Three Point Underdogs Against the Squeelers??

[StingerNLG]

Now, if that really happened, I am thinking PPV.

[skaybaltimore]

Skay, you really seem to have a bug up your ass about the point spread on this game.

Moi?



GO RAVENS!!!

[psuasskicker]

I put a unit on the Ravens +3.5 and the under 36.5 for this weekend for a couple reasons...

1) I look for covers with the O/U. Who do I think will cover and what do I think has to happen if they don't. Here, I think that for the Steelers to cover the spread, they must completely shut down our O and not let our D score, and I don't think our D will allow them to score more than 21. 21-17 is the only score I worry about, hence the U off-sets my risk with Ravens to cover.

2) I also think it goes Ravens cover + U a LOT more than Steelers cover + O (should go without saying, but I expect to win two a good bit more than I lose two...far more than enough to cover the vig).

3) Home field is usually 3 points. I think it's nuts to think that any 7-7 team vs. an 11-3 team can be even money on a neutral field, especially when that 7-7 team played that 11-3 team earlier in the year and got absolutely obliterated.

The Steelers are 3-0 in their last three and 5-1 their last six (all three teams they beat suck, BTW). But we're chopped liver? We've won two straight including a tough one @ KC and are 7-1 our last eight.

That line just doesn't seem right to me. I love that it's +3.5 and not +2.5 cause I think this one could easily come down to a FG at the last second, either way. The only thing that concerns me is how many won't play. If 3 of our injured 6 sit out, then I don't think there's much if any EV+ here. But I expect our D to shut down their run game, and Ben hasn't been a good passer when forced to throw a lot.

- C -

[Sports Steve]

The three points is only a home field amount given.