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  1. #85

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...



    Quote Originally Posted by redmike34 View Post
    I just don't see it. Again, no question Flacco has been the QB for a lot of games won by the Ravens... but that happened as a result of not only him.

    Flacco had a QB rating of 80.9 last year, which put him 18th in the league. Admittedly, QB rating isn't the be-all-end-all, but it does serve as a measure of efficiency that does have some correlation to winning games. So... the Ravens were capable of winning 12 games last year with a QB rating of 80.9. How many more games do they win if it's 90? What's a QB rating of 80 worth? What's the record of other teams who had a QB rating of ~80? Newton 84.5 rating/6 wins, Hasselbeck: 82.4/9, Dalton 80.4/9, Jackson 79.2/7, Fitzpatrick 79.1/6, Sanchez 78.2/8... That works out to an average of 7.5 wins, and a standard deviation of 1.37. So the Ravens got more than three standard deviations more wins than other teams with similar QB play.... that's a pretty FAR outlier. The big difference is the team with 12 wins also had the 3rd-ranked scoring defense... IMO.

    I don't think Flacco gets any kind of a mega-deal from anyone else based on his body of work so far. That's why I'd be willing, were I the Ravens front office, to see what 2012 brings. If Flacco improves, great--it may cost more money, but it could also be a good problem to have. If he doesn't... well, it's frankly not that hard to find QBs who can average a rating of 80 for the year.
    Oh Really??..We were struggling to find a franchise type QB for 12 years before Joe came along.




  2. #86

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by BcRaven View Post
    I think your post is so far off, I don't even know where to begin. If you believe posting averages/standard deviations will decrease Joe's value then I strongly disagree. AND if you think it's easy to find a QB like him (" it's frankly not that hard to find QBs who can average a rating of 80 for the year") then you're so beguiled by numbers that you've lost sight of the most important ones...WINS and LOSSES. IMO FLacco is a winner, and if you believe it would be easy to replace him, then we are at opposite ends of the QB spectrum... Bc
    Flacco doesn't win or lose games... the Baltimore Ravens do. If you think that Joe Flacco is more responsible for the 44 regular season wins over the last four years, when by any statistical measure he's performed as an average-to-slightly-above-average QB over that time, than the defense which has been top-three in the league in scoring defense over that time, then I think you're deluding yourself. Pair the Ravens offense of the last four years with, say, the Cleveland Browns defense, and those 44 wins get cut in half. At least.

    Stats are not the be-all-end-all, but they exist for several reasons, and within their context they describe reality pretty well. That's why every human endeavor, football included, makes use of them so as to improve human performance. What I showed you was that the number of wins the Ravens got last year is FAR out of proportion to the statistical quality of play they got from the QB position. Let's look at it from the other way--what was the average QB rating of teams that got 12+ wins last year? Rodgers 122.5, Brees 110.6, Brady 105.6, Smith 90.7, Roethlis 90.1. See a pattern?

    I'm 100% on board with evaluation on the basis of wins and losses... it helps to have an accurate analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the team that lead to those wins and losses. By any measure, the Ravens defense is a better unit than the offense is. I believe that has a lot more to do with the number of W/L over the last four years than the fact that Joe Flacco has been the QB for those years.

    I don't see a single thing in your post that makes me believe Flacco is the reason the Ravens are in the playoffs every year. I'm showing you hard numbers which reasonably indicate that it's probably more because of the defense than because of Flacco, or anyone on the offensive side of the ball.




  3. #87

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by pslholder96 View Post
    Oh Really??..We were struggling to find a franchise type QB for 12 years before Joe came along.
    Haha. Well, look on the bright side--you could be a Bears fan. Their all-time leading passer is Sid Luckman, who last played in an NFL game in 1950...




  4. #88

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by redmike34 View Post
    Flacco doesn't win or lose games... the Baltimore Ravens do. If you think that Joe Flacco is more responsible for the 44 regular season wins over the last four years, when by any statistical measure he's performed as an average-to-slightly-above-average QB over that time, than the defense which has been top-three in the league in scoring defense over that time, then I think you're deluding yourself. Pair the Ravens offense of the last four years with, say, the Cleveland Browns defense, and those 44 wins get cut in half. At least.

