Passing numbers way up compared to previous years

[SteelFaninBMore]

Normally early in the season, defense has the upper hand as teams look to gel, shake off the rust, get on the same page, etc etc. Not this year. I saw the numbers posted on a Steeler board, and they are pretty amazing.

Week 1 of the 2011 season saw 14 (!) quarterbacks throw for over 300 yards. Three of those went over 400 yards (including a rookie), and one (Brady) threw for 500 yards. That's almost half the league going over 300.

By comparison, here are the stats from the previous 9 seasons:

2011 had 14 300 yard passes, 3 of those over 400, 1 of those over 500
2010 had 3 300 yard passers, 1 of those over 400
2009 had 6 300 yard passers
2008 had 4 300 yard passers
2007 had 4 300 yard passers
2006 had 3 300 yard passers
2005 had 2 300 yard passers
2004 had 4 300 yard passers
2003 had 2 300 yard passers
2002 had 4 300 yard passers

What do you make of this? Does the lockout play a hand? Just a crazy weekend? Or has Goodell's rule changes and emphasis on protecting QBs and WRs finally made an impact?

[wickedsolo]

The league is moving towards a pass-first league, but I think it's more of a product of there not being a lot of great backs anymore. I also think that it is more of an anomally than anything.

[GOTA]

Passing numbers have gotten into the stupid category. I've a lot of talk about how bad Mark Sanchez looked. He completed 59% of his passes for 335 yards with 2 TDs and an 1 interception. In the past fans would have drooled over those numbers.

On the flip side there were just 7 100 yard rushers. Only 4 of those had more than 20 carries. Only 8 players even had 20 or more carries.

Welcome to the Arena Football League...

By the way just how bad is Donovan McNabb if he can't even break 50 yards passing given all this?

[Ravenswintitle]

Another thing is the no huddle / muddle huddle. More teams are just going to the line and getting in position; forcing the D to do the same. Then they make the play call or adjustment but the D really has to get in position.

The huddle is going the way of the dinasour, especially for veteran offenses

[Ravenswintitle]

Just saw an article in USA Today (featuring pic of Suggs after a big sack last Sunday). There were also more sacks (89) in the first NFL week than ever in history.

two sided coin

[GOTA]

Just saw an article in USA Today (featuring pic of Suggs after a big sack last Sunday). There were also more sacks (89) in the first NFL week than ever in history.

two sided coin

If anything that tells you something about sacks. Because teams are able to convert long yardage through the air the sack is starting to mean less. Does Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees care that they it's now 3rd and 15 instead of 3rd and 7? It sure doesn't seem that way. In the past the sack was pass defense. Now it's turning into a loss of down penalty.

[SteelFaninBMore]

Yeah, I'm thinking Week 1 wasn't a fluke.

8 more 300+ yard passers in Week 2. Two of those over 400 yards. And this is with four QBs left to play this week.

Newton: 432
Brady: 423
Rivers: 378
Hasselbeck: 358
Romo: 345
Dalton: 332
Cambell: 323
Rodgers: 308

And I won't include them, but you could throw in Roethlisberger and Stafford, who had 298 and 294 yards respectively, to make it an even 10.

Newton is at 854 yards for the season. The record for most rookie passing yards in a season is 3,739, set by Manning. Netwon only needs to average 206 ypg to break that. He's not going to throw for 400 a week all year, but 200 isn't that high of a bar. I'd say that record is very much in reach.

Brady has already thrown for 940 yards, and it's only Week 2. Brady only needs to average 296 ypg the rest of the year to break Marino's record. That's very doable with the Patriots offense.

Bold Prediction: Marino's record of 5,084 passing yards in a single season gets broken this year. By more than one QB.

[SteelFaninBMore]

11 more over 300 in Week 3, with Rodgers just missing the cut at 297. At least no one went over 400 (highest was Flacco with 389).

