If the Ravens can't get Vontaze Burfict...

[JAB1985]

Going back to 1999 here are the MLB's drafted in round 1:

1999
Andy Katzenmoyer, Patriots, 28th overall (Bust)
Al Wilson, Denver Broncos, 31st overall (Solid player)

*Mike Peterson was taken in round 2, Dat Nguyen was taken in round 3, and Eric Barton was taken in round 5. You could argue that these three were better than both Katzenmoyer and Wilson and cost a fraction of what a 1st round pick would have been.

2000
LaVarr Arrington, Redskins, #2 overall (Solid, but never great)
Brian Urlacher, Bears, #9 overall (Potential HOF'er, muli Pro-Bowler and All Pro)
Rob Morris, Colts, 28th overall (Average player, not 1st round value)
Keith Bullock, Titans, 30th overall (Solid player for a long time, worth the value)

*Marcus Washington (2nd round), Jeff Ulbrich (3rd round), Nai'il Diggs (4th round), Dhani Jones (6th round), & Adalius Thomas (6th round) were all taken in the same draft and played MLB and OLB in some respects. Other than Brian Urlacher, all of these guys were just as effective as their 1st round counterparts, some more so.

2001
Dan Morgan, Panther, 11th overall (Very good when healthy)

*Morlon Greenwood (3rd round), Edgerton Hartwell (4th round), Antonio Pierce (undrafted),

2002
Napoleon Harris, Raiders, 23rd overall (Bust)
Robert Thomas, Rams, 31st overall (Bust)

*Ben Leber (3rd), Will Witherspoon (3rd), Akin Ayodele (3rd), Kevin Bentley (4th), David Thornton (4th), Larry Foote (4th), Andra Davis (5th), Scott Fujita (5th), DD Lewis (undrafted), Bart Scott (undrafted).

2003
Nick Barnett, Packers, 29th overall (Solid player, never great)

* EJ Henderson (2nd), Pisa Tinoisamoa (2nd), Kawika Mitchell (2nd), Bradie James (4th), Mario Haggan (7th), Tracy White (undrafted).

2004
Jonathan Vilma, Jets, 12th overall (Very good player)
DJ Williams, Broncos, 17th overall (Very good player)

*Karlos Dansby (2nd), Daryl Smith (2nd), Keyaron Fox (3rd), Brandon Chillar (4th).

2005
Thomas Davis, Panthers, 14th overall (Talented, never healthy, bust)
Derrick Johnson, Chiefs, 15th overall (Solid, but took 6 years to really reach potential)

* Barrett Ruud (2nd), Kevin Burnett (2nd), Lofa Tatupu (2nd), Kirk Morrison (3rd), & Chase Blackburn (undrafted).

2006
AJ Hawk, Packers, 5th overall (Solid, but not Top 5 worthy)

* DeMecco Ryans (2nd), D'Qwell Jackson (2nd), Rocky McIntosh (2nd), Thomas Howard (2nd), Stephen Tulloch (4th).

2007
Patrick Willis, Niners, 11th overall (Arguably the best MLB currently in the NFL, potential HOF'er when career is over)
Lawrence Timmons, Steelers, 15th overall (Solid player, not worth of 1st round status yet)
Jon Beason, Panthers, 25th overall (Excellent player, hard time staying healthy)

* Paul Posluszny (2nd), David Harris (2nd), Justin Durrant (2nd), Quincy Black (3rd), Stewart Bradley (3rd), Desmond Bishop (6th), Brandon Siler (7th).

2008
Jerrod Mayo, Pats, 10th overall (Solid player. Worth the top pick.)

*Curtis Lofton (2nd), Dan Connor (3rd), Jonathan Goff (5th), Joe Mays (6th), David Vobora (7th), Jameel McClain (undrafted), Gary Guyton (undrafted), Wesley Woodyard (undrafted).

2009
Brian Cushing, Texans, 15th overall (3 years later and he's one of the top MLB's in the NFL)

*James Laurinaitis (2nd), Rey Maualuga (2nd), Jasper Brinkley (5th), Zack Follett (7th), Jovan Belcher (undrafted), Dannell Ellerbe (undrafted).

