Advanced NFL Stats crushes the Sun, calls out Preston

**52decleetzu** · 01-17-2012, 05:57 PM

I feel like the writer and I were separated at birth.

Just stumbled upon this making my rounds...

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012...ysis.html#more

Ray Rice did much worse. He was stuffed on several critical goal line plays. And on a 2nd and 1 to seal the win, he was stopped short of the marker. Rice finished with -0.15 WPA and -6.3 EPA. These lunatics at the Baltimore Sun who week-in and week-out clamor for more carries by Rice, who cite fallacious 'when Rice gets 25 carries the Ravens win' stats, need to get a clue. (I'm looking at you Mike Preston.) A long time ago I came to the conclusion that most sports desks at our major city papers don't have the first idea about the sport on which they claim to be so authoritative, but the Baltimore Sun is in a league of its own. Those guys seem like nice folks, but...they have a duty to educate themselves. It's their job. As it is, they're no better than the average fan with his harebrained opinions.

Hallelujah!! It is about time someone said it!!

**wickedsolo** · 01-17-2012, 06:09 PM

No way Preston knows what that website is...let all.e ever read it.

He played at Towson man. Duh...

**cbaywolf** · 01-17-2012, 06:28 PM

I said the same thing in a post a few weeks ago- the stat that the Ravens win when Rice carries the ball over 20 times is pure stupidity. Rice gets 20+ carries *because* we are winning, and running the clock out the majority of times . Granted he may have a lot to do with why we're ahead in a lot of those games as well- but there were a few games when he was running into brick walls this year, and while you don't abandon the run totally- you can't keep running 60% of the time when you're not gaining yards against a stout front. Screen passess and good short pass combinations can do the exact same thing- but we usually don't do that very often for some reason.

**Raveninwoodlawn** · 01-17-2012, 06:37 PM

That's a pretty funny call out....lmao

**ballhawk** · 01-17-2012, 06:38 PM

If the premise of that article is to say that ray rice is overrated, I would have to fervently disagree. If they are just taking the opportunity to bash Preston, im cool with that.

**52decleetzu** · 01-17-2012, 06:44 PM

Originally Posted by ballhawk

If the premise of that article is to say that ray rice is overrated, I would have to fervently disagree. If they are just taking the opportunity to bash Preston, im cool with that.

The premise of the article was a review of the game using their type of statistical analysis. It wasn't about Ray Rice or any other individual, they were just mentioned in the review of the game.

Mentioned in a way that is hilarious in regards to our local hacks.

I have to wonder if the writer has some Baltimore ties, that was pretty direct and specific, and I doubt anyone who didn't have a connection would have the knowledge to make a statement like that. Actually now that I think about it they have a partnership with the Washington Post, so maybe that is the connection to the area.

**goodandfast** · 01-17-2012, 06:50 PM

Originally Posted by ballhawk

If the premise of that article is to say that ray rice is overrated, I would have to fervently disagree. If they are just taking the opportunity to bash Preston, im cool with that.

Read the article.

He says that Rice did far worse than Arian Foster. No one is saying that RR is overrated. RR DID have a bad game on Sunday though. Case in point: if he follows Leach and Yanda on the 4th and Goal run he walks into the endzone untouched. His vision was terrible and the numbers show that. He's not getting beat up this week though.

**lovefootball** · 01-17-2012, 06:52 PM

The run opens up the pass. Early success at running has ruined the game for the opposing team. The Ravens have not been defined as a total run team which gives the opposing teams defense problems. The Ravens geared up for the pass and let Foster run. Thats why he rushed for over 130 yards. Texans gave up on the run, started passing and the rest is history.Rookie QB was no match for the Ravens secondary. Pats have to guess at what the Ravens offense will do, hoping Joe has a bad day passing so they can stop the run. Sound familiar(Broncos vs steelers)? Belicheck will make changes after seeing what the Ravens have success with. Cam needs to counter to what BB does. Eight in the box=pass. 4-3 = run. Pats have to have a great defensive day to win. Preston is a clown to the fans who know what they see on the field. His stirring up the pot is old news, but he is called out in this article. Bouchette did a article two days ago about how passing is the answer to playing in the playoff. He suggests going all passing and don't worry about the defense. He uses the Saints and Packers as the team to model themselves after. Boy was he wrong big time.

**festivus** · 01-17-2012, 07:02 PM

Love it. Thanks for sharing.

**mmi16** · 01-17-2012, 07:09 PM

If Rice gains 4-5-6 yards on a carry - he gets more carries and the chains are moved. If he gets 0-1-2 yards a carry - the carries go away and the chains don't move unless the passing attack clicks. Simple.

**Captain Silver** · 01-18-2012, 06:20 AM

Anyone that calls out that fraud of a writer is okay in my book.

