Flacco Deal Update...

[wickedsolo]

Wanna know what kills me?

Last year, when Flacco's stats were among the best in the league, the usual suspects where all "but that doesn't mean anything, just look at him play".

Now when people are saying the stats don't tell the whole story, Flacco visibly played better, made more clutch plays, etc, those same people are saying "but his stats went down".

Those same people also bashed Flacco for not having good numbers in the playoffs. Now that over the last two years his rating is in the mid-upper 90's, they want to dismiss them.

There is no winning with these people, and quite frankly, I think most of us are getting tired of this stupid, idiotic debate. Look at what this thread, that started out as something informative, has turned into.

Great post and completely true.

[Paintballguy]

Flacco had a great season last year...what the hell are you guys talking about? And he did it with a cast of rookie and 2nd year receivers (who probably led the league in dropped passes). He is going to get $100 million...and he is worth it.

Agreed. He was a Lee Evans drop away from taking the Ravens to the Superbowl. I'm excited for this season to see what the Flacco-Smith connection can do with a year under their belts working together.

[wickedsolo]

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger et al also had drops. Please don't start playing the coulda woulda shouda game. Flacco is entering his 5th year. He is who he is. Enough with the excuses.

Are you insinuating that players can't get better each year?

Or, are you pretty much claiming that players only have a "4 or 5 year window to become what they are".


I also like how you include Rodgers and Roethlisberger in this convo when Rodgers had a top 5 defense when the Packers won the Super Bowl and Roethlisberger has had a top 5 defense every year he's been in the league...yet you're one of the posters who are so quick to claim that the Ravens defense is REALLY the reason why the Ravens win and are constantly bailing Joe out.

[arnie_uk]

its not an excuse, its a clear flaw in his arguement taking QB rating as the be all and end all

Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger et al also had drops. Please don't start playing the coulda woulda shouda game. Flacco is entering his 5th year. He is who he is. Enough with the excuses.

[JAB1985]

Rivers' year before he got his extension was off-the-charts good. Totally different than Flacco's last year. I am not saying Flacco isn't as good as Rivers (though I probably would). And I am definitely not saying Flacco cannot become better than Rivers will ever be. All I am saying is at the time the contracts were negotiated, Rivers was by FAR more able to argue for big money.

Rivers signed in August of 2009. His 2008 season consisted of a 105.5 QB rating (best in league by 8 pts), 34 TDs (tied for best in league with Brees), 11 Ints only (6 less than Brees), 4009 yards (5th in league BUT he had way less attempts than those ahead of him such that his YPA was significantly the best in league at 8.39). In short, Rivers could easily argue he was the best QB in the league in 2008; even if he might not quite win that argument, it wouldn't be a stretch to claim that by any means. And since we all agree that you pay people for their trajectory as much as anything, his huge deal was easy to rationalize. Age also isn't relevant to the comparison because Rivers was roughly the same age as Joe is now when he signed; he had played one extra year in the league but came out 1 year earlier than Joe.

As for BigBen, he signed his 'big' deal in March of 2008. He also had a ring at that point and his stats for the 2007 season, were: QB rating 104.1 (2nd behind Brady), 32 TDs (3rd in league), 'only' 3154 yards, but only 404 attempts, gving him a YPA of 7.81 (4th in the league). He also made the ProBowl. And also the deal was 8 yrs for 'only' $102M, less than $13M per.

As for total 'career' statistics, I would say that they matter less than the trend/trajectory. And more importantly, passing stats have been going up across the league and completely spiked last year, making it harder to compare year to year totals without some kind of adjustment.

Eli's big-money extension was signed in the preseason of 2009. If Eli had not won a SuperBowl in 2007 and then followed it up with a significantly improved year statistically (to his fairly mundane stats from 2003-2007) I don't think he gets anywhere near that extension. Eli is the one that is closest to Flacco in terms of performance in the contract year. Eli's year was better but not by a ton, but more importantly it was better than the year before (he improved). And again he had a SB title and SB MVP under his belt.

While we can agree or disagree about how Flacco's stats are harmed by forces outside his control, the fact remains, he is not coming into the negotiations with as much leverage as these other three were when they signed their deals. QB rating ranking around 15th-18th depending on who you include, TDs tied for 13th, yardage ranked 12th, YPA ranked a pitiful 24th. That doesn't mean he doesn't have leverage obviously, I would just say that it isn't some kind of 'given' that he deserves deals similar to the deals these three signed.

