Here's what Ray Rice should be paid!

**JAB1985** · 03-05-2012, 07:51 AM

Sounds right to me GOTA, but does it sound good to Rice is still the million(s) dollar question.

**TL24x7** · 03-05-2012, 08:16 AM

Originally Posted by GOTA
The way I handle is this:

If Rice is franchised this year he gets $7.7 million. Next year the tag would be the greater of the RB tag number or a 20% increase. Since there probably won't be any huge RB deals pushing the tag way up we can assume the 20% which is $9.24 million. That's almost $17 million guaranteed by 2 years of the tag.

We like Ray Rice. We want him to be here longer than 2 years. Therefore we are willing to guarantee him $25 million. To make it work with the cap that has to be for a 5 year deal. That's more guaranteed money than D'Angelo Williams. We then give Rice another $20 million in base salary pushing the total up to 5 years $45 million with $25 million guaranteed.

Then the Ravens scale the base contract. They give Rice $1.5 million year 1. $2 million year 2. $4 million year 3 $5 million year 4 and $7.5 year 5.

That gives Rice a $9 million average and puts his cap number at $6.5 year 1, $7 year 2, $9 year 3, $10, year 4 and $12.5 year 5. They could even split the bonus up to make it more cap friendly in the early years.

By year 5 Rice is 30 and they make a decision if they need the space. Since Ray is getting 55% of his contract guaranteed he should be more willing to back load things to make them more cap friendly. That's a fair deal that should appeal to all sides.

^^^THIS^^^

**madmikey** · 03-05-2012, 08:18 AM

Arian Foster apparently just signed a 5-year deal, so the pressure will increase a bit to do something with Rice. The Ravens really hold all the cards, but it would be best not to make Rice unhappy and Foster getting his deal won't help.

**srobert96** · 03-05-2012, 08:48 AM

Originally Posted by GOTA

The way I handle is this:

If Rice is franchised this year he gets $7.7 million. Next year the tag would be the greater of the RB tag number or a 20% increase. Since there probably won't be any huge RB deals pushing the tag way up we can assume the 20% which is $9.24 million. That's almost $17 million guaranteed by 2 years of the tag.

We like Ray Rice. We want him to be here longer than 2 years. Therefore we are willing to guarantee him $25 million. To make it work with the cap that has to be for a 5 year deal. That's more guaranteed money than D'Angelo Williams. We then give Rice another $20 million in base salary pushing the total up to 5 years $45 million with $25 million guaranteed.

Then the Ravens scale the base contract. They give Rice $1.5 million year 1. $2 million year 2. $4 million year 3 $5 million year 4 and $7.5 year 5.

That gives Rice a $9 million average and puts his cap number at $6.5 year 1, $7 year 2, $9 year 3, $10, year 4 and $12.5 year 5. They could even split the bonus up to make it more cap friendly in the early years.

By year 5 Rice is 30 and they make a decision if they need the space. Since Ray is getting 55% of his contract guaranteed he should be more willing to back load things to make them more cap friendly. That's a fair deal that should appeal to all sides.

This is very fair. It is well below the numbers that have been thrown around. Doing the deal that you have here would allow the Ravens to save some money in the first two years. They could give him a 15m signing bonus and guarantee the salaries in the first three years to get to the 25m guaranteed. There is no need for the guaranteed money to be all signing bonus. The challenge is that the perception is that CJ got 13m a year and AP 14.

**GOTA** · 03-05-2012, 09:24 AM

If Foster got less than CJ and AP then Rice's agent will have to throw those contracts out. Foster is the most comparable player to get a deal in the same time frame. That's the contract that we all need to see the details of.

**JAB1985** · 03-05-2012, 09:26 AM

Originally Posted by GOTA

If Foster got less than CJ and AP then Rice's agent will have to throw those contracts out. Foster is the most comparable player to get a deal in the same time frame. That's the contract that we all need to see the details of.

yep, 5 years means nothing if its a larger contract, which it could be. Might be his perfect deal but once again, not something the ravens will pay him.

**Kyle Cactus** · 03-05-2012, 11:08 AM

Given Foster's contract the numbers posted by Tony and GOTA seem pretty attainable. Hopefully Rice signs a deal like this soon!

Foster's Deal: 5-yr, $43.5 mil, $20.75 mil guaranteed

EDIT:
Tony's Proposal - 5yr/$39M/$22M
GOTA's Proposal - 5yr/$45M/$25M
Foster's Deal - 5yr/$43.5M/$20.75M

Despite Foster's Deal being of identical length w/ more money than Tony's suggestion, it has less guraanteed money. It's pretty comparable to GOTA's deal except that it has about $4M less guaranteed money!

