If these are the best five players available at 29, who do you take?

[Carey]

Konz or Upshaw. Ill go konz cuz I don't think upshaw will be there at 29. Look...we just lost a 1st round interior lineman. Let's replace him with the best center in the draft...he can play LG this year and slide over next, when birk hangs it up. They need to start beefing up that line with some young talent...birk and mckinnie are at the end and im not so sure oher gets a longterm deal.

Just say no!...to a 1st round wr. Nobody sitting there at 29 is going to be worth the pick..esp a 2-3 year project player. Flacco is getting ready to hit the sweet spot of his career. Keep him protected and maybe he starts making lesser known wr's as productive as we have seen brady/manning do over the last decade. Those guys are so good cuz they never get touched.

I think thats a bit short sided, if you look at the last 5 super bowl winners the Giants this past year pieced together an oline and had a guard at LT. The weaklink of the Packers team their year was the oline. The Saints had Bushrod and Stinchcomb at tackles their yr which both werent known for stout pass protection but played solid enough for Brees to get the ball to their weapons. We all know the shortcomings of the Steelers oline.

Im not saying you ignore the oline but im not saying you have to have high picks all across it either. It's up to your scouting department to find those mid round picks that turn into solid lineman. Explosive weapons in the pass game and mismatch opportunites change the way teams attack offenses, and right now teams still play this team like they dont respect the weapons we have. Part of that has been play calling and play design but also a part of it is lack of explosion besides what Torrey has added this past year.

[Shas]

Upshaw. I'm addressing a known deficiency.

I guess this is where I differ. It's been pointed out that Upshaw isn't a dominant sack artist, like Suggs coming out of college, or he'd be a top ten pick. He is a solid player, no doubt, but it's not like he hugely upgrades the pass rush talent at the Sam linebacker spot. I believe Kruger and Kindle probably represent as much talent pass-rush-wise as Upshaw does. Kruger is a second round pick, and Kindle was a second rounder who would have been a first if not for character and injury questions. And McPhee certainly looks promising as a guy who teams have to deal with opposite Suggs. So I'm not sure I see the big deficiency.

The situation at Sam linebacker, with Johnson leaving, reminds me of last season when they let Todd Heap go. People assumed there would be issues at tight end, but in fact, we didn't miss Todd at all, and the young players, Dickson and Pitta, were a strength. I think Kruger and Kindle could turn out the same way stepping in for JJ.

Now compare that to what the Ravens have on the inside. You have all-world Ray Lewis, coming into his 17th season. Great leader, but limited time left, and he can't really drop into coverage anymore. Next to him you have an undrafted free agent in McClain who is solid, but I don't see the upside on him that I see on some of the OLB options. Behind him are Ellerbe, McClellan, and Ayenbadjo. Frankly, of that group, I'm most intrigued by McClellan. But I'd say if I were looking for deficiencies on the team, I'd point to the interior linebacking and interior offensive line spots.

[Shas]

I haven't even seen Adams in the 1st round since the Combine in any of the mocks that I follow. I didn't realize that anyone was high on him.

Well, CBS for instance has five of their "experts" with mocks posted. Two of the five have Adams going in the first. Prisco has him going 22 to the Browns, saying they will plug him in immediately at RT to play opposite Thomas. His mock was updated yesterday.

I don't recall who still had him in the teens, but I tried to consult the bigger-name sites.

[GOTA]

Another guy who could be around at #29 is Cordy Glenn. Glenn is kind of a weird player because he's a zone blocker in a 345 pound body. It's even possible that he could eventually replace McKinnie at LT if he improved enough. Marcus McNeill was a similar kind of player and look what he was able to do when healthy. If Glenn does fall he would have to be given very strong consideration.

[Shas]

I think thats a bit short sided, if you look at the last 5 super bowl winners the Giants this past year pieced together an oline and had a guard at LT. The weaklink of the Packers team their year was the oline. The Saints had Bushrod and Stinchcomb at tackles their yr which both werent known for stout pass protection but played solid enough for Brees to get the ball to their weapons. We all know the shortcomings of the Steelers oline.

Im not saying you ignore the oline but im not saying you have to have high picks all across it either. It's up to your scouting department to find those mid round picks that turn into solid lineman. Explosive weapons in the pass game and mismatch opportunites change the way teams attack offenses, and right now teams still play this team like they dont respect the weapons we have. Part of that has been play calling and play design but also a part of it is lack of explosion besides what Torrey has added this past year.