As for inflation, I hear you and agree, though the salary cap in 2009 was $123M, roughly the same as it will be this year (and maybe next). Also, as has been said, the guaranteed money (and structure/details) is really as crucial as the total and yearly average.

i completely agree that he doesnt have as much leverage as he would have had, even the year before. I do think the team realizes those outside factors but obviously are going to use that for their benefit, making now the best time to sign him rather than waiting a year when, in a reality his stats will probably go back up closer to his previous trajectory and give him more leverage. I think with everything said hes still going to end up getting in that 6-7 for 85-100 with 35-40 guaranteed range simply because thats what its going to take to sign him and they have to.

Wanna know what kills me?

Last year, when Flacco's stats were among the best in the league, the usual suspects where all "but that doesn't mean anything, just look at him play".

Now when people are saying the stats don't tell the whole story, Flacco visibly played better, made more clutch plays, etc, those same people are saying "but his stats went down".

Those same people also bashed Flacco for not having good numbers in the playoffs. Now that over the last two years his rating is in the mid-upper 90's, they want to dismiss them.

There is no winning with these people, and quite frankly, I think most of us are getting tired of this stupid, idiotic debate. Look at what this thread, that started out as something informative, has turned into.

I agree with this as well. A lot of people just have their mind made up about Flacco and there is no reasoning with them. theyll use whatever they can cling to try to support their hatred. I feel some of these guys are the ones still crying about Troy Smith as well... where is he again?

[srobert96]

The only difference between Eli and Joe at this point in their careers is that Eli had receivers catching balls off their helmets and Joe has receivers dropping passes in their arms.

The defense has not bailed Joe out. The defense has held the offense back. The mentality of the Ravens is for the offense to not lose the game. The game plans are ultra conservative. The Oline can't run block of pass block. Rice is supposedly this great back yet the Ravens are only a mediocre running team. Middle of the road in total yards and yards per carry. The oline is poorly coached. We are one of the few remaining teams that use a full back and only go from the shotgun on obvious passing situations. This offense would turn Tom Brady and Aaron Rogers into mediocre QBs. Joe and Ray would be infinitely more successful in the Ravens opened up the offense. Ray Rice is the ideal back for a more spread offense yet the Ravens utilize him as if he is Jerome Bettis. And yet the Ravens can't even pick up short yardage when necessary. The running game and Rice disappeared in the playoffs. It was not until Cam opened it up against the Pats that they had any success. The Oline could not run block or pass block against Houston.

The Ravens offense is where good QBs go to die. Joe should be hoping to go to a team with a real OC and offensive philosophy.

[pslholder96]

Are you insinuating that players can't get better each year?

Or, are you pretty much claiming that players only have a "4 or 5 year window to become what they are".


I also like how you include Rodgers and Roethlisberger in this convo when Rodgers had a top 5 defense when the Packers won the Super Bowl and Roethlisberger has had a top 5 defense every year he's been in the league...yet you're one of the posters who are so quick to claim that the Ravens defense is REALLY the reason why the Ravens win and are constantly bailing Joe out.

[Terpsfan82]

Are you insinuating that players can't get better each year?

Or, are you pretty much claiming that players only have a "4 or 5 year window to become what they are".


I also like how you include Rodgers and Roethlisberger in this convo when Rodgers had a top 5 defense when the Packers won the Super Bowl and Roethlisberger has had a top 5 defense every year he's been in the league...yet you're one of the posters who are so quick to claim that the Ravens defense is REALLY the reason why the Ravens win and are constantly bailing Joe out.

Any player entering his 5th year is pretty much who he's going to be. Especially given the fact that he's started every game and has additional starts in the post season. Flacco will never be Rodgers, Brady or Brees or Roethlisberger for that matter. But that's not an indictment. Those are very very talented quarterbacks. Flacco can win a Superbowl if they continue to build around him. And to answer your second question, Rodgers and Roethlisberger rode those great defenses to championships. Flacco hasn't yet.

[wickedsolo]

Any player entering his 5th year is pretty much who he's going to be. Especially given the fact that he's started every game and has additional starts in the post season. Flacco will never be Rodgers, Brady or Brees or Roethlisberger for that matter. But that's not an indictment. Those are very very talented quarterbacks. Flacco can win a Superbowl if they continue to build around him. And to answer your second question, Rodgers and Roethlisberger rode those great defenses to championships. Flacco hasn't yet.

Well damn, I guess someone should let Brees in on that little tidbit because entering his 5th season he was coming off a 3100 yard season! How dare he go to New Orleans and get better each year...he's completely ruining your claim there man. Same with Roethlisberger. Heading into his 5th season he was coming off of a 3100 yard season. The past 3 seasons Roethlisberger has averaged over 3800 yards per season including two over 4000 yard seasons.

The point is, players can get better and the QB is one of the only positions in the NFL where your peak years don't normally come until your late 20's and early 30's.

