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  1. #25
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    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)



    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    The draft thread is pushing 220 pages, so I'm gonna start this craziness in a new thread.




    Here is a different look at the upcoming draft using a crazy, but not unrealistic scenario.



    1- At pick 17, with Taylor Lewan and Mike Evans and Ha Ha off the board, the Ravens are agreeable to trade down as the next handful of prospects are scored evenly. The Arizona Cardinals come calling. The Cardinals have a respectable duo of WRs in Floyd and Fitzgerald, but have nobody on the roster behind them. With Fitzgerald entering the back 1/3rd of his HOF caliber career, the Cardinals are looking for a short term contributor who can play the slot and eventually be paired with Floyd long-term. With the Jets at 18--- the team most likely to take a WR---the Cardinals want Odell Beckham at 17.

    Using the draft value chart, trading from 17 to 20 gives you a value of 100 points. The Cardinals offer their 4th round pick (120), which carries a value of 54 points. Ozzie says no. Ozzie asks for the Cards 3rd rounder (pick 84), but the Cards say no, as they should, since it carries a 170 point value. The Cardinals throw in their 5th rounder (pick 160-27 points) and Ozzie agrees. Even though technically he gave up 100 points and only got 81 in return, it's still a great maneuver for the Ravens since they now have picked up two extra picks with only surrendering 3 spots in the 1st round.

    The Ravens now have the following picks: 20/48/79/99/120/134/138/160/175/194



    2- Pick 20 arrives. The Ravens are zeroing in on a cornerback or FS as Pryor/Dennard/Gilbert/Fuller are all still on the board. But wait, there might be another brother connection coming into play. Ozzie phone rings and it's a popular trading partner of late---the 49ers. It's no secret that the 49ers love Justin Gilbert and have been rumored to be looking to trade up in order to acquire him. With virtually every team between 20-29 going down as one that could use a CB, the odds of any of the trio reaching SF are slim. The 49ers have 12 overall picks, including 6 in the top 100, which of course Ozzie knows.

    By dropping from 20 to 30, the Ravens are going from 850 points to 620 points, which carries a significant collateral. 230 points is equal to the 72nd pick in the draft. Coincidentally the 49ers carry pick 77. However, Ozzie plays the odds that the 49ers interest in whoever they want to draft is sky high, given that the 49ers are climbing 10 spots. He also plays the odds that some of their picks might be more disposable if it yields a player who puts them "over the top in their minds". Ozzie asks for pick #61, which carries a 292 point value. The 49ers, while looking to make waves, are a smartly-run team and insist on pick 120 in return from the Ravens (54 point value). Ozzie sees that as a valuable pick that he doesn't want to surrender, and eventually offers pick 20 and a 3rd rounder-pick 79 (1045 total points) for picks 30/61/124 from San Fran (1036 points). In essence for trading down 10 spots, the Ravens get a late 2nd and a late 3rd in exchange for their mid 3rd. The 49ers and Ravens both walk away happy.

    The 49ers take Justin Gilbert.

    The Ravens now have picks 30/48/61/94/99/120/134/138/160/175/194. This puts the Ravens now with 11 overall picks, including two 2nds, three 3rds, and three 4ths. Look at it another way, by moving down 13 spots in the drafts, the Ravens re-gained the 4th rounder and 5th rounder that they lost by trading for Eugene Monroe (pick 120 and 160) AND managed to pick up an additional late 2nd rounder along the way (pick 61). So for the loss of 13 spots of in draft order in the first round, the Ravens got an extra 2nd rounder AND a ready-made, proven, capable LT in his prime. Would you make that trade? I certainly would.

    I'll finish part two of this draft in a few minutes when I get home.
    I like your #1 scenario but I posted comments from Bisciotti who said it's gonna be really hard to trade down this year because it's such a deep draft and a lot of teams will be doing it and besides, Ozzie won the SB recently doing it that way and other teams are copying.

    Bisciotti expects Ravens to stand still @17 and take the best player at that spot. That has worked before too.

    Ozzie is really gonna have to work the phones hard to trade down this year if he wants to trade down in 1st round.
    Pic of a natural act: UBER RAVENS FAN AND HISTORIAN GURU. THE PAST IS NOT DEAD, IN FACT, IT IS NOT EVEN PAST.' WILLIAM FAULKNER.




  2. #26
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    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Exactly. The only way to trade up for a great value in round 2 or 3 is to trade down in round one.