It's an interesting point.

The Ravens certainly have talked at length about a philosophy of using first round picks on players who touch the quarterback or the ball.

Logically, it makes sense. Think about the very best skill position players in the NFL...at quarterback, wide receiver, corner, rush end. There are a small handful of elite players and it quickly gets mediocre-to-bad from there. If you have a chance to pick a player who can be one of those elite players, you do it.

Compare that to the offensive line. Are there really just three or four elite centers or guards in the league who stand head and shoulders above the rest? I don't think the gap is as nearly as wide as it is for QB, or WR, or pass rusher.

History does show that you can draft a Marshal Yanda in the third round and have him play as well or better than a Ben Grubbs in the first. Not that Ben was a bad pick, but he didn't maximize the value of a first round pick in the same way that a skill player might. Same with Michael Oher.

So that's the question on a player like Konz. He would probably be fine, but he might not be the maximum value choice.

Question is whether there are any skill players who really might be there at 29. It may be another year when a safe pick is the best they can do. Maybe it's better to make a safe pick than using it on a player who falls way short of elite at a skill position.

[Shas]

Another guy who could be around at #29 is Cordy Glenn. Glenn is kind of a weird player because he's a zone blocker in a 345 pound body. It's even possible that he could eventually replace McKinnie at LT if he improved enough. Marcus McNeill was a similar kind of player and look what he was able to do when healthy. If Glenn does fall he would have to be given very strong consideration.

I thought about including him, but based on the mocks that I used as my guide few people think he'll be around. Almost everyone has him going in the 14-23 range. But I agree, if he's there, he'd be a no-brainer. I applied the same logic to players like Barron, Martin, Kirkpatrick and Kuechly.

[houstonravensfan]

OK, I chose Konz, but would be very happy with either Upshaw or Hightower.
I understand Hill's attraction, but we are merely thin at WR -- we are in far worse shape on the O line.

IMHO,this draft must address where we will be 12 months in the future, when we might have to replace Ed and Ray, not to mention Birk and McKinnie, among others. The O line is our weakest unit, so I think that is where we must focus -- C, G, or LT -- we can use help at any or all of those positions.

I worry about trading back. I don't see us getting a sure-fire player with our own 2nd rounder, so we better get at least one (near)certain blue chipper with our first round pick.

Several posters stress that we can get a solid player like Yanda in the third. We could also get an Oneil Cousins.

[Carey]

Another guy who could be around at #29 is Cordy Glenn. Glenn is kind of a weird player because he's a zone blocker in a 345 pound body. It's even possible that he could eventually replace McKinnie at LT if he improved enough. Marcus McNeill was a similar kind of player and look what he was able to do when healthy. If Glenn does fall he would have to be given very strong consideration.

I'd be all for Cordy Glenn if he made it thru the gaunlet of the late teens and 20's of the first round, i dont think he does but if he did i'd be ecstatic.

A darkhorse imo is Amini Silatolu if our board gets blown up a bit, i had him as a 2nd round target of the Ravens but he's impressing alot of people. Kind of in the same vain of a Cordy Glenn, not quite the athlete but has good feet, can move and he's nasty. Was a LT in college but has big time upside as a NFL guard.

[blah3]

I'd be very happy with Hightower, Konz or Upshaw.
I wouldn't mind Hill or Adams either.

[bmorecareful]

I guess this is where I differ. It's been pointed out that Upshaw isn't a dominant sack artist, like Suggs coming out of college, or he'd be a top ten pick. He is a solid player, no doubt, but it's not like he hugely upgrades the pass rush talent at the Sam linebacker spot. I believe Kruger and Kindle probably represent as much talent pass-rush-wise as Upshaw does. Kruger is a second round pick, and Kindle was a second rounder who would have been a first if not for character and injury questions. And McPhee certainly looks promising as a guy who teams have to deal with opposite Suggs. So I'm not sure I see the big deficiency.

The situation at Sam linebacker, with Johnson leaving, reminds me of last season when they let Todd Heap go. People assumed there would be issues at tight end, but in fact, we didn't miss Todd at all, and the young players, Dickson and Pitta, were a strength. I think Kruger and Kindle could turn out the same way stepping in for JJ.

