Is anyone an ESPN Insider?

**JimZipCode** · 11-17-2009, 07:29 AM

How does the rest of this article go?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...ory?id=4650857
offense has been driven by two players who have made phenomenal improvements in their second seasons: quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice. To get an idea of where each player's career might be headed, we decided to look at their first two seasons using similarity scores.

**elland** · 11-17-2009, 07:50 AM

Originally Posted by JimZipCode

How does the rest of this article go?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insid...ory?id=4650857
offense has been driven by two players who have made phenomenal improvements in their second seasons: quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice. To get an idea of where each player's career might be headed, we decided to look at their first two seasons using similarity scores.

Not sure how to paste the tabels...

The Baltimore Ravens are a defensive powerhouse, right? Not necessarily. This year's Ravens have actually been led by the offense, which ranks sixth in the NFL according to Football Outsiders' power ratings. That offense has been driven by two players who have made phenomenal improvements in their second seasons: quarterback Joe Flacco and running back Ray Rice.

To get an idea of where each player's career might be headed, we decided to look at their first two seasons using similarity scores. Similarity scores were first introduced by Bill James to compare baseball players to other baseball players from the past, and the idea has spread to other sports. Similarity scores play a major role in John Hollinger's NBA analysis, and we've developed our own version that we use to look at career progressions.

Similarity scores are far from perfect, of course. They compare standard statistics like yards and touchdowns, so they are subject to all kinds of biases from strength of schedule to the quality of each player's offensive line. Nevertheless, they're fun to play with and they tell you interesting things about current players.

We've doubled the stats for 2009 (since we've played half a season) and then found players who were most similar to Flacco and Rice over a two-year span. For space reasons, only the second of the two seasons is listed.

Let's start with Flacco: Tabel..
and That's right. Joe Flacco is on pace for a 4,000-yard season. He's also on pace to throw 140 more passes than a year ago, and to complete five percent more of them. It's an extremely impressive improvement which looks even better when you see the historical quarterbacks Flacco can be compared to.

We only compared Flacco to other quarterbacks in their first two seasons as a starter, and you'll notice he's younger than nine of the ten most comparable players. That gives him even more room for growth than the average second-year NFL starter, and it means the Ravens will get more years of production from Flacco before he hits his decline.

Even more impressive? Using both seasons, the most similar quarterback to Flacco is Carson Palmer. But if we look only at the second season of each quarterback, the season most similar to the one Flacco is having this year belongs to Peyton Manning. Yes, Flacco is playing that well. And Manning is the only quarterback on our list who was even younger than Flacco in his second year.

Rice Tabel..

Rice's 2009 season is even more impressive than Flacco's. According to the advanced play-by-play analysis at Football Outsiders, Ray Rice has been the best running back in the league this season on a per-play basis. He's third in total rushing value behind Chris Johnson and Steven Jackson, but No. 1 in combined value rushing and receiving.

Like Flacco, Rice has the advantage of being extremely young for a second-year NFL player. He won't turn 23 until after the regular season ends. And like Flacco, Rice looks even more impressive if we only look at similar players to this current season instead of for two years. The most similar single season to Rice's prorated 2009 stats belongs to Roger Craig of the 1985 49ers.

The big reason for the Craig comparison is Rice's extraordinary development as a receiving target. Rice passed his rookie total of 33 receptions just six games into the season. He's on pace to become just the eighth running back since 1978 to have 90 receptions in a season (Larry Centers did it twice). The huge increase in receptions is also a big reason John Settle appears on our list of similar players; Settle went from 11 receptions in his rookie year to 68 in his second season.

However, Settle also serves as an example of why Rice, despite his big season, is not guaranteed to give Baltimore an All-Pro running back for several years. No running back is a sure thing, and the history books are filled with the names of players who faded away after great starts. Settle made the Pro Bowl in 1988 and was out of football by 1991. Barlow and Bennett also flamed out after hot starts. However, most of the players who were similar to Rice can give Ravens fans confidence, especially because Rice's season is probably the best among all these similar years (except perhaps for Craig's).