Ray Lewis- Giving Him the Tough Talk

**JMcNulty** · 12-28-2011, 02:04 AM

It really is a tough call, and it is close to that point where the extra step he gains by the study and knowledge of the D is being lost to more than a step of physical limitation. There have been plays this year that just wouldn't happen to him in the past. If it is the injury, hopefully a bye will help heal it up.

If he really is slower though as much as everyone here wants to think his ego will not let him sit a few plays, I think it would. We all know he wants that 2nd ring, winning one for the teammates that have been here for a while, the ego boost of going out a champion. Even if he sits on a few 3rd and 8s it will still be "Ray's Defense".

The question is, do the Ravens have schemes where the defense is better off with someone else at MLB or is Ray still the best option a step slower but adding that coordinator on the field value. Personally I believe the value he adds in play recognition against the playoff QBs likely to be seen puts the team in better position to make big plays or make fewer big mistakes, even at the risk of more 3rd down conversions

**BcRaven** · 12-28-2011, 02:16 AM

Originally Posted by JMcNulty

It really is a tough call, and it is close to that point where the extra step he gains by the study and knowledge of the D is being lost to more than a step of physical limitation. There have been plays this year that just wouldn't happen to him in the past. If it is the injury, hopefully a bye will help heal it up.

If he really is slower though as much as everyone here wants to think his ego will not let him sit a few plays, I think it would. We all know he wants that 2nd ring, winning one for the teammates that have been here for a while, the ego boost of going out a champion. Even if he sits on a few 3rd and 8s it will still be "Ray's Defense".

The question is, do the Ravens have schemes where the defense is better off with someone else at MLB or is Ray still the best option a step slower but adding that coordinator on the field value. Personally I believe the value he adds in play recognition against the playoff QBs likely to be seen puts the team in better position to make big plays or make fewer big mistakes, even at the risk of more 3rd down conversions

Solid 1st post. Welcome to the board... Bc

**RAVENOUS52** · 12-28-2011, 05:06 AM

It's almost time for Ngata Another Suggs to receive a Tough Talk for not backing up his opinion with facts.

Ray has missed a few tackles but in the NFL it happens and has been a rising trend with the new rules that favor the offensive player.

I fully trust what my eyes have seen from Ray during his return from the toe injury, that he will be just fine against whichever teams we play.

**arnie_uk** · 12-28-2011, 07:01 AM

Lewis- 19/27, 70.4%, 229 yards, 119 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 PD, 80.6 QB Rating - 12.05 yds per COMPLETION, 6.2 of Which is YAC per Completion.

EDIT RAY LEWIS: the majority of the damage done vs Ray has been in the last 2 games, since his toe injury

Prior to that he was:

14/21, 66.7%, 154 Yards, 89 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 PD, 68.35 QB Rating

And the majority of that damage was on 1 play in Week 1 (31 yard pass to Hines Ward w/ 16 YAC)

Willis- 38/56, 67.9%, 333 yards, 204 YAC, 2 TD, 1 int, 12 PD, 87.9 QB Rating - 8.76 Per COMPLETION, 5.37 YAC per Comp

Urlacher- 37/52, 71.2%, 365 yards, 222 YAC, 2 TD, 3 INT, 7 PD, 79.4 QB Rating -9.86 per comp, 6 yac pc

Derrick Johnson- 35/49, 71.4%, 379 Yards, 306 YAC, 3 TD, 2 int, 9 PD, 97.2 QB Rating -10.83 pc, 8.74 yac pc

Cushing- 33/44. 75%, 307 yards, 213 YAC, 1 TD, 2 INT, 5 PD, 82.3 QB Rating - 9.3 per comp, 6.45 yac pc

I will update this soon with ray lewis compared to our other ILBs which will give a better indication of whether he shouldnt play on third down

edit some more

Dansby: 33/50, 66%, 333 Yards, 232 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 76.5 QB Rating

D'Qwell Jackson: 26/33, 78.8%, 285 Yards, 117 Yac, 2 TD, 1 INT, 110.2 QB Rating

Paul Posluszny: 33/49, 67.3%, 387 Yards, 114 YAC, 3 TD, 2 INT, 94.5 QB Rating

Sean Lee: 46/59, 78%, 466 Yards, 324 YAC, 3 TD, 4 INT, 88.3 QB Rating

Desmond Bishop: 43/53, 81.1%, 522 Yards, 259 YAC, 2 TDs, 0 int, 120.3 QB Rating

Lawrence Timmons: 18/23, 78.3%, 191 Yards, 140 YAC, 2 TD, 1 INT, 112.2 QB Rating

**HoustonRaven** · 12-28-2011, 07:11 AM

Originally Posted by JMcNulty

It really is a tough call, and it is close to that point where the extra step he gains by the study and knowledge of the D is being lost to more than a step of physical limitation. There have been plays this year that just wouldn't happen to him in the past. If it is the injury, hopefully a bye will help heal it up.