    Stats are not the be-all-end-all, but they exist for several reasons, and within their context they describe reality pretty well. That's why every human endeavor, football included, makes use of them so as to improve human performance. What I showed you was that the number of wins the Ravens got last year is FAR out of proportion to the statistical quality of play they got from the QB position. Let's look at it from the other way--what was the average QB rating of teams that got 12+ wins last year? Rodgers 122.5, Brees 110.6, Brady 105.6, Smith 90.7, Roethlis 90.1. See a pattern?

    I'm 100% on board with evaluation on the basis of wins and losses... it helps to have an accurate analysis of the strengths and weaknesses of the team that lead to those wins and losses. By any measure, the Ravens defense is a better unit than the offense is. I believe that has a lot more to do with the number of W/L over the last four years than the fact that Joe Flacco has been the QB for those years.

    I don't see a single thing in your post that makes me believe Flacco is the reason the Ravens are in the playoffs every year. I'm showing you hard numbers which reasonably indicate that it's probably more because of the defense than because of Flacco, or anyone on the offensive side of the ball.
    And joe flacco was the 13t highest rated in 2009 and 7th highest in 2010 and then fell off this year adter all of his top recievers were gone. Hes basically supporting your evidence that good qbs make the playoffs. Despite a down statistical year hes still a good qb and history supports that as well as the ravens record/consistency. The ravens dont make the playoffs without him and he doesnt without the rest of the team but qb being the most important position he has a large part in that success.
    -JAB




  5. #89

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by pickles View Post
    What don't we get? Your opinion? We get it, becuase you've been very forthright w it. What you don't seem to get is that it is just that: Your opinion. It isn't a fact.

    Now, I'm not saying you pay Rice whatever he wants. Personally, I think a deal in the Foster range, even if it exceeds it by a bit, is fine. An AP or CJ contract is not. However, the idea that we'd somehow be BETTER off w/o Rice, is downright absurd imo.

    This offense has ran through RR for three years now. Flacco struggled imo to adjust w/o Mason and Heap, which is why his numbers were down this year; it would be far worse w/o Rice. I think RR masks alot of Flacco's and the offenses'
    shortcomings.








    Now, for all the he can't get the 4th-1 talk, he set a franchise record last year for rushing tds, so a few high-profile failures in the playoffs, against D-Lines which were owning our OL, doesn't negate that fact.
    Most of his TD's where longer runs. One thing to remember the Ravens made the AFCC game 4 years ago and Rice was our 3rd leading rusher behind Mcgahee and MCClain. Rice can't get 3rd and short for TD's or first downs consistently everyone knows that.




  6. #90

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by JAB1985 View Post
    And joe flacco was the 13t highest rated in 2009 and 7th highest in 2010 and then fell off this year adter all of his top recievers were gone. Hes basically supporting your evidence that good qbs make the playoffs. Despite a down statistical year hes still a good qb and history supports that as well as the ravens record/consistency. The ravens dont make the playoffs without him and he doesnt without the rest of the team but qb being the most important position he has a large part in that success.
    I'm not putting up any evidence that good QBs make the playoffs... at least, such was not my intent. Judging by Tebow, it's apparent that bad QBs make the playoffs as well, though perhaps less frequently.

    Look--I'm not hating on Flacco. I hope he passes for a zillion yards next year, wins the Super Bowl in a blowout and has the Swedish bikini team fall in love with him. I am not, however, going to be blind to the fact that last year was not as good as it should have been. And if I were the Ravens front office, I'd make damn sure last year was an aberration before I committed a lot of money to him.




  7. #91

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by Boulderraven View Post
    Most of his TD's where longer runs.
    Oh, I didn't know that somehow negated them. Foolishly, I thought that made them more valuable.



    One thing to remember the Ravens made the AFCC game 4 years ago and Rice was our 3rd leading rusher behind Mcgahee and MCClain.
    Yeah, and A) He still had a better YPC average than either of them, and B) It's amazing to think that he might have improved from his rookie year, but it's possible.


    ce can't get 3rd and short for TD's or first downs consistently everyone knows that.
    Oh does "everyone?"