[JAB1985]

Well damn, I guess someone should let Brees in on that little tidbit because entering his 5th season he was coming off a 3100 yard season! How dare he go to New Orleans and get better each year...he's completely ruining your claim there man. Same with Roethlisberger. Heading into his 5th season he was coming off of a 3100 yard season. The past 3 seasons Roethlisberger has averaged over 3800 yards per season including two over 4000 yard seasons.

The point is, players can get better and the QB is one of the only positions in the NFL where your peak years don't normally come until your late 20's and early 30's.

Too add to that sentiment.

48.2% 1043
52.8% 3,762
57.7% 3,244
56.1% 3336
60.3% 3238

Eli Manning's first 5 years. took him 5 years just to get to 60%. the following 3...

62.3% 4021
62.9% 4002
61% 4933

If you think Joe is what he is now and will never get better, i think Eli is the most comparable player to him (as well as the Giants as a whole, good defense, good OL) and quite frankly we never had the receiving corps he did, which says a lot about joes future.

[Terpsfan82]

Well damn, I guess someone should let Brees in on that little tidbit because entering his 5th season he was coming off a 3100 yard season! How dare he go to New Orleans and get better each year...he's completely ruining your claim there man. Same with Roethlisberger. Heading into his 5th season he was coming off of a 3100 yard season. The past 3 seasons Roethlisberger has averaged over 3800 yards per season including two over 4000 yard seasons.

The point is, players can get better and the QB is one of the only positions in the NFL where your peak years don't normally come until your late 20's and early 30's.

Fair enough. Although Brees changed teams, schemes, and offensive coordinators. Roethlisberger's evolvement came about as he was given more control over the offense, same as Eli. Can you honestly say that Flacco is going to be given more control with Cam around?

[srobert96]

Fair enough. Although Brees changed teams, schemes, and offensive coordinators. Roethlisberger's evolvement came about as he was given more control over the offense, same as Eli. Can you honestly say that Flacco is going to be given more control with Cam around?

Your final line says it all. The issue is not Flacco but rather the OC and the offensive philosophy. If the Ravens were to modernize the offense I believe you would see his stats take off. Flacco is the most important player to the long term success of the Franchise. The sooner they start building around him both from a player and a coach standpoint the better. Oline does not block and the wrs do not get open. How do these coaches on the offensive side of the ball keep their jobs?

[GOTA]

Your final line says it all. The issue is not Flacco but rather the OC and the offensive philosophy. If the Ravens were to modernize the offense I believe you would see his stats take off. Flacco is the most important player to the long term success of the Franchise. The sooner they start building around him both from a player and a coach standpoint the better. Oline does not block and the wrs do not get open. How do these coaches on the offensive side of the ball keep their jobs?

That's the question everyone should be asking.

[Ravenous1]

I dont know what you watched, but Flacco had a pretty shitty season last year, even to his standards which already arent very high.

Flacco has always had the benefit of a ridiculously good defense to bail him out.

And that absolutely should reflect in his contract.

Really??? So Joe should pay for the fact that in a year with no OTA's the Ravens gave Joe one receiver to throw to who had any significant NFL catches (Boldin), a washed up vet (Evans) and a some rookies. Give me one other even decent QB who had less to work with and made more out of it. Lets get real here, it was not until towards end of the year that Torrey Smith became more than a burner who Joe threw really far and he out ran the defense to the ball. Considering what he was given to work with and the fact he had an OC who was oblivious to it and insisted on throwing the ball continuously to receivers who could not get separation, I think he did a pretty damn good job overall.

Treat your franchise QB that way and lowball him and that's a good way to be the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Redskins etc wandering around looking for a QB who can play. It just seems like some people think the only definition of a QB worth keeping is if they are a Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady etc. Those guys took some time to grow also they went through there bumps and bruises as well. Flacco compares favorably over his first 4yrs to those type guys. Not saying he is as good or ever will be as them, just saying he compares well enough that your highly unlikely to get a guy anytime soon who will play as well if you lose him. Your far more likely to become one of the lost in the desert teams at QB like the Browns, Seahawks, Redskins, Dolphins, Bills, and the Ravens prior to Flacco's arrival. He is a valuable commodity (far more so than Rice) and will be expensive to keep but worth every dime

[festivus]

Well damn, I guess someone should let Brees in on that little tidbit because entering his 5th season he was coming off a 3100 yard season! How dare he go to New Orleans and get better each year...he's completely ruining your claim there man. Same with Roethlisberger. Heading into his 5th season he was coming off of a 3100 yard season. The past 3 seasons Roethlisberger has averaged over 3800 yards per season including two over 4000 yard seasons.

The point is, players can get better and the QB is one of the only positions in the NFL where your peak years don't normally come until your late 20's and early 30's.