If he really is slower though as much as everyone here wants to think his ego will not let him sit a few plays, I think it would. We all know he wants that 2nd ring, winning one for the teammates that have been here for a while, the ego boost of going out a champion. Even if he sits on a few 3rd and 8s it will still be "Ray's Defense".

The question is, do the Ravens have schemes where the defense is better off with someone else at MLB or is Ray still the best option a step slower but adding that coordinator on the field value. Personally I believe the value he adds in play recognition against the playoff QBs likely to be seen puts the team in better position to make big plays or make fewer big mistakes, even at the risk of more 3rd down conversions

Agree with everything.

Welcome to the boards! Can you get The Bunk and Rawls to start posting, too?

**bmorecareful** · 12-28-2011, 08:21 AM

Originally Posted by arnie_uk

Lewis- 19/27, 70.4%, 229 yards, 119 YAC, 0 TD, 1 INT, 6 PD, 80.6 QB Rating - 12.05 yds per COMPLETION, 6.2 of Which is YAC per Completion.

Willis- 38/56, 67.9%, 333 yards, 204 YAC, 2 TD, 1 int, 12 PD, 87.9 QB Rating - 8.76 Per COMPLETION, 5.37 YAC per Comp

Urlacher- 37/52, 71.2%, 365 yards, 222 YAC, 2 TD, 3 INT, 7 PD, 79.4 QB Rating -9.86 per comp, 6 yac pc

Derrick Johnson- 35/49, 71.4%, 379 Yards, 306 YAC, 3 TD, 2 int, 9 PD, 97.2 QB Rating -10.83 pc, 8.74 yac pc

Cushing- 33/44. 75%, 307 yards, 213 YAC, 1 TD, 2 INT, 5 PD, 82.3 QB Rating - 9.3 per comp, 6.45 yac pc

I will update this soon with ray lewis compared to our other ILBs which will give a better indication of whether he shouldnt play on third down

These are good statistics, thanks for providing them.

This jives well with what I have seen, which is that Ray is often positioned well to defend a play (large number of PDs per target) and still tackles well to limit YAC (even if he's missed some as of late). That's the mental/technique aspect of Ray's game, which is at a very, very high level.

However, if Ray is asked to cover somebody more than 5 or 10 yards beyond the LOS, he can't run with anybody (leads to high yards per completion). That's the physical aspect of Ray's game, which is obviously not at as high a level.

All in all, I think Ray should come out on 3rd downs. On 1st and 2nd down, the Ravens are benefiting from Ray's knowledge because the other team has access to so much of their playbook. On 3rd down and especially 3rd and long (when the Ravens sub package comes onto the field) the offensive playbook is limited and athleticism is a little more important than pure play recognition. Obviously there's more to it than that, but it's worth pointing out.

At some point you do reach a break-even point where no matter how otherwordly Ray's instincts and football acumen are, he just shouldn't be on the field because he can't play at the needed level. I think we're getting close, especially if what we've seen of Ray since returning from injury is what we're going to get (hoping that's not true).

**HoustonRaven** · 12-28-2011, 09:20 AM

Originally Posted by Ngata Nother Suggs

All I can provide is a comment I'm sure everyone heard Harbaugh make about Ray pretty much deciding what Ray wants to do. I probably worded what I said wrong. It is more of a presumption that if the Ravens took Ray off the field on third down he would most likely throw a fit.

Some humble advice to you then ... That's a debate fallacy then, provided you've taken something Ray has said and taken it out of context to suit this argument.

From someone who has been here a while, you may want to up your game. Throwing stuff to the message board wall to see if it sticks is something for The Sun.

You're going to get much further around here with direct quotes that are sourced -- and that's not directed at you but for everyone's eyes.

**arnie_uk** · 12-28-2011, 12:09 PM

None of this is my own work. Its from a member on another site.

seems to be the popular notion that Ray Lewis is picked on by opposing QBs when in coverage and has been the biggest "liability" when he is out there.

I wanted to test this theory and here is what I came up with:

Basic Coverage Stats
Ayanbadejo- 15/23, 65.2%, 98 Yards, 77 YAC, 0 TD, 0 int, 1 pd, 74.2 QB Rating (180 pass coverage snaps)

Ellerbe- 8/10, 80%, 86 yards, 55 YAC, 0 td, 0 int, 0 pd, 102.5 QB Rating (92 pass coverage snaps)

McClain- 25/35, 71.4%, 318 Yards, 166 YAC, 1 td, 1 int, 5 pd, 97.1 QB Rating (296 Pass coverage snaps)

Lewis-19/27. 70.4%, 229 Yards, 119 YAC, 0 Tds, 1 int, 6 pd, 80.6 QB Ratings (333 Pass Coverage snaps)