Now compare that to what the Ravens have on the inside. You have all-world Ray Lewis, coming into his 17th season. Great leader, but limited time left, and he can't really drop into coverage anymore. Next to him you have an undrafted free agent in McClain who is solid, but I don't see the upside on him that I see on some of the OLB options. Behind him are Ellerbe, McClellan, and Ayenbadjo. Frankly, of that group, I'm most intrigued by McClellan. But I'd say if I were looking for deficiencies on the team, I'd point to the interior linebacking and interior offensive line spots.

Everything you've said is true. But the Ravens don't draft for need. For 16 years they have consistently drafted the best player available. That is how you maximize the talent level of a team and stay in contention. Upshaw is a more talented player than the other 4 you mentioned and of those 5, is the BPA at #29. Maybe Ozzie's board looks different from mine, but Upshaw looks like an Ozzie pick. Dominant SEC player who ruled the world on tape but might fall in the draft because of reasons unrelated to his ability to play football. Ozzie salivates over prospects like that.

As for pass rush depth, first of all Kruger is a FA after this year. Kindle is a nonfactor who is probably 50/50 to even make the team next year. McPhee plays DE/DT, not DE/OLB so he's not relevant to this discussion. Is our depth at OLB really that good? I submit it is not. Even if you have an embarrassment of riches at OLB, you can never have enough pass rushers and who's to say the team won't find a way to give Kruger and Upshaw both playing time in 2012? The Giants won the SB last year in large part because they were deep at pass rusher and found ways to use that depth to win.

I assure you, the areas in which this team is deficient can be addressed without reaching for inferior prospects and watering down the overall talent level of your draft.

[Rxdoxx]

The Saints had Bushrod and Stinchcomb at tackles their yr which both werent known for stout pass protection but played solid enough for Brees to get the ball to their weapons.

Just a quick note on this comment. You are absolutely correct, but what a lot of people don't realize is how the Saints are built.
Brees absolutely needs to be able to step into his throws if the team is going to be successful, so the emphasis of their O-line is to hold the center and keep the pocket from collapsing. So yes, "average tackles" but Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans are/were considered the game's two top guards, and when Nicks exited they went after Grubbs in a NY minute.
I'm not argueing the point you are making, just tweaking it because the Saints are a different philosophy.

We got spoiled here by J.O. and in a very real sense he defined our offense close to Ray's on defense. We have to be able to protect Joe long enough for Torry's speed to be a factor, and sadly I can't see Adams as our answer as a 1st.

[Shas]

Everything you've said is true. But the Ravens don't draft for need. For 16 years they have consistently drafted the best player available. That is how you maximize the talent level of a team and stay in contention. Upshaw is a more talented player than the other 4 you mentioned and of those 5, is the BPA at #29. Maybe Ozzie's board looks different from mine, but Upshaw looks like an Ozzie pick. Dominant SEC player who ruled the world on tape but might fall in the draft because of reasons unrelated to his ability to play football. Ozzie salivates over prospects like that.

As for pass rush depth, first of all Kruger is a FA after this year. Kindle is a nonfactor who is probably 50/50 to even make the team next year. McPhee plays DE/DT, not DE/OLB so he's not relevant to this discussion. Is our depth at OLB really that good? I submit it is not. Even if you have an embarrassment of riches at OLB, you can never have enough pass rushers and who's to say the team won't find a way to give Kruger and Upshaw both playing time in 2012? The Giants won the SB last year in large part because they were deep at pass rusher and found ways to use that depth to win.

I assure you, the areas in which this team is deficient can be addressed without reaching for inferior prospects and watering down the overall talent level of your draft.

Yeah, they don't draft for need, but you did bring up the main reason to draft Upshaw was that he addresses a deficiency. So I merely jumped in to say if we are evaluating deficiencies, I'm not sure that pass rushing isn't on par or more urgent a deficiency than ILB. Ray is about done, we all know he'll need to be replaced. Ellerbe is on a rental contract. McClain re-upped, but I'm a little less bullish on his talents. So I was merely pointing out that these guys are no more talented or long term than the guys who could play the Sam spot. And I'm not ready to write of Kindle, either.

Regardless, as you said, they don't draft on need. Well, not exactly. They do most definitely rate players based on need. Players like Hightower or Upshaw always get bumped up or down their board depending on what the need is in a given year.

And so, I would contend that whatever bump up an OLB gets this year, an ILB gets the same bump.