**HKusp** · 01-18-2012, 06:48 AM

Originally Posted by lovefootball

The run opens up the pass. Early success at running has ruined the game for the opposing team. The Ravens have not been defined as a total run team which gives the opposing teams defense problems. The Ravens geared up for the pass and let Foster run. Thats why he rushed for over 130 yards. Texans gave up on the run, started passing and the rest is history.Rookie QB was no match for the Ravens secondary. Pats have to guess at what the Ravens offense will do, hoping Joe has a bad day passing so they can stop the run. Sound familiar(Broncos vs steelers)? Belicheck will make changes after seeing what the Ravens have success with. Cam needs to counter to what BB does. Eight in the box=pass. 4-3 = run. Pats have to have a great defensive day to win. Preston is a clown to the fans who know what they see on the field. His stirring up the pot is old news, but he is called out in this article. Bouchette did a article two days ago about how passing is the answer to playing in the playoff. He suggests going all passing and don't worry about the defense. He uses the Saints and Packers as the team to model themselves after. Boy was he wrong big time.

Excellent post.

**alien bird** · 01-18-2012, 07:24 AM

Originally Posted by 52decleetzu

I have to wonder if the writer has some Baltimore ties, that was pretty direct and specific, and I doubt anyone who didn't have a connection would have the knowledge to make a statement like that. Actually now that I think about it they have a partnership with the Washington Post, so maybe that is the connection to the area.

Wonder no more. Brian Burke, the founder of that site, lives in Reston, Virginia, but grew up in Baltimore, went to Towson High School, then attended the Naval Academy. It's all there on the website.

**edtude** · 01-18-2012, 07:30 AM

Originally Posted by goodandfast

Read the article.

He says that Rice did far worse than Arian Foster. No one is saying that RR is overrated. RR DID have a bad game on Sunday though. Case in point: if he follows Leach and Yanda on the 4th and Goal run he walks into the endzone untouched. His vision was terrible and the numbers show that. He's not getting beat up this week though.

Ray Rice still has a major problem in running North/South! He cuts back far too much instead of just getting what is in front of him

**HoustonRaven** · 01-18-2012, 07:35 AM

Yeah, he calls out Preston and I think the majority of us here feel that is long overdue ....

But what did he follow it up with? We DO win more when Rice is more involved. And I am no on board that Rice had a bad game as much as I am on board with the Texans D just had an amazing game.

**pslholder96** · 01-18-2012, 07:43 AM

Originally Posted by edtude

Ray Rice still has a major problem in running North/South! He cuts back far too much instead of just getting what is in front of him

Cuts back way too much?? Why do you think the Ravens studied houston zone run blocking scheme last off season? To create cutback lanes and spring Rice free. It appears you make this comment based on last week's game alone and yes he had a bad day but to categorize this as a trend is way off the mark.

**Mwjergs** · 01-18-2012, 07:48 AM

I wonder if anyone read Preston's recent Q & A. He seemed a bit chippy in response to a question about calling out Ed Reed and Ray Lewis before the playoffs.

He basically said that he asks the tough questions that his colleagues won't ask. He doesn't care he has a job to do - blah blah blah.

I found it pretty funny.

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/r...,1131486.story

**edtude** · 01-18-2012, 07:54 AM

Originally Posted by pslholder96

Cuts back way too much?? Why do you think the Ravens studied houston zone run blocking scheme last off season? To create cutback lanes and spring Rice free. It appears you make this comment based on last week's game alone and yes he had a bad day but to categorize this as a trend is way off the mark.

Hardly do I base it on Sundays game. Every back worth their salt believes that they can juke the defenders out of their spikes and gain more yards. The wise ones realize when it is time to try and when it is time to get what is in front of you and get back to the huddle. Ray still does not grasp that concept. Barry Sanders he is not.

**RavnFreek** · 01-18-2012, 07:55 AM

as said before, I have no idea who this guy is, nor have I ever visited that web site. But if he bashes that fat POS Preston i'm all for it.

**Dave Lap** · 01-18-2012, 08:36 AM

Originally Posted by cbaywolf

I said the same thing in a post a few weeks ago- the stat that the Ravens win when Rice carries the ball over 20 times is pure stupidity. Rice gets 20+ carries *because* we are winning, and running the clock out the majority of times . Granted he may have a lot to do with why we're ahead in a lot of those games as well- but there were a few games when he was running into brick walls this year, and while you don't abandon the run totally- you can't keep running 60% of the time when you're not gaining yards against a stout front. Screen passess and good short pass combinations can do the exact same thing- but we usually don't do that very often for some reason.

Exactly, many fans and certain writers, cough cough, cite those Rice run stats/Ravens winning percentage like they were scripture, totally ignoring the fact that we run more when we already have a lead in order to eat clock.

They believe that all we have to do is run Ray Rice, regardless of how successful he is, in order to win.