Week 1: 8,419 combined passing yards (NFL Record)
Week 2: 8,418 combined passing yards
Week 3: 8,233 combined passing yards

(Numbers from ESPN. Other reports show different numbers, but they're figuring in sack yardage. They're NFL records either way.)

Five quarterbacks are currently on pace to shatter Marino's single-season record of 5,084 yards. Matthew Stafford (5,211), Phillip Rivers (5,221), Cam Newton (5,397), Drew Brees (5,648), and Tom Brady (7,077). I still believe at least two players will break this record this year.

Currently Brady has the best shot. His 1,327 yards in the first three games is an NFL record. He needs to average 289 yards the rest of the season to break the single-season record.

Newton is at 1,012 yards through three games. He needs to average 209 the rest of the way to break Manning's rookie record of 3,739 (which is much more realistic than him coming close to Marino's record).

Of course with more passing, comes more points. So far 2,123 points have been scored through 3 weeks (44 points per contest, and 22 points per team per game). All NFL records.

[Ravenswintitle]

It's almost tough for me to watch the top college games anymore. I mean the best team in the country (bama) uses a model of great D, running game, and pedestrian QB.

[Steel Hop]

If anything that tells you something about sacks. Because teams are able to convert long yardage through the air the sack is starting to mean less. Does Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees care that they it's now 3rd and 15 instead of 3rd and 7? It sure doesn't seem that way. In the past the sack was pass defense. Now it's turning into a loss of down penalty.

Gota,

Good to see you. Looks like Sunspot made the decision for me.

You are right on some of that. One of the things for me why passing yards are up and sacks are up is because of the nature of those units. How many broken pass plays have we seen so far this year like Steve Smith against AZ. How many unblocked DE's have come free this year.

The off-season is where alot of that is worked on including communication and the secondary and OL are two areas that require a ton of communication and all the players being in sync. There was no off-season this year to work on that so you see lots of communications breakdowns that have led to big plays - either big passes or big sacks.

I'd guess as the season goes on, and the weather gets worse, teams will have shored up most of these issues.

[SteelFaninBMore]

After Week 2:

Bold Prediction: Marino's record of 5,084 passing yards in a single season gets broken this year. By more than one QB.

Looking good. Top passers right now:

1. Brady - 4,897 yards - 187 yards from record (1 game left)
2. Brees - 4,780 yards - 304 yards from record (2 games left)

Brady's going to have to play next week to clinch homefield, and it's hard to see him finishing under 200 yards passing.

Hell, I feel very confident that we'll see Brees break the record tonight. He hasn't had a sub-300 yard game since Week 9, and I doubt he struggles tonight against Atlanta. If he doesn't hit 304 tonight, he'll probably be extremely close, and would play next week to try to get a bye (not to mention the division).

I would call both a lock right now. What a crazy season.

[micadrz400]

That was a bold prediction, looks like you will be right. In fact, it was so bold I give you props even if one of them doesn't do it, close enough.

[vinny600]

Wow...good call man. Crazy that after so many years two QB's are probably going to break it. I guess we are in what may be known in the future as the "passing era". I hope it does not keep going like this forever though. I can't imagine football without a major running component, although Dickhead Godell is pushing the game that way.

[SteelFaninBMore]

I guess we are in what may be known in the future as the "passing era".

I think so. I've already seen a few opinions that when Marino's record falls, it won't be as significant because rule changes have opened up the passing game so much since 1984. And maybe that has some merit. But I still have to give Brees credit...he came within a couple dozen yards of the record back in 2008, and now he's got another shot at it.

He'll be the first player to ever post two 5,000+ yard seasons. Not to mention that a TD tonight will put him at 42 straight games with a touchdown pass, only 6 away from breaking the Unitas record, and I've always thought that was the toughest one in football (besides starting 300 straight games, perhaps).