Lastly, McPhee is most certainly relevant to any discussion about the need to generate a pass rush opposite Suggs. You said yourself that it's about generating a pass rush and your Giants example is a perfect example of how and why McPhee would fit into the overall assessment of where the Ravens are when it comes to pass rush ability. I like what Suggs, McPhee, and Kruger give them in this regard a lot more than I like what Ray and Jameel give them in terms of stopping the run, playing sideline to side line, and dropping into coverage. I rate that as a much greater deficiency than pass rush. Not to say I'm anti-Upsaw, or opposed to adding talent in that area...I'm only saying the need is not as great as it is on the inside.

If there were two hypothetical players -- a Sam LB and an ILB who objectively were identical in terms of skill -- I would opt for ILB, based on need. Which is sort of how the Ravens approach it when it comes to sorting out players of near-equal rankings. I gave Hightower the nod because I think he's as good at Upshaw and he plays a position I'm more concerned with adding talent to.

Perhaps we just differ in that assessment.

[jonboy79]

It's an interesting point.

The Ravens certainly have talked at length about a philosophy of using first round picks on players who touch the quarterback or the ball.

Logically, it makes sense. Think about the very best skill position players in the NFL...at quarterback, wide receiver, corner, rush end. There are a small handful of elite players and it quickly gets mediocre-to-bad from there. If you have a chance to pick a player who can be one of those elite players, you do it.

Compare that to the offensive line. Are there really just three or four elite centers or guards in the league who stand head and shoulders above the rest? I don't think the gap is as nearly as wide as it is for QB, or WR, or pass rusher.

History does show that you can draft a Marshal Yanda in the third round and have him play as well or better than a Ben Grubbs in the first. Not that Ben was a bad pick, but he didn't maximize the value of a first round pick in the same way that a skill player might. Same with Michael Oher.

So that's the question on a player like Konz. He would probably be fine, but he might not be the maximum value choice.

Question is whether there are any skill players who really might be there at 29. It may be another year when a safe pick is the best they can do. Maybe it's better to make a safe pick than using it on a player who falls way short of elite at a skill position.

While you are generally correct, and I generally agree with you, LT, is the one spot ont he OL that your statement doesn;t hold true for. The VAST majority of starting NFL LT's were drafted in the first 20 picks overall.
Jermon Bushrod, also mentioned in this thread, is terrible. He is one exception. He is an exception because of Drew Brees. The quickness with which he releases the ball and the manner in which the Saints protect make guards more important in their system. Jared veldheer's and Jared gaither's don't show up often. If you need a LT and one is there, you have no choice but to take them, period.


Oh and the ravens don't draft for need? HAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHah

what drafts have you watched? That's hilarious. they draft with need in mind jsut like every other team. If you don't think so then Brandon Weeden and Doug Martin would be first round targets when they are clearly not. They simply think of need in a different way then most fans. Some fans saw we had Todd Heap and thought we didn't have a need at the position but we drafted not 1 but 2, why, becuase it was a MAJOR need, becuase Heap was not long for this team, and similarly when he was drafted with Sharpe ont he team. They also don't reach for a position of need if they know someone will be available later(such as was the case with Dawan landry, a 5th rounder that started day 1 at a position of need).

BPA is a line. It's to make the draft picks feel good we got them, and the fans to feel better that we didn't miss out on a need.
Our biggest need isn't always addressed with the first pick, but that doesn't mean we don't draft for need.

In fact, not considering need when drafting is a bigger problem then drafting strictly for need.

[AirFlacco]

Konz and Hill will probably be the only 2 of the group still on the board.
So it's probably Konz. Ravens are bringing him in to interview. He could start
at Guard this year and move over to Center when Birk retires. Oz loves guys
that can play two positions. He's even played tackle.

Upshaw and Hightower will probably be taken by NE and Piss and Adams will
be gone. Everyone needs a LT. If Adams is there, Ozzie has his bookends
as DeeCosta would say.

[Shas]

While you are generally correct, and I generally agree with you, LT, is the one spot ont he OL that your statement doesn;t hold true for. The VAST majority of starting NFL LT's were drafted in the first 20 picks overall.
Jermon Bushrod, also mentioned in this thread, is terrible. He is one exception. He is an exception because of Drew Brees. The quickness with which he releases the ball and the manner in which the Saints protect make guards more important in their system. Jared veldheer's and Jared gaither's don't show up often. If you need a LT and one is there, you have no choice but to take them, period.