2010
Rolando McClain, Raiders, 8th overall (Solid, off field concerns)

*Darryl Washington (2nd), Sean Lee (2nd), Brandon Spikes (2nd), Pat Angerer (2nd), Donald Butler (3rd), Navarro Bowman (3rd), Perry Riley (4th), Jamar Chaney (7th), Dan Fletcher (undrafted).

2011
No First Round MLB's Taken

*Bruce Carter (2nd), Akeem Ayers (2nd), Kelvin Sheppard (3rd), Mason Foster (3rd), Colin McCarthy (4th), Casey Matthews (4th), Quan Sturdivant (6th), Greg Jones (6th).

So, in 13 years you have arguably 5 MLB's taken in round 1 that have met or exceeded their value, 6 who were solid players and arguably met their value, but never exceeded it, and 7 MLB prospects who were flat out busts or severly underplayed in respect to their draft position.

Like RB, unless the guy is something very special like a Brian Cushing or a Jerrod Mayo, the value of MLB's just aren't there anymore. Just look at last year's draft. NO middle linebackers taken in round 1 even though Greg Jones, Casey Matthews, Kelvin Sheppard, Bruce Carter, and Quan Sturdivant were all touted as having 1st round talent.

Now, Hightower is one of those guys where I think a GM is going to fall in love with his measurables. The guy is bigger than some DL'men and moves really well. He tackles well. He's smart. He's got decent lateral quickness. He sheds blockers well. And finally, he's got 3 years of experience in an NFL style 3-4 defense. Luke Kuechly may be the best overall MLB in this class, but he doesn't have the upside that Hightower has. If Hightower runs well at the combine and displays good burst and agility, he could propel himself into the top 15 easily.

Thanks. Seems to me theres typically one, maybe two at most, taken in the top 15 after that, youre looking at the end of the round or typically 2nd round for the bulk of the top players at the position. So ravens should have a good choice available, and may even trade back since they dont have their 4th rounder.

[GOTA]

He's a good player, but when you look at that draft class is he really better (or THAT much better) than Poz, David Harris, or Desmond Bishop? I don't think so and what's funny is that both Harris and Bishop have excelled in a 3-4 scheme, so it's not like we can say that Timmons cannot be compared to these other guys from the same draft year.

Can't argue against that logic. Looking at it that way you're right

[Raveninwoodlawn]

I really like Burfict and would be ecstatic if we were able to get him.

Dude is everything we've been lacking at ILB for the lasat couple years...he would be the most athletic LB we have by far and he has good instincts to go with them...just have to learn to funnel that aggression appropriately on the field.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

Wicked, you really don't think Timmons is not worthy of being taken in round 1? I know he's moved around a lot and not been purely a MLB but he's been a very good player. I think he was the last good 1st round pick the Steelers had.

He's a good player, but when you look at that draft class is he really better (or THAT much better) than Poz, David Harris, or Desmond Bishop? I don't think so and what's funny is that both Harris and Bishop have excelled in a 3-4 scheme, so it's not like we can say that Timmons cannot be compared to these other guys from the same draft year.

I cetainly think Timmons is better than Poz and Bishop...a LOT better. He allows Pitt to do a lot of things with thier D as not only is he physical and a good tackler, he is a very good coverage LB. And he is very versatile as he can play OLB in the 3-4 as well.

I don't think Poz or Bishop are in his class at all.

I certainly can understand Harris being up there and even better to a degree, but Timmons is a hell of a player. Just the fact that Pitt, who hardly ever overpay for their own guys and don't hesitate to let them walk, re-signed him to that huge deal should tell you how good he is.

[wickedsolo]

I cetainly think Timmons is better than Poz and Bishop...a LOT better. He allows Pitt to do a lot of things with thier D as not only is he physical and a good tackler, he is a very good coverage LB. And he is very versatile as he can play OLB in the 3-4 as well.

I don't think Poz or Bishop are in his class at all.

I certainly can understand Harris being up there and even better to a degree, but Timmons is a hell of a player. Just the fact that Pitt, who hardly ever overpay for their own guys and don't hesitate to let them walk, re-signed him to that huge deal should tell you how good he is.

I'm not arguing that he is a good player.

The question was more along the lines of why the value of MLB has dropped in the last couple of years. Timmons was picked 15th overall...10 spots above Jon Beason and several spots/rounds above Poz, Harris, and Bishop. If a team who needs multiple things is starting at a MLB with a top 20 pick do they take him? Is he really worth a top 20 pick? History has shown that you can get starting quality MLB's from round 2 on and they are A LOT cheaper to sign and carry a fraction of the expectation weight that 1st round picks do.