Given that running back's can be valuable players but their long term value is highly unpredictable, maybe contracts with low amounts of guaranteed money relative to the total contract size could become the norm for the positions.

**TheJoeFlaccoShow** · 03-05-2012, 11:35 AM

So many flaws in all this thinking, so little time. My response is coming, been in the lab working hard.

In my research there is one thing that matters with RB, and that is age. It is age, age...and more age. Nothing else matters, as every back no matter what skill level takes a dive right around age 30.

You want to know why Foster got what he did? Because he is a year and a half older than Rice and only got 5 years, instead of the 6 Rice will get. That is why the total is low. That is why the guarantee is relatively low.
'
I will have more to follow on this soon, as I am very close to finishing my long term project on running backs. I kind of went overboard so it is taking a while, just to appease some who refuse to look at the facts.

**Kyle Cactus** · 03-05-2012, 12:24 PM

-FlaccoShow

Looking forward to seeing what you've come up with. Age is definitely a big factor. Another factor to consider is that Rice has an extra season in the NFL, about 300 more carries, and about 120 more receptions. I think that may balance out the age difference. That doesn't include playoff games, which would make those differences in touches even larger.

Rice also had 910 carries at Rutgers to Foster's 650 carries at Tennessee.

**TheJoeFlaccoShow** · 03-05-2012, 01:28 PM

http://profootballanalyst.wordpress....alue-analysis/

Just my 2 cents.

The recent Foster deal killed some leverage Rice had, and I took that into account. The Peterson and CJ deals look worse and worse by the day, but that doesn't mean Rice should not be rewarded with a nice deal....which he will be.

**wickedsolo** · 03-05-2012, 01:41 PM

6 years and $60 million with $27 guaranteed?

I understand what you're saying, I just don't think they would give him a deal averaging roughly $10 million per year.

Also, your theory would make sense if Foster were significantly older, but his birthday (August, 1986) is roughly 4 months before Rice's birthday (January, 1987). It's not like Foster is an entire year or more older, plus you could also sincerely factor in the number of carries Rice has had from Rutgers to now and IIRC it's significantly higher than Foster's deal.

Foster's deal sets the benchmark for the top of the RB's *right now* and his deal averages (roughly) $8.7 million per year, but he has a base salary in 2012 of $18 million. So, he's seeing a significant amount of money up front, which is going to make it a lot easier for Houston to cut him in lieu of Ben Tate in a couple of years if/when Foster starts to decline.

I see no reason at all to offer Rice nearly 2 million more per year than what Foster has gotten because Rice is 4 months younger than Arian Foster.

5 years, $45 mill, $21-23 guaranteed.

**HoustonRaven** · 03-05-2012, 01:45 PM

Appreciate the work, JFS, but I am going to put this one in the Rice thread that's already up and running.

**The Excellector** · 03-05-2012, 01:46 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

5 years, $45 mill, $21-23 guaranteed.

It's somewhat funny that, after a month long debate on the board, the number you mentioned is a number that has generally been brought up the entire time. After all of the mystery, posters weren't far off.

**wickedsolo** · 03-05-2012, 01:50 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

It's somewhat funny that, after a month long debate on the board, the number you mentioned is a number that has generally been brought up the entire time. After all of the mystery, posters weren't far off.

If they were to go 6 years, which they could to give Rice more incentive to sign now, then it would probably be something like 6, for $50-52 mill with $25 guaranteed.

**srobert96** · 03-05-2012, 01:54 PM

Originally Posted by TheJoeFlaccoShow

http://profootballanalyst.wordpress....alue-analysis/

Just my 2 cents.

The recent Foster deal killed some leverage Rice had, and I took that into account. The Peterson and CJ deals look worse and worse by the day, but that doesn't mean Rice should not be rewarded with a nice deal....which he will be.

Are you Rice's agent?

You are going to give him 2m a year more than Foster and nearly 1m a year more than CJ. Thank god you are not the Raven's GM. By the way every RBs production starts declining after at 27 or 28. They may still play at a high level but it starts to dip from their prime which is 24-27. It absolutely falls off a cliff at 29-30. A few exceptions in the last 15 years of guys productive after 30 are Ricky Watters and Emmit Smith. Those guys played a long time ago. The game is harder on players now. Thomas Jones was productive after 30 but that is mostly from being a back up early in his career and not playing much until his late 20s.

Giving a running back 6 years and 10m a year is fiscally irresponsible for a GM.

Rice deserves to be in the neighborhood of Foster and no higher.