    I remember when everyone knew that John Elway couldn't win the big one.

    I remember when everyone knew that Vernon Davis was a head-case bust.

    I remember when we didn't make political statements in the football forums.

    In my experience, everyone doesn't know shit.
    Last edited by StingerNLG; 04-08-2012 at 07:36 PM.




  8. #92

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by redmike34 View Post
    I'm not putting up any evidence that good QBs make the playoffs... at least, such was not my intent. Judging by Tebow, it's apparent that bad QBs make the playoffs as well, though perhaps less frequently.

    Perhaps? Do you really need to modify that statement?

    Of course, bad QBs make the playoffs less frequently. The same goes for bad teams. But it doesn't give much insight into Flacco though.




  9. #93

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by pickles View Post

    Now, I'm not saying you pay Rice whatever he wants. Personally, I think a deal in the Foster range, even if it exceeds it by a bit, is fine. An AP or CJ contract is not. However, the idea that we'd somehow be BETTER off w/o Rice, is downright absurd imo.




  10. #94
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    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by pickles View Post
    Oh, I didn't know that somehow negated them. Foolishly, I thought that made them more valuable.





    Yeah, and A) He still had a better YPC average than either of them, and B) It's amazing to think that he might have improved from his rookie year, but it's possible.




    Oh does "everyone?"

    I remember when everyone knew that John Elway couldn't win the big one.

    I remember when everyone knew that Vernon Davis was a head-case bust.

    I remember when everyone knew that Iraq was responsible for 9-11.

    In my experience, everyone doesn't know shit.
    Don't waste your time on him, he is impossible, he just has some passionate hatred towards Rice lol




  11. #95

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by pickles View Post
    Oh, I didn't know that somehow negated them. Foolishly, I thought that made them more valuable.





    Yeah, and A) He still had a better YPC average than either of them, and B) It's amazing to think that he might have improved from his rookie year, but it's possible.




    Oh does "everyone?"

    I remember when everyone knew that John Elway couldn't win the big one.

    I remember when everyone knew that Vernon Davis was a head-case bust.

    I remember when everyone knew that Iraq was responsible for 9-11.

    In my experience, everyone doesn't know shit.
    Sucks when the know it alls are wrong. Still Wacco for Flacco!




  12. #96

    Re: Flacco Deal Update...

    Quote Originally Posted by ravensnhokies View Post
    Signing Flacco longterm is 10X more important than inking Rice.

    Rice is maybe the best receiving back in the league. He is the beneficiary of being in Cam's offense where he is main short/checkdown option with all our WRs running deep routes (and not adept at getting open, I might add). That's why Ray gets a lot of balsl thrown his way, and he is pretty damn good in space.

    Running the ball.... I'm not as up as many of you are on Rice's production. Last year, I think he left far too many yards on field with Leach opening up a hole, and Rice not following his path of destruction. Sure Rice broke a lot of big ones, but he sure had a bunch of 2yd gains that should have been 5-7yds if hit the hole right. Its like he was a Home Run hitter.... Got the Home Runs (1 Sometimes 2 20yd+ gains/game), but struck out a lot (too many 1 or 2 yd gains). He has to hit more singles (5yders) and doubles (10yders) next year.

    So what does that mean.... Pretty simple--- a deal equivalent to Foster (who is a better rushing RB, but not quite Rice's caliber in passing game). Rice's agent is asking too much if the Ravens are offering a similar deal. We can't break the bank and be stupid. Honestly, its about time Cam's offense scheme gets with the times and have our WRs become the focus of the passing game. If that finally happens, a great receiving RB is not as important. I'd rather allocate more dough to the WR position, than breaking the bank to keep Rice.
    The fact that our receivers never getting open isnt their fault. Its because cams playbook is shit. No creative routes, no ability for the receivers to get open, he has a controlling mindset that means the players do what he wants them to do.

    4 years, +10 different receivers, same results. Only thing consistent has been cam.




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