no other cornerbacks are available worthy of that pick. Marquise Lee is available (slight slide) and represents the best value among WRs...however....Ozzie sees a player who is a great value at a position of need and selects Stephon Tuitt-DE-Notre Dame. Tuitt is a great fit in a number of ways. First off, he has the size and length (6-5/308) to handle that position from the get-go. He doesn't need to bulk up to handle the position. He is a perfect 5-gap 3-4 DE in the NFL, having played a very similar position in college. Tuitt is a starter from week one, and will have the opportunity to learn the position better under Chris Canty. Tuitt would be the most athletic, pass-rushing force at the 3-4 DE position since Harbaugh took over. Great fit.

    Ravens pick next at 48(2). Every team at from 43-47 (Giants, Rams, Lions, Steelers, Cowboys) are all teams that need a safety. Tennessee at 42 does not. The Ravens inquire about that availability of pick 42 from Tennessee. Tennessee only has six picks and only 3 in the top 150 and is looking to trade down and add depth. Trading down 5 spots should cost the Ravens 50 points. The pick 120 acquired from Arizona earlier happens to carry a value of 54. The deal is done. Ozzie hates to give up a 4th rounder, but with two compensatory picks in the 4th, it's a move worth making since there is only one safety left in the draft who is viewed as a potential instant starter. The Ravens select Jimmie Ward/S/Northern Illinois. Ward has okay size for the position and instincts that stood out well. He is a natural fit at FS and a long-term partner with Elam for the next four seasons.

    The Ravens next pick at 61(2). There are still 3 positions of focus, which in priority, remain RT/CB/WR. Sometimes in the NFL draft, you see solid players with less-than-eyepopping physical gifts who drop a little in favor of upward trending players who might have more athletic upside. You see this more at WR and CB than probably any other position. For that reason, the Ravens are tickled to find a player they had interest in at pick 48 still available at the 61st pick that they acquired from San Francisco. The Ravens select Jordan Matthews/WR/Vanderbilt. Matthews has size, speed, polish, and unquestioned results against tough competition. When you look at his overall makeup, there is really little you need to explain here as to why this pick makes sense and is a great value.

    Pick 94(3) is coming up. Since pick 99 cannot be traded, the Ravens know very well that this might be their last opportunity to take an upward stab at a player they like for a while. Pick 84 arrives and a player they are fond of is still on the board. They contact their trading partner from the previous day, the Arizona Cardinals, and offer a trade. Ironically, the Ravens offer pick 94, 160 (which was acquired from AZ just the day earlier)plus pick 194, in exchange for pick 84. The value is a near wash, with the Ravens getting 170 points of value and AZ getting 165.6. The Cardinals only have one pick remaining after pick 84, so it makes great sense for them to pick up the 5th and 6th rounders. With pick 84, the Ravens select Stanley Jean-Baptiste, CB, Nebraska. Right now the Ravens could use a 2nd big, capable (as in not Chykie Brown) cornerback on their roster, as Asa Jackson and Lardarius Webb are both on the small side. Jean Baptiste fits that role well.

    Pick 99(3)- Cameron Fleming-T-Stanford The Ravens were gambling that Fleming would make it to them at 99 and are happy he did. Fleming does not get the buzz that others may have, but he was a two year starter at an elite program and has the perfect size (6-4/325) to step in right away and start at RT. Stanford's running attack with Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney was dynamic the past two seasons and Fleming was a huge part of that.

    Pick 134(4)- CJ Fedorowicz- TE-Iowa Anyone who has been following my drafts knows I have this seat permanently reserved for CJF. He's a perfect fit for the Ravens roster right now. The Ravens need a young 3rd TE who can block. CJ is that guy and can add that value instantly on short-yardage situations. However, the plus with Fedorowicz is that in the event that Pitta or Daniels goes down, he can contribute as a receiver as well if needed. Very low risk-moderate reward type player.

