Orioles prediction thread

**Corvus Corax** · 04-07-2012, 12:41 AM

78-84

I predicted 90-72 last season (fooled by Showalter's first two months as manager in 2010; starting rotation turned into a disaster area). Have faith in Duquette (returning from his 'sabattical'). Duquette + Showalter = eventual success (i.e., sufficient improvement to compete in the AL East which is the best 'testing ground' for building a contender).

**PeterB58** · 08-25-2012, 08:32 AM

Originally Posted by PeterB58

68-94

Lather. Rinse. Repeat.

And with last night's win...they have meet my projected victory total. I have never been so thoroughly, amazingly, shockingly and disbelieving to be so HAPPY to be so WRONG.

Territory uncharted in years, heck decades, now awaits: 70 wins, .500 season, playoffs....and beyond? WHY NOT!!!

Go Os!!!!

**wickedsolo** · 08-25-2012, 09:14 AM

88-74 is very realistic.

If they keep playing like they have for this past week and if Hammel can come back at all, maybe even 90 wins?

**Corvus Corax** · 08-26-2012, 12:58 AM

The most exciting aspect of this team is the current rotation - a makeshift one at that. The back-to-back quality starts of Zach Britton and Steve Johnson (together AND separately) is a huge boost of confidence for this team. And adding Matusz to the bullpen as a lefthander specialist is a very smart move. This starting rotation appears to be solid(?) even without Hammel - not to mention Hunter or Arrieta. FOUR of the original five starters are missing, yet it is actually working.

When Arrieta, Matusz and Hunter were suddenly demoted along with Hammel's injury it looked very bleak - especially when the Twins were scoring runs against them in double digits. That was 1-1/2 months ago. The 'handwriting was on the wall'; the annual collapse had commenced.

BUT the collapse did NOT happen (big surprise) - thanks in large part to Gonzales, Tillman and, yes, Hunter who made an unheralded comeback. Chen has been solid all season - although he has struggled some of late. There is almost no significant MLB experience among them. Tillman is the veteran(?).

The big question is, of course, can they sustain their success? I have a hard time believing they can win 90 games which I believe is the minimum required to capture a wildcard berth. But the 14 consecutive losing seasons APPEARS to be ending fast.

CC

**pslholder96** · 08-28-2012, 02:38 PM

It's a real cool feeling having the Orioles become relevant in Aug/Sept. This team continues to surprise me. They've overachieved with a lot of production and contribution from unexpected sources. Defense has become much more crisper ever since they moved to Reynolds to first. Offense has come to life somewhat with Markakis leading off. Pitching has been decent this year. I no longer have to look at team pitching stats and see the Orioles with combined era of between 5 and 6. That was a common phenomenon during the last 14 years.

**JohnBKistler** · 08-28-2012, 10:05 PM

On the day the Pirates release Erik Buh-Dard, the Orioles win on the backs of Chris Tillman and Adam Jones. Ironic.

And worthy of recognizing what was probably Andy MacPhail's best move as the Os GM.

(the former PeterB58)

**wickedsolo** · 08-29-2012, 06:18 AM

I saw the Pirates released Bedard. He was a good lefty while he was here. I know I wasn't real happy to see him traded, but I did like getting Adam Jones.

**Corvus Corax** · 09-04-2012, 11:33 AM

THIS IS THE WEEK!

By far, the 4-game series hosting the Yankees at OPACY is the most important one to the Orioles organization in at least 16 years. It has ramifications that go beyond this season. IMHO, it is MORE important than a trip to the postseason or what transpires if they make it. Here are my reasons:

1. The Orioles are in the process of 'turning the tables' against NYY. In the last 14 seasons, they have been routinely dominated by the New Yorkers - a major embarrassment when they constantly 'choke' on the mound, at bat, in the field. But that has changed this season IN Yankee Stadium (6-3 against them there). However, at home, nothing has changed as yet (1-4 against them here).

2. They would never admit it to themselves, but the Yankees have become heavily dependent, year after year, on Oriole losses to inflate their win totals. Last season, the Orioles were 5-13 against them. Currently, it is now 7-7. The Orioles are winning the head-to-head games enough to have a realistic chance of clinching first place. The Yankees are missing key players and the Orioles are taking full advantage.

3. The Orioles need to approach this series with a different perspective - a 'glass half full' instead of 'glass half empty' acceptance. With all of the Yankee fans in attendance, the Orioles really should treat it as a road series and put an end to the intimidation factor. Instead of tolerating the presence of loud Yankee fans they should use the presence of Oriole fans to both motivate and relax themselves. Showalter and his players need to make this simple adjustment mentally.

4. In a division where the Yankees have routinely dominated year after year, the Orioles have a golden opportunity to make them relinquish control. By eliminating the intimidation factor alone, the Orioles can effectively compete in the AL East for years to come. And being successful in the toughest division in baseball is usually a 'launching pad' for success in the postseason.

CC

**pslholder96** · 09-04-2012, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by Corvus Corax

THIS IS THE WEEK!

By far, the 4-game series hosting the Yankees at OPACY is the most important one to the Orioles organization in at least 16 years. It has ramifications that go beyond this season. IMHO, it is MORE important than a trip to the postseason or what transpires if they make it. Here are my reasons:

1. The Orioles are in the process of 'turning the tables' against NYY. In the last 14 seasons, they have been routinely dominated by the New Yorkers - a major embarrassment when they constantly 'choke' on the mound, at bat, in the field. But that has changed this season IN Yankee Stadium (6-3 against them there). However, at home, nothing has changed as yet (1-4 against them here).

2. They would never admit it to themselves, but the Yankees have become heavily dependent, year after year, on Oriole losses to inflate their win totals. Last season, the Orioles were 5-13 against them. Currently, it is now 7-7. The Orioles are winning the head-to-head games enough to have a realistic chance of clinching first place. The Yankees are missing key players and the Orioles are taking full advantage.

3. The Orioles need to approach this series with a different perspective - a 'glass half full' instead of 'glass half empty' acceptance. With all of the Yankee fans in attendance, the Orioles really should treat it as a road series and put an end to the intimidation factor. Instead of tolerating the presence of loud Yankee fans they should use the presence of Oriole fans to both motivate and relax themselves. Showalter and his players need to make this simple adjustment mentally.

4. In a division where the Yankees have routinely dominated year after year, the Orioles have a golden opportunity to make them relinquish control. By eliminating the intimidation factor alone, the Orioles can effectively compete in the AL East for years to come. And being successful in the toughest division in baseball is usually a 'launching pad' for success in the postseason.

CC

Different season, different team. While I realize the Orioles are only 1-4 against the yanks, overall a 7-7 record doesn't indicate any kind intimidation here. Furthermore the yankees will be facing a hot Orioles team. Let's hope that we keep the momentum going. The next 10 days are the most critical part of the season.

**Corvus Corax** · 09-26-2012, 11:28 PM

Three things to celebrate thus far:

1. Over 90 wins.
2. Team ERA down below 4.00.
3. Leading the AL wild car race.

Still have a realistic chance to win the division crown. But it will require a sweep of the Red Sox at home and winning two of three in Tampa (while the Yankees split their four games in Toronto and NOT sweep the Red Sox in New York). Showalter's handling of the rotation will be crucial. Current best starters: Hammel (when he is available), Steve Johnson, Tillman, Gonzales, Saunders. At least one of the original starters will probably have to 'step up' (Hunter, Chen, Arrietta, Matusz - maybe Britton).