Completions per coverage snap
Ayanbadejo- 180 coverage snaps/15 completions = 1 reception every 12 coverage snap

Ellerbe- 92 snaps/8 receptions = 1 reception every 11.5 coverage snap

McClain- 296 snaps/25 receptions = 1 reception every 11.84 coverage snap

Lewis-333 snaps/19 receptions = 1 Reception every 17.52 coverage snaps

Times targeted per coverage snap
Ayanbadejo- 180 snaps/23 targets = 1 target every 7.82 coverage snaps

Ellerbe- 92 snaps/10 targers = 1 target every 9.2 coverage snaps

McClain- 296 snaps/35 targets= 1 target every 8.46 coverage snaps

Lewis- 333 snaps/27 Targets = 1 Target every 12.3 coverage snaps

So Lewis gets targeted the least per coverage snap by opposing QBs and gives up the fewest receptions per coverage snap yet he is the "biggest" liability on the field?

Notes
*Ellerbe does have a small sample size
*Ayanbadejo has not been asked to cover a WR
*Lewis has given up 2 receptions to WR that skew his numbers (Ward-31 yards/16 Yac in week 1, Cribbs-23 yards/9 YAC in week 16

I like the work Ayanbadejo is doing and would continue to use him in his current role BUT Lewis hardly being "picked on". I also would continue to rush Lewis since he has graded out positively for ILB pass rushing wise w/ 10 QB Disruptions in 71 pass rush opportunities. The average for his position is a tick under 1 disruption every 8 pass rushes.

**52decleetzu** · 12-28-2011, 12:56 PM

Originally Posted by AntiMoon

Ray was having a Pro Bowl season before he got hurt and looks washed up since coming back. I find it hard to believe it's a coincidence.

Funny how we heard nothing about taking Ray off the field. How he was done. Washed up. Hurting our pass rush(now THAT is a new one alright!) after week 8. When we were winning and playing better.

Just a coincidence I am sure.

**arnie_uk** · 12-28-2011, 12:58 PM

i heard if on other forums prior to his injury, but more so now, but i think its clear hes still carry the injury

**52decleetzu** · 12-28-2011, 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by arnie_uk

None of this is my own work. Its from a member on another site.

seems to be the popular notion that Ray Lewis is picked on by opposing QBs when in coverage and has been the biggest "liability" when he is out there.

I wanted to test this theory and here is what I came up with:

Basic Coverage Stats
Ayanbadejo- 15/23, 65.2%, 98 Yards, 77 YAC, 0 TD, 0 int, 1 pd, 74.2 QB Rating (180 pass coverage snaps)

Ellerbe- 8/10, 80%, 86 yards, 55 YAC, 0 td, 0 int, 0 pd, 102.5 QB Rating (92 pass coverage snaps)

McClain- 25/35, 71.4%, 318 Yards, 166 YAC, 1 td, 1 int, 5 pd, 97.1 QB Rating (296 Pass coverage snaps)

Lewis-19/27. 70.4%, 229 Yards, 119 YAC, 0 Tds, 1 int, 6 pd, 80.6 QB Ratings (333 Pass Coverage snaps)

Completions per coverage snap
Ayanbadejo- 180 coverage snaps/15 completions = 1 reception every 12 coverage snap

Ellerbe- 92 snaps/8 receptions = 1 reception every 11.5 coverage snap

McClain- 296 snaps/25 receptions = 1 reception every 11.84 coverage snap

Lewis-333 snaps/19 receptions = 1 Reception every 17.52 coverage snaps

Times targeted per coverage snap
Ayanbadejo- 180 snaps/23 targets = 1 target every 7.82 coverage snaps

Ellerbe- 92 snaps/10 targers = 1 target every 9.2 coverage snaps

McClain- 296 snaps/35 targets= 1 target every 8.46 coverage snaps

Lewis- 333 snaps/27 Targets = 1 Target every 12.3 coverage snaps

So Lewis gets targeted the least per coverage snap by opposing QBs and gives up the fewest receptions per coverage snap yet he is the "biggest" liability on the field?

Notes
*Ellerbe does have a small sample size
*Ayanbadejo has not been asked to cover a WR
*Lewis has given up 2 receptions to WR that skew his numbers (Ward-31 yards/16 Yac in week 1, Cribbs-23 yards/9 YAC in week 16

I like the work Ayanbadejo is doing and would continue to use him in his current role BUT Lewis hardly being "picked on". I also would continue to rush Lewis since he has graded out positively for ILB pass rushing wise w/ 10 QB Disruptions in 71 pass rush opportunities. The average for his position is a tick under 1 disruption every 8 pass rushes.

Whoooooaaa don't let the FACTS get in the way of chapter 18 of the Ray Lewis witch hunt!!