    Pick 138(4)- Aaron Murray-QB-Georgia Anyone who has watched even one Saturday of college football over the past four years should know who Aaron Murray is. He is only 6-1 and is coming off a serious knee injury, but he has a strong arm, good accuracy, acceptable mobility (pre injury at least), and a great feel for the position. Murray, if not for the injury, would have been looked at in the 2nd/3rd rounds, so he is a nice value in the late 4th range. I'm not sure that Aaron Murray will ever be a long-term starter in the NFL, but I view him as the type of player who can be a capable backup. With Tyrod Taylor in the fold and Flacco being so durable, there might a chance Murray would start the season on the PUP list.

    Pick 175- Tyler Gaffney-RB-Stanford I think this is the mode a lot of NFL teams are going through with the RB position. Rather than looking for the flashy gamebreaker in the early rounds, you sit back and wait for a solid,less flashy, productive back to fall to you in the late rounds and then you rotate/platoon him with 1-2 other backs who have slightly differing skills. Gaffney was a productive, straight ahead type runner at Stanford. He catches the ball decently out of the backfield also. He's different than Pierce (who is a poor receiver and runs east-west far too much) and bigger than Rice (obviously). He's a nice mix between the two. He also gives the Ravens a better alternative than Justin Forsett or Cierre Wood as the #2 back while Ray Rice serves his all-but-guaranteed suspension.

    Thoughts??????




  6. #6

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by Rxdoxx View Post
    I hate to not take a potential pro bowler at 17, we surely need a playmaker on D or an OL rock.
    But I also am not comfortable with us only having one trade-able pick after #79 our 3rd rounder, that being #194 our 6th rounder
    It is nice having a 3rd, 4th 4th 5th comp but we can't really move around after #79 .... without trading the 1st for a lower 1st, it looks like we are going to be in a wait and hope as the later draft unfolds and not be able to do a thing about it
    Exactly. The only way to trade up for a great value in round 2 or 3 is to trade down in round one.




  7. #7

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeCool5 View Post
    I am all for trading down, but that appears to be a little too much for my taste.
    Look at the picks first




  8. #8
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    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by JoeCool5 View Post
    I am all for trading down, but that appears to be a little too much for my taste.
    Unless the Ravens take all those additional picks and retroactively trade back into the top of the first round and select Sammy Watkins.

    That is just about as plausible as this scenario.




  9. #9
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    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Exactly. The only way to trade up for a great value in round 2 or 3 is to trade down in round one.
    I agree with this and I think it's entirely possible (and probable) that the Ravens trade back if they can find a partner. I just don't see all those things in your scenario happening unless you are playing that draft game at first-pick.com.

    Although I like most of the guys you chose to draft in your imagination. I especially like Aaron Murray as a #2 a lot, but I'm not a big fan of Cameron Fleming as compared to other options on the line.




  10. #10

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by alien bird View Post
    Unless the Ravens take all those additional picks and retroactively trade back into the top of the first round and select Sammy Watkins.

    That is just about as plausible as this scenario.

    Ouch. I don't think anything I proposed above is unrealistic. Arizona moving up for a WR is plausible and the value in return is proportionate to the value chart. SF wanting to trade up for Gilbert has been mentioned by multiple sites.




  11. #11
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    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Ouch. I don't think anything I proposed above is unrealistic. Arizona moving up for a WR is plausible and the value in return is proportionate to the value chart. SF wanting to trade up for Gilbert has been mentioned by multiple sites.
    I'm just messing with you. It's fun to explore the options and possibilities. I just don't think it goes that way, but it would be great if it did. I definitely think that if Ozzie wants to get his targeted players, he is going to really hav to work the phones hard this year.




  12. #12

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    So to recap

    1(30)-Tuitt/DE
    2(42)-Ward/FS
    2(61)-Matthews/WR
    3(84)-Jean Baptiste/CB
    3(99)- Fleming/RT
    4(134)-Fedorowicz/TE
    4(138)-Murray/QB
    5(175)-Gaffney/RB




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