**GOTA** · 03-05-2012, 01:55 PM

Originally Posted by The Excellector

It's somewhat funny that, after a month long debate on the board, the number you mentioned is a number that has generally been brought up the entire time. After all of the mystery, posters weren't far off.

Too bad we can't do the same with Flacco

**TheJoeFlaccoShow** · 03-05-2012, 01:56 PM

Originally Posted by wickedsolo

6 years and $60 million with $27 guaranteed?

I understand what you're saying, I just don't think they would give him a deal averaging roughly $10 million per year.

Also, your theory would make sense if Foster were significantly older, but his birthday (August, 1986) is roughly 4 months before Rice's birthday (January, 1987). It's not like Foster is an entire year or more older, plus you could also sincerely factor in the number of carries Rice has had from Rutgers to now and IIRC it's significantly higher than Foster's deal.

Foster's deal sets the benchmark for the top of the RB's *right now* and his deal averages (roughly) $8.7 million per year, but he has a base salary in 2012 of $18 million. So, he's seeing a significant amount of money up front, which is going to make it a lot easier for Houston to cut him in lieu of Ben Tate in a couple of years if/when Foster starts to decline.

I see no reason at all to offer Rice nearly 2 million more per year than what Foster has gotten because Rice is 4 months younger than Arian Foster.

5 years, $45 mill, $21-23 guaranteed.

I posted that first comment before going over the numbers. I was a little off base because I thought Foster was a year older than he was, that was the first thing that came to mind when I saw his numbers...I was wrong.

The age had little impact after I got done looking, Foster just took an under market type deal to get paid. Simple as that. It is a great deal for the team, not a good deal for him considering his production.

Rice and his agent would laugh at an average salary in line with much lesser backs, and like I said the Foster deal Rice and his agent are probably cringing looking at.

He should be right in the middle of the pack I used, which is around $10 million a year, give or take.

The guarantee again is higher because I used a 6 year deal not 5 or 4.

**JAB1985** · 03-05-2012, 01:58 PM

6/60 with 27 guaranteed is pretty much ridiculous considering what foster just signed for. Rice lost any leverage he had because of that. he also still congratulated him on twitter which leads me to believe hes happy with that number. Like Wicked said, 2 million more a year for 4 months younger is a ridiculous premium. Ozzie being patient actually helped him out if those rumors he was asking for AP money are true. Hes not worth it and now theres a comparable player that proves it.

**wickedsolo** · 03-05-2012, 02:00 PM

Originally Posted by srobert96

Are you Rice's agent?

You are going to give him 2m a year more than Foster and nearly 1m a year more than CJ. Thank god you are not the Raven's GM. By the way every RBs production starts declining after at 27 or 28. They may still play at a high level but it starts to dip from their prime which is 24-27. It absolutely falls off a cliff at 29-30. A few exceptions in the last 15 years of guys productive after 30 are Ricky Watters and Emmit Smith. Those guys played a long time ago. The game is harder on players now. Thomas Jones was productive after 30 but that is mostly from being a back up early in his career and not playing much until his late 20s.

Giving a running back 6 years and 10m a year is fiscally irresponsible for a GM.

Rice deserves to be in the neighborhood of Foster and no higher.

I agree.

If many feel that Arian Foster is the best RB in the NFL right now (and many do) and his deal averages 8.7 million per year, then why should Rice's be more? This deal for Foster pretty much shows how foolish DeAngelo Williams' deal was as well as CJ & AP's.

If the thought is that Rice is slightly less than Foster as a player, then maybe averaging somewhere in the neighborhood of $8.4 or 8.5 mill per year (5yr deal at roughly $42mill with $23 guaranteed).

**TheJoeFlaccoShow** · 03-05-2012, 02:02 PM

Originally Posted by srobert96

Are you Rice's agent?

You are going to give him 2m a year more than Foster and nearly 1m a year more than CJ. Thank god you are not the Raven's GM. By the way every RBs production starts declining after at 27 or 28. They may still play at a high level but it starts to dip from their prime which is 24-27. It absolutely falls off a cliff at 29-30. A few exceptions in the last 15 years of guys productive after 30 are Ricky Watters and Emmit Smith. Those guys played a long time ago. The game is harder on players now. Thomas Jones was productive after 30 but that is mostly from being a back up early in his career and not playing much until his late 20s.

Giving a running back 6 years and 10m a year is fiscally irresponsible for a GM.

Rice deserves to be in the neighborhood of Foster and no higher.

LOL I don't even know how to respond to this nonsense, so I won't.

Try getting your facts straight at least, or reading the article which you obviously did not.