If you go to any Steeler board you will find multiple folks who don't think Timmons is worth the 15th overall pick that he was taken at.

[Dirt1]

Absolutely a valid point dude.

In the Navy if one were to have that type of insubordination they wouldn't be long for the uniform, so to speak.

This is why I think it's going to be imperative for this guy to be straightforward in his interviews because he's going to be grilled about those things. If Jeff Ireland can grill Dez Bryant on whether or not his mother is a prostitute, you damn well better believe that they are going to press Burfict's buttons and put him in really uncomfortable situations to see how he reacts.

He's not my first choice for the Ravens at MLB, obviously Hightower or Kuechly are, but Burfict might actually be the only MLB there in the bottom of round 1.

Now, frankly if I'm picking between Burfict and someone like Whitney Mercilus, Nick Perry, or Andre Branch I think that I'd be looking at those guys more as their upside is there, character concerns aren't an issue, and the production is there against top tiered competition.

After the playoffs and the 2nd half of the season I'm not certain why anyone would feel that a pass rusher isn't a priority for the Ravens this off-season. Nothing against Suggs or Ngata, but those two can only do so much when they're facing constant double teams.

I think you also have to consider DT's now like a Michael Brockers from LSU or a Devon Still from Penn State.

If Hightower and Kuechly are gone, but Burfict and Mike Adams (OT Ohio State) are still there, I take Mike Adams. However, if Adams is gone, then I take Burfict. I like Nick Perry, but at 6'3" 250 lbs, he would have to be converted to an OLB. Whitney Mercilus on the other hand, would be very tempting.

[JMUpurkfool]

If Burfict interviews great he;s going to go a lot higher than #29. If he doesn't there are some issues that's going to push him out of the first round and significant guaranteed money. Either way I see him as a real long shot to be a Raven.

I have a hard time seeing the Ravens passing him up if he is there.

Sergio Kindle literally mapped out his drunk driving route that ended with his car in the side of a building and him fleeing the scene. And we're gonna pass up the best prospect since Patrick Willis because he got a couple of personal fouls this year?

I think Ozzie has proved that BPA is going to stick regardless of 'character issues'.

[GOTA]

I have a hard time seeing the Ravens passing him up if he is there.

Sergio Kindle literally mapped out his drunk driving route that ended with his car in the side of a building and him fleeing the scene. And we're gonna pass up the best prospect since Patrick Willis because he got a couple of personal fouls this year?

I think Ozzie has proved that BPA is going to stick regardless of 'character issues'.

Kindle is exactly the reason why they are going to be extra careful.

For the Ravens to draft him 28 other teams have to not see him as the best prospect at the position since Patrick Willis. If it's just a couple of personal fouls wouldn't he go in the top 10 or at worst in the top 15? For Burfict to fall to the Ravens there has to be some serious doubts about him because he's so talented. If those doubts are there wouldn't the Ravens have them as well?

Either he's Dez Bryant or he's gone long before the Ravens draft.

[BleedPurple92]

Kindle is exactly the reason why they are going to be extra careful.

For the Ravens to draft him 28 other teams have to not see him as the best prospect at the position since Patrick Willis. If it's just a couple of personal fouls wouldn't he go in the top 10 or at worst in the top 15? For Burfict to fall to the Ravens there has to be some serious doubts about him because he's so talented. If those doubts are there wouldn't the Ravens have them as well?

Either he's Dez Bryant or he's gone long before the Ravens draft.

His problem is he lets his emotions get the best of him on the field. He takes his aggression after the whistle, and he's had an incredible amount of penalties after the whistle. That's pretty much his problem. He's got some suh in him. Off the field, all you hear is that he's a shy, meek kid. But when the helmet comes on he's a different guy. He cost his team a lot of yards in penalties, and he really honestly didn't play that well this year.... Simple as that, if he played this season like he played last year he would bet a top 10 pick even with the penalties.

I'd rather have that on the field, than off the field.