    Ozzie's strength has been his ability to move around in the draft
    The following 2 links are to 2 posts of mine illustrating the Ravens 3rd round moving

    http://russellstreetreport.com/forum...177#post767177
    Since 2005 the times we have used our own is 2009 Lardarius Webb and 2013 Brandon Williams

    9 years, 10 players, exactly 2 with our own 3rd
    http://russellstreetreport.com/forum...ht=#post767272

    So if my count is correct we used our own 3rd rounder 6 times total in 18 drafts, trading it 66.6% of the time
    The other strength of the Ravens has been the solidity of their board, of which Ozzie is a part but so is everyone else starting with the Scouts.
    The beauty has been working draft position with board position.
    You may not be expressing it exactly as I am, but that is why both of us want to see some "wiggle room" created for Ozzie.

    If we have to just sit back and let the board play out, so be it, it will be solid enough to hold its own, but make for tense dull nail biting on draft day with us not being able to "change the clock"

    Personally I like the composite of your picks.... I think if we get Tuitt then Mt Cody is squeezed. However I would feel better if the Ravens moved uo somewhere and took somebody.... only because it feels better that we got a better gem as opposed to BPA
    Heinz Field Ketchup official ketchup of the Ravens?




  3. #27

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    If we were picking in say the early 20s I'd say yeah sure all for it. But I think this is the year to move up a few spots if need be or if we're sure someone is falling to stay put. We need a game changer difference maker this year. Not just a couple more good players and situational guys. We of course need those also but our first pick needs to be a game changer. We haven't had one in quite a few years.




  4. #28

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Maybe this is the year we should trade a combination of this year and next year assortment of 2nd 3rd round picks and grab a guy like Evans. We were gifted a third this year maybe it's time.

    I wonder what our compensatory picks will look like next year. Maybe a 4th for Art, other than him no real impact names.




  5. #29

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by LukeDaniel View Post
    Look at the picks first
    I looked at your picks and they're fine, but it just seems unrealistic to me. Again, I want to trade back into the 20s in this deep draft, but I don't see how your scenario works.




  6. #30

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    It all depends on who's there. We very rarely have draft stock this high, I say it's time to capitalize on it. If a blue chip prospect is there we should take him. We've gotten good value picks at the end of the 1st, good players but few difference makers.




  7. #31

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Gilbert is gone at #10 to DET.




  8. #32

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    If as some people think there will be a run on QB's then I'm definitely staying at 17 as there should be some stud players for us to draft.




  9. #33

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by Gabe View Post
    If as some people think there will be a run on QB's then I'm definitely staying at 17 as there should be some stud players for us to draft.
    Yeah, I feel the same way. I'm pretty sure we pick at 17 assuming at least 3 QB's go. That would mean at least one of these players is still available:
    Greg Robinson
    Jake Matthews
    Taylor Lewan
    Zach Martin
    Sammy Watkins
    Mike Evans
    Eric Ebron
    Jadaveon Clowney
    Kalil Mack
    Anthony Barr
    Justin Gilbert
    Darqueeze Dennard
    Ha Ha Clinton Dix
    Calvin Pryor
    IF less then 3 QB's go, and NO ONE from this list remains,is, IMO the only way we trade back, if possible. If a trade is unavailable, that is the "nightmare scenario".




  10. #34

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    I only see one QB going in the top 20.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    Although Walsh's system of offense can compensate for lack of talent; however, defense is a different story. According to Walsh, talent on defense was essential and could not be compensated for. What did Walsh do in 1981? He acquired physical and talented players on defense.




  11. #35

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by Raveninwoodlawn View Post
    I only see one QB going in the top 20.


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk HD
    I don't see any QB's that "SHOULD" go in the top 20, but I HOPE you are wrong.




  12. #36

    Re: What would you think about this draft? (Just for kicks on a Friday)

    Quote Originally Posted by jonboy79 View Post
    Yeah, I feel the same way. I'm pretty sure we pick at 17 assuming at least 3 QB's go. That would mean at least one of these players is still available:
    Greg Robinson
    Jake Matthews
    Taylor Lewan
    Zach Martin
    Sammy Watkins
    Mike Evans
    Eric Ebron
    Jadaveon Clowney
    Kalil Mack
    Anthony Barr
    Justin Gilbert
    Darqueeze Dennard
    Ha Ha Clinton Dix
    Calvin Pryor
    IF less then 3 QB's go, and NO ONE from this list remains,is, IMO the only way we trade back, if possible. If a trade is unavailable, that is the "nightmare scenario".
    So under this "nightmare scenario" (which I agree would be worst case) who do we take if all 14 of those players are gone and we can't find a trade back partner? What if 13 are gone and only Ebron is left?

    I'm thinking Fuller is the top target at that point. Next in line would be Beckham, Lee, Nix, and Hageman. I wouldn't wince too hard with Fuller at 17, but anyone other than him, I wouldn't be happy with.




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