Fair enough. Although Brees changed teams, schemes, and offensive coordinators. Roethlisberger's evolvement came about as he was given more control over the offense, same as Eli. Can you honestly say that Flacco is going to be given more control with Cam around?

Who says Cam is staying around?

Just
white+flag.jpg
like a man and be done with it.

Plenty of good young QBs have gotten better at Joe's age and plenty of good young QBs besides Joe have been complemented by elite defenses.

Move on...

[Ravenous1]

I dont know what you watched, but Flacco had a pretty shitty season last year, even to his standards which already arent very high.

Flacco has always had the benefit of a ridiculously good defense to bail him out.

And that absolutely should reflect in his contract.

Really??? So Joe should pay for the fact that in a year with no OTA's the Ravens gave Joe one receiver to throw to who had any significant NFL catches (Boldin), a washed up vet (Evans) and a some rookies. Give me one other even decent QB who had less to work with and made more out of it. Lets get real here, it was not until towards end of the year that Torrey Smith became more than a burner who Joe threw really far and he out ran the defense to the ball. Considering what he was given to work with and the fact he had an OC who was oblivious to it and insisted on throwing the ball continuously to receivers who could not get separation, I think he did a pretty damn good job overall.

Treat your franchise QB that way and lowball him and that's a good way to be the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, Redskins etc wandering around looking for a QB who can play. It just seems like some people think the only definition of a QB worth keeping is if they are a Rodgers, Manning, Brees, Brady etc. Those guys took some time to grow also they went through there bumps and bruises as well. Flacco compares favorably over his first 4yrs to those type guys. Not saying he is as good or ever will be as them, just saying he compares well enough that your highly unlikely to get a guy anytime soon who will play as well if you lose him. Your far more likely to become one of the lost in the desert teams at QB like the Browns, Seahawks, Redskins, Dolphins, Bills, and the Ravens prior to Flacco's arrival. He is a valuable commodity (far more so than Rice) and will be expensive to keep but worth every dime

[NCRAVEN]

I've gone through 5, 6...7 pages and can't find an update like the title suggest.

Was this a ploy to start a debate about how good Joe is or isn't? I can go to the Joe Comments thread for that.

Does anyone have an actual update on this?

[festivus]

I've gone through 5, 6...7 pages and can't find an update like the title suggest.

Was this a ploy to start a debate about how good Joe is or isn't?

It was a very elaborate rickroll, sucker!

Every time this idiotic thread gets bumped, I wonder if there's news in it. Sadly, not yet.

[Haloti92]

Great post and completely true.

It may be true, but it isn't really damning. Also the reverse is true (people bleating "look at his stats" to defend him last year, while claiming they are meaningless this year).

It again comes down to people having different eye tests. The poster you agreed with assumes Flacco played better last year using his eye test, others disagree. I happen to believe Flacco visibly improved last year in some aspects, but not all. I also think he was asked to do more. I don't think it was the case that he was initially (in 2008) given 100% of the offensive possibilities/responsibilities/playbook and asked to learn them all and has since been slowly ticking off things from the list as 'learned.' I think it is more accurate to say they are piecing out the material (over years), and as he gets some stuff down (or gets the supporting players required), they expand and add new stuff, reads that are riskier, harder, or that need to be made quicker, etc. So in any given year it is possible both to say he improved in areas X, but overall his stats/performance as a whole may not have been 'better' in some people's opinions.

As for 2010's stats, they were good, but it was one year. And to claim that people that were hesitant to accept that they meant Joe had reached a level from which he could never go back is unreasonable. Look at Josh Freeman's stats or Matt Cassel's stats in 2010 (or even Vick's); were they anomalous, who knows for sure, but there was a significant drop in one year's time.

My opinion is that in 2010, Joe's stats looked a bit better than his eye test, and his stats in 2011 look at lot worse than his eye test. Such is the nature of "stats." There will never be any consensus on eye tests, and it will always be impossible to convince someone that their eye test is incorrect. The only possible way to do it is with some kind of objective, or mutually agreed to measuring device, which we don't have. The closest we have is stats, and it isn't very close; we all know they are unreliable enough, even if they have some value, that both sides can 'use' them, with enough finessing, to support their opinions or views (eye tests).

[wickedsolo]

I've gone through 5, 6...7 pages and can't find an update like the title suggest.

Was this a ploy to start a debate about how good Joe is or isn't? I can go to the Joe Comments thread for that.

Does anyone have an actual update on this?

Actually I tossed up a link a few pages back that said contrary to previous reports from PFT, Joe's agent (Joe Linta) and the Ravens brass have met at least twice face-to-face on Flacco's contract.