[GOTA]

His problem is he lets his emotions get the best of him on the field. He takes his aggression after the whistle, and he's had an incredible amount of penalties after the whistle. That's pretty much his problem. He's got some suh in him. Off the field, all you hear is that he's a shy, meek kid. But when the helmet comes on he's a different guy. He cost his team a lot of yards in penalties, and he really honestly didn't play that well this year.... Simple as that, if he played this season like he played last year he would bet a top 10 pick even with the penalties.

I'd rather have that on the field, than off the field.

My point is that if he is a great prospect he's not falling to 29. We all know he has a lot of talent so it's going to have to be other things that cause him to fall. I don't think anyone can assume that issues that matter to other GMs don't matter to Ozzie.

The issue is risk. How much risk, guaranteed money, are you willing to assume for the player? When you have a high level prospect the less risk the higher he's going to go. That's why Dez Bryant went to the bottom of the draft but Julio Jones who had a broken foot was worth trading half a draft to get.

Which case does Burifict fall into? If he's Bryant are the Ravens willing to risk 1st round money? If he's Jones there is no way he falls to 29.

[goodandfast]

My point is that if he is a great prospect he's not falling to 29. We all know he has a lot of talent so it's going to have to be other things that cause him to fall. I don't think anyone can assume that issues that matter to other GMs don't matter to Ozzie.

The issue is risk. How much risk, guaranteed money, are you willing to assume for the player? When you have a high level prospect the less risk the higher he's going to go. That's why Dez Bryant went to the bottom of the draft but Julio Jones who had a broken foot was worth trading half a draft to get.

Which case does Burifict fall into? If he's Bryant are the Ravens willing to risk 1st round money? If he's Jones there is no way he falls to 29.

I think he'll fall just like Jimmy Smith did.

[BleedPurple92]

My point is that if he is a great prospect he's not falling to 29. We all know he has a lot of talent so it's going to have to be other things that cause him to fall. I don't think anyone can assume that issues that matter to other GMs don't matter to Ozzie.

The issue is risk. How much risk, guaranteed money, are you willing to assume for the player? When you have a high level prospect the less risk the higher he's going to go. That's why Dez Bryant went to the bottom of the draft but Julio Jones who had a broken foot was worth trading half a draft to get.

Which case does Burifict fall into? If he's Bryant are the Ravens willing to risk 1st round money? If he's Jones there is no way he falls to 29.

With the Ravens, they do their homework, they go the extra mile when it comes to character. That is why they drafted Jimmy Smith, and its proving to be a good decision.

They wont draft a guy unless they feel comfortable with him. That we know for sure.

Fact is, the only team's that need a MLB are Philly, and the Jets. If he gets past either of those teams, he will most likely fall to us. NY was another team that need a LB but they are in the Superbowl.


Again i keep saying for Hightower, and Burfict. The combine will either make, or Lose money for them. They could go anywhere from 15, to the 2nd round. Guys like that the combine is where they make their mark. If Burfict has a good combine, trust me, no way he makes it to us. I cant say the same for Hightower, but i promise you this, if Hightower runs a 4.6 or less, he wont make it into the 2nd round.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

I'm not arguing that he is a good player.

The question was more along the lines of why the value of MLB has dropped in the last couple of years. Timmons was picked 15th overall...10 spots above Jon Beason and several spots/rounds above Poz, Harris, and Bishop. If a team who needs multiple things is starting at a MLB with a top 20 pick do they take him? Is he really worth a top 20 pick? History has shown that you can get starting quality MLB's from round 2 on and they are A LOT cheaper to sign and carry a fraction of the expectation weight that 1st round picks do.

If you go to any Steeler board you will find multiple folks who don't think Timmons is worth the 15th overall pick that he was taken at.

I'll just say I disagree...I think he was worth that spot and is by far the most underrated player on that Steeler defense. I don't think Boz or Bishop are in his league as a player.

As far as what you're saying about value, well, I agree. I'd also say though that you could probably do the same study about most positions that aren't OL or DT. So really, it's just a matter of what the scouts see...and we have some of the best there are. If they don't want to roll the dice on a first round ILB, I'm ok with that, but I really think getting one early this year is important...especially if McClain leaves as a UFA.

[Raveninwoodlawn]

.

Fact is, the only team's that need a MLB are Philly, and the Jets. If he gets past either of those teams, he will most likely fall to us. NY was another team that need a LB but they are in the Superbowl.