I'm sifting through more of Brees's numbers, and it's amazing what he's done. Outside of single season records and TD streaks, he's also 13th all-time in yards (and should end up in the top 5 with 3-4 more solid years), 11th in TD passes (and could be as high as 9th by the end of tonight), 8th in all-time passer rating, and 2nd in completion percentage (only .1% behind Chad Pennington).

For a long time any talk of "best current QB" was Manning/Brady as 1/1a, and now it's Rodgers. And I'm taking nothing away from those guys, and I'm not saying they don't deserve it...but it's interesting to me the Brees is rarely in the discussion. The Saints better get him a new contract, and quick.

[52decleetzu]

I think so. I've already seen a few opinions that when Marino's record falls, it won't be as significant because rule changes have opened up the passing game so much since 1984. And maybe that has some merit. But I still have to give Brees credit...he came within a couple dozen yards of the record back in 2008, and now he's got another shot at it.

He'll be the first player to ever post two 5,000+ yard seasons. Not to mention that a TD tonight will put him at 42 straight games with a touchdown pass, only 6 away from breaking the Unitas record, and I've always thought that was the toughest one in football (besides starting 300 straight games, perhaps).

I'm sifting through more of Brees's numbers, and it's amazing what he's done. Outside of single season records and TD streaks, he's also 13th all-time in yards (and should end up in the top 5 with 3-4 more solid years), 11th in TD passes (and could be as high as 9th by the end of tonight), 8th in all-time passer rating, and 2nd in completion percentage (only .1% behind Chad Pennington).

For a long time any talk of "best current QB" was Manning/Brady as 1/1a, and now it's Rodgers. And I'm taking nothing away from those guys, and I'm not saying they don't deserve it...but it's interesting to me the Brees is rarely in the discussion. The Saints better get him a new contract, and quick.

I know most people just look at totals on stats, but they can be skewed heavily by opportunities. Average in ANY stat is much more relevant, especially in Brees' case.

For example, when Marino set the record he only had 564 attempts, but averaged 9 yards a reception. Brees on the other hand is averaging almost a full yard less at 8.2 and is on pace for 665 passing attempts for the year.

If Marino had that many attempts, he would have thrown for 5,996 yards.

If you also take that ridiculous attempt number/yards per attempt and put it to Rodgers this year(about 540), Brady in 2007 (578 attempts), or Manning in 2004 (only 497 attempts) you would get similar results around 6,000 yards.

Conversely, if Brees only had 564 attempts with his 8.2 average like Marino did, he would have only passed for 4,624 yards total.

That said I hope he throws for 500 and shows what a joke these rules have made the passing game.

[52decleetzu]

Well it looks like AdvancedNFLstats took a look at Brees vs Marino in their latest article.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011...rsus-1984.html

On Monday night we saw history. Drew Brees eclipsed Dan Marino's record of 5,084 total passing yards on a late-game touchdown pass to Darren Sproles. Regular readers know that I'm no fan of most ever or least ever records because they're usually just trivia that end up giving the word 'stats' a bad name. Readers also know that total passing yards is not a particularly meaningful way of measuring a quarterback's skill. But it's hard to let the occasion pass without taking note.

We can use some statistical tools to get a feel for how outstanding each season was. Drawing the line at the top 30 passers in both seasons, we can calculate the number of standard deviations Marino and Brees stand above the season average. Marino's 1984 was 2.4 standard deviations above average, while Brees' 2011 (so far) is 1.9 standard deviations above average. Marino achieved his numbers on 564 attempts while Brees has 622 attempts, and counting. Brees has 13 interceptions compared to Marino's 17. According to PFR's Adjusted Net Yards Per Attempt, which factors in yards, attempts, interceptions, and touchdown passes, Marino beats Brees 8.9 to 8.0.

Here is another article on the difference between passing games between eras and how they adjusted the numbers...

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010...-analysis.html

[Captain Silver]

To me it goes back to DB's getting flagged for as little as using harsh language on receivers.