I don't play fantasy but around week 10 I heard that the Ravens were number 1 against the TE. You know one of the guys who Ray Lewis is sometimes on in coverage.

Keep em coming arnie!!! Post more!

**arnie_uk** · 12-28-2011, 01:05 PM

i think that should be enough... hes by far the best ILB at coverage in our team. So drop him? who for? Maybe you could argue BA, but if you make a habit of swapping him in and leaving out Ray teams will notice this and run right up the gut where BA is too small abd we could get gashed on a run..

As stated in earlier stats he is also better than most other "elite" ILBs in the league on coverage, and his stats have took a dramatic hit since his toe injury, prior to that he was pretty much the best in the league. So to me, it shows he is still carrying his injury and you could say, maybe take him out on some plays to let him rest, but not because of preformance

**iggyman555** · 12-28-2011, 01:11 PM

Originally Posted by arnie_uk

None of this is my own work. Its from a member on another site.

seems to be the popular notion that Ray Lewis is picked on by opposing QBs when in coverage and has been the biggest "liability" when he is out there.

I wanted to test this theory and here is what I came up with:

Basic Coverage Stats
Ayanbadejo- 15/23, 65.2%, 98 Yards, 77 YAC, 0 TD, 0 int, 1 pd, 74.2 QB Rating (180 pass coverage snaps)

Ellerbe- 8/10, 80%, 86 yards, 55 YAC, 0 td, 0 int, 0 pd, 102.5 QB Rating (92 pass coverage snaps)

McClain- 25/35, 71.4%, 318 Yards, 166 YAC, 1 td, 1 int, 5 pd, 97.1 QB Rating (296 Pass coverage snaps)

Lewis-19/27. 70.4%, 229 Yards, 119 YAC, 0 Tds, 1 int, 6 pd, 80.6 QB Ratings (333 Pass Coverage snaps)

Completions per coverage snap
Ayanbadejo- 180 coverage snaps/15 completions = 1 reception every 12 coverage snap

Ellerbe- 92 snaps/8 receptions = 1 reception every 11.5 coverage snap

McClain- 296 snaps/25 receptions = 1 reception every 11.84 coverage snap

Lewis-333 snaps/19 receptions = 1 Reception every 17.52 coverage snaps

Times targeted per coverage snap
Ayanbadejo- 180 snaps/23 targets = 1 target every 7.82 coverage snaps

Ellerbe- 92 snaps/10 targers = 1 target every 9.2 coverage snaps

McClain- 296 snaps/35 targets= 1 target every 8.46 coverage snaps

Lewis- 333 snaps/27 Targets = 1 Target every 12.3 coverage snaps

So Lewis gets targeted the least per coverage snap by opposing QBs and gives up the fewest receptions per coverage snap yet he is the "biggest" liability on the field?

Notes
*Ellerbe does have a small sample size
*Ayanbadejo has not been asked to cover a WR
*Lewis has given up 2 receptions to WR that skew his numbers (Ward-31 yards/16 Yac in week 1, Cribbs-23 yards/9 YAC in week 16

I like the work Ayanbadejo is doing and would continue to use him in his current role BUT Lewis hardly being "picked on". I also would continue to rush Lewis since he has graded out positively for ILB pass rushing wise w/ 10 QB Disruptions in 71 pass rush opportunities. The average for his position is a tick under 1 disruption every 8 pass rushes.

goood stuffff!

**Jsmoove** · 12-28-2011, 01:25 PM

I do not believe this defense is better without Ray, we played some pretty shitty teams in rays absence or we played teams that ran a lot like san fran which played directly to our strengths. Ray may have slowed down but on 3rd downs when tom brady has the ball in his hands I would much rather have him in there instead of ellerbe or mcclain.

**mommathurgoesthatman** · 12-28-2011, 01:30 PM

If they bench ray lewis they should have did it 3yrs ago when he got slower and couldnt cover anybody downfield. Ray lewis is grandfather in so let him play it out. Yes he is slow but he makes up for it in play regnition and he knows the defense so well. He shoots gaps all the time to make plays. I think we are better with him on the field. Live by the sword die by the sword

**wickedsolo** · 12-28-2011, 02:02 PM

I think that no one can argue that while Ray was out the entire defense looked a lot quicker and a lot faster. Guys were flying to the ball and you cannot doubt McClain and Ellerbe's quickness and speed. However, none of that means better.

The problem is there is no way to make up for Ray's experience, knowledge, and anticipation.

**grandraven** · 12-28-2011, 03:15 PM

Ray has only been back 2 games since his injury. Ray will be fine.

**edgecrusher** · 12-28-2011, 03:21 PM

At some point Ray will need to come out. I think that time is now, but I know many Ravens fans have a viscerally negative reaction to such a concept. For some folks, Ray Lewis will have to retire or take himself off the field before they move on.