Again i keep saying for Hightower, and Burfict. The combine will either make, or Lose money for them. They could go anywhere from 15, to the 2nd round. Guys like that the combine is where they make their mark. If Burfict has a good combine, trust me, no way he makes it to us. I cant say the same for Hightower, but i promise you this, if Hightower runs a 4.6 or less, he wont make it into the 2nd round.

True and I think you can take Philly off as they never have and never will value the LB position. Look for them to take another offensive lineman.

As for Hightower, no way he runs a 4.6 or lower.

He likely will run around a 4.8 or high 4.7.

[pickles]

My point is that if he is a great prospect he's not falling to 29. We all know he has a lot of talent so it's going to have to be other things that cause him to fall. I don't think anyone can assume that issues that matter to other GMs don't matter to Ozzie.

The issue is risk. How much risk, guaranteed money, are you willing to assume for the player? When you have a high level prospect the less risk the higher he's going to go. That's why Dez Bryant went to the bottom of the draft but Julio Jones who had a broken foot was worth trading half a draft to get.

Which case does Burifict fall into? If he's Bryant are the Ravens willing to risk 1st round money? If he's Jones there is no way he falls to 29.

Could you, or could you not, say the exact same thing heading into their respective drafts about Jimmy Smith, and to a lesser extend (and different reasons) Michael Oher?

It's very possible he's there at 29 and Ozzie feels comfortable taking him there. I would not dismiss it at all.

[pickles]

I think Ozzie looks to trade down this year. I could see him moving back into the mid 30s , and targeting one of the ILBs or Cs who slips a bit, and taking the extra pick. Fact is, our biggest needs are ILB, S, C imo. Those are three positions that are often underrated in the draft because they aren't "sexy."

It's still BPA of course but I think he looks to move down ala 2010.

[BleedPurple92]

True and I think you can take Philly off as they never have and never will value the LB position. Look for them to take another offensive lineman.

As for Hightower, no way he runs a 4.6 or lower.

He likely will run around a 4.8 or high 4.7.

I honestly think hightower could pull off a 4.6 lol.

He isn't an athletic slouch, for some reason people have the notion that he's stiff. He can run man. I'm gonna enjoy the combine, so many players i'm curious to see what they run.

Alshon Jeffery, if he runs a sub 4.5.... Wow that clinches a top 20 pick. I mean the dude's 230 pounds, and 6'4.

Micheal Floyd-Another guy who's 40 time will be interesting to watch.

Ofcourse Burfict/Hightower

[BleedPurple92]

I think Ozzie looks to trade down this year. I could see him moving back into the mid 30s , and targeting one of the ILBs or Cs who slips a bit, and taking the extra pick. Fact is, our biggest needs are ILB, S, C imo. Those are three positions that are often underrated in the draft because they aren't "sexy."

It's still BPA of course but I think he looks to move down ala 2010.

Ozzie's never really followed a pure BPA. He's always had an element of Need in his picks. It could be BPA, but it's a position that we could have a need at in a year or two. Like how he drafted Ray Rice, pretty sure he knew he wasn't gonna keep Willis around with that big contract.

[GOTA]

Could you, or could you not, say the exact same thing heading into their respective drafts about Jimmy Smith, and to a lesser extend (and different reasons) Michael Oher?

It's very possible he's there at 29 and Ozzie feels comfortable taking him there. I would not dismiss it at all.

Jimmy Smith had problems as a freshman. He proved over many years without issues that those weren't problems.

The issue with Oher was his height and his short arms. A lot of scouts felt he was a Guard in the NFL and not a Tackle.

Neither was considered to be the best prospect in years at their position like I keep hearing about Burfict. If Burfict is that great he's going top 10 and will be the first player at his position taken. If he isn't then it's because teams are worried about his maturity.

I'm trying to argue for or against taking him. What I am trying to argue is that at this point I don't see him ending up on the Ravens.

[Jeremiah W]

I could run a 4.6 at 240 in HS. I think Hightower can. Dude is cut up. Burfict is very explosive though. It is going to come down to the mental part of the game, they are both fantastic athletes. Burfict has quickness, but Hightower is massive. I like them both, but trust the ravens scouts to properly rank them based on the stuff that does not always show up on tape. Hightower does sound like a very bright guy in the interviews I saw.