Oh and the ravens don't draft for need? HAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHah

what drafts have you watched? That's hilarious. they draft with need in mind jsut like every other team. If you don't think so then Brandon Weeden and Doug Martin would be first round targets when they are clearly not. They simply think of need in a different way then most fans. Some fans saw we had Todd Heap and thought we didn't have a need at the position but we drafted not 1 but 2, why, becuase it was a MAJOR need, becuase Heap was not long for this team, and similarly when he was drafted with Sharpe ont he team. They also don't reach for a position of need if they know someone will be available later(such as was the case with Dawan landry, a 5th rounder that started day 1 at a position of need).

BPA is a line. It's to make the draft picks feel good we got them, and the fans to feel better that we didn't miss out on a need.
Our biggest need isn't always addressed with the first pick, but that doesn't mean we don't draft for need.

In fact, not considering need when drafting is a bigger problem then drafting strictly for need.

You're right, left tackle is a premium spot and an exception to the idea that there is not a huge drop off in first round vs later round talent for offensive linemen?

Where did I say they don't draft for need?

If you have been tracking my comments, I've gone out of my way to explain that they very much take into account need when they rank players, and they push players higher in their rankings if they fill a need, and push players lower if it is not a need position.

That said, I don't see a left tackle who is a good value late in the first. Martin will be gone and I would be concerned about Adams in any round.

[Carey]

Just a quick note on this comment. You are absolutely correct, but what a lot of people don't realize is how the Saints are built.
Brees absolutely needs to be able to step into his throws if the team is going to be successful, so the emphasis of their O-line is to hold the center and keep the pocket from collapsing. So yes, "average tackles" but Carl Nicks and Jahri Evans are/were considered the game's two top guards, and when Nicks exited they went after Grubbs in a NY minute.
I'm not argueing the point you are making, just tweaking it because the Saints are a different philosophy.

We got spoiled here by J.O. and in a very real sense he defined our offense close to Ray's on defense. We have to be able to protect Joe long enough for Torry's speed to be a factor, and sadly I can't see Adams as our answer as a 1st.

Point taken, teams do identify what needs they need to spend high on and what needs they dont. I believe the Colts a few years back would always plug in different guards but kept their tackles the same and kept a really good blocking TE on the roster.

[jonboy79]

You're right, left tackle is a premium spot and an exception to the idea that there is not a huge drop off in first round vs later round talent for offensive linemen?

Where did I say they don't draft for need?

If you have been tracking my comments, I've gone out of my way to explain that they very much take into account need when they rank players, and they push players higher in their rankings if they fill a need, and push players lower if it is not a need position.

That said, I don't see a left tackle who is a good value late in the first. Martin will be gone and I would be concerned about Adams in any round.

Sorry I didn't make it as obvious as I could have that my post was split. The frist half was a response to you, the second half to those also in the thread talking about drafting for need. I agree with you there.

I'm worried about Adams as well, but no more then Oher and McKinnie... I'm not sure we will have a better opportunity to get a Lt then Adams at 29 this year. The only reason we have a shot are the things that worry us. If he didn't have red flags he'd be a top 10 like all other 'can't miss Lt's" like Robert Gallery and jason Smith. To me, Adams at least has the size and athleticism to be elite ont he left side, his problems are "hopefully" coachable.

[bmorecareful]

While you are generally correct, and I generally agree with you, LT, is the one spot ont he OL that your statement doesn;t hold true for. The VAST majority of starting NFL LT's were drafted in the first 20 picks overall.
Jermon Bushrod, also mentioned in this thread, is terrible. He is one exception. He is an exception because of Drew Brees. The quickness with which he releases the ball and the manner in which the Saints protect make guards more important in their system. Jared veldheer's and Jared gaither's don't show up often. If you need a LT and one is there, you have no choice but to take them, period.


Oh and the ravens don't draft for need? HAHHAHAHHAHAHHAHah

what drafts have you watched? That's hilarious. they draft with need in mind jsut like every other team. If you don't think so then Brandon Weeden and Doug Martin would be first round targets when they are clearly not. They simply think of need in a different way then most fans. Some fans saw we had Todd Heap and thought we didn't have a need at the position but we drafted not 1 but 2, why, becuase it was a MAJOR need, becuase Heap was not long for this team, and similarly when he was drafted with Sharpe ont he team. They also don't reach for a position of need if they know someone will be available later(such as was the case with Dawan landry, a 5th rounder that started day 1 at a position of need).

BPA is a line. It's to make the draft picks feel good we got them, and the fans to feel better that we didn't miss out on a need.
Our biggest need isn't always addressed with the first pick, but that doesn't mean we don't draft for need.

In fact, not considering need when drafting is a bigger problem then drafting strictly for need.

BPA isn't a "line." It's a legitimate strategy that dictates that you NEVER reach for a player to satisfy a need. It's actually really, really simple. In any given round, when your pick is up, you look at your big board of prospects, and you take the highest rated prospect available. That's BPA and that's what Ozzie does.

Positional value comes into play when you're trying to separate a few players who you have very close on your big board. There's no doubt that positional value (which to some degree implies need) comes into play with the construction of the board. But you stay true to your board, and sometimes that means skipping out on an area of perceived need. We have come out of the last 4 or 5 drafts with at least one big need unanswered by the draft because Ozzie stayed true to his board and took good players instead of needed players.

I think we actually agree more than you are making it seem, to be honest. Ozzie drafted 2 TEs in 2010 because they were the best players available at their picks. They did fit a long-term need, but that was perhaps serendipitous. Certainly they didn't fit an immediate need since Pitta did nothing in 2010 and Dickson didn't do much. But the same concept would apply to taking Upshaw now--he is a BPA candidate and fits a long-term need. By that definition every position except perhaps QB is a "need."

Trust me, if Ozzie sees that the clear BPA is at a position where we do not have a need, it won't stop him from taking them. We drafted Ray Rice in 2008 when we already had McGahee coming off a great season, and there are a ton more examples... we usually come out of every draft with at least one major need still unmet.

[jonboy79]

BPA isn't a "line." It's a legitimate strategy that dictates that you NEVER reach for a player to satisfy a need. It's actually really, really simple. In any given round, when your pick is up, you look at your big board of prospects, and you take the highest rated prospect available. That's BPA and that's what Ozzie does.

Positional value comes into play when you're trying to separate a few players who you have very close on your big board. There's no doubt that positional value (which to some degree implies need) comes into play with the construction of the board. But you stay true to your board, and sometimes that means skipping out on an area of perceived need. We have come out of the last 4 or 5 drafts with at least one big need unanswered by the draft because Ozzie stayed true to his board and took good players instead of needed players.

I think we actually agree more than you are making it seem, to be honest. Ozzie drafted 2 TEs in 2010 because they were the best players available at their picks. They did fit a long-term need, but that was perhaps serendipitous. Certainly they didn't fit an immediate need since Pitta did nothing in 2010 and Dickson didn't do much. But the same concept would apply to taking Upshaw now--he is a BPA candidate and fits a long-term need. By that definition every position except perhaps QB is a "need."

Trust me, if Ozzie sees that the clear BPA is at a position where we do not have a need, it won't stop him from taking them. We drafted Ray Rice in 2008 when we already had McGahee coming off a great season, and there are a ton more examples... we usually come out of every draft with at least one major need still unmet.

You are right that we aren't THAT far off.
gthe difference, is how much we feel Need is factored into their bigboard, and the chances they willstray from their big board for certain needs. Oz generally does what he can to fill holes prior to the draft, to make taking the BPA easier. Regardless, the first few picks have to be players he can envision seeing the field within 2-3 years, as a starter. To me, that means need. For example, I'd be surprised if our first couple of picks were at ANY position besides; LB(inside or out), OL, WR, S and maybe a 5 technique. In the later rounds, you will see more longtermish non-need prospects but you could also see a returner, a kicker, etc, which are also needs.
Positional value is also huge in their bigboard. that is, in a non-need way. As has been mentioned, players relating to the Qb and touching the ball are rated more highly due to the position they play. Again this is reflected on their bigboard, and then drafted upon.

And I agree, sometimes MAJOR needs are skipped when value doesn't allign, see CB in 2010, which necessitated the Josh Wilson trade, which worked out VERY WELL. So, yes, you are right that it is a bit more then a "line" but it is NOT cut and dry, best player available that some make it out to be. I would even say that it certainly seems to allow players to jump up and down the board independant of their grade. For example, tannehill is probably off our board entirely due to positional need. Or, he is a 3rd rounder at best, meanwhile MIA may take him top 10.

[HoustonRaven]

Maybe or maybe not BPA is a "line". I don't know.

What I do know is that phrase is an oversimplification of the strategy they employ when it comes to the draft. Yes, they target the BPA but they do so with value in mind. Specifically, they will (and have) moved up and down based on need and value.